Dan Haren off the market - Astros' Roy Oswalt next?
by OremLK on Jul 25, 2010 6:10 PM CDT
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PrintIn just the second blockbuster trade of the season, the Angels have acquired ace starter Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Joe Saunders, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez, and a player to be named later, per Andrew Baggerly of the Mercury News. The PTBNL is a top prospect, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, via Twitter. The prospect in question is not, however, Mike Trout, says Jeff Passan. However, Arizona seems thrilled with the PTBNL, according to Ken Rosenthal.
Enough with the news part of this. What does it mean for the Astros? It's hard to say until we know who the PTBNL is, but on the surface, this looks like a solid return, if Haren has similar value to Oswalt (or just slightly more).
Joe Saunders has obviously already been a serviceable back of the rotation inningseater for the Angels; he should be solid no. 4-type starter for the Diamondbacks, and he's under team control for a couple more seasons on a reasonable contract. If you want to draw an analogy to the rumored Astros trade with the Phillies, he would be similar to J.A. Happ. Much more reliable, but less team control and upside.
Patrick Corbin is a projectable young lefty in A-Advanced who has a fantastic minor league K/BB ratio and has been performing very well in his first full season. Think of him as being similar to Tanner Bushue, but perhaps better. A grade B type prospect with the upside to potentially become a B+ or A- in the future. He throws in the high 80s/low 90s range with some sink, and while his breaking ball and changeup are raw, they should develop into plus pitches in the future. Most importantly, he's athletic and has a lot of projection in his frame. Make no mistake, this is a very good pitching prospect; he could be a no. 2 down the road.
Rafael Rodriguez is not an important part of this deal; he's a young MLB-ready relief pitcher with average stuff, who profiles as a possible middle relief contributor. A low-end grade C throw-in, in other words.
The deal hinges on the PBTNL. Until we know who that is, it's hard to say what this bodes for the Astros in terms of the quality of return. If it is one of the Angels' top five prospects (besides Mike Trout), then it would be a fine return. If it's more of a grade B-/C+ guy, then it's about what you would expect.
If I were a Diamondbacks fan, I would be fairly satisfied with this trade.
One thing this does is that it gets the only other ace pitcher off the market; that means any teams who were trying to get Haren may now be interested in Oswalt. It could result in a bidding war, which would be the ideal circumstance for the Astros.
What do you think of the return the Diamondbacks got? Would you be happy with it if it were Oswalt traded to the Angels instead?
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Ben Badler of Baseball America is speculating that the PTBNL could be Tyler Skaggs, because he didn’t sign until August.
He is similar in value and upside to Shelby Miller or the Cardinals or Jarred Cosart of the Phillies. A very good, high ceiling pitching prospect who is excelling in low A ball at a young age.
Tyler Skaggs was one of my favorite pitchers from the 2009 draft that I thought the Astros might have a shot at. But I’m a sucker for lefties with good curveballs. A lot of people don’t like this deal for the D-Backs, even with Skaggs as the PTBNL.
I would have been somewhat satisfied with a similar deal for Roy, thought I would have been disappointed that we couldn’t get an everyday player for the infield somewhere in the deal.
I’d like that type of return a lot. As long as the PTBNL is a top 5 prospect then I would definitely take that return for Oswalt. I’ve been a J.A. Happ fan for a couple years so I want to see us do a deal with the Phillies or even better a Phillies/TB trade. I also wouldn’t mind seeing the Yankees get involved. I just can’t wait till it’s over with because this is consuming my life haha.
I think the Astros need to receive a better haul than this (depending on the PTBNL of course). The best thing that could happen is for the Yankees to enter the Oswalt sweepstakes. If Ed Wade could end up turning this into a bidding war with the Yanks, Phils, Cards and others involved, then the Astros should be able to obtain better players than those sent to Arizona. If Wade can not obtain at least one sure fire, grade A prospect in a deal, then I’d be inclined to hold Oswalt and trade him in the offseason.
by IndianaAstrofan on Jul 25, 2010 6:35 PM CDT reply actions
Cardinals would be eliminated rather quickly in a bidding war
by Timothy De Block on Jul 25, 2010 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I think
In the end of your write-up, you summed it up best: it creates a bidding war. I still think Roy O was probably the #1 guy for most, but maybe some new teams might feel the need to swoop in now. I imagine this can’t hurt, especially if the PTBNL is a Top 5 Angels prospect. If it is a Top 5 prospect then the Astros should get a good haul. I’d love to see Drayton pay some of the contract to pick up better talent.
