Roy Rumors: Astros In Talks With Phillies - Who Do You Want?
According to a variety of sources, the Astros are involved in serious trade talks with the Phillies, who are aggressively looking to improve before the deadline. With many of their best players reaching the end of their prime years, Philadelphia's window to win it all (again) may soon close, so they can't afford to miss any chance to make the postseason over the next few years.
That, plus Ed Wade's inclination to trade with his old team, makes them likely suitors for Roy Oswalt. According to some reports, the two teams are serious enough that the Astros may be close to presenting a scenario to Oswalt for his consideration.
We also hear that the Phillies are looking to trade Jayson Werth, and they may seek to move him to the Rays. This opens up the possibility of a three-team trade, which would likely appeal to the Astros since the Rays have a much better farm system than Philadelphia's.
With all of this in mind, what players (from both teams) could the Astros be considering?
UPDATE: In advance of today's game against the Cubs, Bernardo Fallas has an update on Roy Oswalt. When asked about the Philadelphia rumors, Oswalt said the team hasn't approached him with anything but that he'd be accepting of a deal to Philly. This could happen fast.
Phillies
You can forget about Domonic Brown right now. He's not available, especially if the Phillies are shopping Jayson Werth--they'll need him to fill the hole in their outfield. With that in mind, no other minor league players should be considered off-limits. Unfortunately, most of their best prospects are in the lower minors, but if that's the only way for the Astros to get back potential impact players, it should at least be considered.
- J.A. Happ, LHP. Happ is a trap. It's actually fortunate, in a way, that he's suffered from injuries this year, because it reduces his value to a more reasonable level, where he wouldn't likely be the centerpiece of a deal. His ERA has been much better than his peripherals suggest it should be since his debut in 2008. All of that said, if he can stay healthy, he's still a solid pitcher; he projects as somewhere around a no. 3 or no. 4 starter, which is useful, but not the young phenom you might expect glancing at his earned run average. Hopefully if he was included in a deal it would be as just one part of a larger package.
- Jarred Cosart, RHP. Cosart is a right-handed starting pitcher with great stuff, although he is far from the majors. He's a native Texan from the Houston area, which is a nice bonus, but more importantly, he has no. 1 starter upside and great stats in the minors. Were the Astros to trade for him, he would seem likely to follow the path of Jordan Lyles and skip straight from low A to AA next season.
- Jonathan Singleton, 1B. Profiling as a potential impact bat, Singleton is tearing up the low-A Sally league at the ripe age of 18, and he's already in Baseball America's top 50 midseason prospects list. Like Cosart, he's a great prospect, but he's a long way from being MLB-ready. With Ryan Howard under contract through 2016, the Phillies may be more amenable to trading Singleton than Cosart.
- Brody Colvin, RHP. Much like Cosart, Colvin is a starting pitcher with great stuff who is in low A and far from MLB-ready. He's not quite as good of a prospect, but he could still draw interest.
Rays
The Rays have a very deep minor league system. You can forget about their top prospect, Desmond Jennings, and Jeremy Hellickson, right behind him, may or may not be available in trade. I can't hope to cover all of their interesting prospects and players, but here are a few who could be attractive to the Astros.
- Jeremy Hellickson, RHP. If this turns into a three-team trade with the Rays, Hellickson should be the Astros' number one target. He projects as a no. 2 starter at the big league level, but it pays not to underestimate pitchers with his track record and pitchability. He could turn into the next Roy Oswalt; the perfect piece to get back when trading away Oswalt himself.
- Reid Brignac, SS. With Jason Bartlett under contract and shaping up to expected form in July, the Rays may be willing to trade young shortstop Reid Brignac. He'll never be a star player, but he's a fairly safe bet to be a solid everyday starter, better than any of the Astros' current options. He is an average defensive shortstop with a roughly ML average bat (which plays as above average at shortstop, a premium defensive position).
- Wade Davis, RHP. Davis has not been good this year, but he was a top prospect coming into the season, and he has frontline starter upside. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up, but his track record suggests both should improve.
