On Roy Oswalt, Trades and Groupthink
by David Coleman on Jul 26, 2010 8:27 AM CDT
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PrintIn Orem's article about Dan Haren, one of the comments talked about avoiding the "groupthink" of the main stream opinions about a trade or prospect rankings. Since groupthink is a concept I find fascinating and try to avoid as much as possible, I thought it'd be informative to analyze the last few trades of big-name pitchers.
I looked at what kind of return the teams got, whether they traded for more pitchers or hitters, whether they traded for more major leaguers or prospects and whether any of those prospects were on the Top 100 lists. The question I was specifically trying to answer was if Ed Wade's trade demands were as ridiculous as people are making them sound.
For reference, it's been reported that Wade is looking for one or two major leaguers and two blue-chip prospects in return for Roy Oswalt and his contract. I take "blue chip" to refer to two Top 100 guys and that's what I'm going to use in this analysis. I also looked at the age of the players at the time of the trade and how many years and dollars left on their contracts.
In all, there were 11 trades that I looked at. Three of those happened this past winter, but the rest were trades from the July deadline over the past five years. There were eight of those, including the Dan Haren deal from Sunday. It's not a huge sample size, I know, but it does give us an idea of what was acceptable in these trades and can start to show a pattern. What that pattern may be is after the jump...
Let's look at the three trades over the winter to establish a base line.
Roy Halladay (33), 1 pitcher, 3 hitters, 0 MLB, 3 prospects, 3 Top 100 guys, 1 year, 15.45M left
Cliff Lee (31), 2 pitchers, 1 hitter, 0 MLB, 3 prospects, 1 Top 100 guy, 1 year, 9M left
Javy Vazquez (34), 2 pitchers, 1 hitter, 2 MLB, 1 prospect, 1 Top 100 guy, 1 year, 11.5M left
The returns here look like they could be a little lopsided. After all, the trading team is getting a bit more value, having the pitchers for an entire season. Each deal featured a Top 100 guy and all three contracts only had a year remaining. The Blue Jays obviously got the best end of their deal, with three top prospects but none close to the majors. Also, all three pitchers are over 30, which will be a rare occurence at the deadline, as we'll see in a minute.
What are the other eight deals?
2008: CC Sabathia (27), 3 pitchers, 1 hitter, 2 MLB, 2 prospects, 1 Top 100 guy, 1 year, 9M left
2008: Rich Harden (26), 1 pitcher, 3 hitters, 1 MLB, 3 prospects, 1 Top 100 guy, 1 year, 4.5M left (option for 7M)
2008: Joe Blanton (27), 1 pitcher, 2 hitters, 1 MLB, 3 prospects, 1 Top 100 guy, 1 year, 9M left
2009: Jake Peavey (28), 4 pitchers, 0 hitters, 3 MLB, 1 prospect, 1 Top 100 guy, 1 year, 8M left
2009: Cliff Lee (30), 2 pitchers, 2 hitters, 2 MLB, 2 prospects, 4 Top 100 guys, 1 year, 5.75M left (option for 9M)
2009: Scott Kazmir (25), 1 pitcher, 2 hitters, 1 MLB, 2 prospects, 0 Top 100 guys, 3 years, 26M left (option for 13.5M)
2010: Cliff Lee (31), 3 pitchers, 1 hitter, 1 MLB, 3 prospects, 1 Top 100 guy, 1 year, 9M left
2010: Dan Haren (29), 4 pitchers, 0 hitters, 2 MLB, 2 prospects, 0 Top 100 guys, 3 years, 33.75M left (option for 15.5M)
Only three pitchers show up with multiple years left on their contracts and both of those guys are under 30. Both guys also had option years, meaning they were under team control for three seasons after the trade. Only Blanton was eligible for arbitration, giving Philly two years with him under team control at the time of the trade. The contract part does not speak well for a possible Roy trade. Also, Cliff Lee is the only 30+ player on the list. Most of these guys were traded because their teams couldn't keep them financially (Cleveland, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa Bay) while a couple were just rebuilding (Seattle, Arizona).
Every team got at least one Top 100 prospect back except for the Haren and Kazmir deals. Both were struck with the Angels, which could explain it. The Kazmir trade also happened after the July deadline and was two days before the August deadline, so the players who could be moved had to have cleared waivers. Generally, Top 100 guys don't slip through that waiver wire. Los Angeles has also caught heat lately after their farm system has been depleted by constant major league promotions. Still, the possible PTBNL in the Haren deal is Tyler Skaggs, who was a supplemental first round pick in 2009. He's not a Top 100 guy yet, but he definitely has some talent.
