Is Brett Myers for real? And should that even matter to the Astros?
by Stephen Higdon on Jun 29, 2010 9:00 AM CDT
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The Astros' offseason had people talking this year. Unfortunately for us, it had them using phrases like "don't have a grasp on reality" and "what are they doing?". It had me in an existential funk at moments, but one that didn't leave me cursing the baseball gods for destining me to be a fan of this team was when Ed Wade announced the signing and contract of Brett Myers.
Myers' career path has been interesting for a number of reasons; the on the field reason being that he bounced between starting and closing games from 2006 to 2008. Coming to the Astros off an injury-plagued 2009, he had question marks all over him. In terms of raw statistics, with little attention paid to their context, Myers' FIP to xFIP comparison of 6.14 to 4.32 indicated the gods of random chance had decided to give Myers some possibly due karmic justice in terms of his HR/FB percentage (from 15.6 percent in 2008 to 23.4 in 2009). Anyone who has ever heard of the concept of reversion to the mean could take a look at that those numbers and reasonably estimate that Myers' HR/FB percentage would come back down to earth.
The stats weren't the whole picture, though. As clack so astutely opined, it was reasonable that Myers would return to form from his injury, but the injury concerns lingered. As we approach the halfway mark in 2010, Myers has been a pleasant surprise in the Astros rotation having provided both quality and quantity. Myers' performance is a great story for Ed Wade to complement his offseason pitching acquisitions performing far better than the saber-crowd on the internet all confidently predicted this offseason. But, this is not really what we should be concerned about.
Brett Myers has been stellar so far this season. And he has been stellar in spite of a decline in strikeouts compared to his career levels (6.84 to 7.45 K/9), a continued tailing off of his fastball velocity, a decrease in his LOB% by nine percent, and a slightly above average BABIP (.315). The only place that Myers' numbers have improved is his HR/FB percentage, which is further aided by a decrease in his fly ball rate generally. His HR/FB percentage is a full 50 percent below his career average of 14.9 percent and still well below the typical league average of around 12 percent.
Maybe Brad Arnsberg has helped Myers with his two-seamer or maybe Myers has figured out how to control his offerings better. It is certainly possible. The objective viewpoint inclines one to assume that Myers will perform somewhat more akin to league average or his career average in that department. When/If that happens, Myers' numbers will look less glittery. His FIP (which doesn't take into account HR/FB) is 3.58, but his xFIP (which does) is 3.99. That's certainly nothing to scoff at as his 3.99 mark places him in the top 40 among all starters who have amassed 60 innings pitched thus far.
Brett Myers has been for real this year. He is not quite as good as his 3.20 ERA leaves Joe Morgan and Tim McCarver to believe, but that is not the point.
Rather, it's not really what should concern Ed Wade. The Astros are a bad team. They are actually doing really well being the best at being a bad team, but they're not quite there—yet. Myers represents a true bright spot on the Astros and is only due $1.62 million for the rest of the season as of last night. He is the ideal half season rental for a team that is a starter shy of surviving the divisional series.
He is the ideal trade piece for the Astros, too. The acquiring team is on the hook for chump change with the likelihood that Myers will re-test free agency after this season or can be bought at a discount. That means the Astros can leverage better prospects for a player who is not a hometown hero. Worrying about what Brett Myers' HR/FB regression means to his second half performance is not a discussion that Ed Wade should be having unless he is lying through his teeth to another GM on the phone.
Brett Myers has been a pleasant surprise for Ed Wade, but now it is time for Ed Wade to take house money and let it ride.
**I have noted this once before and I got no acknowledgment of it: Am I the only one who constantly attaches a "y" to the end of Brett when typing Brett Myers. For instance, I literally just typed Bretty instead of Brett right then.**
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Philly
If we forget baseball ability for a moment, and focus on the mental part of the game I think Myers just needed to get out of Philadelphia. If you are not comfortable in the situation you are in, it can be a struggle to get the best out of your body, especially on the mound. I think more than anything else, a fresh start has done him wonders.
Philadelphia is a tough environment. As Bob Uecker once said “You know what they do when the game’s rained out? They go to the airport and boo landings”. The boo Santa Claus (Father Christmas to us Brits), they boo their own mascot, they boo vice President candidates (justifiably), they booed Adam Eaton (also justifiably, although rather harshly when he collected his World Series ring). I think this pressure really did not help when Myers struggled to find consistency.
If I were a GM thinking about acquiring Myers, I would be wondering whether he could handle the pressure of a pennant race after chilling out here in Houston. Now I’m not saying that he has not been tested, but Myers has looked very unruffled at times.
Anyway, that’s my two cents, saber free.
Agreed completely.
FanGraphs did an article on this recently, suggesting that Myers, not Oswalt, is our best trade piece. I’d have to agree with that assessment.
I’m not sure whether the market for either player will appear until Cliff Lee gets traded, though. Let’s hope that happens soon, and that the M’s set the market by getting a massive return.
I think one thing that the standard stats, whether advanced or just ERA, don’t account for is the ability of a starter to save the bullpen by pitching deep in games. Though I have seen fangraphs writers ridicule “innings eaters,” and argue that relievers are inexpensive players, that is completely theoretical, rather than real world. In the real world, most teams do not have infinite bullpen depth or the ability to acquire comparable reliever replacements when bullpen injuries occur. And that is where guys like Brett Myers can be more useful than the run prevention stats indicate. If you use game score, Myers has 10 quality starts, which gives a better idea of his value.