I’m still hoping that Oswalt is only 1 player that the Astros are trying to move. This team stinks.
by Crazy Eye Killa on Jul 25, 2010 6:36 PM CDT reply actions
Agreed. I’d like to see Wade on the phone with the Angels, Tigers, White Sox, etc trying to get something for Berkman before his option is eventually declined. I’d also be looking to move Myers, Wandy and would listen to offers for Pence as well.
by IndianaAstrofan on Jul 25, 2010 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep. Sucks that Wandy’s value isn’t as high as last season, but he’s starting to rebound; although if Wandy wasn’t traded it wouldn’t be my biggest gripe. And though I like the way Myers is pitching and handling himself, I can’t imagine he’ll ever have better value than now. Plus, who’s to say he’ll even sign with the Astros – or at what cost?
Too bad Berkman is stinking it up too. Still, if they can trade him and get something in return, that’s better than him walking away, unless they receive picks?
Nonetheless, it should be a fire sale.
by Crazy Eye Killa on Jul 25, 2010 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Since Berkman would only be leaving after his option is declined instead of as a FA, the Astros can not offer him arbitration, so no picks will be obtained.
I agree on the fire sale. Trade any and everyone to get really, really young. Then in the off season, offer to pay 60%+ of Lee’s remaining contract to get rid of him since his no-trade protection expires after this season.
by IndianaAstrofan on Jul 25, 2010 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Makes sense. I didn’t think the ‘stros would get anything if they buy his contract out next, so might as well get anything they can for him now. Besides, Lance could be back next season with the Astros and they could sign him for a reduced fee, without having to pay the $2 million buyout. Sadly, I don’t see the Astros making a fire sale.
by Crazy Eye Killa on Jul 25, 2010 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions
It’s been sad seeing how much Lance has declined. He’s barely passing as an average first baseman these days.
he’s still got one more bounce back year in him.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 25, 2010 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Looks like a steal for the Angels
They have him under contract until 2012 at $12.75 mil/season with a club option for 2013. Joe Saunders may be a decent starter, but that’s about it. Can’t really say too much about the rest of the D’Backs’ haul till I see them play.
With Roy, you have him for basically a season and a half at $24-25 mil with a $16 mil option for 2012. One less year of team control, so until we see who the PTBNL is, it’s hard to see the Astros getting a better package for Roy.
Sounds like Skaggs may have been correct
Jack Magruder of FOX Sports says he has sources which are indicating that.
Good deal for Arizona. Although for Roy, I hope Wade gets at least one good position player prospect back and not just pitching. But it makes sense that Arizona would be focused on pitching.
One more thought.
If you want to compare to a possible Phillies deal for Happ and prospects; this would be fairly comparable to the proposed Happ, Singleton, and Cosart return we talked about a few days ago. Happ/Singleton/Cosart would be a little better of a deal for the Astros than Arizona got, but the scales would be balanced if the Astros kicked $5-10M into the deal.
With Cosart being shut down for the rest of the year with arm problems, I think Happ/Singleton/Colvin is more likely.
There’s seems to be some difference in opinions on twitter on how well Arizona made out.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 25, 2010 7:01 PM CDT reply actions
Jon Heyman thinks it’s a good deal and he’s really bad at analysis. Buster Olney I’m kind of indifferent at this point since I don’t go to espn for sports coverage, although he’s been lambasted here before.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 25, 2010 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions
It's going to be controversial
Because both of the young pitchers are projectable lefties with fastballs that sit around 89, maybe 90mph currently. Some prospect guys will tell you that means they can only be middle rotation starters. For me, I see definite no. 2 upside, when you look at their results and secondary stuff and projectability.
It’s going to boil down to the same argument prospect guys have been having over Madison Bumgarner, Jordan Lyles, etc.
what I think about this trade...
I think its a win win for both…AZ gave up a big contract and got back some nice pieces…
My problem with the AZ side is how much they gave up…they gave up Brett Andersen who looks like a very good number 2 pitcher…Cargo who is playing very very well for the Rockies. Aaron Cunningham, G. Smith, Dana Eveland, C. Carter…they gave up 2 very good players so they need these prospects to pan out
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 25, 2010 7:05 PM CDT reply actions
Saunders is set to probably see around $6 million next year in arb
That’s not a big salary dump.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 25, 2010 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Think he'll get that much?
Have a hard time seeing him making that much money when Wandy only got $5M, after seeking the same amount in arb.