I was also surprised that there weren't more pitcher-heavy deals. Every deal on the list had at least one pitcher included. That's probably with the hope that the new guy will one day replace the old one. On the other hand, there were two deals that didn't feature any hitters. It seemed like I remembered more trades like that, but nearly half featured as many or more hitters than pitchers.
Finally, in every one of the in-season trades, there was at least one major leaguer included. Many times, the included player was young and may have had limited MLB experience, but it does give more credence to Wade's demands. There is a precedent, after all.
The average deal here breaks down like this: 1 major league player, 1 Top 100 prospect, 1 other prospect. That's basically what Ed Wade is asking for. If the latest Jayson Stark report is to be credited, Wade is holding out for Jonathan Singleton to be included in any trade. That would give the Astros two Top 100 prospects in the deal plus a major leaguer (J.A. Happ). The haul would be smaller than the average deal, but given the years and money left on Oswalt's contract, two Top 100 guys would be a very nice return for Wade.
The money is a good thread to pull as an ending, too. Wtih the exception of Haren and Kazmir, every other trade was done when the trading team had little control over the player left. Usually, there was just a year left on the contract. Basically, the team was backed into a corner and risked losing the player for draft picks. Instead, they picked up major leaguers and a few good prospects. With Oswalt, the scenario is different. I think that's what's throwing so many national writers and reporters. There hasn't been a trade quite like this in a while. I think ultimately, Wade will get his price, but he won't get two Top 100 guys. Is that good enough for you to make a deal?
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The money
left on Kazmir and Harens contracts, seems to be a reason no top 100 prospects were moved in either trade. Which is what worries me about the Astros request for the other team to pick up the tab.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 8:56 AM CDT reply actions
Top 100 talent level varies from year to year just like a draft. It can be deep or not so deep. There are a lot hight upside talent right now especially after this years draft. There are guys who may not be top 100 at the end of the year because of the newly drafted guys. So what i’m saying is i’ll take a non top 100 guy if he would probably be in the range of 101-150 or even 200.
by Subber10 on Jul 26, 2010 9:38 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Excellent Research
I am a Cardinal fan and I have been wishing for a trade between the Stros and the Cards. Still possible, but it looks doubtful at this point to me. Stros look to be asking for to much and Cards seem to be low-balling.
I have tried to research the Stros needs beyond the classification of major league ready player and top 100 prospect. I know they need startiing and relief pitching, but beyond that what do they need. A successful trade needs to provide a good match based on strengths and needs and I am wondering what that match might be?
Card Strengths: The Cardinal overall system looks real weak if you just look at the rankings. However, the talent on the parent club has somewhat suppressed the ability of some AAA players to move on up. For example, Alan Craig looks like the real deal. He is simply dominating AAA with a good average and 69 RBI/s. His only problem is that he is blocked by Pujols at first base which is his natural position. When he has had a chance to play 1B he looked very good. Jon Jay is another young player who has been blocked at AAA by the signing of Holliday and Rasmus and Ludwick. Jay has a very small sample, but after a few over 100 at bats he has undoubtably been the best of the three outfielders. Many Card fans want to move Rasmus or Ludwick and insert Jay. The Cards also have some depth in the relief corps. Boggs is on the major league team and has performed very well as a reliever after being switched last year from a starting pitcher. He has dominate closer stuff, but is wild from time to time. If he is throwing strikes he is dominating. I think he might be the type of guy that a rebuilding team could allow to grow into a starting position or a closer spot.. He is a guy that I would ask for if I was doing the trading. Salas and Sanchez are also excellent young power throwing relief pitchers who have moved up quickly in the system. Salas has moved back and forth between AAA and the big club and has been very impressive. He is simply blocked by a well stocked pen. Sanchez has moved up quickly to AAA and is being successful there.
The Cards also have some nice depth with their catchers who are all blocked by Molina. Of course, the big prospect that the Cards seem to refuse to move and that the Stros would surely want is Shelby Miller – top 50 prospect that has future front end stuff.
Looking forward what are the Stros needs for rebuilding?
Many Card fans want to move Rasmus or Ludwick and insert Jay.
Erm, which ones?
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 26, 2010 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Astros have plenty of relief pitching in both the minors and majors. I doubt the Astros need a 1B of the future I know there’s talk that Berkman will become a free agent, but I have the feeling he’ll take less money and resign with the home team. As for Jon Jay as it was discussed in this article the Astros already have plenty of minor league outfielders that profile the same as him.
