What to expect from the Astros bats for the rest of the season?
by Stephen Higdon on May 3, 2010 6:00 AM CDT
in Stat Geeky
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PrintThankfully—for me—my U-verse has been on the fritz for the last week and has yet to fix this issue. Because a channel can only be watched for 30 seconds before the screen freezes, I have been forced to listen to the radio or watch Gameday to keep up with the Astros. This has definitely been a blessing for me. Had I borne witness to the offensive/defensive ineptitudes that have abounded over the last week, something valuable in my life would have unduly suffered.
Instead, my computer-based viewing experience has lead to undue amounts of internet browsing to entertain myself with lack of moving pictures. That means I have been pouring over the ZiPS Rest of the Season and CHONE Updates. Given the offensive ineptitudes we, as Astros fans, have been subjected to lately, these numbers at least inspire some hope. The function of projections systems is to take the information we have about a player and generate the most reasonably expected outcome of their future performance. The added information of less than a month's worth of data does not change the reasonable expectation we have about them. Although we probably do not agree 100% with most of the Astros' projections, at least looking at the numbers we have something to hope for in the coming weeks.
Below is a table of the Astros hitters' current OBP/SLG, their CHONE and ZiPS updates for OBP and SLG, the average of those updates (a quick and dirty way to remove pessimism/optimism), and the difference between actual and averaged projected OBP and SLG. I have bolded the instances in which an Astro has over-performed a skill set thus far. As you can see, improvements are to expected pretty much everywhere.
| Player | OBP | SLG | CHONE OBP | CHONE SLG | ZiPS OBP | ZiPS SLG | pAVG OBP | pAVG SLG | OBP-pAVG OBP | SLG-pAVG SLG |
| Towles | 0.255 | 0.349 | 0.329 | 0.403 | 0.317 | 0.376 | 0.323 | 0.390 | -0.0680 | -0.0405 |
| Quintero | 0.216 | 0.278 | 0.292 | 0.372 | 0.287 | 0.278 | 0.290 | 0.325 | -0.0735 | -0.0470 |
| Berkman | 0.325 | 0.457 | 0.381 | 0.510 | 0.389 | 0.515 | 0.385 | 0.513 | -0.0600 | -0.0555 |
| Matsui | 0.225 | 0.162 | 0.319 | 0.374 | 0.311 | 0.363 | 0.315 | 0.369 | -0.0900 | -0.2065 |
| Keppinger | 0.364 | 0.377 | 0.344 | 0.397 | 0.336 | 0.390 | 0.340 | 0.394 | 0.0240 | -0.0165 |
| Feliz | 0.262 | 0.363 | 0.301 | 0.480 | 0.292 | 0.391 | 0.297 | 0.436 | -0.0345 | -0.0725 |
| Blum | 0.333 | 0.409 | 0.306 | 0.383 | 0.315 | 0.383 | 0.311 | 0.383 | 0.0225 | 0.0260 |
| Manzella | 0.262 | 0.259 | 0.293 | 0.342 | 0.289 | 0.342 | 0.291 | 0.342 | -0.0290 | -0.0830 |
| Lee | 0.222 | 0.224 | 0.337 | 0.490 | 0.338 | 0.477 | 0.338 | 0.484 | -0.1155 | -0.2595 |
| Bourn | 0.404 | 0.377 | 0.343 | 0.367 | 0.336 | 0.355 | 0.340 | 0.361 | 0.0645 | 0.0160 |
| Pence | 0.250 | 0.318 | 0.340 | 0.478 | 0.327 | 0.463 | 0.334 | 0.471 | -0.0835 | -0.1525 |
Regardless of whether you look through the updated projections and agree or disagree, I am confident that most expect the Astros bats to improve. The imperative thing, though, is to not slip into the gambler's fallacy when thinking about the Astros early season offensive struggles. It is not wise to assume that Carlos Lee will now hit .450/.475/.800 for the next month to average out his stats. What we can rest somewhat easy knowing, though, is that at some point the Astros should move from one of the worst offenses imaginable, to the just a bad offense- like we expected from them before the season got underway. As for the defensive struggles (both in the field on the mound)...
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You guys and your stats....
no offense Stephen, but I wouldn’t give you 2 bits for all that stuff. If you guys want a projection, I’ve got one for you. Our team is going to continue struggling unless they ALL get together and have a TEAM meeting….kick out the coaches…..just the players…and look themselves in the eye and tell each other “WE’RE BETTER THAN THIS!!!!” From this point forward, ALL of us are going to give 110% and we’re going to turn this thing around. We’re going to play our hearts out, and we’re going to EXPECT TO WIN!!!….The bottom line is….this team has got the talent…physically….all they need to do is to get it right in that 6" between their ears. And guys (just in case anybody actually reads this stuff)….we want you to know that we’re all behind you guys and we know that you can do this thing……GO STROS!!!!!
I don't want to overly discount the mental/chemistry/etc. aspect of baseball
But I am pretty sure that all of that is likely taking place in some form or fashion. So I don’t think the issue lies there the way you’re portraying it.
