Wandy's Side To The Argument

Tim beat me to the punch with his own Wandy article this morning, obviously, but I had a different way of framing my thoughts. Does it make sense for Wandy to go to free agency next year? Let's look at a simple comparison between Player A and Player B:

Player A: 26-22, 444 inn., 3.20 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 9.3 bbWAR, 13.7 fWAR

Player B: 25-24, 400 2/3 inn., 3.30 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 7.3 bbWAR, 7.6 fWAR

Player A clearly has the edge in walks per nine innings, which translates to a lower FIP, which is why his fWAR is so much higher. Player B has less innings pitched, but a higher strikeout rate and about the same bbWAR. The walk numbers may have given it away, but Player A is Cliff Lee and Player B is Wandy Rodriguez.

Cliff Lee emerged as the free agent starter on the market last year at the same age Wandy will be heading into 2011. Their performance is similar enough that if Wandy has a big season, he could have the same kind of momentum and headline next year's free agent crop.

It may not happen like that. Wandy hasn't won a Cy Young and doesn't have the same profile that Lee did. But, if he has a slight uptick in his numbers this season, he's right there.  That would put him in line for at least an 80-100 million dollar payday.

Look at the list of potential free agents after the season over at Cot's Baseball Contracts. The best of the bunch are Mark Buerhle, Roy Oswalt and Chris Carpenter. Oswalt and Carp both have options that will almost surely be picked up, while Buerhle will probably work out an extension this season to stay in Chicago. That leaves...Edwin Jackson? C.J. Wilson? If those three top guys eschew the market, Wandy will clearly be the best starter there. At the very least, he'll get a four or five year deal from someone worth 15 million or so.

But, can you concretely rule out the Nationals or Tigers making him a silly offer? What about the Twins, so flushed with cash? I'm not sure I'd give him 20 million a year if I were a GM, but there is a possibility of him getting paid handsomely. From Wandy's perspective, doesn't he have to at least feel that out before he commits to a long-term deal with Houston?

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join The Crawfish Boxes

You must be a member of The Crawfish Boxes to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Crawfish Boxes. You should read them.

Join The Crawfish Boxes

You must be a member of The Crawfish Boxes to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Crawfish Boxes. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker