Questioning the Astros Lineup: Rebuilding and Beyond
by David Coleman on Aug 23, 2010 1:30 PM CDT
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PrintI didn't intend my post from Sunday to be a bummer. I was just really intrigued by the question in this FanPost and wanted to follow it's logic a little more. So, the question I wanted to discuss today is whether this lineup is good enough to contend (provided some of the young guys improve)? If not, where are spots in the lineup where the team can upgrade?
For the first question, I have to think things will look up. Hunter Pence has proven himself to be a reliable, yet unspectacular, force in the lineup. He's good enough to be the best player on a bad team, but probably wouldn't be a 5 or 6 WAR player for the next couple of seasons. The question becomes, how does the rest of the lineup shake out. We know Jason Castro will be at catcher (or we assume), Brett Wallace will be at first and Chris Johnson will be at third. We should assume Michael Bourn will be the center fielder for a while, but that leaves very few positions where the Astros can add a player with some thump. Shortstops and second basemen who hit like that are few and far, leaving just one position open to affect the lineup: left field.
The problem is that the Astros are more than just one impact bat away from a good offense. I know I argued recently that you could build a successful team where every player has a WAR around 2 or 2.5, but the Astros don't even have that right now. So, where can they upgrade? Will there eventually come a time when Austin Wates or Delino DeShields, Jr. needs to step in for the immense defense but questionable bat of Bourn? Will their presumed prowess with the bats make up for their lack of Bourn's elite defensive and baserunning skills? That's the question and one the front office will need to answer before they know if the rebuilding effort is over.
I realize that players like Castro and Wallace will bat better than they have. I also know that Chris Johnson will not be a career .330 hitter in the majors. So, there will be a leveling out. But, this is clearly and offense that needs work.
What do you think? Too harsh? Not harsh enough?
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I think all of the infield positions are question marks. I wouldn’t guarantee that any of the current starters around the infield will be starters by mid-year next season. That’s not to say that none of them have potential to be good players. Most of them do have the potential to be 2.5 – 3.0 WAR players. (But assuming that all of them fulfill their potential is like banking on a lottery ticket.) My point is that none of them have proven anything yet. I would have back up plans for all of them. I’m not sure that any of them should be handed a starting job next season; they should have to compete with whomever the Astros can bring in at their positions.
In the outfield, Bourn is a question mark too. Will he ever return to the Michael Bourn offensive profile of 2009? I think “yes,” but I can’t say for sure. It’s possible that the Astros would be better off platooning Bourgeois and Bourn in CF next year. (If Bogey was RH, that might even be a stronger platoon case.) We pretty much know what we have in Pence. We may have to put up with Lee, if he is untradeable, and hope for regression in the direction of his career numbers.
To a some degree, next season may be one of the more difficult and important seasons for the Astros’ front office and coaches. They will have to evaluate players very well and make some decisions on who has a future or not.
Wasn't 2009 sort of an aberration year for Bourn?
I don’t remember him batting exceptiionally well prior to that. As a matter of fact he was terrible in 2008. I think what we get this year is what we can reasonably expect from him in the future.
Chris Johnson for ROY!
by RocketsAstros on Aug 23, 2010 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Bourn’s plate discipline stats in 2009 were similar to his time as a part time player in Philly. His offense in 2009 was similar to his last AAA season. So, I would tend to view 08 and 10 as aberrations to some extent. But I’m not certain, as I said. Maybe Bourn’s true level is somewhere between 2010 and and 2009, I don’t know. I am fairly certain that Bourn has suffered from an unsustainably bad BABIP this year. I would be willing to bank on an improvement on that basis alone. But is it enough improvement to make his performance acceptable? That, I don’t know.
there isn't enough impact
in the lineup, and as good as Pence has been, I don’t see him being a 3-4 bat. Down the road this might be a problem because we still don’t have many guys who profile as pure sluggers.
J.D. Martinez starts 2011 in AAA, and Lee gets 1/2 months to save his job as everyday left fielder, that’s what I’d do.
middle infield has been underwhelming. Needs tinkering in offseason.
As far as contending...
As long as the Cards continue to trot out Pujols & Holiday with Carpenter, Wainwright, and Garcia with La Russa, it will be very difficult to keep up with without some major upgrades
I just hope ariel ovando pans out to hit like they say he should if so in 3-4 years maybe less we will have a true slugger. I am ready for this kid to get started.
Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa. ~Bob Veale, 1966
by CoolBreeze3 on Aug 23, 2010 2:16 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I think the infield has the makings of a pretty good one.
