Glimmer of Hope: Schafer
by ntn on Oct 13, 2011 11:22 PM CDT
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PrintOk, this one is harder. I really have to squeeze my optimism glands as I drink my corn whiskey because I'm not a big Jordan Schafer fan. But I realize that this off season I have to work extra hard to love my Astros because, as you all know, they were THAT bad. Jordan Schafer has big shoes to fill...or at least some very fast ones (I don't know how big Bourn's feet are). Michael Bourn was the best center fielder the Astros have had for as long as I can remember... wait maybe since Finley...no Beltran. He was fast enough to track down damn near everything that made it over the pitcher's head and was pretty much a lock to win the NL stolen-base title. He may not have been Willie Mays with the bat, but he didn't embarrass himself either. Even if I stay on the sunny side when thinking about Schafer, I will still miss Bourn.
Schafer, of course, recently made the news by getting caught smoking marijuana while driving. I don't really care too much about that although driving is not the best time to do anything (smoking something, shooting something, reading something, texting something, drinking something, banging something). I care more about the fact that he hasn't been a very good player in the majors. Wait, I'm staying positive...Jordan Schafer is fast. Not Bourn fast, but then again no one is Bourn fast. I don't hope for too much power from Schafer at this point. He had some power in the minors but hasn't had much after his suspension and injuries. How do I phrase this? I won't be disappointed if he hits between 2 and 6 homers.
However, I have hope that the Astros will get a positive contribution from him...but mostly from his glove. So far the stats websites (fangraphs and baseball-reference) don't rate him very highly, but then they don't rate him embarrassingly bad either (fangraphs does rate him better than Bourn this season). When I saw him play he looked pretty good in center, so I have hope that with more continuous playing time Schafer can become a good defender in center and maybe hit something like .250/.325/.330 with 20-30 steals...ugh... essentially Austin Jackson. The bad thing (as if his hitting ability wasn't enough of a bad thing) is that his speed will get him into the lead-off spot when his OBP says he should be batting 8th or so. Maybe he can raise his BABIP. Maybe a .300 BABIP for a guy with his speed is actually unlucky. Please let his true BABIP to be .330 and his slash line turn into something like .270/.335/.340 . Maybe the Astros can teach him to be a better bunter. That must be a bad sign, when you hope a player improves his offensive production by bunting more.
I don't have a problem with building a team around extreme run prevention, if that is what the Astros hope to do. Especially when they are so far away from competing. They can try all the crazy stuff they want...
Oh hell, why did they get him in that trade? Couldn't they have left him out and upgraded one of the pitching prospects into Minor or somebody? Or gotten a high upside A ball player? Schafer seems like a clone of Jason Bourgeois to me. We already have Jason Bourgeois! Hopefully one of them can play center next year.
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I feel your pain in trying to spin this to the positive.
I don’t mind Shafer but I just feel like we should have said Minor and Delgado(or hell any of the top 6 pitching prospects insert here). Who cares if we get 4 players for Bourn, we need good-great players not filler. I think we did good in the Pence deal, although I would have loved to get Brown but that might have been off the table. I would have rather kept Bourn and traded him in the off season if Wren did not want to budge on top prospects. We basically only got one high upside player for Bourn (Clemons) and I am not 100% sold on him.
Schafer needs a full season in AAA, where he can prove his durability and hone his skills. Bourgeois and Shuck can fill in at CF next season. If Schafer comes out and destroys AAA pitching and has an OPS of 800+ by mid-season, then call him up. But make him earn it.
The fact that he has tools that don’t tend to slump (speed and defense) and the fact that he was once a top 50 prospect give me hope that he can be a very good everyday CF…eventually. But from what I saw from him in Houston this season, he needs some work.
Schafer is a better defender than Bourgeois. I cringe whenever Bourgeois plays CF, because he just can’t track down balls and catch them well enough. It’s not a speed issue—just bad routes and getting his body in position. He is better as a back up in the corner outfield positions. Shuck is a bad defensive outfielder with a poor arm. I think it would be disastrous if Shuck and Bourgeois were the CFers. So the best thing about Schafer is that he gives the Astros an alternative to playing either one of those OFers on a full time basis. Obviously the marijuana arrest creates more questions about his maturity, but hopefully it is a wake up call for him. I think Schafer shows the skills to be successful, and it up to him and the coaches to achieve his potential. I would consider bringing a cheap free agent CFer in this spring, in case Schafer doesn’t come through.
by clack on Oct 14, 2011 10:33 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
If everything goes accourding to plan
What do you suppose the ETA on Springer to the MLB is?
by lawson3 on Oct 14, 2011 10:51 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
He’s supposed to be pretty raw for a college prospect, so I’m thinking September 2014 as the best case scenario.
by MadMartygan on Oct 14, 2011 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Best case scenario, he starts in Lancaster, mashes, moves to Corpus in late June, mashes, and is on the radar in September and moreso in spring of 2013. Likeliest scenario is September of 2013 or 2014.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 14, 2011 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I’m not worried about CF long term. If Schafer doesn’t pan out, Houston has Wates, Springer, and Jay Austin all coming up behind him. One of those 4 is bound to pan out.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 14, 2011 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Sigh
Honestly, I don’t know what to say about this one. I hope the Astros sign a major league CF for a couple years until George Springer is ready.
