How the Astros' 2011 payroll obligations will affect the 2011 Astros
by Stephen Higdon on Sep 4, 2010 1:00 PM CDT
in Hot Stove
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PrintOne of the many things that changed for the Astros post-trade deadline are their payroll obligations for 2011 and beyond. They shed the burden of having to decide whether or not pick up Lance Berkman's option, $7 million worth of Roy Oswalt's contract, and the burden of having to decide whether or not to pick up his 2012 option. Kaz Matsui will also no longer receive a pay check from the Astros, nor will Pedro Feliz (vacuous waste of space he was). As result of this, only three Astros are guaranteed to receive more than $5 million next year, and five at most are likely to get that much after we consider arbitration raises.
Since the trade deadline, that is how I have been laying it out in my head. The Astros have gotten younger, and they have gotten cheaper—glorious. It's the kind of thought that can lead an unattended mind astray into the zone of prognostication regarding free agency. It's dangerous, and that is mostly because the free agent list is just very, very ugly (for players that may actually be in the sweet spot of the Astros' price range and the Astros' positional needs).
Stating the way I just did, made it too easy for me to assume the Astros were going to be bargain basement cheap in 2011. I knew that they weren't, but it was too easy for my mind to boil their payroll obligations down to something so minuscule sounding. So yesterday, in the basement of the library, in between pondering whether the stream of commerce theory still maintains enough weight to be determinative in wake of Asahi and why my life is so sad that I was pondering that, I decided to throw all the Astros payroll obligations into a spreadsheet and hit SUM(). The results (after the jump), I think, give us a fairly clear picture of who the Astros will be in 2011.
I have tried to generously gusstimate arbitration bonuses, as well as include only players I think will likely be on the 25-man roster from within the franchise. As it stands, there are twenty-one players listed, twelve of whom (if I can count) are pitchers. Angel Sanchez or Brian Bogusevic were two players that I agonized over, but then I finally decided to stop caring and just excluded them. Regardless, I have the roster four men short.
I also included the remaining checks to be cashed in both Philadelphia and New York.
| Player | 2011 |
| Carlos Lee | $19,000,000 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | $7,000,000 |
| Brett Myers | $7,000,000 |
| Brandon Lyon | $5,250,000 |
| Hunter Pence | $5,000,000 |
| Michael Bourn | $3,500,000 |
| Matt Lindstrom | $3,000,000 |
| Jeff Keppinger | $3,000,000 |
| Humberto Quintero | $1,500,000 |
| J.A. Happ | $600,000 |
| Bud Norris | $500,000 |
| Felipe Paulino | $500,000 |
| Jeff Fulchino | $500,000 |
| Jason Castro | $450,000 |
| Wilton Lopez | $450,000 |
| Alberto Arias | $450,000 |
| Samuel Gervacio | $450,000 |
| Chris Johnson | $450,000 |
| Tommy Manzella | $450,000 |
| Mark Melancon | $450,000 |
| Brett Wallace | $450,000 |
| Roy Oswalt | $9,000,000 | Lance Berkman | $2,000,000 |
| Total Payroll Obligations | $70,950,000 |
$70-71 million. That's a lot of dough.
Luckily, though, the Astros are a fairly complete team twenty-one players in. The proposed roster above leaves only a few, non-starter spots to be filled. Given that context, my guess is that Wade's off-season shopping list will consist of a scrap heap starting pitcher, a utility infielder, and Jason Michaels. I'll also opine that I think that Wade will only have $8-10 million to shop with based on the attendance (i.e. revenue) decline in 2010.
Thus, to me, the Astros' 2011 payroll obligations means that Ed Wade has two options for the 2011 Astros: go to war with the guys that he's got plus a few spare parts, or figure out a way to get rid of Carlos Lee and at least $7 million or so of his salary. And that raises a question that I have not found answer to, personally: How confident am in the guys that the Astros would be going to war with? What makes me the uneasiest is not that I doubt Wallace, Castro, Paulino, Norris, Happ, and Johnson going forward. My unease comes from the fact that I don't feel either way.
What about you?
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I can see the Astros picking up exactly nothing
I’m kind of hoping J-Mike is gone after this year. He’s getting to that age (next year is his age 35 season), and we have so many other in-organization bench outfield options, most notably Bogey and Bourgeois.
I’m honestly happy with Nelson Figueroa as the scrap heap starter; he looks like he can fill the same role as Brian Moehler with as much or more ability, and he’s inexpensive enough.
Matt Downs feels like a better option to me than any of the available free agent infielders. All of the decent free agents are on the downside of their careers; Downs has some legitimate upside. There ought to be a good battle between Downs and Keppinger for the starting 2B job, and the loser is the first infielder off the bench.
What we really need is a starting shortstop. But there are none I am remotely interested in.
So for me, the best use of the available money would be to buy out Wandy’s last arbitration year and at least one free agent season.
Agreed on all of this. Bogey, Bourgeois, Downs, Figueroa. New contract for Wandy.
