Amateur Draft Profile: Stetson Allie, RHP, St. Edward HS (Ohio)

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Summary

Allie is a 6-foot-4 behemoth of a pitcher, who has acquired a reputation after sitting at 98 and hitting 100 with his four-seam fastball. He has a big, stocky frame that reminds me a little of Roger Clemens. His delivery fits into the "dip and dive" form, which may give him some added velocity. He finishes easily, without too much of a violent finish with his back leg, leaving him in a good fielding position. His arm slot was also surprising. It's a little lower than three-quarters, which may lead to some of the wildness that's been reported.

The other thing to note about Allie is that there have been rumors of PEDs. In fact, one of the Google suggested searches is for "Stetson Allie steroids." Those rumors are unfounded, as he's never tested positive for anything, but it's worth noting.

Floor

Like many of his prep fireballer ancestors, Allie has the potential to bust quickly. If his fastball loses velocity with pitching every five days and if he can't work more on his control, Allie may not make it above Double-A. However, even if he doesn't develop anything other than his fastball, he could fill in the back of someone's rotation easily. After all, Kyle Farnsworth has had quite the career with the same repertoire.

Ceiling

If his slider holds up in the pros and if his changeup continues to develop, Allie could be a great No. 3 starter. He has the frame to be an innings-eater at the next level and if he can control his four-seamer, he could be a strikeout machine. Bud Norris seems like another good comparable, though Norris has more movement on his four-seamer.

College Commitment

University of North Carolina

Will the Astros pick him?  If so, where?

Rumors seem to be linking the Astros with every arm and prep bat out there. One of the mock drafts mentioned that the Astros had interest in Allie, but that wasn't confirmed or supported by any of the other analysts. Allie is stockier than many of the prepsters the Astros have gone after the past two seasons, and his lack of a breaking pitch or control doesn't fit their mold either. With that fastball, he'll be long gone before the third round. That's the earliest I could see the Astros being interested, though.

Where is he projected to go right now?

Keith Law has him going No. 25 to the Cardinals.

Andy Seiler has him at No. 25 to the Cardinals.

Deep Leagues has him at No. 14 to the Brewers.

Jonathan Mayo has him at No. 17 to the Rays.

Perfect Game USA has him at No. 11 to the Blue Jays.

Frankie Piliere has him at No. 16 to the Cubs.

Bibliography (Scouting Reports and Video)

Below the jump.

MLB

Baseball Beginnings » Brian Ragira vs. Stetson Allie

Baseball Rumor Mill

Keith Law's take:

Allie has been a 'showcase legend' for years, according to one scout who has seen him on and off since Allie was a high school sophomore, and has inspired other scouts to tell me he's 'a carnival act' and 'a freakshow' because of his unbelievable arm strength, notably his ability to throw a 100 mph fastball right over the catcher all the way to the backstop.

He'll pitch at 92-96 in games to try to keep it around the plate, and I've seen him throw a ball that looked like it was rising in violation of the laws of physics. He has the arm speed for a plus slider but the pitch is inconsistent right now, and his changeup is more of a show-me pitch

His arm action is short and he has great arm speed once he gets started. He could also be drafted as a power-hitting third baseman, although his thick build may push him to right field.

Allie carries extremely high risk, but the arm offers a commensurately high reward. But if you're reading this and thinking, 'Hey, that's Colt Griffin,' I can't tell you your instincts are wrong.

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