Yeah
Just because his salary this year is already $3.7. My guess is somewhere around $5.5 million.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 25, 2010 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Good point
I don’t know how they weigh current salary versus performance. Is there a rule of thumb, or is it just up to MLB?
I don't the specifics
But he got to $3.7 million on essentially the same performance in 2009 and I assume that present salary gets a heavy weight.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 25, 2010 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions
We need a poll
for where Roy goes.
Don’t forget to include other considering that’s been the trend this year.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 25, 2010 7:09 PM CDT reply actions
you know
during the season I wasn’t on the whole “sell sell sell” wagon…as the deadline approaches, I am very OK with seeing Myers/Wandy/Oswalt traded along with Keppinger…I also would REALLY like to see a Kazmir for Lee trade
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 25, 2010 7:09 PM CDT reply actions
The off season will be the only time we would see a trade involving Lee. He has said many times that he will not waive his no trade clause. His no trade clause expires after this season…but after NEXT season, his 10/5 rights kick in.
by IndianaAstrofan on Jul 25, 2010 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions
tru...
forgot about that…but I am totally on that bandwagon…i think Kazmir would love to play here, and would be a solid pitcher…he has shown he can!
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 25, 2010 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Kazmir for Lee
An interesting proposition.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 25, 2010 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Guess I'm a lot higher on Corbin/Skaggs than a lot of people
Consensus seems to be that Arizona lost this deal. I still don’t agree; I think you’ve got a good combination of performance and upside with both pitchers, and I consider them comparable to a lot of the top arms in the minors, although lower profile prior to this trade (now they’ll be under a microscope).
Time will tell.
Only reason I would say they lost
is because of what they gave for Haren
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 25, 2010 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions
yay!
MLBTR updates…seems like cards-stros deal would be to tough now, bcz stros might ask to much…cards and dodgers that is…phils should still be in
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 25, 2010 8:20 PM CDT reply actions
Comments at Baseball Think Factory...
Almost all of the comments at BBTF are negative to Arizona’s side of the trade. The general reaction seems to be that D-Backs were hosed in this trade, or alternatively that Arizona was just interested in a salary dump. I hope the commenter who says, “this means Oswalt will bring half a bag of turds” is wrong.
Yes, that seems to be the common opinion
However, there seems to be quite a bit of groupthink/appeal to authority going on regarding the prospects involved in this deal, based on their pre-season prospect rankings, which aren’t really valid ways to assess a trade at this point in the year.
Besides the valuation of the prospects, the BBTF comments take issue with the apparent valuation of Haren and Saunders in the trade. As someone there said, it is almost as if the two teams are undervaluing Haren and overvaluing Saunders by using ERA, instead of x-FIP or peripherals. Haren’s x-FIP indicates he can still be an ace, while Saunders x-FIP indicates that he is pretty bad.
Fangraphs has a couple of articles criticizing the D-Backs in the trade. Carruth’s quote:
That is not a good haul; it’s not even a decent haul. It’s downright bad. It’s the sort of return you’d more expect if the person getting traded was a liability due to his contract, not an asset.
This article is a little more neutral.
twitter damn slow
im following 88 ppl and alot of reporters…and i havent had a tweet in last 33 minutes
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 25, 2010 10:24 PM CDT reply actions
Singleton the hold-up?
Saw this posted on a phillies board:
Jayson Stark was just on Sports Final on NBC: Things have changed. Right now he would say unless something shifts, he doesn’t see the Phillies getting Oswalt.
Difficult deal for the Astros to make. JA Happ would be part of the deal. Astros looking for 4 players back. Major league player and 2 best prospects. Main hangup is Jonathan Singleton. The Phillies are saying they are not trading him. That’s why you are hearing Werth’s name floated out there. Oswalt has relented on forcing the 2012 option to be picked up. He wants to be traded. The hangup is the players. The Astros want a lot back.
That's a shame
Singleton is the prospect I most want from them (except Dom Brown, of course, who we’re not getting no matter what). I’m hoping they cave as we get closer to the deadline.
Seems strange on Phillies part
Unless Singleton has the ability to play a position other than 1B. Didn’t they just sign Howard to a pretty long extension?
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
he’s got a limited no trade clause so he may be able to be moved, but good point. I guess they didn’t learn from the Jim Thome deal.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 26, 2010 7:16 AM CDT up reply actions
Ted Lilly
is still on the market. The Cards/Phills/Dodgers could change their focus to him at any time.
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