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Should the Astros slow Wilton Lopez' roll?

Wednesday's victory over the St. Louis Cardinals clinched the Astros' second series sweep of the Red Birds this season, an anomaly of sorts in a season filled with more losses than wins. If their winning ways haven't been enough to give you a little pep in your step, the return of second baseman Jeff Keppinger and closer Matt Lindstrom from injury should be more than enough to do so. Not that the Astros struggled without the pair, but their being available to play, plus the addition of five minor leaguers because of September call ups means that other Astros won't have to perform in roles that aren't necessarily beneficial for the team or to the player himself.

Wilton Lopez is one such Astro who, while in the midst of a stellar if not spectacular rookie season, has been forced into pitching more innings with greater frequency than most would like to see from a mid innings relief pitcher. His statistics don't necessarily indicate that Wilton has been over used and abused by any stretch. Fifty-eight games pitched, and 58 innings in total after 130ish games is not ludicrously high in relation to the other relief pitchers in MLB either. Nor can we draw any meaningful conclusions from a comparison with injured hurler Alberto Arias, in my opinion, because Arias threw less innings in his first season as an Astro (first FULL season, mind you) than will Lopez.

So are concerns about Lopez' health going into the future legitimate? That much remains to be seen. My subjective brain told me that Brad Mills was running Wilton out there quite a bit in August, while the team actually had leads to preserve and during the DL stints of Jeff Fulchino and Matt Lindstrom. If you go down his log of appearances, it is tough to argue that he has been utilized a great deal more this past month than in any other. His 16 appearances are the most of any month this season and he pitched two innings three times this month, also a season high. To minimize any stress on his arm, the always efficient Lopez threw 23, 20 and 20 pitches in those appearances, in line with his 8+ K/BB ratio on the season. He attacks hitters and doesn't make himself work harder than he has to.Brad Mills called Lopez' number seven times from August 10th to August 19th, and his man delivered by not allowing a run over 7.2 innings, walking none and striking out three. Again, look to the pitches thrown column to realize the almost machine like efficiency of this guy. My personal favorite is the August 10th outing against the Fightin' Ted Turners, where he got two outs with one pitch, inducing a double play to end his daily labors. Good stuff.

Hopefully now with Fulchino and Lindstrom back, and Wesley Wright and Henry Villar added to the mix from the minor leagues, Wilton Lopez won't have to shoulder the burden he did during the month of August. Yes, it's not as if his innings assignments suddenly doubled or anything extreme like that, but his load did increase during the August days of winning with a thin 'pen. He's 27 years old so he's heading into the prime seasons of his career. While the offense struggles to push runs across home plate, pitchers like Lopez will be counted on to win games moreso than for other clubs. Injuries are a part of the game, and as we've seen with the Nationals treatment of Stephen Strasburg, even the kid gloves treatment doesn't always work. Wilton Lopez' value to the Astros can't be compared to Strasburg's value to Washington, but the injury concerns associated with pitching are a constant in today's game. Lopez' usage in August seems to be more to do with game to game situations and limited bullpen options, factors hopefully not to be repeated in September and on into 2011.

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I'd be happy limiting his innings

I think Mills did very well managing the bullpen, especially after the 16 inning game with the Phillies.

Abad and Melancon are now there behind Lyon and Lindstrom, so I wouldn’t expect us to need him too much.

by AstroB on Sep 2, 2010 9:38 AM CDT reply actions  

I’m not as concerned about limiting Lopez’s total innings on the season as I am in limiting the number of consecutive appearances or number of appearances over a week’s time (going forward). The tendency to use him on almost a daily basis is understandable, given his effectiveness, but should be avoided. As long as starting pitchers continue to go deep in games, the number of available relievers should allow Mills to avoid that kind of pattern with Lopez. Earlier in the season, I was mildly concerned by Mills’ statements that Lopez appears to have a rubber arm. That, combined with Lopez’s desire to pitch everyday, could lead to a false sense of security.

by clack on Sep 2, 2010 10:06 AM CDT reply actions  

I went through his game log at BRef

And his usage pattern in the three weeks is ridiculous.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Sep 2, 2010 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

yes, I thought about mentioning that period. the two 2 inning stints during that period stands out.

by clack on Sep 2, 2010 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

No Reason Not To Slow Down

With call-ups and the playoffs not being a realistic hope, there is no reason to be anything but cautious with an arm that could be extremely valuable when it matters (2011+).

Ono top of that, it would be wise to use September as an opportunity to see what we have in minor league arms.

63IP for Lopez isn’t a ton, but the benefit of saving his arm outweighs the cost of having him skip a few appearances this Sept.

by baggs on Sep 2, 2010 12:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Keep him

Yes sir, I would keep Wilton Lopez if not send him to the minors like the Astros did. keep him in the Astros afrm team & when the Astros need help in pitching he will be there. So yes keep Wilton Lopez.

by texasbug on Sep 3, 2010 4:19 PM CDT reply actions  

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