Would the Astros be better off with Carlos Lee on the bench?
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 6, 2010 9:00 AM CDT
in Stat Geeky
Email
PrintAmidst mounting frustration during the Astros loss on Sunday to the Padres, I tweeted the following "[a]t this point, I'd rather the Astros just release Carlos Lee." Lee had just lolligagged his way to a fly ball and tension boiled over. Did I really mean that I wanted the Astros to swallow tens of millions of dollars? No. Am I now curious about what that would actually look like through a logical and objective lens? Yes.
So let's do just that.
Lee is currently sitting at -1.0 WAR. Yes, that is correct. He of the $19 million salary this season has actually cost the Astros a win versus if they were playing some quad-A scrub. Is some of this attributable to bad luck at the plate? Yes. Is a larger portion of it attributable to Lee's appalling fielding abilities? Most definitely. Lee's three year average according to DRS is -4 and for UZR/150 it is -8.3.
The defensive aspect of Lee's drain on the Astros ability to win major league baseball games is not a very hard case to make. Even if UZR's park adjustment are punishing Lee unfairly, it is safe to say that he is about a half win drain on the Astros team. Heretofore, Carlos has been able to offset his paltry defense with around twenty runs above average with his bat. Even with that contribution though, Lee has been unable provide enough performance to justify his contract.
Lee has still been providing value, though, which at least justifies his spot on the field. But Lee is below replacement level right now. That means that we could get better performance from someone like Jason Bourgeois, someone who is freely available and comes at a league minimum cost. Or even Jason Michaels, who is actually playing above replacement level baseball.
This skin deep analysis isn't getting us to the question I am trying to answer, though. As I stated at the outset, a large portion of Lee's failings to be an above replacement level player are the result of misfortune. Perhaps David Coleman is the root cause of it. I don't know. I don't want to point fingers. Either way, we do know that Lee's numbers indicate that he should perform better. The law of averages inclines us to believe that the Carlos Lee will perform somewhere around his career norms. We could even include a discount for aging and he still performs above replacement level. Lee's ZIPs Rest of the Season update sees him as being five weighted runs above average, which is much better than his ten weighted runs below average he has been performing.
This leads me to believe that the Astros should expect Carlos to start playing like an above replacement player. The question that the Astros have to answer is will Lee's resurgent bat be enough to outpace other players with lesser holes in their defense? Trade offs and opportunity costs- a conundrum.
My policy recommendation is to be realistic. For the time being, the answer to my question is a distinct maybe. There are suitable options to alleviate the drain that Lee is on the Astros win column. A long with the ability to mix and match players as needed, perhaps Lee does not need to see the top of the batting order for some time. But I do not believe the Astros, at this point, are better off without Carlos because his bat didn't suddenly lose the talent that has allowed him to be an above-average hitter, who's simply overpaid. His offensive numbers will return to a level that makes him more valuable than Bourgeois and Michaels, but he is not there right now. Would the Astros have been better off without Carlos Lee for the first eighty-two games they played? The numbers say yes. For the next eighty, though, I expect the answer to be no.
Now, once this season is done and the Astros have to ability to trade Lee for pennies on the dollar to an AL team that can use him as a DH, I say Ed Wade needs to take whatever deal he can make. And I mean it- whatever deal he can make.
12 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It's hard to disagree with the numbers, isn't it?
But then again, there are those daw gawn intangibles. Like those clutch hits to win or secure a victory. Things like that could cause one to re-think getting rid of him. You know, sometimes when a veteran is “going through the motions”, a little ride on the pines may be just the thing he needs to wake his over paid a$$ up!!! But, I do agree with you that the last half of this season is going to “tell the tale” as far as what to do with Carlos next year. I’m hoping it’s favorable….otherwise…what am I gonna do with this stick horse?
In my opinion, No....
Lee can be frustrating to watch(ok, maybe VERY FRUSTRATING), but I think the Astros are better off with Lee’s bat in the lineup.
Next season, YES try and trade him.
A move to first base might help
Then again, it might not; he could be just as bad of a defender there. But if Prince Fielder can play decent defense at 1B, maybe Lee can learn how to do so as well.
Obviously, that doesn’t help this year.
Carlos Lee looked decent at first his few games there in 2009.
