Player by Player Trade Likelihood
by Snake Diggity on Jul 12, 2010 2:14 PM CDT
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PrintHere's what I think the odds are of each player on Houston's roster being traded. Who do you guys think gets moved?
Pitchers:
Roy Oswalt- This has been talked about enough. I think Roy could fetch a top 100 type prospect along with 1 or 2 other mid-level prospects, depending on how much salary Houston eats. Odds of being traded: 70%
Brett Myers- Brett can help any contender fill in the back of their rotation. He is pitching well above his salary and requires no commitment beyond this year. I think he could fetch a B grade prospect. Odds: 50%
Wandy Rodriguez- Wandy has rounded into form, is pitching about at his value, and has another year of team control. He could help a contender as a #4 or #5 starter and IMHO has equal value to Myers, but I think trading him now would be selling low. Odds: 20%
Felipe Paulino- Paulino is pitching well above his salary and has yet to fully realize his potential. It’s highly unlikely Paulino gets traded since Houston will need someone to build around. Odds: 1%
Bud Norris- Bud has been very good since returning from his injury. Again, highly doubtful that Houston moves him as he will be counted on as a back-end starter or setup man for the next few years. Odds: 1%
Wilton Lopez- Given how well he has pitched for most of this year, he may be able to help someone. However, without an established track record, I doubt any buyer would want him. Odds: 1%
Brandon Lyon- with experience as a closer and a solid 2010 to date, Lyon has value. His contract probably detracts a little, but depending on how bad Houston wants to move toward youth, he may get some sniffs. Odds: 10%
Matt Lindstrom- IMHO Lindstrom has a high value given his current success, ceiling, and salary. But since he has 2 more years of team control (and since there aren’t any potential closers waiting in the wings), I think it would take a ridiculous offer for Houston to move him. Odds: 10%
Players with little to no trade value: Brian Moehler, Tim Byrdak, Gustavo Chacin, Chris Sampson, Jeff Fulchino, Casey Daigle
Position Players:
Lance Berkman- Berkman has rounded into form lately and could help any team looking for a 1B, LF, or DH. The problem is his salary. I don’t see Houston eating enough of his contract to make trading him worthwhile. Odds: 30%
Michael Bourn- I don’t see any team offering enough for Houston to move an All-Star CF with 2 more years of team control. Odds: 1%
Hunter Pence- While Houston does have several prospects in AAA and AA that could potentially replace Pence, he is a fan favorite and is under team control for 3 more years. Odds: 5%
Jeff Keppinger- Kepp has had somewhat of a breakout season and could help a team needing a utility infielder. Trading him now would be selling high. Odds: 20%
Carlos Lee- sigh. Odds: 1%
Jason Castro- no way. Odds: 0%
Chris Johnson- nope. Odds: 0%
Jason Bourgeois- Has value, but doubtful he gets moved. Odds: 1%
Geoff Blum- Highly unlikely a team offers anything for him, plus the Astros may need his versatility depending on who else they trade. Odds: 5%
Players with little to no trade value: Ozzie Navarro, Angel Sanchez, Jason Michaels.
I honestly think the only move we will see is Oswalt, although I think it’s foolish to hang on to Myers. I’d be interested to see what kind of interest Keppinger and Wandy garner. If there were any contenders desperate for a closer I’d move Lyon’s and Lindstrom’s odds much higher. Thinking about Carlos Lee makes my stomach hurt.
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im hoping
a team like the red sox, or another team, has a 3b or 1b injury and want feliz on veteran depth for the postseason run…ill take a low A prospect with decent upside
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Jul 12, 2010 2:44 PM CDT reply actions
At this point, given the strong ‘08-’10 drafts, prospects at the lower levels may not be worth trading for, since you’d have to make room for them somehow. My thinking is that unless a deal will net Houston a AA or AAA ready player, it’s probably not worth making.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 12, 2010 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Nice post
I think Oswalts chances are decreasing, the pitcher everyone wanted is off the market and now you’ll start seeing the Brett Myers level of pitchers being moved. I think the combination of Oswalt’s desires, and salary keep him in a Houston uniform.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 12, 2010 3:07 PM CDT reply actions
Pedro Feliz is terrible.