Because I don’t know if I can stomach a few seasons of Jordan Schafer, JB Shuck, and Jason Bourgeois.
oh don't worry
If one of them were to break out they’d be traded.
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by Timothy De Block on Oct 14, 2011 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
How does Schafer compare to Bourn when he first came to Houston?
Just looking for something to grasp on to as Schafer is almost four years younger than Bourn. And four years ago, there weren’t many Bourn fans in Houston because he was awful.
Bourn started off shaky and didn’t come into his own until his age 26 season. The seasons before that were Schafer-like. However, Bourn sported a career minor league obp of .378 compared to Schafer’s .327.
Yes I was one of the few Bourn fans when he came over. I’m not a Schafer fan.
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by Timothy De Block on Oct 14, 2011 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Bourn was actually a pretty exciting player during his rookie year with Philly. Maybe we’d feel different about Schafer if he weren’t such an epic failure in his major league stints. Schafer was certainly the better “prospect”.
I try to remind myself that Schafer is only 24, but it’s hard to be anything but down on the Astros right now. Feels like the light at the end of the tunnel is actually an oncoming train.
No Impact Prospects on the Horizon?
Kody Hinze (1B), Jonathan Villar (SS), Jarred Cosart (SP1), Paul Clemens (SP2), Brett Oberholtzer (SP3), Dallas Keuchel (SP4), Jake Goebbert (RF) and Chris Wallace © say hi. All of them ended the season at AA or higher and could be in Houston by this time next year.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 14, 2011 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
I think your starting pitchers peaks are a step down on each one, besides Cosart. I suppose he’s got big time stuff even though he can’t strike anyone out for some reason and is almost a sure bet injury.
Ugh. I meant the pitchers are rated a spot too high. Such as Keuchel probably tops as a 5 Obie as a 4 and Clemens as a 3.
I think you are putting too much emphasis on Cosart's K numbers right
now Marty. Cosart even said in an interview that the organization had him working on other things and trying to polish his pitches rather than just trying to strike people out.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
Yeah, but I’m sure every big time prospect is trying to work on things and polish things up. They’re still striking out people.
How long do you make excuses for a K rate before you accept it for what it is?
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by Timothy De Block on Oct 14, 2011 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Not making excuses that what he said the FO and coaches
told him to work after the trade. He did exactly what he was told. Plus when you consider that before this year he had injuries thus pitching more than he has as a pro and being slightly younger than his competition I think youre being rather harsh on the kid.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
I think AAA sometimes is a better indicator of K rate potential. There is so much to working on pitches at the lower levels (e.g., don’t throw X pitch so that you can work on y pitch, etc.), we just never know for sure. I think it’s safe to assume that high 90’s stuff will eventually translate into Ks.
by clack on Oct 14, 2011 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thank you clack.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
About as long as you make excuses for Towles not hitting in the majors.
Sorry Timmy, no disrespect just figured it was a good chance for a cheap shot.
For the record I like Towles. I like Cosart as well.
by conroestro on Oct 15, 2011 2:29 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Fair enough, and I guess our definitions of “impact” differ. I consider a #2 starter (Cosart), a #3 starter (Clemens), and a #4 starter (Obie) impact players.
Hinze just keeps hitting. Look at his AFL #’s.
Goebbert has yet to struggle and he’s in AAA already. At worst, he’ll be a bench outfielder, but at best, he could be a decent RF.
Villar is a former top 100 prospect. He may be 2 years away, but still, the talent is there.
I’ll grant you that Keuchel and Wallace may never be impact types.
by Snake Diggity on Oct 14, 2011 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
No I’d consider a #2 or #3 or even #4 impact. I just don’t think that’s what those guys are. I think it’s a closer(which could possibly be impact) and #4 and swing man. Goebbert might be a decent RF, but that’s not really an impact guy.
I guess I’m talking about someone who can get you a 5 WAR every year. We don’t have any Matt Moores or Desmond Jennings.
Maybe Cosart is that Matt Moore guy. Let's wait and see.
Moore is almost a year and a half older than Cosart and has been lucky in the injury department. I like the fact that Cosart is listening to his coaches. Plus in the interview I read Cosart’s era was shown to be as high as it was in AA bc of two bad outings. Removing those two bad outings and if memory serves me correctly it was REALLY low (forget exact numbers-I’ll try to find interview again).