- Matt Moore, LHP. While farther from the majors than any of these other players (Moore is in class-A advanced), his strikeout rate is jawdropping and his ceiling is that of a true ace.
- Alexander Colome, RHP. Another pitcher a little ways off from the majors, Colome, like Moore, has excellent stuff and could be a frontline starter down the road.
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If the Astros are paying part of Roy's salary
surely the Phils have to include one of Cosart or Singleton. Maybe Phillipe Aumont? Don’t want a part of Happ.
Would the Rays take on all that much payroll? Either way I don’t see them giving up Hellickson unless the Astros do something crazy like go one-for-one and pay nearly all of Roy’s remaining salary, but I wouldn’t mind a package where Brignac is a centrepiece and is surrounded by a high-floor lower-ceiling closer-to-the-majors guy or some intriguing arms (Colome would be great as one of them, but…). Getting Matt Moore would be a total steal, IMO, even with his walks.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
The Rays aren't involved directly
They are looking to get Jayson Werth, not Roy Oswalt. The idea is that the Phillies might trade Werth over to them to enable taking on Oswalt’s salary.
Turning it into a three-team trade is speculation on my part, but it seems like a logical thing to consider if both trades are going to happen at the same time. A trade could be something like Oswalt to the Phillies, Werth to the Rays, and Hellickson to the Astros, with some prospects sprinkled in by different parties to even the deal out.
Everything I was reading last night
Indicated that the Phillies, if they can move Werth’s contract, are willing to take on all of Roy’s contract- probably to reduce the prospects they have to give up.
The Rays scenario…oh my that would be nice.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 21, 2010 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Not a 3 team trade
Someone on Mike and Mike this morning was reporting that it most likely was two separate deals, in which case we would just be looking at Phillies prospects
JA Happ turns 28 this year. Doesn’t that sort of defeat the whole purpose of going younger?
I have a bad feeling that I’m going to be underwelmed when the Astros get a package centered around Jiwan James or Chris Murrill……
Aging doesn’t work the same for pitchers as hitters. More important is that Happ has a lot of team control left and would be here, cheaply, for quite awhile.
That said I wouldn’t be thrilled by the idea of getting Happ, either. I tend to think he’s going to be a fourth starter over the rest of his career, and that’s if he remains healthy. He does have some value though, so I wouldn’t be opposed to getting him back in a bigger package, depending on what else was included.
You’d get 4 years of team control over Happ, 2 of which he’d be pitching for a team that has little chance of competing. (Let’s be realist here, the Astros are likely going to suck next year and probably in 2012 as well.). I would rather have a guy who could spend next year or even two in the minors and then the team still have 5 years of control.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 21, 2010 8:35 AM CDT up reply actions
4.5 years, actually, including the rest of this season. I don’t necessarily disagree with your points I’m just saying I wouldn’t mind getting him back in the deal as long as we still got some good prospects as well.
What scares me about Happ is that he was drafted and developed during Wade’s tenure in Philadelphia, which leads me to fear that he will be overvalued by the Astros.
not a fan of Happ
his peripherals don’t match up with his success…
K per 9 under 7, BB per 9 over 3, BABIP in the .270’s, strand rate over 85%, FIP as 4.33…
Nice arm but more of a #3/#4 guy than anything else
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
agreed
How many ex-Phillies have the Astros aquired since Ed Wade’s tenure started? Myers, Feliz, Bourn, Wolf, Geary, Coste, Kata, Newhan, Tomas Perez,….. I feel like I’m leaving someone out.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 21, 2010 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions
I would like to add Nelson Figueroa to the list….
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 21, 2010 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
good call. I knew I was leaving someone out…
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 21, 2010 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
If all they wanted was Brown and maybe a Grade C guy like former Rice lefty Joe Savery or shortstop Jonathan Villar, I think the Phillies would take that deal. Yes, Brown “appears” untouchable, but so did Kyle Drabek before the Halladay deal. Don’t discount the Phils filling Werth’s spot with another prospect in a trade. If the rumors of Boston having interest are true, they could easily pick up Ryan Kalish to put in the outfield.