As for actual needs my feelings are they need infielders and starting pitchers.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
i would take anything for him at this point. just to have his 15 million off the books next year would be nice. Happ and 2 top 100’s would be pretty sweet. hopefully Wade can make that work
the problem is Ed Wade get’s to spend the money…
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Lee trade
No team is going to give the Stros an equivalent deal to the Lee trade which seems to be what Wade is seeking which probably means he’ll stay in Houston.
Ya I’m hoping Wade doesn’t pull a Dan Haren.
The Stros can wait until the off season to move Roy if necessary, there should be more interested parties at that point.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Happ, Cosart, and Singleton would be a good deal IMHO. Anything more is great, anything less is bad.
If it doesn’t include a top 100 guy, I’ll be greatly disappointed.
Ideally, before the deadline this year I’d like to see the Astros trade for 2 starting pitchers (1 with ace upside, 1 with back end floor), a power bat, and a top-of-the-order infielder (2B/SS). With up to 6 tradeable pieces to move (Oswalt, Myers, Berkman, Keppinger, Wandy, Lyon), we should be able to complete the overhaul this year and get on with improving.
I think Oswalt can bring in 2 pitchers and a power bat. That leaves trading another guy (Myers, Berkman, Kepp, or Wandy) for an infielder.
I’m going to be angry if we keep Myers past July 31.
I won’t be upset if we keep Myers past July 31st as long as he stays in Houston (on a not-too-expensive deal; either his mutual option, or an extension) and we still deal other players for prospects.
If nobody gets dealt, and we don’t get any prospects back at the deadline, then I’ll be upset.
Basically, I just want to see that there is some kind of plan to improve this team faster than simply drafting and waiting.
Why?
There’s still the off season. The only piece the Stros would be unable to move would be Myers.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Several reasons
Average players like Jeff Keppinger probably don’t have a whole lot of value in the offseason when teams can pursue similar guys in free agency without giving up prospects.
Lance Berkman, like Myers, will probably be gone, or at least will only return on a new cheaper deal (still more than anyone else would pay) to play first base, and won’t be trade bait.
And you do lose a half-season of value on a guy like Wandy.
Largely, I think you can stand to hang onto some of these guys into the offseason if you’ve already fortified the farm system; they might be pieces useful to a contending version of the team down the road, or might bring enough revenue by their presence now (e.g. Berkman) to negate the losses in future wins by not moving them.
But if you do nothing at the trade deadline, you stand to lose a significant chunk of value.
Most importantly, to me, we still will not have seen any evidence that the front office actually has the guts to do what needs doing. If they don’t make any moves at the deadline, what makes you think they’ll be able to pull the trigger in the offseason? We still haven’t seen the team go into sell mode through a number of periods when it would have been a good idea. This would be one more opportunity slipping by.
If the Astros trade guys just to trade them, not getting sufficient value, I will be more upset than if they don’t trade them. I view that as panic selling. I think the Astros are making an effort to trade Oswalt. (It’s hard to tell what they are thinking beyond that.) However, if they can’t get a decent return, the conditions aren’t right for a trade, and you go to restart in the off-season.
If the Astros don’t get enough value, I’m going to assume based on what I’ve heard that it was because they were demanding too much, and not because nobody was offering anything of worth; McLane reportedly wants a good young major league player, two high-end prospects, and another prospect for Oswalt.
Wade reportedly needs to be “overwhelmed” to trade Myers or Wandy.
Yes, these may just be negotiating tactics; starting the bargaining high. But if no trade is made at all, I’m going to have to assume the Astros priced themselves out of the market for their players.
My thoughts on each tradeable piece Houston has:
Berkman- ok to keep; he brings in revenue, his value is low right now, and he will probably be willing to come back next year for less $. And we don’t have a true blue 1B waiting in the wings. I’d prefer to move him, but I will understand if nothign happens here.
Keppinger- although he is under team control, his value will likely never be higher. I’d shop him hard.
Oswalt- Given the circumstances (build-up, his demands, etc.), they almost HAVE to trade him. I’ll be very disappointed if he is not moved this week.
Myers- With the way he has been pitching, he is not picking up his option next year, thus he has zero value to Houston beyond this season. Trade him. It will be a tremendous waste of an excellent FA signing by Wade if he doesn’t get moved.
Wandy- I’d certainly be shopping him, especially since he has turned it on recently, but because he is under team control next year and we will likely need at least 1 veteran to anchor an extremely young staff next year, I won’t be sad if he’s still here.
Lyon- I’m surprised there hasn’t been more chatter surrounding him, but I guess his contract detracts more heavily from his value than I would guess.
It will be devastating if Houston doesn’t make any trades this week.
1 deal will be at least a sign of a plan being in place.