I think Castro will be our backstop of the future. Wallace I feel can be a poor man’s Billy Butler. He can hit for a pretty good average, mediocre pop and the defense will develop. But with those ham hocks of thighs, I’d like to see Bags work with him to utilize the power from those legs to drive the ball out of here and not rely so heavily on upper body strength. I feel Johnson has 3rd locked down for now. As for the outfield it’s anyone’s guess. But I do strongly feel Bourn should remain intact in the lineup. He brings tremendous speed to the top of the lineup and Gold Glove defensive ability in the outfield. He certainly will be a cornerstone in our lineup I feel.
it's a bad situation
when we as Astros fans are holding out hope for a 16 year old who hasn’t played in affiliated games yet to come and save the organization in the next 3-4 years….
This team is going to be mediocre at best with the current lineup and pitching staff (barring any major and surprising moves) for the near future, and maybe longer. Next year the rotation will feature 3 #3 pitchers and a couple #4/5 types, no closer and average set up men.
Disagree on the pitching staff
I think it has a couple of guys who ride the borderline between no. 2/3 starters (Wandy and Myers), three guys who ride the borderline between no. 3/4 starters with upside to possibly break out and be better (Norris, Paulino, and Happ), and a potential no.2/3 starter waiting in the wings at AAA.
We have lots of good relief options if Gervacio and Arias get healthy in the offseason, and Lindstrom has shown that he can be a good closer when healthy.
I think this is at least an average pitching staff with the upside to be well above average if things go right.
Our core of position players (or lack thereof) is what will hold us back from being better than an average team overall, but there is help on the way up from the farm system. And I’m not talking about Ovando.
I agree – I think that our pitching will keep us respectable.
by pacbellpilgrim on Aug 23, 2010 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I know you guys tend to look at the Astros much more positively than I do. Myers has been a bit lucky this year, Wandy’s been erratic his whole career, not to mention he’s not exactly known to be durable and JA Happ is probably a #4, but could be a #2 on a bad team and a #4 on a playoff caliber team, to me that’s a #3 just like the other two. Norris and Paulino have a long way to go performance wise and staying on the field before they should get any consideration as a mid rotation type starter.
The problem with the disagreement on the pitching staff is that your talking alot of if’s and potential. If these guys break out or if these guys stay healthy. But if these guys don’t stay healthy and they don’t break out, you’re looking at having a potentially bad pitching staff next year. Because yeah, Lyles is going to be AAA if not the majors next year, but what legit options are coming up right after him?
by Reverend Koosh on Aug 23, 2010 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions
How is Wandy not durable? he’s started 30 games in 3 of the last 6. His first (2005) he wasn’t up right away and still started 22 games. This year he’s on pace for 30 so that would make 4 out of 6. In 2008 he didn’t have 30 but still made 25 starts.
He’s been erratic but his ERA currently sits at 4.00. If he continues to pitch like has been recently he’ll have a sub 4 ERA. Which btw would be the third season in a row he’s had a sub 4 ERA.
by Timothy De Block on Aug 23, 2010 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
how does a guy who has 24/25 quality starts considered lucky. i understand luck has a lot to do with pitching but 25 quality starts easily makes myers an alright 1, but a very good two. And on the wandy being erratic, lefties take awhile to make it in the league. Now im not calling wandy cliff lee, but lee came in the league in 2002 and wasnt considered good until 2008. look at lees numbers, he was mediocre until 2008. mix in happ, who will be a solid 2, norris, who is a wild card, and lyles/ paulino thrown in at the 5th spot. you have to like the rotation. the question is the astros in the future. If the FO can find one ace arm, i really like our staff in the future years…
by strokin_stros on Aug 23, 2010 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
There’s nothing wrong with Wandy. His BABIP and FIP indicated that he was unlucky early in the season, but that has turned around with his current string of excellent games. In the end he probably will end up with performance about where people expected—except for W/L record, which isn’t indicative of performance. Wandy may end up with his second straight 200 IP season. Durable?
It's not a matter of optimism, but realism
It’s not unrealistic to envision a scenario where every starter in the rotation next season has under 4.00 ERA. Not many teams can say that. Throw in the fact that we have one of the best pitching prospects in baseball at AAA and I’d say our rotation figures to be very solid.
I disagree that Wandy has been particularly erratic in a long-term context. From 2005-2009 he consistently improved each and every season. He seems to have settled in around 3.40-3.70 FIP which is a very good no. 2 starter. He’s been very durable since the middle of 2008. Start to start there is a sense that he is erratic, in part because of his home/road splits, but it evens out in the long run.
I disagree that Paulino and Norris have a long way to go to be mid-rotation starters. Look at their ZiPS rest of season projections: 3.93 FIP for Paulino, 4.15 for Norris. ZiPS is just a tool and isn’t the end all for arguments, but it’s useful, and here I agree with it. Performance-wise, they are already there and are getting better. Health is more of a concern, but with one of the best pitching prospects in baseball waiting at AAA, I’m not too worried about it.