Has negative trade value. He is the WORST OFFENSIVE PLAYER IN BASEBALL. His .546 OPS ranks dead last among all Major Leaguers with at least 250 PAs. He’s over 20 points below the next guy, Cesar Izturis (.569).
The really bad part is he’s getting worse and not better….
Feliz is like the Pontiac Aztec. As soon as he was signed everyone knew it was a bad idea, except the Astros, who within 5 short years have turned themselves into one of the worst 4 or 5 teams in all of baseball. Somebody deserves to be fired over this, and I don’t mean Sean Berry….
Here’s the kicker. There’s no hope. The Astros have one legit prospect in Jordan Lyles, and a few fringe guys (JD Martinez, Tanner Buesche). Only blind Astro fans, however many there may be left, thinks this team is 2 or 3 years away from competing. Ed Wade better get HUGE prospects for Oswalt, which is highly unlikely, because 1. he’s an idiot, and 2. he won’t get what the M’s got for Lee, which still wouldn’t be enough to get this team on the right track.
2018 is going to be our year!!!
Why's that?
What is it that I said that seems far fetched?
Pedro Feliz is terrible?
He is.
That the Astros only have only 1 real prospect?
It’s Jordan Lyles, a couple maybes and a bunch of nobodies.
That Ed Wade is an idiot?
The Brett Myers signing aside, what else has he done that’s turned out right?
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 12, 2010 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Pedro Feliz has been terrible, but was not expected to be coming into the season; he was expected to be about average. You’re indulging in the benefit of hindsight.
The Astros have plenty of real prospects. Considering how closely I follow the farm system, I think I should know.
Ed Wade is not an idiot. He’s made some good moves and bad moves. More good than bad this year; Matt Lindstrom has turned out to be an excellent acquisition. Brett Myers surpassed all expectations. Brandon Lyon has been decent, and seems to be at least justifying what initially seemed an overpaid contract. But most importantly, Wade is prioritizing the farm system in a way that it hasn’t been for years.
I think Feliz has trade value if he sent to the right team, namely a contending team which has a desperate need for a good defensive corner infielder and a “veteran” presence. The best chance for a trade is probably to the Phillies, since they like Feliz and Polanco has been injured. Feliz’s defense is better than he has shown so far this year; I doubt that any GMs are fooled by the small sample this season. You probably don’t get much back other than a player to be named later. If the Astros pay some of his remaining salary, they might get a low level C grade prospect.
Who thought Feliz was going “…to be about average”? His OPS had declined every season for the last 7 seasons, which would lead me to believe his OPS this season would be less than last, which was .694. Sub .700 OPS are not about average. Diving a little deeper, you’d see that even though Feliz had a .658 OPS on the road, and a .625 OPS in the second half last season. Knowing that how could anyone think that Feliz was going to be average. The guy hasn’t been average since 2004, which is his ONLY full season he’s posted an OPS+ above 86.
I know you follow the farm system. I do to. I see one guy who has an absolute legitimate shot at being a solid if not really good major leaguer and that’s Jordan Lyles. No one outside of Houston considers JD Martinez or Koby Clemens or Jon Gaston real prospects. Maybe Ross Seaton, maybe Tanner Bushue, maybe Jio Mier and maybe a few others might pan out, but maybe they don’t. Which is why they are the “maybies”. You got a few real relief prospects, which means in about 3-4 years the Astros could have a real solid bullpen, and a couple starters (maybe).
And last, yes Ed Wade is an idiot. For the Matt Lindstrom, LaTroy Hawkins and Brett Myers there’s also the Pedro Feliz, Darin Erstad, KAZ MATSUI, Miguel Tejeda (1 day before the Mitchell Report was released), Shawn Chacon, Mike Hampton, and Russ Ortiz. For all the decent moves, he’s made some really unexplainable like Kaz and Feliz. Also, Ed Wade’s track record with the Phillies was to let their legit prospects linger in the minors in favor of veterans (Howard and Utley come to mind).
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 12, 2010 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Its not like
our team was gonna be supremely competitive anyway with the way Timmy Pupura pooped on our farm system while allowing Drayton to continue living in the stone ages.
