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Bored at work: Minor Questions for the Board

 

I posted this on the Minor League recap thread, but figured it might not get any play given that thread may be dead, so here's a re-post to help me get through the remainder of my unproductive workday:

-Who are the everyday OFers in AAA next year (will Martinez and Gaston be promoted)?

-What is the ceiling for these guys: Barnes, Simunic, Hinze, Goebbert, Cruz, Grimmett, Nevarez, Carpenter, Clark, Berner, Godfrey, Trinidad, and Alvino?

-Is TJ Steele already a forgotten man?

-Could Jack Shuck play 2B?

-Should they give Clemens some time at 3rd and C next season if Wallace looks to have 1B locked down?

-Why the fast promo for Bryce Lane?

-Where does Heath start and end next year?

-Who makes each team’s rotation next year (seems like very few slots are guaranteed)?

-Are there any closer arms out there?

-Who makes your top 5 overrated and top 5 underrated guys in the farm right now?




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I'll repost my answer

Whew, lots of questions, I’ll do the best I can… -Martinez will definitely be promoted, Gaston will probably be promoted. I can see Shuck, Gaston and Martinez getting the most time. I’m hoping Bogey and Bourgeious are the 4th/5th OFers next season which leaves DeLome and Locke as the reserves and DHs.

-Barnes is an organizational player, but maybe a late blooming reserve OFer. Simunic is a super-utility player, capable of playing every position, although not great at it. Hinze is an avg. power hitting 1B at best. Goebbert is probably an average RF/LF at best. Grimmett is a 5th starter or swing man capable of providing solid innings. He’s very young still and has some promise, but don’t expect a mid-rotation guy out of him. Nevarez has closer stuff but his command will leave him as a set-up man at best. David Carpenter is probably an average middle reliever. Kirk Clark and David Berner might be a setup guys but more likely a middle releivers. Wander Alvino, Kyle Godfrey, and Jose Trinidad look like middle relievers to me, although I like Godfrey and Trinidad more than most and see them as a chance at being above average middle relievers. Polin Trinidads window of opportunity seems to have closed. He’ll likely be tried as a LOOGY next year.

-Steele isn’t forgotten, just disappointing with results and injury issues. He’ll likely repeat CC and I hope he can put it together, he has nice tools. Although, I’m with David and don’t consider him a 5-tool player the way the FO considers him.

-Shuck at 2B is an interesting idea. Unfortunately, I think the FO would have attempted it already at this point, but I could be wrong. Just based on SB numbers and his getting most of his time at LF, I think he might struggle with reads a little.

-I think the FO has pretty much given up on Clemens at any other position. He just wasn’t that good at catcher and he’d be a backup at the position, and typically you want your backup to be solid defensively. Even though he’s athletic, his range was an issue at 3B which will probably prevent him from being used there again.

-Lancaster needed another OFer and probably didn’t want to have to pay for a wave of promotions at every level below Lancaster. So, they send one up from a team with an abundance of OFers, GCL. He had a great game last night, it’ll be interesting how he does here on out, but I still think he stays in EST next year.

-I can see Heath starting in Lancaster next year, but he may start in Lexington to continue working on his defense, with Bubby Williams getting the promotion. Although, I expect Heath to get at least half a season in Lancaster next year, he’ll be a fast mover.

-Next years rotations will be difficult to put together until later on. There will be many NRI who will take spots in RR rotation will prevent the advancement of some. Also, there could be a logjam in Lexington next year with four guys (Folty, Velasquez, Alaniz, Grills) from Greeneville and GCL with shots of being in the rotation plus the guys from Tri-City. I can see at least one going to Lancaster, but even there, you’ll have the guys Lexington moving up. The pitching coaches, managers, and FO will have some difficult decision on who to start next year.

-Chia-Jen Lo, Matt Nevarez, Danny Meszaros, Henry Villar (now starting) have closer stuff. There are a few others guys who have outside chances to be closers. If Rodney Quintero can’t develop his secondary offerings, he could be a closer candidate.

-Top 5 Overrated-Eesh, thats difficult being that everyone always downgrades Astros prospects. I think TJ Steele fits this category. Jio is now considered overrated, but I disagree with that. He’s just had a very rough season, but the tools are there.