I am not waiting for Ovando to “save the franchise” just stating that I am excited to see what he actually does.
Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa. ~Bob Veale, 1966
by CoolBreeze3 on Aug 23, 2010 3:18 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Getting 20-25 HRs from your corner infielders and outfielders
isn’t going to cut it.
Astros need some thumpers in the line-up and I’m not sure there are any in the pipeline.
Placeholders at most positions
But at least they are young and improving placeholders. I’d rather have that than a mix-match of free agents. We can hope that stronger players are on their way in AA and below, if all goes well with their development.
Locke and Bogusevic could be added to the mix next year, but we’d need to just cut our losses with C. Lee in order to free up some playing time. Even with these two guys though, we’re not looking at significant production – just the entertainment/curiosity of seeing how they adjust and manage at the MLB level.
I’m content being a young team in the middle of the pack for the next couple of years with these guys. Player development at all levels should be the priority.
2-3 yr outlook
Lineup:
1. Bourn CF
2. Sanchez/Manzo/Villar SS
3. Kepp/Cartwright/Altuve 2B
4. Lee/Martinez LF
5. Pence RF
6. Johnson 3B
7. Wallace 1B
8. Castro C
Those 2-3 slots are brutally weak, but the rest of the players should be at or above average for their lineup slots. Wallace and Castro have a chance to be much better than bottom of the order hitters. The bench should be fine, as there are multiple IF and OF guys in the upper minors who would be fine bench guys.
Rotation: Myers, Wandy, Happ, Norris, Figgy/Paulino/Lyles
Bullpen: Lindstrom, Lyon, Lopez, Abad, Melancon, Gervacio, Chacin
The only weakness is the lack of a true ace, but the back end of the rotation is strong enough to make this an average or better rotation. Obviously the playoffs would mean trouble in a short series, but generally speaking the rotation would be fine.
The bullpen is set and should also have plenty of arms waiting in AAA (the above list leaves off guys like Wright, Meszaros, Villar, Nevarez, and Lo).
I’ve repeated this several times on other threads, but this teams is 3 players away from being legitimately in the mix: 2 top of the order hitters and an ace pitcher. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be those guys in the upper farm, so they will probably have to be acquired via trade or free agency. Fortunately, there will be some payroll available to make these moves.
was writing the same post.
just two things about the line up… you cant give up on bourn yet. the league is about adjustments, wait for the end of net year. i believe you have who ever makes the cut at SS between Villar and Mier. Then DDJ at second base in the future, line up could look like this.
Bourn
DDJ/Kepp
Pence
Johnson
Wallace
Martinez/Lee
castro
Villar.
untill we see DDJ, im projecting him in the two spot. the contact/speed/power in the two spot behind bourn could be murderous. then again DDJ could develop into a leadoff option. Kepps bat control should never leave the 2 spot because all the hit and run options he gives you. plus double machine looks good in the two hole. Pences speed/power is ideal in the three spot.
The middle of the order is where it gets interesteing. should johnson be 4 when martinez or lee could be there. Wallace as a lefty makes a great 5 hitter. This line up could be pretty deep in two years….
by strokin_stros on Aug 23, 2010 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions
3 players perhaps, but hard to find
You’ve shuffled the lineup such that it minimizes the number of holes, but makes the holes harder to fill. How are you going to find a legit #3 power-hitting 2B? And a shortstop who can bat average/above-average at the 2 slot? And of course #1 pitchers don’t grow on trees either…I don’t think it’s a realistic way to build a contender. Probably it’s more realistic to go for WAR 1-2 type players across the board, and beef up in one or two slots as the market allows.
3 players perhaps, but hard to find ( continued )
…and hope that we get lucky with our pitching staff: that at least one of Norris, Lyles, Paulino breaks out to #1-#2 terrirtory.
RE: Lineup holes, my rationale is that a player or 2 listed in the bottom 1/2 of that lineup could develop into a 2-3 hole hitter (Pence, CJ, Wallace, and Castro all have the kind of upside), so, just as an example, if Wallace and Castro hit their ceiling, it’d look like this:
1. Bourn
2. Castro
3. Wallace
4. Lee/Martinez
5. Pence
6. CJ
7. Keppinger
8. Manzo
Basically, all 4 of Kepp, Manzella, Wallace, and Castro can be assumed better than average 7-8 hole hitters, but none are guaranteed to be 2-3 hole guys.
