Rate your GM: The Astros under Ed Wade (a year later)
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 20, 2010 8:24 AM CDT
in Editorials
34 comments
A little over a year ago, Evan wrote a piece where he recapped Ed Wade's moves as the General Manager of the Houston Astros and then asked us to grade Ed Wade about we felt about his performance. At the time that Evan wrote the piece, the majority of us saw Wade as a B. A B was not a bad grade for Wade to hang his hat on at all.
However, at the time Evan asked the question, the Astros were in the midst of putting together a nifty little stretch that would find them a half game behind the NL Central leading Cardinals after the All Star Break. Now, the Astros are burried in their division, we are watching with bated breath to see how Jason Castro, Chris Johnson, Bud Norris, and Felipe Paulino finish out 2010 as it will be a harbinger of the Astros' future to come, and Wade has also been tasked with convincing Drayton McLane rollover and sell Brett Myers and Roy Oswalt- if a perfectly matched suitor can be found. Since Evan wrote that piece, the Astros have gone 80-105, which is .432 baseball or a 70-win season. In summation, things have fallen apart.
The Astros have also had a rather exciting draft, seen fruit start to bloom on the farm, and Brandon Lyon and Brett Myers help Ed Wade give a big middle finger to many commentators of Wade's offseason moves (including myself on the Lyon front). Pedro Feliz, however, has struggled, but his struggles have allowed us to take a legitimate look at Chris Johnson, which may never have come to pass were the Astros not out of options. But, the $12.5 million in committed salary has, thus far, provided only $4.5 million in value due to the -$6.4 million that Pedro Feliz has produced, according to FanGraphs. Let us also not forget that Ed Wade pretty much turned nothing into Matt Lindstrom in a winter trade with the Marlins. But then there is also the fact that Ed Wade had to pull the plug on the Kaz Matsui experiment, which was of his own making entirely. The silver lining in that is that Jeff Keppinger has proven to be a rather savvy acquisition from last year's Drew Sutton trade. Heck, Jason Michaels has even had positive value for the Astros in 2010.
The point I am trying to illustrate is that—so far—2010 has been dismal, as was the second half of 2009. But in that time frame, things haven't been all bad for the Astros franchise or even the Astros big league team. The question I am curious to have answered, though, is whether this mixed bag has been mixed enough help to keep our community of fans' faith in Ed Wade? So what say you:
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I see his performance as a B
But on the B-minus side of the grade, teetering toward C+ if he fails (either by inaction or selling too low) at the trade deadline.
Maybe we should have a post-deadline poll as well and see how the grades compare?
I’m with OremLK, I gave him a B but would lean more towards a B-.
The only complaint I have is his signings and I’m a little worried with some cash what Ed Wade would do with that money. However he was mainly brought on, or at least in my view, to restock the farm system which he seems to be doing a good job at. Of course when you’re ranked 30th there’s no where to go but up, but there have been some clear positives out of the drafts he’s been a part of. He’s also shown to be good on the trade market, and magic on the waiver wire.
I wouldn’t mind re-evaluating my grade after the trade deadline if a trade is done. However if no trades are made, it would be difficult for me to change my trade considering we wouldn’t know who was offered.
I gave him a D+, mainly because he’s only had 1 good free agent signing, Lyon, which he probably over paid for in terms of money and possibly years. Brett Myers is a bit of a different issue. On the surface, the contract and returns have been great. If Wade is able to flip Myers for a decent prospect the Astros could actually use, then I’d be willing to put Wade in the C/C+ range depending on the returns. However, if Wade doesn’t trade Myers, then was the contract worth it? Yes and no. Yes because he won games for the Astros, but no because he won games for the Astros which could cost them positioning in next year’s draft. Paying Myer’s $5.1M and losing out on Rendon would make it a push (still not a bad signing).
His trade record has been better (Tejada aside), but he was basically “buying” and not selling. Which makes me wonder how well he’d do with trading Oswalt, Myers and whoever else they can/should ship out. His Philly history of trading Rolen and Schilling doesn’t make me too optimistic.
I see your point re:Myers
But don’t you have to feel the same way about Lyon then? If the goal you would like the Astros to achieve is to finish dead last, then why would we praise Ed Wade for acquiring any player that allows them to win baseball games? The same would go for Linstrom as well. Under that criterion, though, Feliz is a huge hit.