2 or more deals, in my mind, is what it will take to get this ship finally set on a new course.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 26, 2010 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Pretty good overview.
I’d agree with most of that. With Myers, I’m willing to give the front office enough benefit of the doubt that they may know something we don’t about his willingness to pick up his end of the option (or possibly negotiate an alternate extension). I wouldn’t if I were him, and I’ve long said that I expect him to be a free agent… but I guess you never know.
If were Wade, I’d certainly be attempting to sell high on him, though. I agree with you there.
Anyway, your post summarizes my feelings pretty well.
Does Myers have a clause preventing us from offering him arbitration if he doesn’t pick up his part of the option? The most recent Elias rankings have him trailing only Jonathan Sanchez, Zach Duke and Vicente Padilla for type B status.
Right now he is a 56.463 and Sanchez is a 58.673. On July 14th he was at 52.305, so he can obviously make up the ground between him and Sanchez if he keeps pitching like he has.
by seanbergmanrules on Jul 26, 2010 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree on Keppinger.
I don’t think the front office has enough imagination to trade Berkman then re-sign him in the off season, not to mention it’d be a PR nightmare for the casual fan.
Myers I think he resigns, but I’d take the best offer for him considering the Stros would be selling high and at this point he’s neither a type A or B free agent.
Wandy I think at this point would be selling low.
I see your point though, I though last year they could of gotten some good prospects for Hawkins and Tejada. I was a bit irked when nothing happened, but I guess this year I can see Oswalt getting moved in the off season. I imagine Drayton would like to take advantage of Oswalt’s chase of the Astro win title, and move him in the off season. Which could be a reason for the high demands. I see no reason why Keppinger and Myers couldn’t be moved but I don’t think not trading them is going to set this organization any farther back than they already are.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Myers is only 2 points away from becoming a Type B player. His partial season as a reliever last year probably is holding down his Elias ranking. But if he continues to pitch like he has so far this year—particularly pitching deeply in games—I think it’s likely he will become a Type B by the end of the season.
After his last start he gained over four points, so he absolutely can make up the ground.
by seanbergmanrules on Jul 26, 2010 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually, his last two starts. But point still stands.
by seanbergmanrules on Jul 26, 2010 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I imagine as long as we exercise our option, we’re free to offer arbitration if he declines his. I have no legal authority for that though.
by seanbergmanrules on Jul 26, 2010 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I've wondered about Keppinger
going to Philly, they’re looking for someone to fill in while Utley’s out and with the year Kepp has had so far he may be a fit. Of course I haven’t looked at who’s playing 2B for the Phillies at the moment.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 12:35 PM CDT reply actions
I wonder if they are, indeed, shopping Keppinger. We’ve been hearing that Mills wants to try Bourgeois at second base more often, and loves the idea of Bourn batting first and Bourgeois batting second. They’ve been working with Bourgeois on his footwork at second base to get him ready to play there more.
It makes me wonder if something is obliquely in the works to trade Keppinger and they are thinking about installing Bourgeois at 2B for the rest of the year to see what he can do.
I have wondered the same thing about Keppinger. There are some interesting signs…picking up extra middle infielders, and the Bourgeois 2d base work. Mills says he wants to be able to use Bourgeois in double switches and as an emergency in extra inning, but then he also says Bourgeois and Bourn at 1-2 in the batting order would be interesting. So, I have to think that the Astros are thinking that a trade of Keppinger is a possibility.
I’ve wondered with Phillies need for a 2B that he might be moved with Oswalt.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I feel vindicated
John Manuel at Baseball America discussed the Dan Haren trade, and said a few similar things to what I said in my article. If the PTBNL is Tyler Skaggs, he said, it’s enough return for Haren. He praised the high upside of both arms, and seemed high on Patrick Corbin.
I think you have a situations on the internet where most people didn’t know who those two young pitchers were and automatically assumed they were not good prospects. They are.
According to Fangraphs, Halo Heaven had Corbin ranked No. 22 in the Angels farm system. That is something that caught my eye; they do a pretty good job of following their own team’s prospects. I have to agree with Sheehan’s take that even if the Skaggs is the PTBNL, it’s pretty darned weak return for three years control of a No. 1 starter in the prime of his career.
With Corbin specifically, his scouting reports are actually very similar to Tyler Skaggs; in fact, both their statistics and their scouting reports are very, very similar. Skaggs was considered a top ten prospect before the season even started, when he had only thrown 10 pro innings.
If a guy has similar stats, similar projection, and similar scouting report, I’m going to assume he’s a prospect of similar value. Just because he’s a lower profile guy, that doesn’t mean he’s a worse prospect.
