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Is Ed Wade inept with free agency?

Does Roy have that inquisitive look on his face because he can't figure out what Wade's M.O. is either?

Nearly three months ago, I wrote my coup de interent nerd defense of Ed Wade. Reading through it with the hindsight of the the Astros' 2010 that has played out, I feel only a mild sense of chagrin. What I am struck by, though, is that every piece of Wade criticism, in his Astros tenure, is related to signings—not trades.

I suppose this is good news, given that Ed Wade has just been handed the task of his career in Roy Oswalt, but I want to explore this issue more than just superficially. I readily admit that I have no definitive answer to this question, but I have had an overwhelming urge to seek something akin to the truth since I got a plane to Vegas last week. The desire started with a thought exercise like this:

Twenty years from now if someone google'd Ed Wade's free agent signings they would have to assume the answer to this post's title is yes. Brian Moehler, Geoff Blum, Pedro Feliz, Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz, Oscar Villareal (acquired by a trade, but them signed to an extension), Shawn Chacon, Ivan Rodriguez, Brandon Lyon Brett Myers. None signed to exorbitant contracts, but only one, maybe two, signing(s) listed could be called good, and the vast majority not even worthwhile.

At this point, our future googler has to wonder, "how is it possible that a GM goes on this spree in three years and keeps a job?" 

Star-divide

If, in 2030, our intrepid googler digs further to see just what Ed Wade might possibly have brought to the table, they would come across his trade history (thought: will Google exist in twenty years?). Because standing in stark juxtaposition of his free agent signings are his trades acquisitions of Bourn, Tejada, Valverde, Hawkins, Wolf, Fulchino, Keppinger, and Lindstrom. Few of these trades could be called exceptional, but none of them could be called bad.

It is as if the man has a doppelganger. Or at least I wish it were that simple.

The more I mulled over the contrast in Wade's strengths and weaknesses, the more confused and agitated I became. Wade is not just bad at signing free agents, I have also disagreed with the majority of the decisions he has rendered regrading arbitration. It is almost as if the man has allergy to market-based analysis with a y-axis in dollars. Make the man peg a dollar valuation on something and he can't. Tell him to make a paper clip into a duplex, though, and he might just do it.

I spent the entire plane ride to Vegas (which involved stops in Dallas and San Antonio first) jotting out ideas on my Blackberry. My edited for comprehension list is as follows:

  • Does Drayton McLane have a greater influence in the apportioning of dollars through contracts than through trades? i.e. Has McLane given Wade stricter mandates such as "you have $5 million to spend on a player that better be a veteran-y guy," whereas trades have been an opportunity for Wade to sell McLane on buying something.
  • Are there different inefficiencies to exploit in the two different marketplaces? Something akin to Matt Swartz's idea that teams that have had players through their maturation to free agency know when to hold'em and when to fold'em? It has become widely known that Wade prizes the insights he gets from scouts. Perhaps the teams of free agents have had an opportunity to compile a comprehensive enough body of knowledge that limits Wade's avenue of attack that is not as closed off in the trade market?
  • Is it that we just have unrepresentative sample sizes? Or just meaningless ones? It is not like Wade has ever done anything truly blockbuster as an Astro (Tejada coming the closest, but probably more so because of the report that starts with an 'M' and ends with in 'itchell'). Trying to pick guys off of the scrap heap in free agency is tough (admittedly Wade is not doing a very good job of this), but perhaps it is easier to find written-off guys through trades who can then be polished into serviceable players.
Thought number three seems imperative to think through at this juncture given that I spent the entire return trip from Vegas contemplating the bounty Ed Wade will receive from trading Roy Oswalt. However, so does thoughts one and two due to the fact that during his contract with the Astros, Ed Wade will have a lot of money to spend.

I cannot shake the lingering notion that perhaps thought number one may be the driving factor. The decisions that are derided from all corners of the interweb, the ones that we don't necessarily jump for joy at, are the ones in which I believe Drayton McLane would have the most say. This seems especially plausible to me when we pair Wade's missteps regarding arbitration decisions with his checkered free agent signings.

This feels too simplistic, and perhaps unfair, but I have nothing better to offer. Thus, the questions that I am now forced to beg of you are:
  1. Am I heaping too much blame on Drayton McLane?
  2. Is it possible to even have a system in place that would so strongly peg the trade market, yet miss the mark on the free agent front?
  3. Is it possible that Wade just misses the mark on the valuation of talent available through free agency (i.e. he cannot read the market to infer market price)?
  4. What avenues haven't I explored?
  5. Am I just wrong with the entire premise, yet have deluded myself into believing there is a true differentiation in Wade's skill-set to be analyzed?

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Call me simple...

But I’m with you. I believe Drayton is at the root of this. He needs to sell the team. He is not making decisions that an owner makes that “wants to be a champion.”

I did some non-savvy internet research… looking for big free agent signings that Wade made during his tenure with the Phillies. Here are the ones I could find.