On prospects, Hello sir, i think you fail to realize how young the lot of our prospects are. We have plenty good arms in the lower minors right now and plenty of up and coming bats. Jio isn’t worrying people; he is walking at a good rate and has recently been a lot more consistent. Jon Gaston has never been considered an elite prospect in our system. Koby Clemens is actually being looked at as a legit big leaguer since his power isnt a fluke. Also, we made a really promising signing with Ovando too…so calm down, be patient.
Who thought Feliz was going "…to be about average"? His OPS had declined every season for the last 7 seasons, which would lead me to believe his OPS this season would be less than last, which was .694. Sub .700 OPS are not about average. Diving a little deeper, you’d see that even though Feliz had a .658 OPS on the road, and a .625 OPS in the second half last season. Knowing that how could anyone think that Feliz was going to be average. The guy hasn’t been average since 2004, which is his ONLY full season he’s posted an OPS+ above 86.
You do understand that defense is part of value, not just offense, right? I meant average overall, which is about a 2-win player. When you say his OPS has been in decline, that’s deceptive; the difference from season to season has been negligible, well within the margin for statistical error.
2007: .708 OPS
2008: .705 OPS
2009: .694 OPS
Couple offense a little below average (average is around .750) with above average defense, and you have a player who is approximately average. Feliz produced 1.7 wins last year, 1.6 wins the year before that, and 3.1 wins in 2007. Average overall production was a reasonable expectation. Also, he historically had very good numbers in MMP, in contrast to his lower road numbers.
And last, yes Ed Wade is an idiot. For the Matt Lindstrom, LaTroy Hawkins and Brett Myers there’s also the Pedro Feliz, Darin Erstad, KAZ MATSUI, Miguel Tejeda (1 day before the Mitchell Report was released), Shawn Chacon, Mike Hampton, and Russ Ortiz. For all the decent moves, he’s made some really unexplainable like Kaz and Feliz. Also, Ed Wade’s track record with the Phillies was to let their legit prospects linger in the minors in favor of veterans (Howard and Utley come to mind).
Most of those moves you listed are very low-cost bargain basement maneuvers. Are you really calling Wade an idiot for minor league free agent signings and cheap bench players? In fact, players like Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz actually provided value above their respective costs, according to WAR.
The only one of those moves which was really costly in hindsight was Kaz Matsui, and at the time, he was the best option on the market. I also notice that you neglect to point out most of the moves he made which did work out in our favor. Michael Bourn and Jeff Keppinger, for instance.
Wade is not a great GM, but he’s not an idiot.
I won’t get into the farm system thing here. I’ve written plenty of long articles about it, so I don’t want to rehash what I’ve already said. Suffice it to say, I disagree.
by OremLK on Jul 12, 2010 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
There was question among several of us before the season began that Feliz was declining in both his offense and defense. A decline is a decline just the same, while his OPS may of been well within margin for statistical error if you look at his slugging it shows a clear decline from a peak in 2003 of .515 to .302 today. His ISO has also seen better days with the same type of down ward trend.
Feliz was signed more for his glove though, which had also seen better days statistically. Feliz so far has turned out to be a bad signing, especially considering their were other cheaper and younger options on the market like Felipe Lopez.
I don’t think Wade’s an idiot though, he can work some magic off the waiver wire and in making trades, he’s just bad at free agent signings.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 12, 2010 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions
2003 was clearly Pedro Feliz’s career year. But everybody is on a decline if you measure it from his career year. Nobody was reasonably expecting a repeat of 2003. He was fairly consistent from 2005 – 2009 (not a small sample size). Fangraphs even called him Mr. Consistency last year. Can you find another player with a 5 season stretch of keeping his OPS in a .025 range?
A reasonable prediction of Feliz’s production based on the “decline” you point out would probably be around .675-.690 OPS. His actual OPS of .546 represents falling off the freakin’ table. That’s a .150 point drop where his largest drop in OPS since 2005 was .011 points. I don’t blame GMs for failing to predict performance that is drastically out of line with recent evidence.
Now, I’m not saying Wade didn’t take on risk when he signed Feliz…at some point, one would expect age to catch up to Feliz, as happens with every player. But then again, Feliz wasn’t hired to be an all-star 3B…he was hired to be a better everyday option than Geoff Blum if Chris Johnson didn’t work out during Spring Training. It was a reasonable budget-based signing based upon what was available on the market at the time, and a team philosophy of upgrading the defense.
