Saturday Morning Astros LinkFest
Lots and lots and LOT of stuff to cover this morning, so we'll get right to a more traditional links post to start your day.
The biggest news to come out of last night was that No. 19 overall pick Mike Foltynewicz has agreed to a deal with the Houston Astros. This Brian McTaggart piece lists the bonus at somewhere around 1.3 million, which is close to the slot value for the pick. The deal won't be official just yet, but should be announced early next week. I know OremLK should be thrilled with this. One down, two to go.
Speaking of the draft, Bryan Smith over at FanGraphs has two very enlightening pieces up on 2011 draft prospects. Here's the story on the position players and here's one on the pitchers. I know it's still early in the process, but Anthony Rendon sure would look good in Brick Red, wouldn't he? If the Astros don't end up with the first overall pick, I'm sure Matt Purke wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. After all, he did strike out 11 Longhorns Friday in the Super Regional. As a true freshman. Not too shabby, either.
The Hardball Times breaks down the draft by the numbers. I was surprised to see that the Astros drafted the fourth-most high school players of any team. The fact that the Red Sox and Pirates drafted more didn't surprise me. One can spend the money to sign them away from college scholarships. The other needs as many high ceiling players in its system as it can get. I didn't expect to see Toronto second on the list of high school signees. This may be a response to new GM Alex Anthopoulis' rein.
I don't know if you've been following this series, but Beyond the Box Score has been breaking down their list of the best 50 players for the next 50 years. Not surprisingly, there were no Astros on it. This post, however, shows that only one Astro made it into their Top 100 list. I don't even know how to feel about that. I guess Michael Bourn is our only legitimate candidate to be on there, but he's not exactly saber-friendly (he doesn't walk much or hit for power). So, looking over the list, do you disagree with any of their choices? See any Astros that should be included?
It's nice to see a list of the most GIDPs in a season, and also nice to see Miguel Tejada recognized for how incredible he was at killing rallies. 32 GIDPs takes a lot of work. You have to have a team believe in you enough to send you out there, you have to be slow enough to avoid beating out those grounders and you have to swing at a lot of pitches. Good job Miguel!
Another interesting list of stats is this one from Baseball Reference, with all the teams who won at least 10 one-run games. The 2004 Astros were incredibly lucky to have that good a record in one-run games. It also explains why they had such a good end kick to the season. Notice the 2007 Astros made the list too at 12-9.
Continuing this march down Astros memory lane, Wade Miller pops up on this list of most 100 pitch games in the first 50 of a career. As the author points out, there weren't enough arm injuries here to suggest a full correlation, but I had never really tied Miller's injury to his usage patterns. We talked about Hunsicker's lack of talent production in the early part of this last decade, but could Larry Dierker and Jimy Williams have contributed to some of that?
Wondering why Brett Myers pitched so many innings on Friday? It was because Matt Lindstrom was out with back spasms and TIm Byrdak was also nursing an injury. On the bright side, Bud Norris is making his rehab start with Round Rock tonight and Chris Sampson will be throwing in a simulated game in Corpus Christi on Sunday.
Alyson Footer was on fire twittering about Roy Oswalt's media session in New York. I'm sure the small-town guy would LOVE to be exposed to that sort of inquest every day. I especially liked this dig about the NY headlines. We at TCB NEVER go for inflammatory headlines...
Another great FanGraphs piece about players who perform better in the majors than the minors. First, it puts the Johan Santana Rule V decision in more perspective. Sure, it was an ovesight that he was left off the 40-man, but his track record sure didn't scream that he was destined to be one of the best pitchers in the league. It also makes me briefly question whether we should spend so much time worrying abou the minor leagues. Then, I realize how much I love digging through those box scores and go on about my business.
Were you ever wondering exactly how you should be using FIP in analysis? Or xFIP? Or how it all relates to BABiP? Here's a timely article to explain it all for you.
With all the bad calls in baseball, is it surprising that the man in charge of overseeing the umpires got canned? Well, "reassigned" is a better way of putting it, but he's still not doing his job. MLB doesn't apologize to players like they did to Roy Oswalt for his ejection. It was an embarrasment, as was the Perfect Game That Wasn't. Something had to be done, and rearranging those job duties is a start. Let's see if anything changes in the next few weeks.
Lastly, I don't know that we linked to this Morgan Ensberg piece over at ESPN. He talks about his draft experience in that very unique way he's developing over at his blog. I loved it, though the commenters on ESPN didn't. I always wonder how players react when they hear that they're drafted. In one fell swoop, Esnberg told us a great story as well as bringing the players' lives into perspective a bit. Just great stuff.