Nov 2002 – David Bell, 4 years, $17 million.
Dec 2002 – Jim Thome – 6 years, $85 million. Thome was 32 years old when he signed
12/9/03 – Signed RHP Tim Worrell to a multiyear contract.
12/8/03 – Signed catcher Todd Pratt to a one-year contract.

He also kept Placido Polanco and Kevin Millwood on the club through arbitration for a few years.

Another notable addition was Shane Victorino in the Rule 5 Draft.

Alright, now I have to get some work done.

by Irish Pete on May 26, 2010 9:12 AM CDT reply actions  

First, I’ll say that I don’t think trading is Wade’s best skill-set. (As I have said before, a good idea might be to get Tal Smith to retire, Wade to move in as team president, and hire a GM who is better at trading, like Kevin Towers.) However, I think that your third bullet point is the most likely explanation.

I would also point out that I can’t criticize all of Wade’s free agent signings as Astros GM. In most cases, Wade is forced into a corner with a meager discretionary budget and too many holes to fill. One could argue that his trade for Tejada put him in that position, I suppose. Since I beat the drum at TCB for signing Chacon (and was surprised when they actually did it as spring training began), I would be a hypocrite to criticize it. Going into 2008, all of us knew that the Astros were desperate for a starting pitcher, but Wade had only about $1 – $2 million to spend. Chacon was the best risk at the time (particularly since we didn’t know if Woody Williams would be capable of returning as a competent pitcher). And it requires hindsight to say that one could have predicted the combustible mix of Chacon and Cooper. In case anyone forgot, Chacon was a bright spot in the rotation for 2 months before Chacon and Cooper had their problems. (When he was pitching well for the Astros, I recall vivaelbirdos saying that Chacon was the type of low cost rotation signing that the Cardinals should follow.) Unlike most people, I don’t mind the Lyon signing; I think the signing was for too many years, but otherwise I think it is a good signing, and showed some foresight after Arias went down with injury, Gervacio was injured, and Fulchino returned to his Royals’ form. I don’t think the Russ Ortiz and Hampton signings were bad, given the money involved. They both had obvious risks, but it’s hard to criticize Ortiz as a NRI or Hamton at $2.5 million. Dave Cameron at fangraphs even liked the Hampton signing as a good low cost risk. I think the mistake was expecting Hampton to be more than a No. 5 pitcher.
 
Faced with too little budgetary working room, Wade’s approach is to rely heavily on looking for “good clubhouse guys” and veterans with character. For all I know this may be an overreaction to the way that the Chacon signing turned out. He also relies too much on perceived clutch hitting skills. I don’t agree with the weight he puts on those things, but I think it is the way he responds to pulling guys off the scrap heap when the available dollars are too small.

Drayton’s influence is an unknown. I think it’s fair to assume that McLane was pushing the Tejada trade, based on the fact that McLane had been chasing him for several years, like Captain Ahab. Maybe Wade has to go to McLane to approve each incremental dollar for free agent trades, and he can only get approval if it is a veteran whom McLane has heard of or whom McLane perceives to be a “champion.”

Back to your point about a potential trade for Oswalt…. As I realized in making a comment on another TCB thread, you may not like what you see when you look at the most comparable trade that Wade has made (Schilling to the D-Backs). Schillings is comparable as an all star pitcher traded because of his cost and his stated desire to go to a contender. Wade did not receive one minor league prospect in return. He received two well regarded young major league players (Padilla and Travis Lee) with 2 or 3 years ML experience. He also picked up a 27 year old pitcher with minimal ML experience plus a 10 year veteran pitcher (Dahl). Four for one looked good, but Wade obviously leaned heavily on acquiring guys with major league experience by which to judge them. As a result, he got some competence (Dahl and Padilla), some bust (Lee), and little in the way of high ceiling. I’m not sure that is comforting in the Oswalt trade scenario.

by clack on May 26, 2010 9:27 AM CDT reply actions  

While I agree about your previous season assessments where Wade had less money to work with, this past off season was not the case when Tejada, and Valverde came off the books. A lot of the criticism is because he moved too early on Feliz and missed out on players like Kelly Johnson and Felipe Lopez who were discussed quite a bit this off season before the season began. While Lyon isn’t a bad signing the price the Astros paid for him was, and could of been spent in other areas of the team.

I think Wades best area is the waiver wire and rule 5 draft, then trading, and I think his weakest is the free agent market. In the first few years of his tenure he’s already had to release Kaz who was signed to a multi-year contract, and Kaz was signed in a year in which he had little money to work with.