-Top 5 underrated-I have to go with OremLK’s article from earlier on in the season and say Kyle Greenwalt. I also think J.D. will be underrated since he was a 20th round pick even though several are seeing him as a B prospect. I think Keuchel is underrated. Jose Altuve for his size. Shuck will be underrated as well for his lack of power.

by Subber10 on Aug 23, 2010 6:07 PM CDT reply actions  

Great answers! Thanks

-Barnes will have an opportunity to put himself on the map next year in Corpus. If he duplicates his LAN #‘s, he’ll be on the radar big time. I find that highly unlikely, but it’s good to see him succeed where he is at.

-I wonder what Houston will do beginning late next year when the upper level OF spots start getting crowded (that’s where the SHuck to 2B thought came from). There are up to 8 guys who could be in AA or higher next year, with Pence and Bourn set in the bigs (Shuck, Bogie, DeLome, Martinez, Gaston, Austin, Barnes, Steele). Something will have to give next season if they all do as well as we hope. That’s without factoring in Clemens, who I think will be a 4th OF/DH/1B reserve type at the big league level.

-I’ll be watchign Heath closely next year. If he can start hot at Lancaster and be in CC midway through, look out.

Here’s my rotations prediction:
AAA
Lyles, Keuchel, Wright, Arguello, NRI
AA- Seaton, Villar, Greenwalt, Urckfitz, NRI
A+- Bushue, Cruz, Grimmett, Shirley, Cisnero
A- Velasquez, Folty, Alaniz, Doran, Quevedo

Hard to predict; there’s a lot of guys left off those lists.

-I honestly don’t think any of those guys you list end up as quality big league closers. I don’t think Lo and Nevarez will have the control, and I don’t think Villar and Meszaros have the stuff. My pick would be Jorge De Leon; I’ve read he can hum it up there.

-Overrated: Kvasnicka, Mier, Bushue, Greenwalt, Doran
-Underrated: Martinez, Barnes, Simunic, Luis Cruz, Jorge De Leon

I think there are more underrated prospects (by the nat’l media) than there are overrated.

by Snake Diggity on Aug 24, 2010 12:55 PM CDT reply actions  

Barnes has a big hill to climb to become a legitimate prospect. At age 25 next season, thats not promising.

The logjam really isn’t that bad IMO. Gaston/Shuck/Martinez get the PT and hopefully Bogey is the majors. DeLome will be nothing more than DH/4th OF. Austin/Barnes/Steele will be the everday OFers for CC with Parejo being th 4th OF. DeLome, Parejo, and Barnes have no upside IMO.

I think Juan Minaya will continue to start in Lancaster next season, as well as Dydalewicz. I think David Duncan might get a rotation spot as well in CC. Shirley has to develop his secondary offerings to be a starter, so I see him in Lexington with Doran, a much more well rounded pitcher being in Lancaster.

I honestly don’t see many of those guys being quality players either, that’s their ceiling though. The majority of them have floors as organizational players, and they likely end up somewhere int he middle. Danny Meszaros does have the stuff actually. He gets his FB up to the same area as Jorge De Leon. I think Meszaros will be a very solid above average reliever. I’m pretty high on him. Villar also has a really good arm, doesnt bring the same heat, but has better secondary offerings than a guy like Nevarez.

by Subber10 on Aug 24, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

overrated/underrated

Overrated:

Jonathan Villar, Albert Cartwright, Jose Altuve, Dan Meszaros, Henry Villar

Underrated:

Patrick Urckfitz, Delino DeShields, Jonathan Gaston, Dallas Keuchel, Jiovanni Mier

Underrated/Overrated discussions are strange ones, because usually players deemed to be in either category are really liked or appreciated by some and really disliked or dismissed by others.

My overrated list, is mainly players overrated by Astros fans, though I’ve seen Jonathan Villar rated quite highly on the national stage relative to other Astros prospects, which I completely disagree with. My underrated list has more national names (plus Urckfitz), and I’d say mainly they are underrated nationally, and in the case of Gaston and maybe DeShields, underrated by Astros fans as well.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 2:24 PM CDT reply actions  

and...

I actually kind of like all the guys on the overrated list too. I just don’t see the position players having much of a shot to become successful starting position players, and the relievers might make it on some level, but I don’t think they have the stuff to be 7th/8th/9th inning types.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

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