Astros Drop Final Game With Milwaukee 8-6 in 10 Innings
by David Coleman on Sep 15, 2010 5:54 PM CDT
in Houston Astros News
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PrintWow, I can't remember being this frustrated with an Astros game. I'm also going to do something I can't remember having done before. I'm going to complain about the offensive effort during a six-run inning.
First, it's always disappointing when the bullpen lets you down. We've been spoiled a bit this season, since the Astros bullpen has been so solid for so much of the season. Even with injuries to guys like Jeff Fulchino, Chris Sampson, Alberto Arias and Matt Lindstrom, the bullpen has remained a strength of the team. That's why we've forgotten losses like this. Every team has one where the bullpen just lets you down. Good teams have them, as do the bad ones. It's a part of baseball. It still doesn't excuse the fact that the Astros two best relievers gave up three runs in the ninth and tenth innings of a game they should have won.
Was it all Brandon Lyon's fault? Was it Matt Lindstrom's? Neither has looked particularly good lately, though Henry Villar, Mark Melancon and Fernando Abad sure have. I know this is just Lyon regressing to the mean with his ERA, but geez. Did it have to happen so quickly?
As for the offense, yeah, that six run rally was nice. It was also neat that so many different Astros contributed to it. The team sent 10 men to the plate and five of them drove in a run (though Brett Wallace wasn't credited with an RBI, since he reached on an error). The only multi-RBI hit was Brian Bogusevic, who's definitely making a push to take over as the fourth outfielder next season.
Still, with Hunter Pence on first and Jeff Keppinger on second with one out, Carlos Lee hit a tailor-made double play ball to third base. Without that double play, Houston could have gotten some insurance runs and the double Lyon gave up to Ryan Braun wouldn't have tied the game. Carlos Lee hits into double plays. I get that. He'll most likely top 20 GIDPs again this season. With Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace up next, though, that play was really a killer.
Onward and upward, though. I didn't expect the Astros to win them all down the stretch. They fall back to six games under .500, but are on pace for those 10 wins I laid out for them the other day. This weekend holds a tough matchup against Cincinnati. It'd be nice if they didn't have any bullpen issues against the Reds.
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A frustrating game, yes. But I suppose we can expect some regression on these close games. The Astros have scored 90 runs less than they have allowed this year, and their ability to beat the Pythagorean record is probably due in large part to the back of the bullpen. This column by Zachary Levine about the Astros’ record probably is on point:
It’s not all luck, but a pattern of one-run victories and blowout losses, no matter what good things they say about the back end of your bullpen, are hard to sustain.
I think the blame for this game largely falls on the offense for failing to do absolutely anything outside of the 5th inning when all the Astros runs were scored.
That’s what happens when you have a sub .700 OPS hitter in the number four hole.
Seriously when is this guy going to be moved or at the very least given a day off.
by Timothy De Block on Sep 15, 2010 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Felipe Paulino
No love for the big guy? From the box score looks like he pitched a scoreless inning and was in line for the win before the blown save. Nice to see him get back and pitch effectively.
The telegraph lines must be working tonight. It didn’t take fangraphs long to find out that Happ had a poor start and post an article telling us that Houston is seeing more of the real J.A. Happ.
ignores the fact that
Happ has done a great job avoiding the big hits in games this year.
and the start was against the biggest hitters in the league: 1st in HR in the NL, 2nd in ISO, 3rd in SLG%.
Happ has an unusually low HR/FB rate over his major league career. Particularly unusual since he was pitching in a homer-friendly ballpark with Philly.
Unlike many saber guys I actually believe HR/FB rate is somewhat of a skill. In this sample size it could be luck, but still, I think pitchers do have some control over it. That’s why I trust FIP more than xFIP.
Pitcher BABIP also seems to have some component of skill involved, although not much of one, and less than HR/FB rate.
He may just have some combination of HR/FB and BABIP suppression which allows him to slightly out-pitch his peripherals over the course of his career. I do think he has gotten lucky to have an ERA this low, but even if he doesn’t improve his peripheral numbers, I don’t necessarily expect him to regress all the way to his xFIP or even his FIP. I want more data before I come to a firm conclusion on his true talent level, but I don’t want to discount his (so far) ability to suppress home runs and hits on balls in play entirely.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I’ll take two horrible starts out of thirteen. Especially if he’s only allowing three runs or less in the other eleven.
by Timothy De Block on Sep 16, 2010 8:12 AM CDT up reply actions
totally agree
low BABIP could indicate a pitcher knows which pitches will get outs when hit to certain parts of the ballpark, for example Happ knows that any balls hit well to centre will be gobbled up by Bourn.
