Roy Oswalt and the Trade Market

A New York Post article said that the Mariners and Yankees were in close discussion over the weekend, and that the Yankees would send Montero, who is a top 5 hitting prospect, and that the Mariners would ask for 1 or 2 other prospects. How close they are to a deal is anyone’s guess, even though the Post claims that they are near a deal. As I said in a previous post, the Astros and Mariners can help each other out by insisting on the high possible trade values for their ace pitchers. Obviously it helps the Astros out if the Mariners trade Lee first and get top dollar in return, since that will affect how teams look at trade value for an ace pitcher. I continue to think that the Rangers will have difficulty meeting the trade deadline in the bankruptcy process, for some of the reasons you mention.

However, there is an alternate view that the auction process could facilitate meeting the trade deadline, if everything goes according to plan. The plan is that the judge’s restructuring officer will recommend a bid, MLB will determine whether it will approve the bidder, the creditors will be given an opportunity to sign off on the bid selection, and the ownership change will be approved in a July 22d confirmation hearing. This process makes it more difficult for the creditors to object, since they get a new bid process. If a new bidder was selected, though, and MLB rejected the bidder, I assume that would cause the creditors to go ballistic because the default bid would be the Greenburg-Ryan group, and that might or might not cause them to raise issues which change the judge’s decision. However, if you assume that no bidder can meet the requirements to outbid the Greenburg-Ryan group offer by $20 million (plus agree to pay a walk away fee to that group), which is very possible, then the whole thing conceivably could get done by July 22d with an approval vote by MLB in the next 24 hours, leaving time for Greenburg-Ryan to spend their own money on trades.

I think it’s more likely Cliff Lee will be moved first before Oswalt trade talk really heats up.

I’m starting to get tired of the outside media bashing Ed Wade’s every comment on every subject. It used to be all about relievers. Now they are laughing at him because a report said he has been asking for 3 prospects and the trading team pays Oswalts full salary. They take everything so literally. But, it’s like you said, it’s all tactic. You go buy a car, they have a list price but you and I both know they will sell that car for a lot less. They put that price on there knowing they will go down. They simply put the price higher to begin with so when they do come down, its actually at the price they originally planned to make on it. 3 prospects is simply the asking price. People don’t need to take everything so serious, he has to haggle just like everyone else. He is going to publically say what he really hope to get in return and then honestly expect to get that in return. Don’t blame Ed Wade when your own teams GM is not smart enough to use negotiation tactics.

That leaves some desperate teams or the Oswalt sweepstakes. The Twins and the Rangers in particular really, really want a good starting pitcher. The Rays may be pushed to acquire one as well to keep up with NYY. There are also the Mets, but for whatever reason, they’ve been playing it extremely cool about Roy as compared to other pitchers and no it sounds like they are after Ted Lilly instead. Then there are the shadow contenders like the Dodgers and the Phillies.

It’s very good for us that the Lee deal is getting done now. It leaves plenty of time for other teams to drive Oswalt’s price up with bidding for him. Nobody is going to want to be the team left without reinforcements for their starting rotation.

First off, I’m a newer reader to this website, and appreciate the knowledge that the writers and contributors have here. For someone like me, who’s not a stat head and doesn’t understand all the nuisances of the business-side of baseball, could y’all tell me some of the possible trade pieces the Astros would want/get if Roy is traded? Basically, of the teams that are likely trade partners, who would they give up for Roy (both if Drayton picks up part of the tab or doesn’t)? I’d love to see Roy go to the Rangers since the Rangers are another Texas team, and I assume the Rangers have enough talent to make a trade. Is it possible, even with the Rangers’ bankruptcy issue that if Drayton picked up some of Oswalt’s contract a deal could be made between the two teams? Or is that pretty much a moot point with the team’s ownership in limbo? Thanks!

I’d take Scheppers, Kiker and Beavan from the Rangers if they offered.

So now the only way Roy will stay in Texas is if he stays with the Astros. Lance is starting to heat up and Lee is slowly but surely getting better. He just hasn’t really been the same since that broken finger. As much as I hate to say it, I’m fine now with trading away our stars and becoming cellar-dwellers for a few seasons if we can rebuild our farm system. Drayton on the other hand…

So…. now what? : /

Dodgers?…for Oswalt to Dodgers for SS prospect Dee Gordon, bat Kyle Russell, and a young arm?….I have no idea.

I know in division trades might not be the best, but what about Oswalt + Cash to the Reds for 1B Yonder Alonso, LHP Travis Wood, and OF prospect Juan Duran?