Worst Players in Baseball: The Astros Have It All
by David Coleman on Aug 9, 2010 2:43 PM CDT
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PrintAfter one recent list named Pedro Feliz as the worst player in baseball this season, Joe Posnanski lays this on us.
Not only does he come to the conclusion that Carlos Lee is the worst player in baseball right now. Here's the money quote:
It wasn’t hard to predict because Lee was, at his best, a one-dimensional player. He was a terrible base runner — he has scored minus-28, minus-15, minus-36 and, this year, minus-15 bases in his Houston years. He was a below-average outfielder. He never did walk enough to sustain his on-base percentage. What Carlos Lee could do was swat 30 or so homers a year with good enough batting averages to put up 100-plus RBIs a year. Well, it’s no secret that players like that do not age well.
it was, however, a secret to Drayton McLane and Tim Purpura. Those two teamed up to give this one-dimensional player a 100 million dollar contract that left him as the albatross around the Astros necks. He's the one player they'd have most liked to move at the deadline and the one with the lowest possible chance.
What I wanted to talk about quickly is how three Astros players can crop up on this list.
First, it's not all Purpura's fault. He only had a hand in the Carlos Lee deal. It was Ed Wade who added Miguel Tejada and Pedro Feliz, also players honored as LVP candidates by Pos and others. Wade banked on each of them being vital members of the team and did not get the return he needed. Sure, Tejada was good offensively, but he wasn't great. He didn't hit many home runs, he struggled mightily defensively and hit into a ton of double plays. Feliz had many of the same problems, if you'll notice.
So where's the problem occurring here? Why did these three scouting reports miss so badly? I find it hard to believe the Astros couldn't see the effects of aging on these guys or have some contingency for diminished ability. Heck, Drayton was the first to see that with pitchers after the Greg Swindell/Doug Drabek signings. That's why he famously wouldn't give Randy Johnson a fourth year on his contract.
I also don't entirely buy that it was Drayton's call alone on the Lee and Tejada deals. I know that's what Richard Justice has said on multiple occasions regarding Lee, but I don't see it. He might have had a hand in the contract negotiations, but he's not telling his baseball people who to get. He's a good enough manager to understand that.
If he's not, and he was more involved, we've got more problems than Ed Wade can overcome.
The larger point is to ask if the Astros have a problem predicting how a player will age. Teams are bad at this, but for the past four years, Houston has made multiple bad deals where a player suddenly is much worse after signing his contract. I'm sure Posnanski didn't mention Woody Williams because he's currently in a retirement home. Is this something that they need to improve in their scouting reports? Is this the most glaring case where the team could benefit from someone with a more saberist bent in the front office?
We're obviously dealing with a small sample size, but I'm struck with how these three moves have adversely affected the team. It takes plenty of work to become one of the worst teams in baseball. These kinds of moves explain the how.
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Feliz was a punt that went wrong
It went very wrong, but in the end it’s still a punt.
I’m fed up of talking about the Lee contract. I’m going to ignore it and hope it goes away.
The team's headed in the right direction
Feliz is only signed through the end of the season and Lee only has two years left on that contract. I like the players in our farm system and the two guys traded for that I think could be important pieces in the future in Happ and Wallace. Ed Wade is not an idiot, he drafted some key players for the Phillies (Howard, Utley, Burrell, Hamels) and two of our own (Myers, Bourn).
Tim Purpura screwed the Astros over by not signing draft picks; to me, this is what has killed this team and its minor league system. Then there’s the fact that he traded the little talent we had for rental players (i.e. Zobrist, Talbot for Huff). As for Wade, yeah he made one dumb trade (Tejada). But have any of those guys really panned out for Baltimore? They’re the worst team in baseball.
I’ve said this several times before, but I want to see some of the guys from the 2008-2009 draft class before I make a judgment on Wade.
I didn’t really mean to disparage Wade. I was really wondering whether the Astros have a problem evaluating older players.
I’m a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast foods.
--Ron F'ing Swanson
by David Coleman on Aug 9, 2010 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Not to worry…we don’t have many “older players” left.
by titansfan4ever on Aug 9, 2010 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I can live with the Feliz deal…that Lee contract is a harder pill to swallow.
by titansfan4ever on Aug 9, 2010 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Chone Figgins is doing even worse than Feliz
So it could have been worse. Although, I would have loved to see him fight Mills and Mills kicking his ass.
On a related note, Don Wakamatsu was just fired.
Bud Norris hit A-Rod's 600th homerun.