My point though was that if you look deeper into the OPS number you can look at his SLG and see that he had a pretty consistent decline since 2003.
As a comparison Feliz had a .386 SLG last year, Keppinger had a .387 SLG last year.
by Timothy De Block on Jul 13, 2010 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions
I’ll give that Feliz had been a solid defender in the past and that there’s a glaring decline this year in that regards, but he’s also been one of the worst offensive 3B in the NL the past few years. Coming into this year the team had huge question marks at SS, 2B and Catcher. Signing a guy that most people knew would not produce at a league average level doesn’t make sense.
And his OPS has dropped from .790 to .694 over the course of 7 years. Each year there was a drop, though between ‘05-’09 it’s been 23 points. However, it still shows that he’s never been an average offensive production and only provided value with the glove.
I wouldn’t say the Michael Bourn trade was a huge win for Wade. Bourn’s been up and down, and a leadoff hitter that’s getting onbase at a .327 clip over the course of his Astro career isn’t really doing his job. He’s 27 and should be entering the prime of his career, and really doesn’t have alot of projection left. He’s most likely going to be a guy that struggles to get on base at a significant rate. Like Feliz used to be, his value is increased by his fielding ability. Though the speedy slap hitting types usually peak by the time they’re 28, which means we may have already seen the best of Michael Bourn.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 12, 2010 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Looking at Bourn’s rate stats alone is going to give a woefully incomplete picture of his value to the team.
You also have to consider his stolen bases and his defense. If you take his stolen bases into account (by adding stolen bases to his total bases and subtract out his caught stealings), his slugging percentage (total bases/at-bats) goes up by about 60 points, from .330 to .392. Now that’s a crude measure of the value of his SB, but I think it does a decent job of showing his value on the basepaths, effectively turning singles into doubles.
On the defense side of things, this has been his best year in an Astros uniform if you go by fielding percentage or UZR/150. Maybe clack can chime in with his defense score using Dewan’s +- system. He’s been worth over half a “win above replacement” on defense alone this year. And if you look at the highlight reel plays he’s put up this season, you’d probably agree that his defense has saved the Astros quite a few runs.
Finally, we traded away just a single (albeit fantastic) year of Brad Lidge to get many more years of Michael Bourn (4 seasons?). Even if Bourn has had his best year, he’s still really valuable and I think this was a great trade for Ed Wade.
Michael Bourn’s value to the team is tied to his ability to get on base, which he’s not particularly skilled at. I’m going to give you two slash lines:
1222 PA – .285/.329/.340
1552 PA – .260/.327/.344
The first slash is what Willy T did over his tenure (‘05-’06) as an Astro and the second is Michael Bourn’s Astro career numbers. That’s not a positive thing we have here. Michael Bourn is at the simplest of levels, a right handed Willy T.
I know Bourn is a 1st class defensive CF. But the problem lays in the fact that he bats lead off, and maybe that’s not fair to him. Maybe he’d be more valuable batting 7th or 8th, but unfortunately the Astros already have those spots filled with the likes of Castro and who ever they dug up to play SS that day.
My problem with the Lidge trade, was that it seems Wade had blinders on and took what he wanted and didn’t fully explore Lidge’s value. Could the Astros have received more than just Michael Bourn and 2 scrubs?
It’s kind of like the Tejada trade, which so far has turned out to be Tejada for Scott, but had Wade waited one day, he probably could have gotten Tejada for a lot cheaper. OR, did McLane & Co. know that Tejada was going to be in the Mitchell Report and wanted to make the trade early, so they could basically act like they were stuck with him and not have to answer the hard questions of why they would traded for a known cheat.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 13, 2010 8:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Bourn’s career OBP number include a big outlier in terms of 2008, when he had a .288 OBP. There probably is a reason for that: first season as a starter, playing in front of his home crowd, and playing for a manager who criticized him for taking too many pitches. Contrary to your conclusion, I don’t think Bourn’s 2009 will be his career year. His .354 OBP is right in line with his OBP in AAA and AA. Bourn currently is hitting into some bad luck with his .310 BABIP so far in 2010. If you run his 2010 season through the HT BABIP predictor, his BABIP should be .362, which would put his OBP up in the range of what he did in 2009. Regression is likely to take him that direction in the next year or so.
