Astros Payroll
by cactusjake on Aug 24, 2010 9:13 AM CDT
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PrintIt's tough to figure out what the actual payroll is now, especially not knowing the particulars of the trades, how much cash was eaten, etc. However, as near as I can figure, the Astros have reduced their payroll to $50-$60M? Even if I'm off on the calculation, the Astros have clearly dropped their payroll significantly from where they started the season, which is really my point.
That begets the question, what do the Astros do now that they have a rookie infield, an offense missing a consistent big bat, a lead-off hitter with an undesireable OBP, and some extra money for payroll?
As discussed on the other threads, the pitching staff looks to be solid enough to win games next year, full of #2 and #3 pitchers but missing an "ace". The Astros appear to be solid defensively (yes, even with Lee). The glaring problem is the lack of consistent HR power.
Do you hope that Lee turns it around next year, that Wallace and CJ develop power, and just be content with solid pitching, good defense, and "small ball" next year?
Or, do you spend some of that money that was saved by trading Oswalt, Berkman, and Feliz and bring in a bat or two. If so, where do you put them?
It's a great problem to have but am interested in hearing some opinions.
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I haven’t calculated the numbers, but I would be surprised if the Astros reduced the payroll nearly that much, taking into account that the Astros paid out substantial sums in the trades and extended Myers’ contract at a higher cost. Maybe someone can put together a spreadsheet to figure it out.
Keppinger, Bourn, Pence, and Wandy will all be due substantial raises in arbitration too.
I’m starting to have questions about the defense
CJ still has plenty to prove. Manzella can be average to above average defensively but he has to play first. Sanchez looks to be about average, but both at this point are below average. Keppinger is in the lineup because of his bat, and impacts the defense less at 2B but is still a liability there. Pence has gained a few pounds and it looks like it’s made him an average right fielder. Lee not good.
Wallace looks to be average or slightly above. Castro while be good at catcher. Bourn is good in center.
Three out of eight positions with two question marks is not something I would call solid. They currently rank 22nd in UZR/150 and 24th in DRS, they’re going to have to vastly improve If these guys want to be eveb average next year.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 24, 2010 11:47 AM CDT reply actions
That’s true. Manzella may or may not have enough of a bat to stay in the lineup. Manzella probably can be above average on defense, but he has to show better judgement and make fewer errors on easy plays. I hold out hope that Pence will revert to his previous excellent defense. One season of UZR/DRS stats can be unreliable due to sample size, and hopefully we will see a reversion to mean on defense for Pence. But your concern about Pence deteriorating on defense could be well founded. But overall, the defense doesn’t look promising. We really have to hope for leaps and bounds improvement from the young players (who are the most likely to improve, given their age).
The only players I would expect to be below average on defense next year would be CJ and Lee, with 2B a possibility. I expect Castro, Wallace, and Pence to post good defensive stats next year. Overall, I expect Houston to be an above-average defensive team next season.
by Snake Diggity on Aug 24, 2010 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I have the 2011 payroll at ~$65M, which factors in Myers’ new contract, arb raises for everyone except Sampson and Byrdak (Pence, Wandy, Bourn, Lindstrom, Kepp, and Q), and picking up Blummer’s option. It doesn’t include any money leftover from O or Berkman that we ate that will count against next year’s payroll or any free agents we sign.
Predicted 2011 25 man roster with expected 2011 salary:
Lee- $19M
Myers- $10M
Wandy- $6M
Lyon- $5.3M
Pence- $5M
Bourn- $4M
Lindstrom- $3.5M
Kepp- $3.2M
Blum- $1.5M
Q- $1.2M
These players at or near the league minimum ($400k ea): Happ, Wallace, Fulchino, Melancon, Paulino, Abad, Bogusevic, CJ, Lopez, Castro, Manzella, Norris, Chacin, Sanchez, Bourgeois
The payroll numbers would depend on how the Astros account for the portions of Berkman’s and Oswalt’s contracts which they paid to the Yankees and Phillies. That is $17 million in total, if I recall correctly. It’s possible that the Astros would prorate the amount over the next two years, or alternatively consider it all as part of next year’s payroll. That could raise your payroll number to $73 to $82 million.
