Astros Back In Win Column, Beat Mets 4-1
by David Coleman on Aug 28, 2010 11:13 PM CDT
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In the midst of the biggest youth movement in years, it was the two players in the over-30 crowd who powered the Astros in Saturday night's victory over the Mets.
Brett Myers threw seven innings of shutout ball, striking out six and walking one while allowing six hits. Lee staked Myers to a two-run lead in the top of the first inning with an RBI single with runners on first and second. Tommy Manzella followed with another RBI single with the bases loaded two batters later.
After that, Myers didn't allow more than one baserunner in an inning and no runner reached third base with him on the hill. The Mets finally got on the board with a run off the previously unhittable Wilton Lopez. Every Day had a little trouble in the eighth inning before Tim Byrdak got the final out of the frame.
Of course, Carlos Lee's two-run homer in the fifth made the Mets' late rally moot. Lee's blast was just another sign in how well the Astros were hitting Johan Santana. Houston picked up eight hits off him, including four runs and only struck out four times. That included a three-hit night for Tommy Manzella and a two-hit night for Jason Bourgeois. The Astros only walked once off the Mets pitching staff but it was the fourth time in the last six games that the Astros have totaled at least 10 hits.
That's also six wins in the last seven games for Houston and assured that the Astros would have a .500 record for the third straight month. The Astros are also 11 games under .500 for the first time since....well, Thursday. Before that, though, it was May 16th, when the Astros were a robust 13-24. So, there is progress. It's just been sloooow.
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Lopez's velocity has been down
I think they should shut him down for a week or so. I also don’t understand why Mills is taking valuable plate appearances from Wallace. If you want to give the bench outfielders some playing time, then fine: Bench Carlos Lee, for God’s sake.
Mills needs to stop worrying so much about winning ballgames when it comes into conflict with the health of his pitchers or valuable playing time for important prospects. We’re 15 games back and it’s about to be September. Wins are fun, but in reality they don’t matter.
I’m in agreement that they should give Lopez some time off. Not so much on the other point. I think it’s valuable for the Astros to see how Lee can perform at first base. Assuming he is untradeable, he probably will have to play a substantial amount of time at 1st base next year.
Why would Lee play substantial time at 1B next year?
We have Brett Wallace. That’s the whole point. We need to commit to running with him until he proves in a legitimate sample size that he can’t hit major league pitching (and we aren’t anywhere close to that point yet, nor will we be by the end of this season).
Also, communication goes a long way. The reason people were going around wearing “Really?” T-shirts last year was not just that Cooper was making baffling decisions, it was because he didn’t bother to explain them, so he just looked like an idiot with no reasoning behind his actions. The players know that any games against non-contenders are entirely meaningless, especially once we are mathematically eliminated, which won’t be long from now. And that it’s important to find out who will contribute next season and get them the experience to adjust to ML pitching.
Every time Wallace sits out for a game, I grind my teeth in frustration. He has to get the plate appearances to make his adjustments sometime. Why not do it now when the games are as meaningless as they will ever be? Essentially, we are wasting free development time for him.
When I said that Lee will play a substantial amount of time at 1st base next year, I shouldn’t have been so definite. I think it depends on other factors, including whether any young outfielders force their way onto the roster next year, or whether Wallace comes on so strong next year that he can’t be taken out of the lineup. But I don’t think it’s an unreasonable scenario to think that it’s possible that Lee will be used at 1st base a few days a week next year. Replacing Lee in LF improves the defense. And if the Astros have a good option in LF—whether it be Bogusevic, Martinez, Locke, or Bourgeois—that could turn out to be the right baseball move.
I was joking about the “really” t-shirt. But I think it just simply not an option to bench Carlos Lee when he is this hot. I don’t think that is really explainable to players. I think it is terrible for team morale, and probably unfair to Wallace, who looks like he is being handed a job he hasn’t earned when someone else is performing better. I don’t think Wallace or any of the young infielders for that matter should be handed the job in spring training. They need to earn it in competition. If Wallace was getting only a few plate appearances this season, I could see the concern. But he is getting plenty of chances to perform so far. He is on pace for roughly 200 plate appearances, which is quite a bit—certainly he has been given the bulk of playing time at 1st base. I also wouldn’t mind if Wallace gets some time at 3d base, like you mentioned in another thread, if CJ needs time off. That would give Wallace another way to get in the lineup next year and provide a back up if CJ’s performance turns out to be an illlusion.