Granted 2008 seems to be low, but 2009 could be a bit high. Bourn is closing in on 1,700 PAs and has a career .328 OBP, with this year he’s sitting a .331. It’s to the point to where we should be able to say, “he is who he is.”
Outside of his torrid April this year, he’s been absolutely terrible. Since May 1st he’s at .239/.306/.316. He finished last season hitting .256/.296/.291 in September. He’ll be 28 going into next season and he quite possibly has 5 or more seasons of quality baseball ahead of him, but there’s also a real good chance that he starts bouncing around the league or is out of the majors in the next 3 years.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 13, 2010 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions
Which is why they are the "maybies".
There is no such thing as certainties, when it comes to prospects. I don’t care if they are the number 1 prospect in MLB, there is still a 30-40% fail rate.
I’m saying they may end up being “prospects”, in that we can reasonably assume they’ll be able to contribute on the major league level to some satisfactory level. Jordan Lyles, one can reasonably assume he’ll end up in the MLB rotation and it’s reasonable to assume that he’ll be successful (to what extent, no one knows).
Koby Clemens is almost there. For some reason, I keep thinking that Clemens peak would be something in the neighborhood of Russell Branyan (yes, I know Branyan’s lefthanded and Koby’s right handed), but in the .250/.340/.490 range with limited defensive offerings. And that may be giving Clemens too much credit at this time.
I’m not big on alot of the guys the Astros have like Bushue, Gaston, Steel, Austin, ect. I’m holding out hope that JD Martinez is going to pan out, though I think the consensus among national publications like BP or BA is that he’s not.
From a recent chat on BP:
Why no love for Jordan Lyles? Is he the only thing us Astros fans have to look forward to, or is JD Martinez legit?
Kevin Goldstein: Not very excited about Martinez, unfortunately. Lyles however, I’m a big fan of. Just because I don’t think a guy is a Top prospect in ALL OF BASEBALL, doesn’t mean I’m dinging him.
_____________
I’m not saying Goldstein’s the authoritative figure, but I’d love to know what other guys like Jim Callis or Keith Law thought about Martinez.
by Reverend Koosh on Jul 13, 2010 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Your going by what one person says. “Expert” or not, he has probably nevern seen him play. This is what they do. They look at stats and age and draw from what previous players have done. Which is basically applying a population statistic to an individual. It looks good on paper but realistically it doesn’t. You can apply that population statistic to any single minor league player. The fact is, he is in his first full year of professional baseball and is learning a new defensive position while leading in just about every statistical offensive category. There is no reason to be down on him. Is he a top 100 prospect? No, he has to prove he can do this at a higher level but there is no reason to say he has no future.
As far as the other guys you mentioned. Bushue was a borderline top 100 prospect for many publications before the season and was terrific before his foot injury and has struggled since but still is striking guys out a solid rate. No reason to be down on him besides a high fly-ball rate. Gaston and Steele, I can understand being down on them as I am down on Steele. But, Gaston has had bad luck this season and may still turn out well. Austin on the other hand is 19 and in playing in A+ ball. When adjusted for age, he is above average at the plate. Factor in that he plays above average defense in a premium OF position and is the second best base stealer in the Cal League, you have a solid player.
Jiovanni Mier was also a top 100 prospect in just about every publication and nobody has said they think he won’t make it to the majors. Everyone has dampened the idea of him being a star at the plate but his BB/K rates are still solid as well as his defense. He’s also been rebounding and still may have an above average season at the plate.
trades lineup
a big change would be either bench carlos lee or move him way down in the batting order…put johnson in cleanup…give berkman some protection… they walk him now to get to lee…and then lee hits into dp…maybe castro in cleanup?… cant be worse than c lee… agree feliz is awful.. release him… move on… bourgeois..is real good… he would be better than c lee in lf..better defense..probably overall better offense… use c lee to tell jokes on the bench he seems to like to tell jokes…some fool might actually trade for c lee…we have good pitching.. starting pitching is very very good… solid… relief is pretty good…build around what we have…but the offense is absolutely terrible…magnus
Bourn is an above average leadoff hitter.