In fact, Corbin is actually performing well at a higher level in a tough hitter’s league than Skaggs.
Both of these prospects right now have similar value to what Jordan Lyles had at the end of his 2009 season. In fact, “left-handed Lyles” might be a good comp for either of them.
Skaggs was rated 22 coming into the year
and he’s had an excellent first pro season. I think he’ll be in BA’s top 100 this year, if he continues his excellent K/BB ratio from the first half.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 27, 2010 6:09 AM CDT up reply actions
apparently
yanks offered montero Plus for Soria…KC rejected…I would have done that trade…closers are overated
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 26, 2010 1:02 PM CDT reply actions
interesting thought
what if we traded for werth…we got him…we tried to flip him…if we do great, if not then we let him go to FA and get 2 1st rounders (phils would probably have lower teens pick…)
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 26, 2010 1:22 PM CDT reply actions
I thought about that
I assume you mean trading Oswalt for Werth straight up? Maybe Werth plus a prospect?
You do have to remember that we don’t get the Phillies’ first round pick if he declines arb, but instead the first or second round pick of whoever signs him from free agency, though. If it’s a bottom 15 team, they don’t have to give up their first rounder.
Seems like a big gamble and it also seems like it would be easier to negotiate a three-team deal, but who knows.
…or you can get stuck, like Milwaukee did with Sabbathia if he signs with a team that has signed multiple Type A free agents. I agree that is too big a risk, particularly this late before the trading deadline, where you don’t have a lot of time to wait on someone needing him.
Good point
I don’t think I would do it. Too much risk of winding up with just a supplemental pick and a prospect. It’s an interesting out of the box idea though, EHTR.
Ken Rosenthal has a source who thinks Oswalt won’t be traded:
Oswalt does not want to go to the Phillies in a trade, a source with direct knowledge of his thinking said Monday.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, do not feel confident in their ability to land Oswalt, another source said the previous day.
“I’d be surprised if Oswalt goes (anywhere),” an AL executive said. “It sounds like both he and the Astros are difficult.”
He goes on to suggest that Oswalt may be pulling a Roy Halladay and holding out for the Cardinals, and that he might veto trades to other teams.
As a fan, my immediate thought was “traitorous bastard. You can stay right where you are.” Which might not be the most rational response, but there you go…
Yup.
That’s my reaction as well. You either want to be traded to a contender or you don’t. You can’t take away your employer’s leverage completely like that.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 26, 2010 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
You mean " shouldn't" not "can't"
By contract Roy cannot demand a trade but he controls to whom he can be traded (or precisely. he can keep from being traded at all; and he can reject any trade proposed to him. )
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 26, 2010 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
He's certainly welcome to try
To force a trade to St. Louis. I very much doubt McLane will allow it to happen, which means he gets to remain an Astro until 2012 or until he backs off from his demand.
And we, as fans, are more than welcome to despise and scorn him for wanting to screw the team he’s played for his entire career in order to get traded to our historical rival.
Man, I really hope they play hardball with him and tell him straight-up, “You’re not getting traded to St. Louis. So you have two choices. Remain an Astro until 2012, or accept a trade to another who wants you.”
<<<Phils fan here
Hi guys, quick question – Is Oswalt mental?! Why would he not want to play for the Phils? He wouldn’t have to be the ace, he’d slot behind Halladay and before Hamels. He’d have 45000 chanting his name with every K. Why is there all this yes I am no I’m not stuff coming out every other day? At this point I’d almost rather have Myers back.
yeah
I was referring to the Fox report saying he didn’t want to come, and his subsequent rebuttal.
Much like the previous week’s drama of pick up my option then no the option isnt really a big deal I’m flexible bit we heard.
I guess it’s a matter of who you want to believe a beat reporter from the team or a media outlet that’s success is based on how many viewers they get.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 27, 2010 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions
What if Roy retires?
Then tries to sign with the Cards? I know he would be leaving tons of money on the table but he would get what he wants.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 26, 2010 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
isn't it similar to what Clemens did?
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 26, 2010 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions
He's free to retire
but the Astros will retain their rights to his services. That means if he comes back before 2012, then he can’t sign with another team…the club option thing for 2012 makes things a little murky, but that’s the gist of it.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 26, 2010 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Let’s not believe everything we read on the internet kiddies.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
john heymna
#astros not anxious to trade brett myers apparently, since they expect oswalt to be gone and need someone. they should, tho.
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 26, 2010 2:23 PM CDT reply actions
Is the grass really greener?