I think that Myers may be the best signing Ed Wade ever makes as an Astros GM (He is also only owed $3.5 million this year).
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jul 20, 2010 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Lyon's different
I’m not a fan of the Lyon contract, but it is for 3 years, so you’d have to at least hope there’s a plan, but there probably isn’t. Either way, Brett Myer’s contract is basically a 1 year deal, which makes for a “win now” mentality, which this team is not built for. So if you aren’t going to win with Brett Myer’s wouldn’t it be better to not have him, take the chance of a worse record, get a better draft pick and you could even re-allocate that $3.5M plus that $2M buyout for signing some of this years draft picks like Jacoby Jones and taking a flyer on a kid next year?
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 20, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
More considerations involved than just that
For one thing, you have the bullpen to think about. It’s irresponsible to intentionally put out such a bad rotation that you know with a reasonable amount of confidence that your relievers’ arms are going to get put through a meat grinder.
Second, there is a line of reasoning that even general managers of bad teams have a responsibility to try to make cost-conscious moves to improve their team and put a decent product on the field for the sake of the fans.
Finally, as you already mentioned, it’s a time-honored strategy to pick up a free agent reclamation project, hope he gets back to his peak potential, then try to flip him for prospects. That may well have been Wade’s plan. We will see in the next couple weeks as there is certainly interest out there in Myers.
I think I’m not getting my point across. I think the Myers signing was a good signing as it stands today.
If he’s flipped for a good solid prospect or two, then I’ll call it a great signing and would bump my view of Wade in a more positive direction.
If Myers isn’t traded or the return is a couple non-prospect types, then I think the signing is basically a push neither good nor bad, but that the long term side effects (ie, losing draft position) could outweigh the short term positive, which could (in theory) make this not so much a bad signing, but a useless one.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 20, 2010 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
I voted B
But it is a B- all the way. The only move that Wade busted on this offseason is Feliz (and what a bust it was) and he is paying Bradon Lyon too much for too long. Those two faults aren’t enough for me to really knock the guy down a peg too far. I think the Myers signing will bear fruit in terms of a trade and if Wade can find a suitor for Oswalt, then the franchise will gain a lot. I find myself content with where the Astros are organizationally, and I credit Wade with shaping much of the road that got us here.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
My vote was a C-.......
so I had to give him a D. After the VERY disappointing year in 2009….I was expecting some MAJOR changes…mainly to our rotation…DIDN’T happen….I really like our rookies…BUT…if you’re gonna give a grade to a GM or MGR or OWNER…there’s only one word that dictates what that score is gonna be…..and that word is….SCOREBOARD!!
B-
This year’s deadline will be huge for him and could easily swing him to an A or a D.
His trades and free agent signing have washed in my opinion, but his ability to get McLane to commit to building through the draft and int’l rookie signings makes his performance above average.
His main work is ahead of him, seeing what he does at the deadline and what he does when he finally has big payroll flexibility to work with will determine what kind of job he has really done.
-If Lyon was putting up identical #‘s, but in the closer role instead of the setup, his contract would be a great deal for Houston, so I don’t see that deal as a loss.
-He won big on Lindstrom, Keppinger, and Myers.
-He lost big on Feliz.
-Pudge was a wash.
-I’d call Tejada a slight loss. He played great while he was here and none of the prospects we gave up have turned into all-stars. But, it is still a deal I would not have done.
What other impact moves has he made?
by Snake Diggity on Jul 20, 2010 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Also, he may have turned Kevin Cash into a starting shortstop…
by Snake Diggity on Jul 20, 2010 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
pudge move i liked
was ok here. gave us 2 prospects
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 20, 2010 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
I couldn’t help myself; I went to MLBTR and looked at all his moves:
Trades:
-Lidge trade: win (for both teams, but when you turn a struggling closer into an all-star CF, it’s a win).
-Josh Anderson trade: slight loss, minimal impact.
-Tejada trade: slight loss
-Valverde trade: push
-Wolf trade: win
-Hawkins trade: win
-Keppinger trade: win
-Pudge trade: push
-Lindstrom trade: win
That’s a pretty good track record for trades. The only downside is that he only made 2 major deals (Lidge and Tejada), but overall I think he has come out ahead on his trades; judging solely on this, I’d give him a B+.