It’s just an unsupported hypothesis, but my line of thinking was more that it might have to do with fly ball pitchers who know how to induce weaker contact, which would fit with his low HR/FB rate. Obviously, fly balls, especially weakly hit ones, have a lower BABIP than other batted ball types.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Good point about the flyball BABIP, even though the point can be expanded to “batted ball types” generally. It has been shown that some pitchers are better at inducing infield pop ups than others, for example. There is no question in my mind that some pitchers with lots of movement (e.g., great 2 seam FBs, tricky breaking stuff) will induce weaker groundballs, too. It’s just an extension of the known exception to DIPS associated with knuckleball pitchers.
Tango recently wrote a piece about understanding pitcher BABIP. His point is that the BABIP average is simply that—an average. Like any average, it is based on a range, and there are players who sustain BABIP lower or higher than average. However, he cautioned that this doesn’t justify a very low BABIP, since historical data indicates that a BABIP below .260 (as I recall) is very unlikely to be sustainable. Mariano Rivera is a poster boy for sustaining below average BABIP, and his career BABIP is .262. (In other words, the range of sustainable BABIP might be, say, .260 – .310.) So, it’s likely that Happ has overperformed, given his BABIP, but it may not deviate from his true ability as much as the fangraphs piece assumes. I just noticed that Happ’s 2010 BABIP is now at .260; so his 2010 stats may be only a minor overperformance if he is capable of sustaining a below average BABIP.
That’s what happens when you have a sub .700 OPS hitter in the number four hole.
correct!
We’ve been winning despite our offense, not because of it.
Also a quick mention to first half whipping boy Tim Byrdak, who has two runs charged to him in his last 40 appearances.
Any chance that Lyon is experiencing fatigue at this point of the season?
Brewers to stay in Nashville...
This press release says that the Brewers have extended their affiliation with Nashville. So, that means the Astros’ new AAA team will not be in Nashville. I am guessing this increases the odds that the Astros will have Oklahoma City as the affiliate.
I’m bummed either way but I’m with you that I prefer Ok City over Vegas and not just because of the park factors. Vegas is in the Pacific Conference so they only play teams in the American Conference for one series a season. Nashville went to Vegas this year, so I would get only get one series to watch the Houston affiliate every two years. Ok City on the other hand is also in the American Conference with Nashville. So, they play four series, two home and two away. I would get two series a year. As would those who live in the Austin area.
Don’t have much personal stake it in Nashville versus Oklahoma City, since I live in the Houston area, but I’m sorry that those of you who live over there won’t get to see them in Nashville.
As for Oklahoma City… Beyond being closer to home and having a much more neutral park factor, I’ve also heard the ballpark is really nice.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I think some Round Rock fan regulars would prefer Okla. City over Las Vegas for the reasons expressed by Subber10—the Astros’ AAA affiliate will visit Dell Diamond more often if the team is in the same division. I have heard some Astros fans who regularly went to Express games say that they will cut down their visits to Dell Diamond to the games when the Astros’ affiliate shows up.
The Nashville park is supposed to be pretty bad. Even if its old technology, you gotta love having a guitar shaped scoreboard though.
It really isnt in good condition. You can just tell that its old. They did a bunch of upgrades a few years back but you can only cover up so much. The structure and design is just plain out dated. the scoreboard is awesome structure and design is awesome with the guitar, but the technology is way out dated as well. Although, when a new park is built, i would hope they build a newer and more up to date version. It really adds to the nashville environment,that or a jack daniels bottle shaped scoreboard would work,ha.
by Subber10 on Sep 17, 2010 12:46 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
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Astros lead the series 1-0
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
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Houston Astros
Saturday, May 26, 2012, 9:10 PM CDT Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65. |
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
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St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
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Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
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Pittsburgh
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21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
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Milwaukee
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19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
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Chicago
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15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:14 PM CDT)
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