There are a lot of comments about trading Roy, Myers, Wandy, and Kepp since they have VALUE. I assume they are desired to be traded for players with VALUE???
Who’s going to pitch the rest of the year if you trade our best 3? We can hardly field 5 starters right now as it is.
Left field is set due to Lee’s contract. He needs to perform.
Center field is set with an All Star and Golden Glove.
Right field is set with an All Star and solid performer.
1B is set due to emotional reasons.
Everyone wanted to see CJ called up…here he is so 3B is set.
Everyone wanted to see Castro called up…here he is so C is set.
Kepp and the flavor of the day are handling SS and 2B.
So we’ve got 3 good pitchers, an outfield, the corners, the middle infield, and a catcher.
Looks like we’ve got a baseball team that just isn’t performing, they’re not bad players. And anyone would love to have our starting 3. So what does everyone want to trade our proven top of the roatation for? 2-3 unproven players?
We’re sucking badly and will get another some more good draft picks to help the farm.
Other than the professional ball players not performing (yes Lance and Carlos, I’m talking about you) the Astros have the players you’d want to trade for.
Something has to get them to play like they’re able to. I personally don’t want to see good players traded simply because they have value now. I’d like to see the players with value perform.
How’s that for some anti-groupthink.
Interesting argument
I can see your points, but at the same time, there are a lot of huge question marks involved. Counterpoints, for the sake of argument:
1. Do we actually believe Carlos Lee can get back to being a good performer? (I know clack does, I’m still not sure I agree with that.)
2. Which is the real Bourn? The 2009 version, or the 2008 one, which is remarkably similar to the one we’ve been seeing since June?
3. Can Hunter Pence actually perform like an All-Star, or is he just going to be a slightly above average everyday starter moving forward?
4. Is 1B set at all? Berkman is having the worst season of his career. I certainly wouldn’t pick up his option for next season if he keeps performing like this.
5. Are CJ and Sanchez for real? They still have an awful lot to prove before I buy that they can be average everyday starters, let alone above average contributors.
6. Can we keep Myers next season?
Like I said, interesting thoughts. I could see a best-case outcome where we could contend with the current team next season. I just don’t think it’s likely, and in the long term, we desperately need young, cost-controlled impact players… which we probably don’t have in any of the young guys, except maybe Paulino, depending on how well he develops.
What he said. If the Astros stand pat at the deadline, play a little better in the second half and finish with a record in the middle of the league, they risk not having a replacement ready at first base next season, losing Myers AND Oswalt in the offseason for less than they could get now.
If that happens, next season could be epically bad. As bad as 2010 has been, I’d rather not end up like the Orioles or the Pirates. Knowing how to rebuild and when it’s appropriate is essential to that.
by David Coleman on Jul 26, 2010 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Incidentally, that’s why I think trades like the Cardinals one is bad all-around. Sure, you free up money, but you get a pitching prospect that’s as likely to flame out as he is to succeed Roy and two position players who don’t fit needs on this club or really provide cornerstones for the future. I don’t want to trade Roy for the sake of trading him, the return has to make sense.
by David Coleman on Jul 26, 2010 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly.
I would consider trading with the Cards if it meant back getting both Shelby Miller and Allen Craig (who could play a position we actually need, first base, even though he’s unlikely to be more than an average player), plus some other low-level prospects with upside.
But it sounds like the Cards don’t even want to give up that much. So I’m having a hard time seeing a fit with St. Louis.
To clarify, I used the word “set” to note positions that won’t be changed, ie, Carlos Lee as bad as he is playing, won’t be moved because of his contract and won’t sit on the bench because of it either. Same with Berkman.
You missed the biggest question…who will pitch the rest of the year if Roy and/or Myers/Wandy gets traded, assuming they’re traded for not MLB ready pitchers.
The team will be bad, there’s no question. You’re looking at guys like Josh Banks or Jeremy Johnson or Nelson Figueroa filling into the rotation. But, would you rather the team be bad now or bad for three or four straight years? Deciding when you need to sell on older players is the most important thing a franchise can do.
by David Coleman on Jul 26, 2010 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep, this.
And also, J.A. Happ is rumored to be in any trade with the Phillies, who are the current frontrunners for Roy. He would take Oswalt’s spot in the rotation.
The recommended path would be to shop all 3 of Wandy, Roy, and Myers. It’s likely you could only get good value for 1 or 2 of them, so whoever is left anchors your rotation for the remainder of this season. My vote for which one to keep would be Wandy, since he has the least trade value and the most cost control.