I’d almost be willing to move Oswalt for just Brown, because he’s that elusive young power bat that the Astros don’t have in the system.
I'd definitely do it
I just don’t think the Phillies will. I thought the Jays tried to get Brown and he was untouchable?
Hopefully if we got Brown the Astros would turn around and trade Hunter Pence either now or in the off-season.
Brown is the #1 prospect in the minors right now
Roy is not worth the top prospect in all of baseball.. He isn’t worth a guy in the top 10 and is debatable in regards to a top 25 guy
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
The no. 1 prospect in baseball doesn’t mean as much now as it did at the beginning of the season… so many promotions. Was Dom Brown even in the top ten in pre-season rankings?
Still, I tend to agree. I would be very surprised if Brown was available.
Brown was a Top 15 guy in the preseason rankings.
by David Coleman on Jul 21, 2010 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Is he? I’m sure the Phillies value him that highly, just as the Astros value Jordan Lyles similarly. But, with any trade, you have to give up value. If all they give up is really Brown, I think the Phils make this trade. Remember, too, that the Phils would have Oswalt under contract for another year, so it’s not just a half-year rental. He’s got some value and a 2-for-1 swap doesn’t seem too far-fetched.
by David Coleman on Jul 21, 2010 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Just to clarify, I don’t think Brown will be moved. He’s too good a prospect. But, if the Astros are making a trade with Philadelphia, the conversation has to begin and end with him. The Cliff Lee trade set a precedent for Top 10 hitters getting moved in a deal. Roy is as good with a longer contract, which makes him slightly more valuable than Lee, if a team can absorb the dollars he’s owed.
by David Coleman on Jul 21, 2010 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions
He is the top prospect in all of the midseason lists
Oswalt at his age and contract with his injury history is not worth it. I I would expect a deal centered around Happ and a few secondary prospects. A lot will depend on what happens on the Werth front. I would not be surprised to see the Phils move Happ knowing that the arm coming from the Werth deal will be as or more valuable than Happ is right now.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
What injury history?
The dude has made 30+ starts since 2004, his contract is right around market value, Cliff Lee is looking for Sabathia money this off season. He’s also a proven commodity which no prospect within baseball is at this point.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 21, 2010 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Cliff Lee btw
Is only a year younger than Oswalt by the way, and has a career ERA+ 112 compared to Oswalts ERA+ of 135. Granted Lee’s peak has been higher, but Roy’s been more consistent.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 21, 2010 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions
He may have not had a lot of DL stints, but he has had more than his share of missed starts due to injury.
You want to know why teams are leery of Roy at his age? 14 different injuries in the last 3 years missing a total of 113 days or roughly 23 starts. Do you want to pay top dollar for a guy that has missed approximately 25% of his starts over a 3 year period? It is a killer to trade for a guy then watch him sit on the DL. Teams are going to be very risk adverse to guys like that. If they are going to deal for him they are not going to pay top dollar.
That is the entire worry with Roy. Smaller SP that has shown to have injuries late in the year. Team will look at this and value him accordingly.
I recommend you check this out.
One of the coolest tools on the net in regards to baseball injuries.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
And yet, since 2004:
He has been in the top twenty pitchers in baseball in innings pitched every single season, except for last year, when he was intentionally shut down early because the Astros were well out of contention.
So either it’s not significantly affecting his productivity, or every pitcher suffers from a similar amount of injuries (I would lean toward the latter).
23 STARTS?
How did you figure that Roy has missed 23 starts between ’07 and ’09. By your calculations Roy should have started roughly 40 games per season.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 21, 2010 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions
He added up all the day to day dates as well, which a majority of them ranged from 3 to 5 days which hardly means he misses a start.
I see only 2 15-day DL stints since 2004 totaling 31 days. Most everything else looks like normal wear and tear for pitchers as OremLK mentioned.
Roy Halladay btw has 3 15-day DL stints and 2 60-day DL stints since 2004. 223 total days.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 21, 2010 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions
wasn’t one of Halladay’s 60 day DL stints when he got smacked by that line drive on the arm/leg (can’t remember which).
2004? Just before the all-star break.