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
Matt Moore’s K rates are jawdropping at every level. I seriously want to make out with his fangraphs page. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1890&position=P
As I watched the ALDS, one of the things that struck me was how fortunate that the Rays have been with pitcher injuries. Not only have they drafted well, but they keep producing good pitchers without the attrition to injury that most teams face in the minors. Is this just luck? Or do they have a secret formula (for lack of a better term)?
by clack on Oct 14, 2011 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, the Rays are well known for moving their pitchers through the minor league levels very slowly. That’s one of the comments that Sickels sometimes makes: that the Rays are so deliberate and cautious in moving pitchers from level to level. (Whether that affects injury rates, I don’t know.) Of course, I’m talking about the current front office regime. The previous front office probably over used Kazmir at too young an age in the majors.
by clack on Oct 16, 2011 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
It seems like a pretty smart way to do it. Using Lyles as an example; We’re basically going to waste 2 or 3 arb years before Lyles gets into a realistic prime. If you move him slowly and let him become dominant in every league then call him up, he’s probably going to give you 5-6 really good cost controlled years. Now we probably get 3. I think I kind of changed the subject, but yeah.
Scratch Hinze off that list.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
More than likely Goebert and Wallace, too. Probably also Villar. If one of those guys actually becomes a starter I’ll be surprised. Oh well they’re dead to me anyway if they move to the AL.
Villar
10 HR in 83 games in double A, only 20. I’m surprised so many people are worried, he’s still got a couple years to polish his defense and raise the batting average before I’m worried. I think 2012 will be a big year for him.
by lawson3 on Oct 14, 2011 4:01 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Villar did show some power but some of those were wind aided here in Corpus
and Ill be the first to admit it.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
5 of Villar's 10 HRs came away from CC
He’s not my favorite prospect and not saying he’s a sure fire hit, but I don’t hate that he’s in our system. Has a lot of upside. So I’ll keep defending him… for another year or so.
by lawson3 on Oct 14, 2011 4:59 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I actually think he's going to surprise some folks on here. Watching play
in person you can see why Ed traded got him. The talent is there and considering he held his own while being very young for his league I can see him breaking out this year and becoming a top 100 prospect again. I think he should spend at least 3/4 of this year in AA if not the whole year.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
I'm not excited about a player who hits 10 HR's in AA
Because that usually translates to a player who hits 0-5 homers in the Majors.
See Altuve, Jose.
Villar needs to make some big times strides in his plate discipline. The fact that he is young means he has time to do that, though.
by clack on Oct 14, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
He actually started to show more patience at the end of the season.
I believe he he had a pretty decent string of game where he was taking walks with a good deal frequency.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
No Impact Prospects in that bunch
Except Cosart. If he stays healthy. Ever heard of TINSTAAPP? There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. We’ll have to see with him.
All those other guys are organizational soldiers that we hope will come up and contribute ANYthing.
After Cosart and Singleton, the Astros are as barren as a steer.
I think Schafer was called up to the major leagues too early. It makes both his minor league numbers and major league numbers difficult to use as projections of his future. So, we really have to go off his tools and hope that Bourn is a good example of the time required to achieve ML success.
by clack on Oct 14, 2011 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think a lot of people here are down on him bc of the alleged HGH use
and now his pot smoking and baking. lol These are signs of immaturity on a mental level and necessarily indicative of how we will do on the field in the future.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
Yes, there is an immaturity question. And one can only hope that he gets the big wake up call from the most recent incident.
It’s hard to judge from afar sometimes. But I have read rumors that Schafer was protecting someone else in the HGH incident. Whether it was another player or not, I don’t know. In the marijuana incident, Schafer told the officers that all of the contraband was his and his alone. He had passengers in the car. And maybe we see the tendency to protect his friends by taking all of the blame. I’m not saying that’s good or bad, just an interesting comparison.
by clack on Oct 14, 2011 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I thought all ong the HGH suspension smelled fishy. I just found it odd that
he was suspended but MLB never admitted or said that he failed any kind of drug test. A change of friends might be beneficial for young Mr. Schafer.
Im not going to judge him because I know that I made some bad decisions at that age but they didnt involve drugs unless beer is considered a drug. Some people take longer to grow up than others.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
Nobody's perfect, I agree
But at age 24, I held a full-time job that people depended on me for and I knew better than to screw that up by doing something illegal.
He makes far more money than I did then (by a factor of about ten), and is making these kind of asinine decisions. A 10 year old is young. A 17 year old is immature. 24 is old enough to know what is right, and what is stupid.
Maybe they are
Personally, I’m down on him because of two reasons:
1) He’s never hit at any level,
and,
2) He’s never hit at any level.
I like this reasoning
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by Timothy De Block on Oct 14, 2011 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions
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