Free Agent Signings:
-Matsui: huge loss
-Moehler: push
-Pudge: push
-Feliz: huge loss
-Lyon: push
That’s not a good track record for free agent signings. Luckily none of those deals were franchise killers (a la Carlos Lee), but still, not a good sign. Judging only by his FA deals, I’d give him a D.
The drafts in his Astros tenure have been about a B or B+, so I’d say overall he’s done a B- job.
Like I said before, the real judge of his performance will come when he makes these important deadline deals (or doesn’t) and when he has significant $ to play with in free agency, combined with when his drafts start really producing MLB players; all of this will happen in the next 2-3 years.
One interesting and depressing fact I learned just now is that Ed Wade has NEVER been GM of a playoff team…sigh.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 20, 2010 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
He also has a good track record of getting guys off the scrap heap (Bourgeois, Chacin, Lopez, Cash, etc.).
The more I think about it, the more I think he is a quality GM and underrated.
In his years with the Phillies, his drafts averaged producing 1 all star per year…pretty damn good. If he keeps that up with Houston, we’ll be contending again in no time.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 20, 2010 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Cash?
For all his trash heap guys that have worked out ok, he’s got quite a few that have been terrible:
Russ Ortiz
Mike Hampton
Yorman Bazardo
Chad Paronto
Reggie Abercrombie
Jose Cruz Jr.
Jack Cassel
Oscar Villarreal
Runelvys Hernandez
Shawn Chacon
Jose Castillo
I’m just pointing out, that hopefully he’d hit on something with all the discount shopping he does….
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 20, 2010 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Again, those weren't terrible
Ed signed those stop-gaps for next nothing money wise and gave none of them multiple years. None of them were expected to save this team and in no way hampered any progress of the team overall. (except maybe Cruz Jr. That was hard to watch)
They are all classic examples of buying low hoping for the best. Which hurts very little in the present and can yield large returns if successful. Ie. Arias, Kepp, Myers, Lindstrom, Fulchino…
agree....
sort of. I’m not saying that any of those guys listed above cost much if anything. All teams pick up these types of guys and hope for the best. I’m just pointing out that while some guys have worked out, lots and lots of guys haven’t.
There’s a saying “even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while.” It’s not really a skill that Wade has in finding these guys if he’s “hoping for the best”, it’s luck.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 20, 2010 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Understood
The main thing to take away is that all players/moves are not weighted the same.
Example: Jose Cruz Jr failing far less significant than Brandon Lyon failing.
So it’s apples and oranges for the most part. Most of the players on that list were not expected to significantly improve the team, as say Valverde, Myers were
I’m not talking about the guys considered to be “major acquisitions” or difference makers. Snakediggity was talking about “scrap heap” guys, so Lyon is not part of this conversation, as far as I’m concerned. He pointed out that Wade was really good at getting guys on the cheap, and I was stating that he was “successful” more because of probability and luck than some sort of nack or talent.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 20, 2010 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I disagree on a few of those
Valverde was not a push, he was a win. Valverde had two very good years, one of those years led the league in saves. Not to mention a very nice bump in the following draft. We lost Qualls, who has just totaled 44 saves in his entire time in Arizona, same as one year of Jose in Houston.
Also, Tejada was not a loss. The only player we lost that turned out to be anything of value was Luke Scott who unfortunately had no place with this team anyway. Carlos Lee was signed while Scott was still here and Pence was our future RF. Tejada brought TONS of energy, fans, and a new feeling in the clubhouse guys like Berkman said he hadn’t seen since Baggy. He made games bearable to watch.
Another day same story with Matsui. Matsui was NOT a huge loss. Again, if we go back to the 2007 off-season and actually remember what Ed’s situation was. The Astros 2B was Chris “Huge Bust” Burke. Wade’s ONLY options for a 2B was Burke, Matsui and Luis Castillo. Burke was awful, Castillo was coming off knee surgery and Matsui had put up good numbers (granted in Colo.) Ed made the right choice! He picked the least of the three evils and lost. In hindsight, Castillo would have probably been the best pick, but don’t forget he signed for four years and much more money than Kaz. Regarding Kaz’s salary, The Cubs are responsible for that. They tried and steal Kaz, thus driving up the price.
Pudge was a win also. Helped Wandy, filled seats w/ record, brought energy, 2 prospects and cost next to nothing.