If it were a binary choice between Lee and Wallace
I’d agree with you. But in reality, we’re talking about maybe 5ish more games this year in which the bench outfielders will need to start. Most of the time, it would just be Lee in LF and Wallace at 1B, as has often been the case.
What I’m saying is that Wallace should not be the first choice to hit the bench when an outfielder needs a game to stay sharp. Lee rarely sits out and it wouldn’t hurt to have him miss a few meaningless games in September. I think you’re exaggerating how the players, and Lee himself, would take it if he did get a few breaks over the next month.
For that matter, Bourn and Pence can take turns having a game off too, and between the three of them there should be plenty of time for our bench outfielders without costing Wallace any playing time.
If we’re talking about a handful of games when Wallace sits next month, I doubt that it has any meaningful impact on Wallace’s development. Personally, I just don’t think it’s a big deal.
From a fan stand point I want to see what the young players can do. Getting the backup outfielders playing time means nothing to me. I don’t mind Wallace getting a day here or there, but so far he’s been either sat or pinch hit for in three straight games. That seems a bit counter productive from a development stand point.
Wallace does not project to be a platoon player so it’s kind of dumb to treat him as such. If they wanted to get Lee sometime at second, why not just move him there once Berkman was moved. I’m all for improved defense in the outfield, but acquiring Wallace and then treating him as such is wasteful.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 29, 2010 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
They probably thought he could hit at the Major League level right now when they traded for him.
Don’t fall in love with a plan…if he can’t hit, get someone in there that can.
If that’s the case, Castro should be gone, so should Bourn. Oh and forget about Wandy he was horrible in his first couple years.
Biggio should of never been an Astro. in 1988 in his first 123 AB he hit .211. Same thing for Berkman. In his first 93 AB’s in 1999 he hit .237
There’s a lot more baseball to be played in Wallace’s career. Saying he can’t hit at the major league level based on 75 AB’s is not a fair assessment.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 29, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Do you understand that batting average doesn’t stabilize until over 650 at bats? It’s not unusual for a player whose true talent level is to hit .300 to go a month or longer at a time where he hits below the Mendoza line, simply out of luck or random variation or factors outside his control.
As I mentioned below, Carlos Lee had a vicious slump in April where he had 82 at bats and batted .182. Yet we didn’t stop playing him because we knew his talent level was higher than that, and you have to let players work through their slumps.
oh so if Wallace is hitting .211 you’re not going to call for his head.
The difference between hitting .187 and hitting .200 is just one more hit.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 29, 2010 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree that Wallace doesn’t have enough at bats to make an assessment of his offensive ability. But comparing him to Bourn and Castro isn’t fair either. As a first baseman, Wallace will have to hit a lot better than a CF or C. I’m not saying he won’t, just saying that the offensive standard isn’t as high for defensive positions like CF and catcher. Wallace is still young and there is time for him to develop into an offensive oriented first baseman.
Ya I understand that. The point I was trying to get at is that just because a guy struggles early in his career doesn’t necessarily mean he can’t hit at this level.
Dustin Pedroia anyone?
by Timothy De Block on Aug 29, 2010 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Lee, himself, says he gets upset when he isn’t playing. I would say forget about how he feels if it is a matter that he isn’t hitting well. But when he is one of players carrying the offense right now, I say play him.
Quote from Mills on MLB.com as to why Bourg led off
“I went back and looked at the at-bats that Bourn had against Santana at our place [last week],” Mills said. “He got two base hits, one up the middle and one to left field, and they started pitching him inside after that. … I’m hoping if Bourgeois can get on and they throw [Bourn] inside, that’s going to open up that hole [on the right side of the infield] with Bourn.” End of quote.
Good to see a manager’s insight. He wants to validate himself as well and in order to see if he plan would work, he needs a bat (Lee) in the lineup. Set the table, let Lee whack it. It worked.
Couldn’t have put a plan together and then extrapolate what would have happend if Wallace hadn’t struck out. Lee was the right choice to be in the game and playing 1b. If Wallace doesn’t want to sit, he needs to go to the batting cage and perform when given a chance.
Let me say this again
Getting Brett Wallace plate appearances is more important than winning ballgames. A golden sombrero from Brett Wallace has more long term importance than a homer from Carlos Lee.
What has Wallace done to deserve a starting position in the Majors? Why is he the magically the annointed one simply because we got a AAA player in a trade?