Either way, that gives us room to work. I only see the FO bringing FA at 2B, SS, and possibly reserve OFers. The rotation and pen should be locked up other than NRI guys. The starting OF is set unless Lee, by some sort of miracle, is moved. I think they’ll stick with Wallace and CJ for the corner IFers as well as Castro and Q for the catchers. We know that Wade will want to bring back Blum by picking up his option. Hopefully Wade will go with Bogey and Bourgeous for the reserve OFers to save money and forget Michaels, but will still bring in other NRIs for those. So, really any big FA would be 2B or SS. But, there really aren’t any potential FAs that I really like. Jeter is probably the best bat that might be available, and I doubt we try or have a chance at bringing him in.
Free Agents I want Houston to look at:
2B/SS: Jose Reyes, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Juan Uribe, Miggy Tejada
SP: Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, Andy Pettite, Ted Lilly, Chris Young, Jon Garland, Erik Bedard, Bronson Arroyo, Justin Duchsherer, Dontrelle Willis
Obviously, it’s all about value, but I think Houston will have payroll flexibility to add a top of the order middle infielder and a starting pitcher, and I think they should do that both for the fans’ sake and to allow the youngsters to develop with less pressure.
by Snake Diggity on Aug 24, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree that we need to add a top of the order middle infielder. But, I don’t think its that important to bring in a starting pitcher. Mostly because it causes us to give up on one of our starters already. Myers and Wandy are guaranteed a spot. Same can probably be said for Happ. I’d rather develop Paulino and Bud than sign a pitcher. Yes they are injury concerns, but what do you do with them if you sign a pitcher? Send Bud to AAA or put him in the pen? Do you send Paulino to the pen? Not a chance, Paulino has taken a step forward and I beleive he is on the cusp of truly breaking out in a big way once he gets healthy. Bud has been great the past couple of outings.
Tejada and Pettitte?
Really? We’re trying to rebuild. Astros don’t need broken down players with checkered drug histories.
Exhibit A... Joey Votto
Wallace may take a few years to finally mature and produce. Votto has produced the last 2 years in the MLB, but this being his 3rd year he has finally started to produce what was expected of him. Not saying Wallace is the next Votto, but both are young LH hitters in the NL Central. Wallace may be a notch or 2 below Votto, or he could mature to be almost on par with Votto. Only time will tell.
Joey Votto is actually a pretty good comparison similar OPS, SLG and OBP
by Timothy De Block on Aug 24, 2010 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Possibilities??
If that payroll is the case, then bring home Carl Crawford or Adam Dunn!!
As for pitching we could go after, Jon Garland, Matt Cain, maybe even Brandon Webb. Or give an incentives-laden deal to an oldy but goldy like Tim Hudson or Ted Lilly until Lyles and some of the other young farmhands are ready to step in and take over.
Theres no need to bring in any starting pitchers of that caliber. In all liklihood, we will not be contending, so why spend that kind of money on someone like that. Our pitching is fine.
I’d be all over bringing in Crawford if we move Lee. I’m happy with giving Wallace the chance to develop. We have to think future and Wallace could have a bright future, so no thankyou with Dunn.
This is crazy talk, but with the FA class being weak in our need areas (SS/2B), what about a sign and trade? Sign Crawford (or another big name OF) and then trade him for a team with an extra SS/2B?
by Snake Diggity on Aug 24, 2010 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
You want crazy talk? How’s this?
If Wallace needs time to develop his hitting, what are the possibilities of letting him hone his skills in AAA next year, move Lee to 1st, and signing Crawford (or another big bat) into LF?
Wallace doesn’t need to hone his skills he needs to be playing against both lefties and righties. Sending him to AAA does nothing for him.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 24, 2010 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
How long do you let a 23 yr old stay out there if he isn’t hitting? Granted, it’s only 60 AB or something like that since he’s been in the Majors but he’s barely hitting the Mendoza line, 0 HRs, etc.