Keppinger is not a 2 hole guy; he is a good OBP guy and would be fine in the 7 or 8 hole…although his defense is not that great. I would trade him.
Berkman, although he is slumping this year, is a valid 3 hole guy…we have no one waiting to replace him…his salary diminishes his value…I would hang on to him.
Lee is a turd, but his contract makes him literally untradeable and at $18M you have to play him and hope he is a cleanup quality hitter. He is singlehandedly keeping this organization from rebuilding correctly.
Pence is an above average #5 hitter.
So that leaves 2B, 3B, SS, and C to fill in 2,6,7,8…we don’t know what we have in Castro, Johnson, and Manzella quite yet…if I"m in charge I would put them in at 6-7-8 and see what we have….hopefully Castro blossoms into a #2 (with his high OBP he could add a little power and get there), Johnson a #6 (if he keeps up what he has done since his most recent call-up), and Manzella an 8 (he will never be a good hitter, but there’s still hope he improves his bat enough to allow his defense to justify his roster spot). IF ALL that happens, you need a 2B, if you keep Kepp he can be your 7 hole…if not hopefully you get someone via trade (for Oswalt, Myers, or Keppinger) that can help you.
Norris and Paulino have shown enough IMHO to justify saving a rotation spot for them the next 2 years at least…they both may end up as #3s but for right now you can pencil them in as your 4-5 guys.
Myers is a viable #3 but his contract is up and he will test free agency so IMHO you have to trade him now.
Oswalt is an ace, if you get value, go ahead and move him, but if not, he can be an ace next year. I think if you move him you have to get at least one ML ready player who can anchor your team (either a starting pitcher or position player).
Wandy is a good #4 or a below average #3…I don’t think you can get fair value for him via trade and he is under team control, so I think you roll with him.
So in your rotation next year you’ll need a #2 (assuming you keep Oswalt or get his replacement in the trade…of course whoever you get won’t be an ace yet, but can at least take his spot in the rotation…Lyles will probably be ready to fill that empty #2 spot in 2012 but in 2011 you probably go out and sign a FA as a stop-gap…someone you can either get draft picks for via an arbitration decline or get prospects by moving him via trade when you are out of contention.
I think the bullpen is in good shape…it can be deep if prospects keep moving up…Lopez, Chacin, Gervacio, Wright, Meszaros, Villar, Lo, and Nevarez all have a chance to be young bullpen arms in Houston next season…you have Lyon and Lindstrom for 3 more years, but if you get a good trade offer now, I’d take it.
There are 2 (and only 2) bright spots for Houston:
1.) there is finally an obvious committment to youth (Castro/Johnson promotions) and stocking the farm (‘08-’10) drafts.
2.) starting this season with the probable trading of Oswalt and declining of Berkman’s option, there will finally be some significant payroll to play with to add free agents.
To compete next year, everything has to go right (young guys develop as hoped, Lee rebounds, and all free agents pan out), but 2012 and 2013 we will most certainly be on the improve.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 13, 2010 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Query Angel Sanchez
My Cardinals fan buddy at lunch today said Cardinals need a shortstop who can field, hitting is irrelevant (nice if they can get it but not a prerequisite).
With that tidbit in mind, maybe Angel Sanchez has some trade worth (or Manzella).
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 12, 2010 5:09 PM CDT reply actions
Manzella is pretty much equivalent to Brendan Ryan, who is the incumbent St. Louis shortstop. Ryan is a plus defensive shortstop with weak hitting skills. I wrote an article before the season suggesting that Manzella might turn into a Brendan Ryan type shortstop. At the time Ryan was coming off a decent offensive year; at this point his offense this season is pretty similar to Manzella’s. I haven’t seen enough of Sanchez to guess whether he is better or worse than Manzella; my guess is that he is similar.