RE: Rotation, I think an ace is a necessity of a contender. Most championship teams have more than 1. I’m all for 1-2 WAR types on the offensive side, but I still think to win championships, you need at least 2 pitchers who are guaranteed to give you an edge in a 3 game series.
by Snake Diggity on Aug 23, 2010 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions
i think castro will end up having to much of an “impact bat” to hit 2nd. not saying that hes going hit 20-25 bombs i just like his gap power and approach for an rbi position. i would switch castro and kepp and pence and wallace… wallace seems like hes going to be a good hitter, but i think pence in the 5 spot rather than the 3 is wasting his athleticism. speed infront of hitters… and i think wallace is going to end up a better hitter than pence.
by strokin_stros on Aug 23, 2010 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions
what do people think is a realistic timetable for DDJ?
I think Norris still has a ways to go. He showed flickers of excellent stuff early in the season, but his last few starts have really impressed me. I think there is no.2 potential there.
shortstop seems to be the weak link, but you always trade off better defense there.
Castro, Wallace and Johnson are young, and they’ll all have time to develop, and maybe they’ll nail down their positions for the foreseeable future, but then again maybe they won’t, and guys in the farm system spring up (I’m thinking of Ben Heath in particular, early days)>
I would argue that for the purposes of any reasonable discussion, it can be assumed that the landscape of any team is largely unpredictable after a 3 year time horizon. I think it can also be assumed that any player lower than full season ball is more than 3 years away. Guys like Castro and Wallace who become MLB regular starters 2 years after being drafted are EXTREMELY rare. And HS players who will require a significant amount of development like DDJ take even longer than normal.
by Snake Diggity on Aug 23, 2010 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions
The revamp
We need to get the Bagster to work on Bourn’s hitting. With our CF being the size of a small airport, we can’t sacrifice D for O out there. We’re OK for now at first, third, RF, C and, to me, CF. CLee is our LF at least for next year, and whatever else you can say about him, he plays every day and he is always a threat to go deep. If it were up to me, I’d say spend the big bucks on a frontline starter (I know … get in line, right?) and the bullpen. We’ve made the jump and gotten younger. We need to see how some of these position players — Wallace, CJ, Sanchez, Manzella, Castro — pan out before we make any more moves there.
I did an OPS/ERA (both this year and career avg) analysis of each player on our roster compared to the corresponding player on each NL playoff team’s rosters (Atl, Phi, SD, and Cincy). The results were interesting.
-Obviously, playoff teams are getting MUCH more out of their Catchers and 1b than Houston is. The average OPS of each playoff team’s 1B and C is over 800. Castro and Wallace are averaging around 500. Ouch.
-Michael Bourn is the worst offensive CF in the group (behind Cabrera, Victorino, Venable, and Stubbs).
-Chris Johnson is the only position player on the Astros roster who is outperforming his playoff counterparts.
-Bourgeois is NOT hitting nearly as well as the other teams’ 5th OFer.
-The rotation in Houston, while lacking an ace, has pitched comparibly to the other teams.
-Lindstrom’s #’s are not on par with his playoff-bound counterparts (Wagner, Lidge, Bell, Cordero).
So what does this mean? I think it could serve as a decent guide for Ed Wade’s offseason plans:
-At this point, we’re banking on Wallace and Castro getting better. Much, much better.
-Bourn’s value on the basepaths and in the field make his underperformance at the plate tolerable, but I still think there is some room for development for him.
-While Q is a FANTASTIC defensive backstop, I think it would serve them well to bring in a better offensive backup catcher (think Torrealba or Victor Martinez).
-A better hitting infielder must be brought in to replace Manzella or Sanchez. It is the team’s most glaring need (aside from needing improved performance out of Wallace/Castro).
-With the minor league depth at OF, I don’t see replacing Bourgeois with a free agent as a necessity.
-My analysis has convinced me to back off the claim that they need to add a frontline starting pitcher. The 5 they have now (Myers, Wandy, Happy, Norris, Paulino + Figgy) are more than adequate given the state of the franchise.
So, in conclusion, Ed Wade should:
1. Sign a SS/2B who can hit 2nd or 3rd in the lineup.
2. Sign a backup catcher who can actually hit.
3. Continue to evaluate/develop the upper minors for relievers and reserve outfielders.
This would be my 2011 roster now:
1. Bourn CF
2. Keppinger 2B
3. Miggy Tejada SS (signed to 2 yr low cost deal)
4. Lee LF
5. Pence RF
6. Johnson 3B
7. Wallace 1B
8. Castro C
Bench: Bogusevic, Locke, Torrealba (2 yr deal), Blum, Manzella
Rotation: Myers, Wandy, Happy, Norris, Paulino
Bullpen: Figueroa, Byrdak, Melancon, Gervacio, Lopez, Lyon, Lindstrom
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