Post Trade Deadline Rotation:
1. Wandy
2. Happ (or prospect received for Oswalt)
3. Paulino
4. Norris
5. Fill-in (Moehler, Wright, Abad, Trinidad, Chacin, Sergio Perez, etc.)
by Snake Diggity on Jul 26, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Last word on Myers
I’ve got to believe Wade has tested the waters and doesn’t like the possible return for Myers.
I think all of this could change if/when Oswalt and Lilly (the other second tier starter available) disappear off the market.
I think someone l could make a run for Myers late on.
For whatever reason this team is horrible. Independently, most of the players have had horrible seasons. There is nothing much to be excited about and that will not inspire the players now or in the near future either. The team needs to be dismantled. These players may be better later but not here.
The team must trade for younger players to speed up the rebuild.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
Do you think Ed Wade also would want major league established player or players in the deal
so just in case the prospects never pan out, it doesn’t further his bust factor in trades through his tenure as a with Philly and Astro GM? He’s been hit pretty bad by the media for questionable deals in the past. I like him though. Could most definitely be worse.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 26, 2010 3:22 PM CDT reply actions
I think GMs in general may feel pressure to show some immediate return on a trade. It’s not easy to tell your bosses, much less the fans, that it’ll be two or three years before they see a return on a deal. So, you pick up someone like J.A. Happ and can say, “See? This is the first of many pieces we got for our guy.” If he sucks, then you can say, “Oh, well the rest of the deal was great. Just wait.”
by David Coleman on Jul 26, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
That’s apparently what they want from the Dodgers, and the Dodgers won’t do it. It’s a crying shame because I love the Dodgers’ prospects. I bet the Astros could get two guys who could be in the majors next year if they would back off the demand for James Loney (something like Dee Gordon and Jerry Sands, for example).
This be Drayton
I think everyone has noticed your Dee Gordon obsession.
I was wondering about this major league ready stuff with some trepidation. We’re waiting on quite a few guys before we can compete again. 2013/4 would be my estimate. But DRAYTON wants bums on seats.
I may sound like a broken record, because I’ve said this lots of times, McLane is super-scared of undoing everything he’s done in the last decade to get people into the juicebox. He has nightmares about Marlins-sized crowds.
What he doesn't seem to realize
is that standing pat is going to get him Marlins-sized crowds, too.
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
I wouldn't even mind, necessarily, not getting Gordon
I really like him obviously, but I think the deal could be done with other prospects instead, too.
I can completely understand the desire for some major league ready players in return. I wouldn’t mind if they were in AAA, rather than currently on the ML roster. But the management has an obligation to field a team of competent major leaguers. That’s their primary product that they have to sell, even if they are a year or two away from competitive. The Astros have so little competent depth in the high minors that the Astros have to get some major league quality players.
I would think if you could get a prospect or two who can compete for a job in spring training next season, that would be good enough. It’s not like this team is going anywhere this year.
I think they need a minor league pitching prospect who can be put in the rotation now. I doubt that Figueroa can be counted on for more than a few spot starts; that’s basically all that he has done recently. The Astros have serious depth problems for the rotation right now. They can’t just put trash in the rotation which falls apart in 3 innings. If the Astros look like they are tanking it, Bud Selig probably calls Drayton on the carpet.
Surely there are other possibilities besides demanding one in an Oswalt trade though. Send cash considerations to another team for a player at AAA, pick up one off waivers, something like that. Alternatively I still feel that Arguello is capable of pitching in the back of the ML rotation; we saw with Abad that they are not unwilling to call up a player directly from AA.
To expand on that, there are definitely teams running with worse starting rotations than Wandy, Myers, Paulino (in a couple weeks), Norris, Moehler, Wright, etc.
I mean, look at the Pirates.
The current year’s rotation should not be much of a consideration when looking at return value of potential deadline deals. It’s disheartening for me to hear that Houston is demanding at least one MLB player in these discussions. It should be all about value, regardless of where the player is now. If we can get a future HOF’er, except he is currently in A ball, that is MUCH more valuable than a James Loney or J.A. Happ or (gulp) Brendan Ryan is now.
When talking specifically about the rotation, I agree that things would be pretty ugly if the top 3 were traded given the current injury situation, but it could end up being a blessing in disguise, if it presses Houston to call up fringe prospects and give them a shot. If running through Trinidad, Perez, Banks, Arguello, Villar, etc yields one long term back end starter who otherwise would not have been given a legit chance, it will be worth it to field a bottom 5 rotation the remainder of this season.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 26, 2010 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
If the Astros traded their top 3 and then fielded a junk rotation the rest of the year to find a long term back end starter, what do you have left for next year?