Additional notes regarding Ryan:
Despite his errors in games against the Astros (first series), both advanced fielding metrics (DRS, UZR) like Ryan this year. Brendan Ryan is +11 in Defensive Runs Saved this year, which is better than Manzella at +2. I think Ryan played sparingly in the last Astros series (Tyler Green played shortstop most of the time…very poorly) because his offense is slumping so much.
trades
good and interesting analysis… clee makes my stomach hurt too… i think he could and should be moved… have to eat some salary…but a number of contenders could use a dh….. also, berkman should be moved due to age…big contract.. he is still a very good hitter and a-1 lst baseman… if he was in a better lineup his stats would be better…agree re myers… he is actually a young pitcher..try to resign him..$8m per would be ok..if you cannot resign then trade…keep keppinger… trade pence..he is average player…trade lindstrom.. big return… oswalt too…but return has to be big…if he was 30 yrs old i would keep him…rebuild around bourne, norris, wandy, paulino, keppinger, castro, johnson, quintero, keep bourgeois..he is versatile, cheap…trade for all up and comers…aa and aaa guys…. do it now…times a wasting..this season is over…use the rest to rebuild…manzella looks good..so does the ss we just got…one has to start hitting…or goodbye….magnus
Unfortunately Lee has to stay an Astro. There are no elite LF prospects waiting to take his place (although Bogusevic, DeLome, Shuck, etc. will probably be big leaguers, they are not 3-4-5 hitters). Trading Lee would mean eating 75% of his remaining contract AND still not getting elite prospects back in return. It just doesn’t make sense to trade or release him; his contract is THAT bad.
I do believe Berkman has some value to a contender since he can be a FA after this year. I think there are teams who he could help who should be willing to give up decent prospects for him…not sure it happens, but I can certainly see situations in which it would.
I don’t think you could get fair value for Hunter Pence right now; keep him.
I’d shop Lindstrom, but unless the return is mindblowing, you gotta get fair value. There are no closers ready in RR or Corpus.
I don’t think Wandy is someone you re-build around. He is a guy you may keep so that you have some semblance of quality in your rotation while you rebuild, but he will not be a major part of any future Astros contending teams.
I’ll be VERY disappointed if Houston doesn’t make at least 1 MAJOR trade this deadline.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 19, 2010 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
Do you think a team like the Padres would be interested in Berkman?
by PeteyNhtown on Jul 19, 2010 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Possibly, but I’ve read that he wouldn’t waive his no-trade for a west coast team.
Right now, I think Roy goes to the Dodgers (with the Yankees being my 2nd guess), Myers goes to the Mets (with the Phillies being 2nd), and Lance stays put (if he does get traded, I’d have a hard time guessing where…many teams could use him, but none seem to be a perfect fit).
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Keppinger get some looks, but I doubt any other players get traded.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 19, 2010 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Dodgers
are mired in a ugly owners divorce , there’s no way in hell they could take on signficiant salaries right now.
the Red Sox just got over the luxury tax hump and is looking to dump.
Aside from the Yankees, teams that seem to have a reaonsable chance of taking Oswalt’s money seem very limited, I guess the White Sox could try, but they’re already stuck with Peavy’s contract and their offense is hurting them more than their pitching.
Still, if that’s the case, then the odds of netting much of interest for Oswalt in the event of a Yankee trade is meh, the last time the Yanks made a comparable trade, the Phillies got completely hosed by Brian Cashman, even with a improvement on that won’t be too impressive.
Aside from Jesus Montero and mayyyybe Austin Romine, the Yanks prospect can basically be split into the “high upside but a TON of questionmarks” or “good performance but not much pedigree / tools” type, not exactly a exicing proposition.
If Houston eats the remainder of Roy’s 2010 salary (which they have been reportedly willing to do or at least get close to), I don’t think the ownership situation will affect this deal. The divorce settlement is a near certainty to be ironed out before next season, when the $16M Roy is owed will come into play.
If Roy doesn’t go to LA, I think it will be because Houston is not realistic about the return they want, not because of LA’s ownership turmoil.
Shoot, if the Texas Rangers can add Cliff Lee WHILE IN BANKRUPTCY, the Dodgers can add Roy O.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 20, 2010 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Pedro Feliz
I hear Scott Rolen has been injured for the Reds. Perhaps we should offer Pedro Feliz as a suitable replacement (cackles).
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Friday, Apr 6, 2012, 6:05 PM CDT |
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| Sat 04/07 | 6:05 PM CDT | |
| Sun 04/08 | 1:05 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Houston
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Pittsburgh
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.15.2012 at 6:05 PM CST)
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