But if the Astros can’t help themselves and just have to spend money, my preference would be for a one year deal with a high risk/high reward SP. Similar to deals for Myers or Sheets this past year (one worked out, one didn’t, but that’s what you get with the high risk – I’m just glad it worked out for us and not them).
For SS I’m hoping that Manzella can take steps towards respectability (replacement level or slightly above) next year.
by pacbellpilgrim on Sep 4, 2010 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions
maybe Wade could
swing a trade for a shortstop.
Since we’re in Arizona, how about someone like Stephen Drew?
Or we could try and outbid the Yankees for Derek Jeter (I really hate that you can’t convey sarcasm over the internet).
If Downs/Keppinger can fill 2B, then SS is our only real hole.
I would look for relatively cheap free agents or trade targets for the infield. That’s because I am like Stephen, in that I don’t have particular confidence or lack of confidence in the infielders. I assume that 1 or 2 will be complete busts next season, and the Astros will be desperate to replace them. I would like a player with more upside than Blum to be able to use as a safety net. I don’t really have a suggestion yet. Callaspo or Felipe Lopez types maybe. If the Astros could trade for a young shortstop (Brignac or Janish, for instance), that would be good, but seems unlikely. Maybe Downs is somebody who can prove something. Frankly, Sanchez looks better and better when you examine the reserve middle infielders who may be on the market.
That’s why I really want to pick up the best rule 5 shortstop we can get… who knows, maybe they will all be protected, but if we can get one with some upside that would be great as another layer of insurance against an infielder busting. Manzella and Sanchez both have options left, so we can afford to roll the dice on somebody.
I’m not worried about CJ or Wallace busting entirely. I feel pretty confident that they will both hit enough to at least be above replacement level next season even if they aren’t very good.
I’m mostly just worried about shortstop.
Also, even if Wallace does crash and burn and hasn’t done anything around the all-star break, Lee can move to first base if we get desperate. Lots of organizational outfield options.
The big fork in the road decision this off-season
is whether Carlos Lee returns or is traded.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 4, 2010 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Lee isn’t going anywhere. Full no-trade, contract too big to eat, a lot of people’s favorite player, still fairly productive. It’s a veritable certainty that he will be an Astro for next year and 2012.
by Snake Diggity on Sep 7, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree, my main (and really only) worry about next season is shortstop. The bullpen is set. The bench and outfield are deep. We’re fairly committed to Johnson/Castro/Wallace. The rotation is adequate at worst with Myers/Wandy/Happ/Norris/Paulino and whatever minor free agents and prospects are out there. That leaves 2B/SS as the uncertainties. I think Keppinger has earned the right to be the everyday 2B, and between the other guys currently on the roster (Downs/Blum/Sanchez/etc.), there is bench depth in case he falters. I might get roasted for this, but if there was an opportunity to move some of our OF prospects for a viable SS, I’d do it. If there was a top tier SS on the FA market, that’s where I’d spend the $10-15M we have in uncommitted payroll.
by Snake Diggity on Sep 7, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Chance Sanchez fills Blum's role in 2011?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 4, 2010 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Set for Power Needed? Is It Time?
For years and years, and it seems like decades that we’ve only play 6 inning game (take out SS, C, & Pitcher —all batting below .230s). First all, for those following the Astros, in between Miguel Tejada and Ricky Guiterrez, we’ve had a disaster at SS & catcher. Do you want a 300 20hr guy at SS? No need to answer that. We’re all tired of a slick fielding SS that can’t hit; you can pick up them in any waiver wire or minor league system. Manzella, trial is still out on him, looks like he maybe a grade above of Everette in batting or maybe not. I’m not taking my chances. I will take Sanchez’s batting average any day. As long as the guy can hit 270 avg plays good defense I’m good. Wait..wait..‘that SS defense can save you runs!’ True, Tim Bogar. If I have a chance to add a number 7 / 8 slot hitter with great defense make him to a 2 slot hitter with average and good defense…it’s a two-way production to help out your team in every aspect of the game as much as you can.
Same thing with C, Quintero has proven to be an active defensive catcher that brings his value up..but don’t stick and settle for a Brad Ausmus. Don’t give the ’he’s good at calling games!?!’ Really? We’re in the majors and we want someone that will put up batting average; not asking for G. Soto (Cubs) power. As if we haven’t notice in this era, it’s a plus to have a 8 position players that can get on base. Just get on base with a 270’s avg or so. J. Castro….sure strikesout alot! He’s on trial for potential, we are all waiting for him just to hit for average. Castro potentially can bring us to another lever if he can hit. Can’t ask too much of him right now, but we want to from a 1st rounder. Who wouldn’t right?
Who’s dogging J.Mike? Age is an easy excuse for not understanding. So what’s he’s having not so great 2nd half, tons of star players have that dilemma year in and year out. But Age..age..give me a break. He can hit with power with some clutch and not be in the 220s, be greateful for a pinch hitter.
Bourn is a true defensive miracle that we really really like…need…like him to hit at least 270-280. I’m going to start counting how many superfast centerfielders that we’ve had that can steal bases at will and track down flyballs like a hawk, but can seem to get on base for the life of them. Start with Gerald Young, if you like.
