Astros Rally Late Again, Beat Phillies 3-2
by David Coleman on Aug 23, 2010 9:22 PM CDT
in Houston Astros News
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PrintOkay, we're at the point in the season when these game recaps all bleed together, right? You've seen this one before, with the Astros coming from behind and Carlos Lee providing a late-inning spark.
Er, well, maybe not that last part, but the Astros have been hitting well late in games in the past couple of months. These comebacks are getting to be a habit. I really enjoy seeing them beat a good team like this, especially when Joe Blanton looked absolutely unhittable with his 89 MPH fastball (srsly, Hunter? You struck out on a fastball that didn't crack 90 in the fourth inning. Be ashamed). Sidebar: Joe Blanton = a good comparable for a future Tanner Bushue? Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
As you've noticed, I have completely given over to my annoying habit of writing in question form lately. There have been two posts in three days where I basically just asked a bunch of questions instead of doing any hard-hitting journalism. But, I have noticed a recent trend to question whether the Astros have any legitimate top-of-the-rotation starters right now. Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez and JA Happ seem to be viewed more as No. 3 guys instead of No. 2 or No. 1s.
What is a No. 1? To me, it's a guy who you know gives you the chance to win every time he's out there. He's the hope at the end of a four-game losing streak. He's the ace you hope can stare down the other team. He's the guy who can strike out over a guy per inning and regularly will fan eight, nine or 10 guys a game.
Well, Myers struck out nine tonight. Wandy struck out 10 on Saturday and Happ struck out six in six innings on Friday. In fact, Happ has struck out at least seven in every one of starts but the one-inning disaster. That's what you want, right? A guy who can get out of jams with a strikeout, right?
So, what else does a No. 1 do? He pitches deep into games, taking pressure off the bullpen while allowing only one or two runs and keeping the good guys with a chance to win. Myers has given up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. Isn't that a top of the rotation guy?
I know a lot of this categorization relies on a guy dominating in the playoffs, which these guys really haven't done yet. I'll give you that. But, what else do you want out of a starter? Are these classifications just on stuff? If so, doesn't that miss the whole point of the exercise? Shouldn't we be more worried about the results than grading their skills?
I don't know what I think, actually. I want to believe that Happ and Myers and Wandy could be a great top of the rotation, but I have my doubts about whether they can sustain this performance long-term. I can see why those doubts would translate into grading them as middle-of-the-rotation guys. That makes sense and I'm sure that's what a lot of you mean when you talk about this rotation. I'm just not entirely sure I buy the idea of a No. 1 being any different from what we've seen from Myers and Co. in the past two months.
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I want to see more video of Q's pick off of Werth..
They only had one highlight up on Astros.com and you couldn’t see anything cause the cameraguy wasn’t focused on 2nd base!
There has been statistical work on what rotation slot numbers really mean, but I doubt those results jive with what most fans mean when they say, “this guys is a No. 1” or “this guy is a No. 2.” Those studies are based on the actual range of performances for each No. 1, No. 2, No.3, etc. in the league. I think generally the performance levels for each rotation spot are worse than fans usually ascribe to the spot. For instance, this study found the following average ERAs paired up with rotation slots:
No. 1 3.60
No. 2 4.14
No. 3 4.59
No. 4 5.10
No. 5 6.24
I think most people are viewing No. 1 pitchers as something like top 10 starting pitchers. Obviously two thirds of teams will not have a No. 1 pitcher by that definition. But I don’t necessarily think that teams must have a top 10 pitcher to contend or make the playoffs. (I think that kind of “ace” probably aids a team advancing through the playoff more than the relative effect on the regular season team record.) My point is that a rotation full of No. 2’s and No. 3’s probably is better than a No. 1, a No. 3, and No. 5’s for the remaining slots.
I have to agree with that. I think the term Ace starter and true number 1 starter are exaggerated. Slots for pitchers are over-hyped. There are only so many “ace” starters and there has to be at least a No. 1 starter for each team like you said. If it was how many fans perceive it, only Cy Young caliber pitchers would be considered No. 1s that season and there aren’t that many Cy Young pitchers in a season.
IMO, I’m completely happy with our rotation and what it can be next season. Myers and Wandy can put up No. 1 caliber stats. Paulino has the “stuff” of a No. 1 pitcher. Wandy can strike guys out at a No. 1 pitcher rate as can Happ.
Aces
The term ‘ace’ has been over used this season. I never took ‘ace’ to mean ‘number 1 starter’ because every team has a pitcher that goes first but not every team has an elite pitcher. But this trading season had the media throwing around the term ‘ace’ pretty liberally. I wouldn’t consider Oswalt an ace any more or Haren or Lilly. Yet all three were called aces on a regular basis leading up to the dead line. Just like every team has a leadoff man but not every team has a good one.
And if people think you can’t make the playoffs without a Lee or a Hallady, just look at the Reds. I think that’s what staff of Myers, Wandy, Paulino, Norris, and Happ can do. The difference is that the Reds have the bats to back them up.
Myers is having a career at this point, his ERA+ is 132 his next best seasons were 120 and 118 back in 2006 and 2005 respectively. Other than those 3 seasons he’s been average to below average in the other 6 seasons. I’m not saying he’s going to regress or anything next year, but could easily become a number two, three, or four starter next year.
Which does not bother me considering the rest of the rotation is pretty solid and any one of the other pitchers could step up.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 24, 2010 7:22 AM CDT up reply actions
playoffs are a different animal
For the regular season I agree that overall team ERA is what matters. But I think in the playoffs, when both teams rotations are shortened to the top 2-3 pitchers, and the best offenses generally on display, that’s when the true value of an ace comes to the fore. Clemens-Pettite-Oswalt managed to carry us to a World Series despite an average offense, not that long ago. I don’t think a rotation of 2’s and 3’s could’ve gotten us there.
I don’t think Bushue is an eventual Joe Blanton. I project Bushue to have a little more velocity. On a good night, Bushue already hits 90 on most of this fastballs. Bushue has tons of projection left to eventually have a low 90’s fastball. He won’t hit 95 consistently, but I think he’ll likely hit 93 consistently, maybe 92, when its all said and done.
Maybe my stats are wrong, but I’m seeing Happ averaging around 5-6 strikeouts a game, and never even reaching 7 in a game this season.
by seanbergmanrules on Aug 23, 2010 10:42 PM CDT reply actions
He has 24 strikeouts in 5 starts for Houston
Which is just under 5 strikeouts per game. I guess David mixed up Happ’s stats with someone elses.
Chris Johnson for ROY!
by RocketsAstros on Aug 24, 2010 6:15 AM CDT up reply actions
According to fangraphs’ stats, Happ has over 7 K/9 this season. Baseball-Reference shows him with 8.5 K/9 for Houston this season. The comparisons are normally done on a 9 inning basis. Divide Ks into IP and multiply by 9 innings. Happ has 24 Ks in 25 IP, or almost a K per inning for Houston.
Yeah, I was looking at FanGraphs and typing too fast. I mixed up his ground ball numbers for that start (11) with his strikeouts (6). But, he’s still striking out almost one per inning, which is very solid.
I’m a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast foods.
--Ron F'ing Swanson
by David Coleman on Aug 24, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
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Chicago
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Cincinnati
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Houston
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St. Louis
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(updated 2.16.2012 at 12:05 AM CST)
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