Posnanski’s critieria is based on both current performance and contract. This happens to be a bad performance season for Lee and he always has a bad contract. He looks worse this year because guys like Wells and Soriano (who probably are the only position players with worse contracts) are having rebound performances this year. Last year, Soriano and Wells were worse than Lee, because they performed poorly and have more burdensome contracts. Next year, Soriano and Wells could look worse than Lee. The Astros tried to sign Soriano over Lee, but after the Cubs gave him $120 million, the Astros moved on to Lee. Overall, I think the Astros got more for their money with Lee than the Cubs got with Soriano, but who knows who will be worse by the end of their contract.
In fairness, Tejada’s performance would not have been a “least valuable player” candidate during his Astros’ years. Despite his contract, Tejada’s WAR over his Astros seasons was pretty much equal to his salary. At least, Tejada’s performance fell off the table (.293 wOBA) after he left the Astros. Maybe Wade should get some credit for not offering him arbitration and passing on a re-signing.
Yes, I think it would be helpful if the Astros took a more saber approach to signings. But that’s not the root of the problem with the Lee signing. The Astros became desperate, bordering on obsessed, with signing a middle of the order run producer. They were buying in a market which was at its peak for sluggers, and big multi-year contracts were the norm (e.g., Soriano and Gary Matthews, Jr., in the same year). A 3 X 12M contract for Lee would have been reasonable, but he was not the elite kind of slugger who should have attracted the contract he got from the Astros. But Pupura and Garner wanted him badly—-maybe thinking that they needed his production to keep their jobs.
Lee would have been better off getting the kind of deal Raul Ibanez got two years later. He might’ve been better valued then.
I do think the situation that winter played largely into the contract, which then weighted down the prism we view his production through. But, shouldn’t the Astros scouts have looked at aging in the future?
Getting away from the saber approach to scouting, there are tons of scouts who look at 17 or 18 year old kids and judge how they could perform five years down the road. Are there not traditional scouts who can do that with players? If so, do the Astros employ any of them or are they just bad at their job?
I’m a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast foods.
--Ron F'ing Swanson
by David Coleman on Aug 9, 2010 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions
During the early part of this decade there were many players who performed at a star level late into their late 30’s and early 40’s, with Barry Bonds as the epitome. Whether steroids created the possibility that guys would appear not to age so much in their 30’s, or it was just a special group of players, I think front offices got into a mind set that star players should be expected to perform well into their late 30s. That may have entered into the way that the Astros evaluated Feliz, Lee, and Tejada. However, I think Wade would probably say that he got what he wanted from Tejada, particularly since Wade places such a weight on clubhouse impact and intangibles. Having watched Wade for awhile, I am convinced that Wade’s weighting of intangible enters heavily into his decisions.
Will we be asking whether the Yankees evaluate older players well when we get to the end of A-Rod’s contract and he is hitting like Carlos Lee is right now? Or how about Holliday’s contract or the next Pujols’ contract? Everyone knew that the Astros faced a big risk on the last 2 years of Lee’s contract, at the time he was signed. Given his body type, the Astros had to know that Lee’s defense wouldn’t be good in LF by 2009/2010. Pupura had to know that, but he was only concerned with the next two years, thinking he could be fired if the team didn’t win. My view is that you only give these kind of contracts out to elite hitters (Berkman and A-Rod would fit that category) because their performance will be sufficient during the bulk of the contract to make up for the declines in the latter years.
You are forgetting one Uncle Drayton
He runs that business. And he only understands the business part. He thought bringing those guys in would sell tickets. Period.
In my own(completely assumed) conspiracy induced thoughts I have believed for several years Uncle D has been trying to keep Latin “stars” around. I don’t think the theory is unjust or wrong in any way but in these instances it did not work for the Stros. In theory having white, latin, black, and asian stars is ideal for marketing. I think that has swayed the Astro’s GMs for the last several years via Uncle D.
When in doubt about an Astro problem go to the top. Drayton runs all aspects of the Astros.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
The Astros were stung by the attacks on their team during the 2005 World Series that they were all white (the critics forgot about Willy Taveras and Orlando Palmeiro…oh well), with the implication that the Astros didn’t want black or Latin players. The criticism was ill-founded, but it caught on. Even Carlos Lee said he had heard other players repeat this about the Astros. I think the Astros made a concerted effort to show some racial diversity in their team composition. I won’t complain about it, because I think the Astros’ reaction was understandable.
The bottom line is....
the Astros have taken some gambles and lost. That’s acceptable…what’s not is the fact that IMO, they have been neglectful in certain areas….mainly in reference to their lack of concern about aquiring “top notch” starting pitching. No disrespect meant towards our current rotation…but…just saying. You can pick up all the power/base hitters you want to…and even defensive players (Bourn)…and that’s all fine & good…but…unless 3 out of your 5 starting pitchers are “lights out” aces….your going nowhere…hate to say it, but that’s the truth.
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