No performance=no play time. There’s better options at first and last night we got another glimpse.
He is a good prospect, but even good prospects often take time to adjust to the major leagues. If you never give them a chance, then they never adjust, and you’ve wasted a valuable asset. Giving Carlos Lee—who has no long-term future with the Astros organization and will probably never be part of an Astros postseason team—everyday starts at first base instead of Brett Wallace would be both wasteful and foolish.
Maybe the Astros are thinking of the future and playing Lee at 1b is part of their evaluations. If he hits 25-30 HRs, drives in 80-100 RBIs, then Lee needs to play everyday at 1b to see if he can finish out his contract as a first baseman which opens up a slot for a speedy left fielder.
Lee’s bat at 1b with improved speed at LF next year may be what the Astros are looking at. That would be a great looking outfield and surely be worth a few extra wins next year.
I’m not concerned with a few extra wins next year. I’m concerned with getting back to the postseason. A few extra wins will not do that.
Besides, I seriously doubt any of the players available to play left field next year would provide a better contribution to the team’s overall win/loss record than Lee in left field and Wallace at first base. Bourgeois is not a prospect anymore. He’s a bench outfielder at this level, and if he were to start at any position, it would have to be center field, because he doesn’t have the bat to carry either corner outfield position. Bogusevic, much as I like him, is realistically a bench player, not a starter; he doesn’t have the offensive potential to carry left field either.
J.D. Martinez is the only one who has a realistic chance to hit better than Wallace, but he’s not ready. He hasn’t played a single game in AAA yet.
A few extra wins could be the difference between making the post season or not, as a hurricane a couple years ago reminded us.
I think wins do matter a lot
For player confidence, for fan confidence, for management confidence – wins basically show that the team is going in a right direction. No one wants to see this team mail it in. Mills’ job is first and foremost to win ballgames. That’s why he has to put redhot Lee in, that’s why he has to put unhittable Lopez in.
I hope Lopez didn’t lose his confidence after that stupid 2 out homer to the Phillies. He’s been asked to do lots of work, hopefully a short break will get him right back on track.
He thought the wind generated by his bat would carry the ball out of the park. --Braves fan comments on Ryan Howard's 0-7, 5K night vs HOU
by RocketsAstros on Aug 29, 2010 5:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Loved the lineup last night.
Wouldn’t mind at all to see Lee at 1b next year and let Bogusevic, Martinez, Locke, Bourgeois or someone else battle for the LF spot.
Clearly, Wallace is over his head right now and although we’re out of the playoff race, as a fan and human, I want to see the Astros play good ball, win as many games as they can, knock others out of contention, and end the season on a roll.
Three speedy outfielders next year, Lee at 1b, CJ at 3b, a pretty good 1-4 rotation that we have right now, a competition for SS and 2b, and Q/Castro catching, that’d be a pretty good ball club and one that I’d like to watch.
The most exciting part is that the Astros now have competition at most positions that hadn’t been there before. Now, as fans we don’t have to endure 0-50 slumps to let a player work it out. The Astros don’t have to tolerate hitting under the Mendoza line because the system is starting to produce competition and quality guys willing to take starter’s positions (see Feliz, Kaz, Cash, Berkman, and the rotations at SS and 2B).
Wallace and others need to hit and play well before they can claim a starting spot on the roster. Sending them out and watching them flail will plesently no longer have to be endured by us fans.
Unfortunately, sometimes you have to endure growing pains with prospects. Astros fans have become accustomed to Drayton McLane’s short-sighted philosophy to running an MLB team, and seem to expect young players to produce big right away, frequently jumping the gun when they underperform early in their careers to call for their jobs.
It needs to stop. We are obviously out of it this year, and are very unlikely to seriously contend for the postseason next year. This is the perfect time to let good prospects like Wallace work through the adjustments every rookie has to make.
You’re making my point for me. We don’t have to endure growing pains like Wallace as much anymore because the Astros have more options available to them.
1 HR with 3 RBIs and a win from 1b last night (Lee). Specatacular diving catch from LF last night (Bourg). Astros win. As a fan, that’s what I want to see every night, regardless of the standings. Win and play good baseball.
Thinking short term like that is what got the team into this mess in the first place. You build a young, cost-efficient core, then you build around that core. You endure the growing pains because making mistakes is how young players learn; no mistakes, no adjustment to the big leagues, no young, cost-efficient core.
A bunch of declining, crappy veterans and an unending series of losing seasons.
