Player by Player Trade Likelihood

Here's what I think the odds are of each player on Houston's roster being traded.  Who do you guys think gets moved?


Roy Oswalt- This has been talked about enough.  I think Roy could fetch a top 100 type prospect along with 1 or 2 other mid-level prospects, depending on how much salary Houston eats.  Odds of being traded: 70%

Brett Myers- Brett can help any contender fill in the back of their rotation.  He is pitching well above his salary and requires no commitment beyond this year.  I think he could fetch a B grade prospect.  Odds: 50%

Wandy Rodriguez- Wandy has rounded into form, is pitching about at his value, and has another year of team control.  He could help a contender as a #4 or #5 starter and IMHO has equal value to Myers, but I think trading him now would be selling low.  Odds: 20%

Felipe Paulino- Paulino is pitching well above his salary and has yet to fully realize his potential.  It’s highly unlikely Paulino gets traded since Houston will need someone to build around.  Odds: 1%

Bud Norris- Bud has been very good since returning from his injury.  Again, highly doubtful that Houston moves him as he will be counted on as a back-end starter or setup man for the next few years.  Odds: 1%

Wilton Lopez- Given how well he has pitched for most of this year, he may be able to help someone.  However, without an established track record, I doubt any buyer would want him.  Odds: 1%

Brandon Lyon- with experience as a closer and a solid 2010 to date, Lyon has value.  His contract probably detracts a little, but depending on how bad Houston wants to move toward youth, he may get some sniffs.  Odds: 10%

Matt Lindstrom- IMHO Lindstrom has a high value given his current success, ceiling, and salary.  But since he has 2 more years of team control (and since there aren’t any potential closers waiting in the wings), I think it would take a ridiculous offer for Houston to move him.  Odds: 10%

Players with little to no trade value: Brian Moehler, Tim Byrdak, Gustavo Chacin, Chris Sampson, Jeff Fulchino, Casey Daigle

Position Players:

Lance Berkman- Berkman has rounded into form lately and could help any team looking for a 1B, LF, or DH.  The problem is his salary.  I don’t see Houston eating enough of his contract to make trading him worthwhile.  Odds: 30%

Michael Bourn- I don’t see any team offering enough for Houston to move an All-Star CF with 2 more years of team control. Odds: 1%

Hunter Pence- While Houston does have several prospects in AAA and AA that could potentially replace Pence, he is a fan favorite and is under team control for 3 more years. Odds: 5%

Jeff Keppinger- Kepp has had somewhat of a breakout season and could help a team needing a utility infielder.  Trading him now would be selling high. Odds: 20%

Carlos Lee- sigh. Odds: 1%

Jason Castro- no way.  Odds: 0%

Chris Johnson- nope. Odds: 0%

Jason Bourgeois- Has value, but doubtful he gets moved. Odds: 1%

Geoff Blum- Highly unlikely a team offers anything for him, plus the Astros may need his versatility depending on who else they trade. Odds: 5%

Players with little to no trade value:  Ozzie Navarro, Angel Sanchez, Jason Michaels.

I honestly think the only move we will see is Oswalt, although I think it’s foolish to hang on to Myers.  I’d be interested to see what kind of interest Keppinger and Wandy garner.  If there were any contenders desperate for a closer I’d move Lyon’s and Lindstrom’s odds much higher.  Thinking about Carlos Lee makes my stomach hurt.

SB Nation Featured Video
Log In Sign Up

Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join The Crawfish Boxes

You must be a member of The Crawfish Boxes to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Crawfish Boxes. You should read them.

Join The Crawfish Boxes

You must be a member of The Crawfish Boxes to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Crawfish Boxes. You should read them.




Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.