The Stros need some pop from 1B and if he’s not popping, he needs to work it out in AAA. They have lefties and righties down there too.
Jerking Towles back and forth between the majors and minors really helped him figure it out.
Putting an aging LF at first base so you can sign a 29 year old that’s going to cost about as much as that LF putting the team more in a financial bind is a better solution?
Wallace needs a full year, and after that he still needs to be the starting first baseman the next year regardless of the previous years stats. Being patient, and playing to their strengths is the solution, not the free agent market.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 24, 2010 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Wallace btw has been hitting verse left handed pitchers .278/.350/.333 for a .683
Against starters its even better with an .833 OPS. It is all a small sample size, but Mills is taking away the best part of Wallace’s game, by sitting him so of course he’s not going to produce.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 24, 2010 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions
There is no way that Wallace will be a better hitter vs. LHP in the majors over the long term. Don’t be fooled by small sample size stats in the majors. That kind of opposite platoon hitting happens very rarely for career stats by a LHB. So, I don’t really buy that Mills is taking away the best part of Wallace’s game. If that is true, and Wallace is LHB who can’t hit RHP well, he’s got big problems and probably can’t survive as a starter.
That may be the case in the future but at this point it’s not, and the major league numbers backup what his minor league numbers have said in 1137 AB’s. Until he proves otherwise including his minor league numbers he hits left handers well. It’s a bit premature to assume that Wallace is going to be a “traditional” left handed hitter.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 25, 2010 7:04 AM CDT up reply actions
just to point out: if you neutralize Wallace’s minor league career splits for luck and park, his platoon reverses (.839 OPS vs. LHB; .880 vs. RHB).
But his MLE is .744 vs lefties and .643 vs righties.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 25, 2010 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions
MLB doesn’t allow “sign and trade” free agent signings. After a free agent is signed, he can’t be traded for two months into the season, or something like that. If Crawford signed with Houston, I am sure he would insist on a no trade clause, since the only reason to sign with the Astros is to be near his family. The Astros are not a desired destination for big time free agents otherwise.
I’d try and trade Carlos Lee (and pay pretty much all of his contract) to an AL team for preferably some young talent.
Yes on C. Crawford please.
No on Dunn( Even though I like Dunn a lot).
Wallace is starting remind me of Sean Casey(Not exactly a bad thing)…Keep feeding him AB’s.
Yes on Brandon Webb….Maybe bring in Ben Sheets too if Houston could get him really cheap…High Risk/Med-to-High reward.
Yes on Orlando Hudson at 2B although I’m more than fine with Keppinger at 2B.
O-Dawg
No thank you on O-Dawg. He is another loud mouth Gary Sheffield-esque whiner.
Jose Reyes
is a very intriguing possibility. Can you imagine a 1-2 combo of Reyes and Bourn? They could steal 120 bases between the two of them, easily. And we’d have a sold shortstop for a few years until someone materializes in our system. The Mets have an $11m option on him, which I think they would take. Would we be willing to pay that much? 4yrs / 50M?
Big trades
I don’t want the Astros doing any big trades for at least two years. Beef up scouting and replenish the farm system. Show me they can recognize unproven talent before they go spending top dollar on castoffs and prima donnas.
PITCHING
As crazy as it sounds dont count out Jordan Lyles being called up sometime next year, whether is from the start of the season or AllStar break this kid has the make up to be a solid #2 Starter and could easily come up as our 3-5. Clayton Kershaw (though has nastier stuff) was called up at 19 and held his own.
But I do not see us chasing any type A or B free agents this offseason, Wade has a good eye for talent and built the PHI through the draft. Until we see how guys like Wallace, CJ, Lyles, Norris, etc.. develop we are not going to lose valuable draft picks to add big names.
next season
Hey this team is not all as bad as it seems. Find a power hitting outfielder to play left and move Lee to 1B. Find a front line starting pitcher to fill the ace spot and you have the makings of a true contender. Line up would look liek this
Bourne CF
Keppinger 2B
Pence RF
New Left Fielder
Lee 1B
JOhnson 3B
Castro C
Manzella/Sanchez SS
Rotation
New guy
Meyers
Rodriguez
Happ
Norris
Bull Pen
Fulchino
Lopez
Figueroa
Lindstrom
Lyon
and another arm or two from the plethora of guys there
There is some dead weight in the minors that can be used as trade bait if needed to get those key players
Kata, Towels, and others who are already in their 30’s and have some major league experience that could help another team.