You’d have a junk rotation with a great number 5. It makes no sense to do that. We may not see a top of the rotation as good as the Astros have now for 8-10 years if the prospects don’t pan out. Bad Norris isn’t the answer right now, Felipe “The Shoulder” Paulino isn’t the answer right now either, and the list goes on.
Get some bodies in the lineup that can swing the damn bat and the Astros would be very, very competetive for 2-3 years… just long enough for Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt retire. By then, some arms from the farm should be ready.
I say keep the pitchers and find a way to put some bats in the lineup. I’d rather see the Astros eat the contract with Lee in order to replace him and even replace Berkman.
I think we all remember how effective a single, hot Beltran bat was. Just one hot bat could be contagious and give the team some life.
to give up on Norris and Paulino? They could be decent mid-rotation guys if they got their heads screwed on properly (and stay off the DL).
Paulino in particular has dazzling stuff at times.
Not giving up on Norris or Paulino, just making the point that they’re not top of the order guys right now. Trading the top 3 leaves the Astros in a bind for a long time.
’trading the top 3 leaves the Astros in a bind for a long time
basically till Lyles and Folty get here.
We’re going to stink in 2011whatever we acquire. It is after that which matters, which is why I wouldn’t be too hung up if we acquire guys who aren’t near to getting to the majors.
Wandy won’t be going anywhere. Wade should keep him and see if his value has gone up by the offseason (Rodriguez is a FA end of 2011?)
After having seen Lyles here in Corpus a couple of times, he has all the tools. He just needs a little more seasoning in the system. Maybe a split season between Corpus and RR depending on his and both teams’ performances. He is not far away from being in Houston.
At his age, Lyle would have to be on very strict work load limits next year if he is called up to the majors. Personally, I think calling him up for a game or two in September is about as much risk as the Astros should take next year in handling Lyle. He will be 20 years old.
I don’t really care when Lyles gets his big league innings next season, as long as he gets some but not too many.
I wonder if there’s any chance of Dallas Keuchel competing for a rotation spot in spring training? Maybe I should see how he performs for the rest of the season at AA first before I talk about him skipping another level, though.
You say top 3
I doubt Wandy is traded. It would be stupid not to trade Myers unless he accepts his option next year, which he will not.
Saying the Astros need, “some guys that can swing the bat” is such an understatement. They have no hitters at this point I would call above avg at their position. ZERO, ZERO, ZERO. I think you are overvaluing the teams’ talent level and production level. They are all better at playing baseball than me but not as good as most professional baseball players.
The entire lineup needs to improve for the Astros to win games. It is a very very poor offensive team. There is also no reason to believe they would be better next year. Most of the players in the upper minors project a replacement level players.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
Would it be realistic to maybe throw Berkman into a Oswalt deal to the Dodgers to net a couple more prospects?
I wonder if that would be too much money contract wise for the Dodgers to take in?
If the Astros keep Berkman and decline his option next season, do the Astros get an extra high draft pick for that?
They’d have to offer him arbitration, which I doubt they do. He’d just as soon stay in Houston as go elsewhere.
Since part of the Dodgers deal had the Astros picking up the rest of Oswalt’s contract, I’d say its unlikely Berkman gets included as well.
by David Coleman on Jul 26, 2010 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
which could make him very attractive in the FA market.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions
I have thought about that possibility. It’s probably the only only way that the Astros can get Loney in return. (I’m not even sure I would be that excited about Loney, myself.) The Astros might have to kick in more money on Oswalt’s salary. But Berkman isn’t that expensive…$6 – 7 million remaining plus $2 million buy out. Maybe it would be fair for the Astros to pick up the buy out on Berkman’s option. It does seem unlikely.
And Berkman has expressed reservations about accepting a trade to the West Coast.
Asked Alyson Footer about the Roy vetoing Philly report
She said the report is incorrect. So we can lay that one to bed for now.
Chronicle is reporting it as well
Astros ace Roy Oswalt has no problem being traded to an East Coast team — it just has to be the right one.
If a team tells Roy that they’ll pick up his option, that doesn’t mean they have to does it? Or does the trade clause have something to do with that?
It would be awesome if we could ship Oswalt to STL for Rasmus + prospects. Then make room by shipping Pence and maybe Lindstrom to the Rays for some of their top prospects. Now, I know a lot of Houston fans would hate to trade Pence. But, Pence is already 27 and will be on the downside of his prime once Lyles, Meir, Martinez, DD jr, are in the big leagues contributing.
I don’t think St. Louis would ever trade Rasmus to us, even for Oswalt. I wouldn’t mind trading Pence though, for the right offer.
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