FanPost

Player by Player Trade Likelihood

Here's what I think the odds are of each player on Houston's roster being traded.  Who do you guys think gets moved?

Pitchers:

Roy Oswalt- This has been talked about enough.  I think Roy could fetch a top 100 type prospect along with 1 or 2 other mid-level prospects, depending on how much salary Houston eats.  Odds of being traded: 70%

Brett Myers- Brett can help any contender fill in the back of their rotation.  He is pitching well above his salary and requires no commitment beyond this year.  I think he could fetch a B grade prospect.  Odds: 50%

Wandy Rodriguez- Wandy has rounded into form, is pitching about at his value, and has another year of team control.  He could help a contender as a #4 or #5 starter and IMHO has equal value to Myers, but I think trading him now would be selling low.  Odds: 20%

Felipe Paulino- Paulino is pitching well above his salary and has yet to fully realize his potential.  It’s highly unlikely Paulino gets traded since Houston will need someone to build around.  Odds: 1%

Bud Norris- Bud has been very good since returning from his injury.  Again, highly doubtful that Houston moves him as he will be counted on as a back-end starter or setup man for the next few years.  Odds: 1%

Wilton Lopez- Given how well he has pitched for most of this year, he may be able to help someone.  However, without an established track record, I doubt any buyer would want him.  Odds: 1%

Brandon Lyon- with experience as a closer and a solid 2010 to date, Lyon has value.  His contract probably detracts a little, but depending on how bad Houston wants to move toward youth, he may get some sniffs.  Odds: 10%

Matt Lindstrom- IMHO Lindstrom has a high value given his current success, ceiling, and salary.  But since he has 2 more years of team control (and since there aren’t any potential closers waiting in the wings), I think it would take a ridiculous offer for Houston to move him.  Odds: 10%

Players with little to no trade value: Brian Moehler, Tim Byrdak, Gustavo Chacin, Chris Sampson, Jeff Fulchino, Casey Daigle

Position Players:

Lance Berkman- Berkman has rounded into form lately and could help any team looking for a 1B, LF, or DH.  The problem is his salary.  I don’t see Houston eating enough of his contract to make trading him worthwhile.  Odds: 30%

Michael Bourn- I don’t see any team offering enough for Houston to move an All-Star CF with 2 more years of team control. Odds: 1%

Hunter Pence- While Houston does have several prospects in AAA and AA that could potentially replace Pence, he is a fan favorite and is under team control for 3 more years. Odds: 5%

Jeff Keppinger- Kepp has had somewhat of a breakout season and could help a team needing a utility infielder.  Trading him now would be selling high. Odds: 20%

Carlos Lee- sigh. Odds: 1%

Jason Castro- no way.  Odds: 0%

Chris Johnson- nope. Odds: 0%

Jason Bourgeois- Has value, but doubtful he gets moved. Odds: 1%

Geoff Blum- Highly unlikely a team offers anything for him, plus the Astros may need his versatility depending on who else they trade. Odds: 5%

Players with little to no trade value:  Ozzie Navarro, Angel Sanchez, Jason Michaels.

I honestly think the only move we will see is Oswalt, although I think it’s foolish to hang on to Myers.  I’d be interested to see what kind of interest Keppinger and Wandy garner.  If there were any contenders desperate for a closer I’d move Lyon’s and Lindstrom’s odds much higher.  Thinking about Carlos Lee makes my stomach hurt.

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