Bottom line this team needs to make a couple of improvements and it could once again find itself in the thick of a playoff race., but if the track record of our front office is any idication of thier mind set they will mail off more talent and make decisions that are completely stupid and things will stay status quo.
Are you already giving up on Paulino and Wallace as the 1B of the future? I’m not willing to send an starting pitcher to the minors for a FA pitcher. The only way IMO would be to trade Wandy. I’m not enamored with any potential FA LFers either since they’ll likely be looking for long term deals and put us in the same situation we are in now with LF.
Houston’s needs are primarily at 2B/SS. The outfield is fine, given what they have now and in the farm. It’s too early to give up on Wallace/Johnson, so making a move at 3B/1B wouldn’t be prudent. Castro/Q are outstanding defensive catchers, and Castro is young enough to give his bat hope. The bench acn be stacked with cheap quality vets (Kepp/Blum/Michaels) and cheap young fringe guys (Bogusevic/Bourgeois/Sanchez).
The rotation will be above average, even if it doesn’t contain a true ace. Myers, Wandy, Happ, and Norris are fine in the 2-5 holes. The other slot will be adequately manned by one of Figgy, Paulino, or Lyles. That said, I’m not sold on Paulino (he’s too old to be considered a prospect, and I’m tired of waiting for him to stay healthy and put up #‘s), and I don’t want to rush Lyles, so I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing in a veteran SP on a 1-2 yr deal (somebody like Garland). The bullpen is more than adequately staffed with a host of young arms (Abad, Melancon, Gervacio, Meszaros, Lopez, Chacin) and under-team-control vets (Lyon, Lindstrom, Fulchino, Sampson, Arias). I would like us to have a dominant closer, but that’s a luxury at this stage, and it still remains to be seen if Lindstrom can be that type of guy.
So 2B/SS would be my primary area of focus, and the likely best way to address it would be to stand pat, reserve your payroll, and see what happens with teh current roster. If Manzella/Sanchez don’t drastically improve AND you’re in contention at the deadline next year, you can package some excess farm OFers and your excess cash to add an All-Star SS (if one is available).
Other than that, the team is definitely (finally) on the right track and should be competitive next year, a winning team in 2012, and a WS contender in 2013 if all stays on pace.
by Snake Diggity on Aug 31, 2010 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Possible trade chips next year:
On the farm (if we’re buyers): Towles, Clemens, Shuck, Martinez, Gaston, Lo, Nevarez- although no top 100 guys in there, 2-3 of them could easily be packaged with some payroll to entice a team to give up a quality player.
In the bigs (if we’re sellers): Keppinger, Pence, Bourn, Myers, Wandy, Figgy, Lyon, Lindstrom- lots of potential value to contenders in that bunch.
by Snake Diggity on Aug 31, 2010 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions
age issues
well I think defensively we are ok at short and no I am not giving up on wallace yet but he is not showing he can handle the bat at this level yet. Lee has 2 years on his contract and it would be a good to move him to first since he is 35 and not great at covering the outfield. The offense needs a big bat and to find a OF at age 27 or 28 who is a 25 homer type hitter with a little speed would be prudent as you could lock him into a long term deal before he becomes arbitration eligble and can get him for 2 or 3 million a year for 3 or 4 years.
I am not giving up on any one but plans have to be made and it is better to stock all you can now and next year if need be a trade can eb worked if we are in a pennat chase to get additional players. There are alot of varables in this and a pitcher with arm troubls at 28 or one like Byrdak or Figueroa who are 37 next year as well as MOehler who is 39 cannot be counted on for the long haul.
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