I’d say Valverde was a win considering he picked up two picks from him signing with Detroit this off season, and he pitched well for the Astros.
agreed
Chris Burke, Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls for Jose Valverde, Mike Foltynewicz, and Michael Kvasnicka. It’s almost a good trade if you just take Valverde out of the equation.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 20, 2010 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
When you look at it like that, it was a win.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 20, 2010 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
How come nobody mentioned Ed Wade's role in
Angel Sanchez
Brad Mills
The New Domican complex (actually I don’t know what his input was there)
Dumping Chris Burke
Also many of you are evaulating the Pedro Feliz out of context. Astros had NO third baseman other than Geoff Blum and Jeff Keppinger, both of whom were better suited to bench roles. Chris Johnson based on his 2009 perfomance was a long shot for this year. The hoped for third baseman was Miguel Tejada and that fell through on salary demands.
I did not like the Lyon signing, but Astros lost two dependable relievers in Valverde and Hawkins. I thinktheyare gone becaeu of Drayton McLane’s financial requirements and not anything Ed Wade failed to do. He got the two best he could afford; and both have performed (Lyon as reasonably expected; and Lindstrom above expectations).
He’s moved young guys up , and it’s cost the team games; but his eye is on the future.
He’s moved promising minor leaguers up at a faster pace than we’ve seen in a decade.
Overall, I give him the same bottom line as a year ago -He’s a lot better than I thought he’d be, with a nagging suspicion there is a better choice for GM out there.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 20, 2010 11:47 AM CDT reply actions
Re. Feliz
Last year the Astros had the third worst Run/Game output in the NL at 3.97, just ahead of Pittsburgh (3.95) and San Diego (3.94). The Astros needed to add offense where ever possible. They had open positions at SS, C and 3B and he plugged in Manzella, Towles/Quintero and Feliz in those spots respectively. The first two positions where added in-house and they failed miserably. There were other options out there, even cheaper ones such as Felipe Lopez that he could have added which would have brought better returns than Pedro Feliz.
I get the Feliz signing if you have a good offense, with a “hit first / field second” SS that could use a little help to his right defensively. Execpt that the Astros had/have a terrible offense with a “field first / never hit” SS.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 20, 2010 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
I think some differences here are that you are seeing miserable failure where the rest of us are seeing “well, he did okay”.
In terms of the Towles/Quintero combination I was actually 100% onboard with it, and was upset when they sent Towles down to the minors after 40-something at bats. I didn’t think there were any free agent catchers or trade targets available who would have been worth signing with Towles a solid option and Castro also close to the majors.
For Manzella… well, he was coming off a solid season at AAA, and the shortstop market wasn’t exactly brimming with great options either. The only good FA shortstop was Marco Scutaro, and I did want the Astros to sign him; but in hindsight, not getting locked into a multi-year deal with a 30+ year old shortstop was actually good, because it wouldn’t have been enough to put us over the edge into contention. We also don’t know whether he would have signed with us for a similar price to what he signed for with Boston. For all we know he could have taken less money because he wanted to play there.
I’m not saying that’s necessarily the case I’m just saying that we don’t know enough to ascertain all of the conditions of why Wade didn’t get him.
The only real mistake, I thought, was Pedro Feliz, a product of Wade’s insistence on buying free agents too early instead of waiting for bargains. I too would have preferred Felipe Lopez for either second or third base.
My grade
I gave him a B. I think his job has been slightly better than that, but I can’t grade a GM with losing seasons better than a B.
The most important moves Ed has made:
New Director of Scouting = Heck (Huge win, as of now)
New Manager = Brad Mills (His 1st manager selection, and looking good so far)
New Pitching Coach = Arnsberg (Good on paper, needs more time to decide)
Establishing new emphasis on talent development vs FA signings.
There will always be small moves that are seen as negative, but you need to remember that the overall structure and organization of the team is completely different, for the better I believe.
Too Soon to Tell
The next few weeks will be critical. For the first time in forever the Astros have the go ahead to sell. If he can convince Drayton to pay some salary and get good prospects in return, he’ll have taken a huge step forward for the franchise. If not, it’ll be more of the same mediocre team, not good enough to compete but not bad enough to draft a reliable impact player.
by seanbergmanrules on Jul 20, 2010 2:00 PM CDT reply actions
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