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On the GIDP records, it’s worth noting that the three big names on that list, Tejada, Rice, and Ripkin, share similar batting profiles. They are high average hitters who don’t walk much, don’t strike out much (particularly in relation to their slugging), and hit an above average number of balls on the ground. All three have K rates in the low to mid teens and BB rates well below 10%. In fact, the similarity of Ripkin’s and Tejada’s career BB% and K% is surprising. These two Orioles’ shortstops seem like the same player if you look at peripheral batting stats.
Most baseball people think these “contact” traits are good. And to some extent that’s true. Good things can happen when you hit the ball, as they say. (I just saw Garrido saying that on the local sports segment.) Other than Ben Grieve, you don’t see any three true outcome players on that GIDP list. And the MLB has had many really slow three true outcome hitters (like Dave Kingman, Rob Deer and Adam Dunn). That’s one reason I’ve come to the conclusion that it is good to have a mix of 3TO hitters and contact hitters in the lineup.
Obviously, the ideal is that the high contact hitters you have are also speedy so they can have a high BABIP and stay out of the double play. But that’s not always possible.
Maybe DeShields will become that kind of player with some power too.
That's unlikely...
but I like the way you think!!
by titansfan4ever on Jun 12, 2010 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Where will Folty start?
Something I was thinking about this morning. Obviously the Astros’ pattern is to put high school arms in rookie ball, but Folty is special. He’s different from guys like Lyles, Bushue, Seaton, and so forth. I’m paraphrasing Bobby Heck when I say that’s he’s very advanced for a prep pitcher. He already has two ML-quality pitches and flashes a third (the curveball).
I think there is a strong case to be made for him starting out at Lexington right away, and being put on the same development track as Bushue… let them compete with each other and see how it goes.
I disagree. The highest you start him off should be the NYPL. Just because you don’t want to throw him up with guys who have at least a season of short season pro ball, some more, and at least half a year of low A ball, some more too, after pitching in HS. You start him in Greenville, if he dominates a few starts, move him to NYPL, if he dominates a few, then let him get his last few starts in Lexington.
I’m pretty big on putting guys where they can be challenged, and I just don’t think that will be the case in rookie ball.
Guess we’ll find out.
I agree he needs to be challenged, and he’s very likely to be ahead of everyone else in rookie ball. But, you have to give some thought to the difference in level of competition between HS and Lexington. That’s a big jump. Some of the things he gets by with in HS won’t in Lexington, and he needs to clean up those things and thats what happens in those short season leagues.
Purke
If he’s a true freshman this year, wouldn’t he be draft eligible starting in 2012, not 2011?
by The Advocate on Jun 12, 2010 8:51 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
He’ll be a draft-eligible sophomore next year.
by David Coleman on Jun 12, 2010 9:20 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I can handle 4-3....
what I can’t handle is 14-3…On a brighter note, would love to get Purke, he totally had one the best teams in college baffled yesterday…would much rather have him piching for us instead of facing him, that’s for sure!!
BtB Top 100 over next 5 years...
Looking at their data, it appears that Hunter Pence is No. 85 and there is no appearance of Bourn in the top 200. So the 1 Astros player on their top 100 list apparently is Pence. One thing which makes me a bit skeptical of the rankings is that the author used his own defensive stats, or if he didn’t have any, he used CHONE. That may well understate the defensive value of Bourn and Pence.
2011....
I DROOOL (Yes—drool with 3 O’s) at the thought of the Astros possibly being able to pick Taylor Jungmann or Matt Purke.
Both are BIG-TIME STUDS on the mound. I think both have multi-year MLB All Star potential.
I think OremKL was the one who commented about Soup
so I’ll stick this in here.
“I think (Duncan) has seen something that makes him think there’s some Soup left.” – LaRussa
I’ll believe it when I see it. Personally, I think a part of his problem is that he’s put on weight and looks to be out of shape. A somewhat similar although better pitcher is Dempster. One soft, one a workout warrior.
Rendon and Purke FTW!
It would be great if the Astros were able to get either one of those players since both are probably going to be stars, and they are from our area. I guess we gotta start losing! Oh wait, we are already doing that!
In Morey We Trust
Bourn top 100
hmmmm….well the Bourn thing on the list. Looking at his ceiling, and I mean his CEILING, you’d be talking about maybe somewhere near Kenny Lofton with less pop as I can’t see Bourn hitting 15 home runs in a season.
If we have a fire sale, there is a possibility we might be even worse = no. 1 or 2 draft pick.
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