That was a lower leg fracture
from Wikipedia:
July 8, Halladay’s leg was broken by a line drive off the bat of Texas Rangers left fielder Kevin Mench.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 21, 2010 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Brown is not happening.
The Phils are keeping him because they have already admitted that Werth is not going to resign. Any trade for Oswlat won’t include Brown.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Perhaps the current proposal looks something like this:
Happ
Cosart
Singleton
That would be a huge return for Oswalt, but I’m going by reports that Wade is looking for that kind of deal (reportedly he wanted Mejia, Martinez, and Tejada from the Mets).
does singleton have to be a PTBNL? I’d be ok with that package, hoping that Singleton is as good as they say….I just think that Happ’s over valued.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 21, 2010 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions
then as of today, the could be included….
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 21, 2010 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions
For reference
The package of Happ, Cosart and Singleton would be worth around 60 million in surplus value for the Astros. That’s assuming both Singleton and Cosart are Top 50 players, as Baseball America ranked them at midseason.
Happ has about 20 million in value, mainly because he’s under team control for another four years. Assuming he averages a WAR of 2.0 each season, he’s got a pretty nifty value for not much money.
Oswalt, on the other hand, is worth about 10 million in trade if he puts up WARs of 5.0, 4.0 and 4.0 for the next three years of his contract. If the Phillies decline his 2012 option, his value drops to 6.1 million, assuming he’s at least a Type B free agent.
The Astros would clearly win this deal.
Agreed
That’s why I said it would be a huge return. The only reason I suggested it as being possible is that I’ve already heard rumors that it’s the kind of ridiculous deal Wade has been seeking.
Also because the Phillies may be undervaluing Singleton, going by that massive deal they gave Howard. (Giving him the contract suggests they don’t see Singleton as their 1B anytime soon, and now that he has it, Singleton would be logjammed soon if they don’t trade him.)
Haha, We Aren't Getting Brown.....You guys are silly
I am crossing my fingers this goes to a 3 way deal and we end up with Ray Prospects instead of Philly junk. I know that Cosart and Singleton are suppose to be rated high, but trading Oswalt would have to produce “sure thing” prospects, and guys in A ball wouldn’t do it for me.
Happ is garbage and that would really ruin my day if he was included.
How about?
Oswalt > Phils
Werth > Rays
Hunsicker > Astros
by baggs on Jul 21, 2010 10:19 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
via Twitter
BernardoFallas
#Astros RHP Roy Oswalt: Team hasn’t approached me about a trade. Would consider Philly. #hounews
by Timothy De Block on Jul 21, 2010 10:51 AM CDT reply actions
Link
http://twitter.com/BernardoFallas/status/19086024175
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 21, 2010 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Mark Berman interviewed McLane
And these tidbits get dropped:
“There is nothing imminent,” McLane said. “More than likely it will pick up next week.
”There are no serious discussions with the Phillies, just general discussions," McLane said.
“
Things usually don’t get going until four or five days before the deadline.”
Link.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 21, 2010 11:18 AM CDT reply actions
Houston gets: Brignac, Davis, Moore
Philly gets: Oswalt
TB gets: Werth, Singleton
Philly has to keep Happ, since they lost 2 starters they will need him.
I’d be happy with that return for the ’stros. You could sub in Happ for Davis and/or sub Singleton for Brignac.
I hope this deal gets done.
Hard to see why TB would want Werth; they may require an add’l prospect to do the deal.
If we just deal with Philly, I’d honestly want all 4 of those prospects listed above. If we get 3 of them, it may be ok depending on how much salary we eat, anything less than that would be disaster.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 21, 2010 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions
TB wants Werth because they really need a power bat and don’t exactly have an everyday right fielder. Zobrist often plays the position, but he’s really better off at second base, and acquiring Werth would allow them to shift him over there on an everyday basis.
Getting some outfield help would make it easier for them to trade Upton, too, which could replenish the team from prospects lost in the deal (Jennings is ready to play center field).
Also, if we got all four of the players I listed for Philadelphia (I’m assuming that’s what you were referring to), Ed Wade would be the new Daryl Morey. Bow down and worship.