What we’ve seen from the offense so far doesn’t seem reasonable given what we know about their true talent levels. Regardless of the “rah, rah, rah”/Backstreet Boys playing locker room antics, the offense should claw it’s way out of the dismal cycle. The point of the stats is to remind us that while the Astros have terribly under-performed, but there’s no reason to expect a compensatory over-performance given what we know.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on May 3, 2010 11:41 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
team meetings and giving 110% only works in the movies
by Timothy De Block on May 3, 2010 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, you guys are right....
Silly me for trying to say something encouraging…..you’re right….what we need to do is to scientifically break down the atomic and molecular structure of every pitch and every swing to determine the radius and diametric combination of the angles and pressure of wind resistence vs the movement devided by the energy source times the number of ions that the sequence demands. I think you see my point?
by titansfan4ever on May 3, 2010 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions
It helps explain why a person may be struggling, and helps make the point that better times are ahead for this player or that player. Carlos Lee for example has a batting average of .236 for balls put into play, the normal or standard for this stat is .280-.290. This stat takes into account just when Carlos Lee makes contact and puts a baseball in fair territory. Lee’s career mark for batting average on balls in play is .290.
What we can conclude from this is that Carlos Lee has been unlucky putting balls in play, and that as more balls start falling in, his batting average on balls in play will go up as will his production. You’ve probably already heard Lee and others players allude to this when they say “I’m making solid contact it’s just at people”.
by Timothy De Block on May 3, 2010 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions
While I'm not sure why'd we'd break down a pitch to it's molecular level
Because it’d just be the composition of a baseball, I don’t see your point generally.
Isn’t providing evidence that things are going to get better in fact encouraging? So we’re on the same page—generally—just separated by the need for empiricism and belief in the power of subjective influences. Again, I don’t think that Mills/players lighting fires under their respective asses would be a bad thing; just something that is probably already taking place and therefore not the solution—likely.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on May 3, 2010 3:48 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
My original point was….that whatever they’re doing now….is NOT working….and there is NO amount of data that you can give me that is going to convince me that a change for the better is inevitable. With that being said, it’s hard to imagine they could get any worse. Now, don’t get me wrong…it’s really kind of cool how ya’ll come up with all this stuff…I would say very technologically advanced. But it’s been my experience, that it’s important to keep your team motivated…and I hope you’re right, I hope they ARE already doing this in some form or fashion. So…my comment was NOT a knock on you….just thought maybe a pep talk was in order…maybe it was more for me than anyone else. It’s been very painful watching the team that I love getting spanked day in and day out. So…if crunching numbers helps ya’ll through this painful time….then go for it…far be it for me to make light of it.
by titansfan4ever on May 3, 2010 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Before Sunday’s game, Mills said he had a meeting with the team to discuss some issues regarding their current play. He said that he wouldn’t go into what he talked about. I don’t know if the Astros have had a players’ only meeting or not. I’m not sure how much good they do. During the previous 8 of 10 wins streak, Pence said that seemed to start out with a team dinner in which various players spoke. He thought it brought the team closer together.
The Sunday meeting didn't help against the Braves
Astros were terrible.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on May 3, 2010 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions
JB
Well, that’s the plain truth. Time for a gut check & a reminder that nine innings
of baseball is to be enjoyed not endured. We’ll rebound.
My question for the CB is about Jason Bourgeois. The organization seems to have given up
on him at 2B? At Spring Training there was minor chatter. Barring an injury to Bourn
he’ll never crack the lineup as an outfielder but with the liability of Kaz it seems like an opening. A gamble but why not?
It would be interesting to see him brought up and tried at second base, except that would just mean suffering through even more of Jeff Keppinger at shortstop.
It’s been three years since Bourgeois has played any 2d base. As far as I can tell, the Express aren’t giving him any time at 2d base, either. Given the time lapse, you would think he would have to get a lot of playing time at 2d base with the Express to be a viable call up at that position. It’s possible that he is similar to Tim Raines, Jr., who played some 2d base in the minors before he was relegated to the outfield, presumably because his defensive skills weren’t up to playing the infield. Given the lack of second base depth in the organization, I would think that Bourgeois would get playing time at 2d base if he could play the position adequately.
It’s too bad that Bourgeois can’t be called up to replace Sullivan. But since Sullivan is the only LH bat on the bench, I don’t see it happening. Since Kata has had some offensive highlights in recent games, I momentarily thought that perhaps the Astros could replace Sullivan. However, after I looked, Kata’s overall offensive stats at RR aren’t great (.640 OPS), and though he is a switch hitter, it appears his best platoon side so far this year is as a RHB.
JB
We’re finding that Manzella is not truly Everett-esque but we still need
to let him take his bruises so that he can grow and prove himself as a player.
So I’d keep Keppinger in his unshakably, Mark Loretta “Super-Utility” role.
Bourgeois hitting behind Bourn has great upside. The gamble of him
as an infielder may weigh even for some triples & stolen bases. Speed is always
valuable when the wheels are off the cart.
Just my two cents, worth one cent in most blog joints.
GO STROS.
I'm a contrarian I guess
I say stick Matsui back at second and bat him second. If Astros call anyone up , make it Maysonet.
Whatever, It ’s time for Keppinger to become super-utility guy and not a regular starter.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on May 3, 2010 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Cincinnati
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Houston
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Milwaukee
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Pittsburgh
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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St. Louis
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 12:05 AM CST)
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