It’s this value which means that Myers has some significant value to the Astros currently. Maybe this deviates from popular opinion, but I wouldn’t trade Myers unless the Astros are getting a significant overpayment in return. (And perhaps the circumstances mentioned in the article make that a possibility.) But I wouldn’t trade Myers if the Astros are getting the typical C grade or B- prospects. I don’t mind Myers continuing in the rotation this season if it helps to prevent the Astros from shredding what few bullpen arms haven’t been shredded already. And if Myers is willing to accept the option because he likes playing in Houston, I think there would be value to picking up the option too. If Myers isn’t around, Wade will sign another damaged goods starting pitcher, in the Hampton or Chacon mold, and I prefer Myers to one of those signings.
I’ve got several areas where I’m not sure I agree with this. First, are our current relievers assets worth treating with special care? I would say no, for the most part. They aren’t more valuable than the prospects we might get back for Myers. The ones who are important parts of the future won’t be overused because they perform specialized one-inning roles (Lyon and Lindstrom). Furthermore, we have a lot of reliever prospects at A+ and AA and on extended DL trips, and by the time we contend, we should be able to fill our bullpen with them.
For the most part, we’re talking about guys like Gustavo Chacin, Chris Sampson, Tim Byrdak. I would feel bad about abusing their arms, but frankly, these are guys who are probably happy just to have a big league job.
None of them scream “significant value” to me. If we can get even one B- prospect (with some grade C guys who have decent upside), I would take that deal. Of course you try to get the most you can, and Myers might bring more back than that, but that’s the baseline for me.
Also, I don’t agree that Myers will pick up his half of the option. I think there is virtually zero chance that he does. It doesn’t make financial sense for him. If we want him back, we will have to pay him more money and more years, and I wouldn’t be willing to do that if I were Wade.
And by the way, the only reason I wouldn’t accept just grade C prospect (unless we got a good number of them and they were young guys with high ceilings), is because we can get a supplemental first round pick when Myers departs for free agency.
The Astros have got to get some legitimate prospects at the trade deadline. It would be braindead of them not to do so. And the best trade piece we have is Myers.
I have to agree with Clack. I know its logical to think that we won’t contend for a few years. But the fact of the matter is, Ed Wade has to at least make an attempt to contend. His job rides on his performance and Drayton doesn’t rebuild. In order to save his job, he has to attempt to contend next year, and Myers could help with that. Yes, there is a solid possibility that he doesn’t pick up his option, but Wade could pull together a deal that if Myers picks up the option, we’ll give him an extension for another year with a solid pay raise or something in that nature that is attractive for Myers. With that in mind, i’m not going to just give him away. Now, I do agree with you that we are very likely not to contend next year, but you have to think about it from Ed Wade’s perspective. He has to have a job. And you have to do your job based on what your boss wants. If Drayton wants to try to contend, that’s how your gonna do it.
And, I’m not so sure on your argument about the supplemental first round pick. Since there are options there, I don’t think we get picks in return. I know if we decline Berkman’s option, we don’t get a pick for him signing else where. This is slightly different with it being a mutual option, and I’m not sure how it is if we pick up the option and he doesn’t. I’m just not sure how all that works with player options.
I believe clack (or was it someone else?) looked into the Elias situation recently and it turns out that we do indeed get a draft pick if we pick up our half of the option and Myers declines his (assuming he’s a type B free agent at the end of the season).
Obviously, if he picks up his half, then we get a cheap good pitcher, so picking up the team half is a win-win, if he gets type B status. However, I still think we can do better on the trade market. A grade B- prospect and some grade C prospects with upside is better than a supplemental first round pick, and like I said, I don’t think he’s going to pick up his half of the option.
You make a good point that it’s possible if we guarantee an extension. But that does depend on the terms of the deal, and whether he even wants to keep playing for a non-contender. Myers seems like a competitive guy so he might want to leave either way.
Yes. The information I found indicates that he would provide draft choices, if he is Type A or B (and I don’t know that he will be either), if the Astros pick up the option and he doesn’t. In that situation, it’s a win-win if the Astros pick up his option, since they either sign him for $8 million or get draft picks.
I’m not sure that the $8 million extension cost is that far below what he would get on the market next year. I agree it is probably lower, but I doubt that it’s by more than $1 million or so. Really, we won’t know, though, until we see how the market unfolds next year. So, I think it’s conceivable that he might accept it, depending on what other teams are interested in him. Myers has taken a lot of grief from fans and media in other cities, and he has stated that he prefers Houston, from that standpoint. He also has stated a preference for playing in the South.
Gervacio and Wright could be back in the bullpen before the season is over; those guys, as well as Lopez (who is referred to as a “rubber arm” by Mills…which worries me) and Fulchino, are bullpen arms which I would particularly be concerned about. Generally speaking, I think the organization has a responsibility to protect its human assets. Structuring your team so that the organization doesn’t burn through bullpen arms strikes me as a “best practices” management which the organization should follow. And keep in mind, even if the bullpen arms are replaceable in the future, they also could have trade value if they are displaced.
I see the point generally
But I just don’t think the Astros can pass up this opportunity. Guys like Wright, Gervacio, Fulchino, and Sampson are a vital part of the team, but they’re more easily replaced than I think just about any other position. This is not to say that they should be abused, though.
My guess is that Fulchino and Sampson are probably already done in as the result of 2009, so I can’t bring myself to lose much sleep over their over use. Especially when I feel like the ends justify the means in this instance. I may be too bullish on the return that Myers could bring, but I think it is vital to the health of the organization to do so. If the Astros perform worse as the result of Myers not being on the roster the rest of the way- so be it. At this point the difference between 90 losses and 100 losses doesn’t phase me.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jun 29, 2010 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions
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Current Series
3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
| Sat 05/26 |
WP: Kenley Jansen (4 - 0)
LP: Wesley Wright (0 - 1) |
3 - 6 loss |
|
Houston Astros
Sunday, May 27, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75. |
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 1:03 AM CDT)
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