Lee at first, however , presupposes no Berkman there. I prefer Berkman, but his returning in 2011 is no sure deal, either.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 6, 2010 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I was thinking about this yesterday, and came up with some random thoughts…
1. If Carlos Lee was released, would he even try to sign on with another team? I know Lee at league minimum would be appealing to some teams, but would Lee even care? My guess is that he would go back to his ranch and cash the checks as the Astros mailed them in….
2. The Astros, as a team has an OPS of .634 (or something close to that), and Lee is currently sitting a .658, so it would make sense to replace the guys below him (Quintero, Feliz and Manzella), which has already been done, so maybe it is time to get a guy in there that can post a .700 OPS….
3. Is playing Carlos Lee everyday the worst thing the Astros can do going forward? They are on the hook for the near $40M for the next two years, and even a huge chunk of that if they were able to trade him. However, because his contract is so large, and it’s unlikely he’d sign with another team, the Astros should keep running out there, because with or without Lee, this is no playoff team and he’s not really blocking any prospects (23 year olds hitting .253 in AA doesn’t quite qualify for “prospect” status, unless your in a crappy farm system like the Astros). And running Lee out there does one of two things – increases whatever is left of any trade value OR he keeps costing the Astros games, which keeps them in the Anthony Rendon sweepstakes.
*side note, I honestly don’t think Anthony Rendon would be taken by the Astros 1st overall, since he is not a toolsy CF that projects as top of the lineup material.
carlos lee et al
it was time to rebuild a few yrs ago! now it is really time!.. astros need to rebuild around michael bourne, j castro, 3b johnson, keppinger at 2b is ok, also, manzella at ss, bourgueos might be ok in lf..?? pence, berkman, clee, pfeliz, on trade block.. keep starting pitching..except oswalt… oswalt is very good and has years left, but his time is limited and he is a big bargaining chip… trade for minor leaguers…get 5 or 6 good ones..put them in themix with above… myers, norris, paulino, good starters…wandy? trade if y ou can get something good…otherwise keep him…moehler..is good trade bait… after trades astros will have surplus $$$…. use it to shore up bp…hope the scouts have been working…. lets see what kind of gm wade is?… pence? if we are offered something quite good, then trade..otherwise keep him… he is an average rf and avg hitter…unlikely that he will ever be anything else..it depends on his trade value and what you have to pay him…do not succumb to temptation and get anyone old…magnus
didn’t Russ Ortiz get released by the D-backs with about $22m left on his contract?
Clutch? Intangibilities are very, well intangible. He’s got 11 go-ahead hits, but I have no idea whether that is good/bad/average.
Pujols has 11, Berkman has 10, Feliz has 1. I don’t think this means much at all, but hey.
Hopefully we can find someone dumb enough to take 3 years of Lee for about $30m. Someone gave Jarrod Washburn four years roughly $40m, why not? But then again, there would be that nice little no-trade clause that our ace GM got us.
keep in mind
the astros have been down alot so we should have a decent amount of go ahead hits…pujols and the cards have prolly been up alot
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 6, 2010 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Keep in mind that Lee had a .834 OPS in June. That is almost exactly his career OPS. So, I think there are signs that his batting gradually is reverting to norm. Interestingly, Lee has a much bigger LHP/RHP split this year, compared to his career split (which is only 4 or 5 points of OPS). His OPS vs. lefties is right where it is normally (.835), but his OPS vs. RHP is in the low .600’s. I’m not sure what that means; it may mean nothing. Or it could mean that he has some mechanical flaws which made him more vulnerable to RHP this year.
I share the frustration…I was just thinking during a game last week how I would prefer Michaels in LF (maybe after the same play that Stephen mentions). But you are right on the realism front. The Astros need to try and maximize Lee’s worth right now, so that perhaps he can be traded next year (it’s next year or never). The liklihood is that he will bat better in the second half, and it will make him more attractive to other teams. I also fear that if he were benched, he would create turmoil on the team. (I know that doesn’t sound like Lee, but he really, really hates sitting on the bench—-he made that clear in an interview with Greg Lucas last week). And that would be bad for the team, and it would definitely hurt his trade value.
That play in the fourth vs Padres
I reckon any decent left fielder breaks in and makes that play, either sliding to their knees or whatever. 2 runs saved.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
TCB Tweets!
Current Series
3 game series vs Rockies @ Minute Maid Park
|
Colorado Rockies
Friday, Apr 6, 2012, 6:05 PM CDT |
||
| Sat 04/07 | 6:05 PM CDT | |
| Sun 04/08 | 1:05 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 12:05 AM CST)
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