I seriously doubt that’ll happen though.
How should we feel if we end up with J.A. Happ, Wade Davis and one other lesser prospect? I can see that as I’m sure Wade is looking for major league ready pitchers as the centerpeice of this deal.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 21, 2010 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I hope he resists guys with a ceiling to be 3, 4 or 5 guys
and takes the younger guys who project to being top of the rotation talent. I would even take a slew of young hitters and no pitchers. Just best available to me and not older guys just for the sake of pretending we are in a “win now” mode.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 21, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Upton's stock is pretty low right?
I could see them trading him though. After his little spout with Longoria and accusations of not hustling, he may have worn out his welcome. Who would get Upton? I sure as hell don’t want him. Sure maybe with the short porch in left, he could harness that power potential, but if he’s not hustling on the poor mans Rays, then what would he do on the most hated teams in all of baseball by the media? Its my 21st birthday today! MAKE IT HAPPEN DRAYTON.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 21, 2010 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
I doubt he would be traded to us
We’re kind of set in the outfield. I figured they would trade him to somebody else for prospects.
Gotcha
After I reread it, I kind of figured you meant that.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 21, 2010 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Unless
You throw Bourn in a deal.
The Rays don’t have a true lead off man, if you look at my fanpost Jason Bartlett has started a majority of their games leading off and is the worst at it in the league (by my analysis). I’m sure it’s a stretch but it doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 21, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Could be solved with Jennings
He has an argument for being the best prospect in baseball (the top 5 or so are really close after all these promotions). Then again maybe they wouldn’t mind putting him in LF when Carl Crawford leaves.
I’m only kidding about being the most hated team in the media, but we aren’t very liked. I’ll say that.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 21, 2010 12:12 PM CDT reply actions
via Twitter
Jayson Stark
Latest #Phillies-#Astros intrigue: Astros had scout Doug Brocail in Indianapolis to watch J.A. Happ on Tuesday (3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K).
by Timothy De Block on Jul 21, 2010 1:08 PM CDT reply actions
One thing I never liked
I never really liked how a trade rumor heats up, so each teams sends scouts out to watch potential players involved. If it’s me, I would already know if that’s a guy I want or not. His last start doesn’t matter.
If it’s for health reasons, I would figure the physical should take care of that.
maybe they want a more up to date report than the last time they saw that player back in May or even June.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 21, 2010 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions
He better not be the only centerpeice of this deal. There had better be another top 100 prospect involved, otherwise this trade is a disaster.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 21, 2010 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Happ, Cosart, and Singleton would be solid.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 21, 2010 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions
what's the chances....
Ed Wade gets Philly to throw in that Oscar Villarreal kid pitching on their AAA team?
The not likelys/ no chances:
Jeremy Hellickson- Rays
Domonic Brown- Phills
Possible, but not useful
The good fits:
Scott Mathieson-Phils
Alexander Torres- Rays
Matt Joyce- Rays- MAYBE
Desmond Jennings- Rays (Although i dont see them dealing him)
Jonathan Singleton- Phils
Brody Colvin- Phils
Jarred Cosart- Phils
Maybe
Oswalt→Phillies
Singleton and either Cosart and Colvin →Astros
Lyon→ Rays
Worth→ Rays
Desmond Jennings or Alexander Torres→ Astros
what I am hoping for
Stros get: Hellickson, Moore, Brignac, Aumont
Rays get: Werth, Lyon
Phils get: Oswalt, Feliz
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 21, 2010 2:55 PM CDT reply actions
That’d be a steal. Not happening.
Looks like this deal may fall through as Roy is rumored to be demanding that his ‘12 option be picked up. That’s not realistic. Philly is one of probably about 3 teams willing to add any payroll; you either want to go to a contender or you don’t.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 21, 2010 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions
from fallas
P Roy Oswalt on reports he is demanding his 2012 option be picked up by Phils: “I don’t handle that part of it.”
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 21, 2010 5:47 PM CDT reply actions
Pitchability?
What does that even mean? Also, getting Hellickson would be sweet.

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