Biggest upgrade problem goes to Espn’s LVP, Carlos Lee. The Manny Ramirez jog to 1st, right? Is he truely a Least Value Player? Hands down for the first half, but not the second half. He’s got clutch, more than I can say about Berkman (super streaky & liability with southpaws). Put him at first and get an OF or get a 1B? Will Lee go cloak and dagger next season with the 1st half again & carry that to the 2nd half too? Will B.Wallace develop soon? There you have it, offensive upgrade tweeking indeed
Remember Pence and L.Scott was tearing up the league in their first full extensive season? Then they came down because they’re not the Tony Gwyn batting average type of player. Finally a 3B that will start and can hit for power and some average. Sophmore stinkers coming? I just don’t know, but I’m enjoying it right now. Can he hit 280 or 290 with 20 hrs? Depends on adjustments of the league and him improving.
Even without the Great O (he deserves where’s he’s going to this year, Amen), This is the best I’ve felt of the pitching staff coming somewhere near the consistency of the ‘05 season (Roger, Andy, Roy & scraps).
Paulino looks promising breaking out of the 5 inning barrier of last year where he complete implodes. At least TBD right now after injury. Norris finally putting his zips into keeping the game to winnable situations. We all know he can strikeout the side. Paulino and Norris can easily put up back to back 10k days. Myer’s..getting in age right??? He’s been a miracle man striking out lots and lots of folks; finally living up to the potential? Up in age right? Who cares! Keep it up Myers, I was wrong about you at the beginning. Wandy, second half magic…wait we have potentially 4 guys that can maybe average a strikeout an inning? Impressive! Wait, did we forget JA Happ, he’s no Roy, but we’re expecting him to be, can he be?…I don’t know, but he looks good enough to be excited over.
Figga who? Figga what? Figueroa, a pleasant upgrade from the inconsistent Moehler. Good to know that we’re not a rehab center for a needle in a haystack for next year’s ‘what might he do next year with his pitching?’ Bullpen may need more work…hmmm. Who knows how these rookies are going to do or how long they are going to last next year..looks a little over worked to me. Lindstrom and Lyons are doing an exceptional job in the close out department. No, Valverde or Wagner, yet if we do get a superstar closer, our bullpen will look lockdown ready. Can we get that superstar closer to show up or drop in? Or should we concentrate on the Lee/contract/true prototype Josh Hamilton / Joey Votto / Pujohs type of a cleanup hitter addition or replacement? Overall, we have great potential at pitching front end and back end.
Hunter’s lodge. Pence is really coming to his own in becoming a clutch hitter, but to ask him to be SF’s Will Clark & Keith Mitchell and/or Matt Williams that brings chills down a starting pitcher? Nope. Can he be? We like to and want him to…as of right now? No way. We can’t ask that of him or expect him to be. As of right now, he looks like an ideal guy that can be a great asset to lineup with true & consistent 4 and 5 hitters. This again leads to the Lee 1B experiment.
Question is, if somehow you get rid of Lee’s contract, who can hands down replace that power and clutch? Can we add some else with him? Can a realistic deal be done to replace him and his contract? If so, are we ready for a two or three year of searching, testing, and finding that elusive elite clean up hitter? Can it be Wallace? C. Johnson? Pence?
Can we survive off of the 2nd half power surge of Pence, Lee, and Johnson? Maybe, but don’t rely on power alone to win games.
2011 looks like we’re able to compete. To put on paper as a postseason threat to win? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. That remains to be seen with trades and development of maybe players.
Remember, going into last year and this year, we had the seventh highest payroll with
$107 mil and +$90 mil or so. Now, we’re looking at $70 mil payroll including the eating up Berkman’s and Oswalt’s contract. If we play it cheap, then we wait til after the 2012 season assuming their contract does get picked up by their current team. Or should we get up into the $100 mil to get that TRUE Elite Superstar? Whatever you do, don’t trade half of our farm system again for picking up declining stars such as Lee &Tejada or junk quick fixes as Matzsui & Feliz. Let’s not make that same mistake, please don’t. We’re not in the mood to hear..‘making the team more competive’, Cecil Cooper. We want the later, TRUE Elite Superstar now..but is Drayton going to sit & play with… ‘A bunch of these guys are eligible for arbitration and new contracts’. Isn’t that what the GM is for? Wheel and deal this time again…Mr-I-Have-My-Own-Award, GM (google Ed Wade Award).
Simple formula, not solution to winning it all, yet effective.
Elite Superstar Hitter = Higher Percentage of Clutch Game Deciding Hits = Higher Fan Expectation & Interest = Higher Ticket Sales + Higher Jersey/Product Sales = Higher Revenue.
Was that so hard to figure out? We’re in a position to financially make that commitment with our strong push..it won’t guarantee a World Series, but give a boost in the attendance bubble where Drayton hurted all season. AKA, it shows the owner is really listening to the fans’ demand for excellence, oh…we’re also speaking for whole team too. We know what happens when non superstar speak up.
Will Ed push that confidence into Drayton and can he pull it off? It’s not just a team effort, it’s an organization effort.
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