Do you think it’s a coincidence that the Florida Marlins have won two World Series titles despite having a fraction of the Astros’ payroll and being in existence for a fraction of the time? They’ve done it because they are very good at exactly what I’m talking about.
I never want the Astros to be like the Florida Marlins—a team which gets a handful of fans and calls them a crowd. The Marlins would be my No. 1 candidate for contraction. The Marlins have a crappy business plan which can only survive if they are fully subsidized. Every time someone uses the Marlins as an example, I respond the same way. Major league baseball would collapse if every team modeled themselves after the Marlins.
There are a lot of things I don’t like about the way the Marlins run their organization. I was referring to the their ability to build a cheap, young core out of their farm system, and their tendency to always give their young players a chance to succeed.
I don’t think their lack of ability to draw fans has much to do with the way they run their baseball operation. I think it has more to do with the ballpark, the market… the way the team markets itself. The Astros do a much better job of that. But they are far inferior from the standpoint of developing young players.
I think the Marlins’ operations have a lot to do with their lack of support. The way that they cut their payroll so stringently after each World Series team in order to rebuild probably is the primary reason that the local public has no support for the team. The Marlins gained the reputation as a money-grubbing team which didn’t care about continuing their winning team core, and fans just shut them out. That first sell off in 1998 gained national attention and gave the team a reputation that it cares more about money than its fans. So anything they did after that would be subjected to skepticism by fans. The tendency of the Marlins to get rid of players as they enter arbitration years also doesn’t help. Fans are unable to gain an attachment to players. There is a reason that the Astros want to keep star players and market them as faces of the franchise—it is part of maintaining that fan attachment.
By the way, this has nothing to do with the argument about Wallace. I just always have the knee jerk reaction to the Marlins analogy.
Right, as I said, there are many things I don’t like about the way they run their organization. Again, I was just referring to their handling of young players. Not arbitration, trades, etc. It seems clear to me that player development is the great strength of their organization, and what I was trying to point out was that being good at that goes a long way in terms of creating winning teams: In Florida’s case, two championships.
I couldn’t disagree with you more. Falling in love with players and not being able to make the hard choice to bench, trade, or cut them is what got the Astros some very boring years (Everett, Scott, Burke, etc).
Currently, the Astros don’t have a bunch of declining, crappy veterans. There are NINE rookies on the roster and FOUR of those rookies start on a routine basis.
There is competition in the Astros’ system now with a lot of young players.
I believe we are simply talking about one player that you seem to be very high on – Wallace not playing first base routinely. My point is that if he’s in over his head and there are better options that we are seeing exercised.
Unlike you, I want to see a winning team hit the field everyday, not just when it’s convenient.
The mistake you are making is assuming that we are anywhere close to the point where you could write off Wallace. He has played in 25 games. He has 75 major league at bats.
That sample size tells you nothing. Carlos Lee, the established veteran slugger you’re so high on, had a slump in April which was longer and worse than Wallace’s performance so far. And he didn’t have the excuse of being a rookie playing his first games in the major leagues.
If Wallace is still underperforming significantly at the end of next season, I will be open to the idea of cutting him loose. Right now, we have no idea what he has in store offensively. The sample size is so small you basically can’t put any stock in it whatsoever.
And unfortunately, no matter what players we pick and choose to put in the lineup, this is not a winning team. It isn’t now, and it won’t be next season, either, however nice a hot streak they might be on right now. I want to get back to having a winning team, though, and to do it, we have to give top prospects like Brett Wallace a chance to adjust.
Wallace has started the vast majority of the games since he joined. It’s not like we are not giving him a chance. Sitting out here and there is not going to hamper his development.
He thought the wind generated by his bat would carry the ball out of the park. --Braves fan comments on Ryan Howard's 0-7, 5K night vs HOU
by RocketsAstros on Aug 29, 2010 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Every plate appearance helps; every missed opportunity for one hurts, if only a little bit. He’s out of the lineup again today, for the second game in a row, and this time against a righthander.
I think he could use the break. As opposed to keep putting him out there and expect he snaps out of it. I would like for CJ to get a break here and there too.
He thought the wind generated by his bat would carry the ball out of the park. --Braves fan comments on Ryan Howard's 0-7, 5K night vs HOU
by RocketsAstros on Aug 29, 2010 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Cincinnati
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St. Louis
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(updated 2.9.2012 at 6:00 PM CST)
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