While I may disagree with you on his trading ability at the same time I echo your sentiments that I am a bit worried about what Wade will ask for in return for Oswalt. Combine that with the money he’ll have available to sign free agents in the off season and the Astros could very well take some huge steps backwards. My hope is the same as yours that he’ll be “promoted” and someone else comes in for trades/signings or in the next few years after the farm system is strengthened he’ll be replaced with another GM. Of course a scenario in which Wade is replaced means the Astros will have had some rough years in between now and then.

by Timothy De Block on May 26, 2010 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions  

The Astros were said to be interested in Johnson. For all I know, the Astros tried to acquire him and he decided to select Arizona for personal reasons or a belief that he would play more. I would have preferred a Lopez signing, but 29 other GMs failed to sign him until he fell in the bargain bin just before spring training; Wade wasn’t alone in considering the character issues, if that is what caused Lopez’s inability to find an employer. Wade does move too early on most of his needs. It’s almost like a personality trait. Based on the win valuation to begin the off-season, Lyon was signed for market value. By moving early, Wade failed to catch a falling market. However, the overpayment was trivial in comparison to the annual budget, and the bullpen would be in shambles if he had tried to rely on Arias, Gervacio, and Fulchino for the late innings.

by clack on May 26, 2010 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

But the bullpen is also 20/20 hindsight, at the time the Astros looked to have a very strong bullpen before Lyon. Arias was coming of an injury, Gervacio and Fulchino were healthy and coming off very strong performances. With out Lyon it’s true this bullpen would be in shambles but I don’t think Wade necessarily had the foresight to see that happening.

Character issues aside both Johnson and Lopez are providing more value for their teams than Feliz and are paid about a million less than Feliz combined.

by Timothy De Block on May 26, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

Orlando Hudson

Also comes to mind, he was signed very late in the off season as well and isn’t considered to have character issues.

by Timothy De Block on May 26, 2010 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

That’s more a function of wanting to decide too early. Hudson was asking for too much money early in the season. (Hudson was so upset about his inability to get a big contract that he said racism was involved.) As I said, the Astros apparently pursued Kelly Johnson to some degree. He gets to decide where he wants to play. I thought Johnson was a high risk candidate, but I would have been OK taking the risk. I felt Lopez was a better risk, given his track record. I’m not saying I agree with Wade’s choices. However, I try not to blame him when he doesn’t pick the same free agents I preferred.

by clack on May 26, 2010 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

Just one more point, that most of us can agree on, I think. My main criticism of Ed Wade’s FA signings is a lack of creativity and willingness to stray from the pack. A lot of his flaws (get your signings out of the way early, look for veterans and clubhouse guys) seem to be aimed at wanting “safe” signings. Maybe, answering Stephen’s question below, this is one difference between the trades and FA signings. Perhaps Wade feels he can be a little bit more imaginative (as in projecting players) in his trades, but when he is paying out cash for contracts he takes what he perceives as a safer route.

by clack on May 26, 2010 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

I see your points

But I’m still curious as to why Wade over-values these skill-sets in free agency, but not in trades.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on May 26, 2010 10:15 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

It’s entirely possible that Wade is a better talent-evaluator than he his a market-reader. Remember his background. He started out as a sports writer, which means he knows a good player when he sees one. What that doesn’t mean is he can predict injuries well, he can see market forces playing in free agency or that he can project a player past where they are right now. That may be a reason why he values current big-leaguers in trades; he’s got a better handle on their skill sets.

by David Coleman on May 26, 2010 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think you are right with him being good with talent-evaluation. Lets not forget what could possibly be his best trade. Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and Mike Costanzo. Costanzo was immediatly flipped for the Miggy trade. But, Lidge had one great year and fallen off the cliff the way he did with us. Bourn had one rough season and is now on his 2nd great season. He can evaluate talent.

by Subber10 on May 26, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

And we still end up at my (self-imposed) paradox

How does the breakdown occur? If he can evaluate talent, how does he not have a better conception of how to price it? Or conceive of how others will over time.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on May 26, 2010 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Still dont understand the Feliz signing. Tejada only got 1.5 million more from Baltimore what did he want from the Astros? He is a much better hitter and fielder than Feliz. He would have had alot more value at the trade deadline and he was the most productive hitter last year how much better would we be with his bat in the line up this year?

by Nado2036 on May 26, 2010 11:46 AM CDT reply actions  

At the time of the signing, Tejada’s asking price was much higher and would have cost a whole lot more in arbitration. Tejada’s defense was also a question at 3B, he’d never played there, while we assumed it would be good, we weren’t sure. Pedro Feliz is also a very good defensive 3rd baseman, although he hasn’t been this year. But, you are right this does go back to the problem that Wade is poor at evaluating market value and pulls the trigger way too early.

by Subber10 on May 26, 2010 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

As I recall, Wade had a meeting with Tejada’s agent in the week before the Feliz signing. It’s probably fair to say that Tejada’s agent wasn’t happy that the Astros didn’t offer arbitration. Apparently Tejada’s agent asked for a lot of money and a multi-year contract. After the meeting, Wade said the Astros couldn’t afford Tejada and said he had to move on to other players. I point this out just to confirm what you are saying.

by clack on May 26, 2010 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think the astros need to start sending some guys up and down personally. See if they can get someone that wants to step up and swing the bat or Mills needs to start playing for one run every inning to get some sort of spark.

by Nado2036 on May 26, 2010 12:01 PM CDT reply actions  

I am all about sticking with guys to give them a chance to get rolling. I was always a slow starter for the first couple of games but some of these guys have a 100 AB’s and are still not showing signs of improvement. Just disgusted when I watch the quality of at bats of most of the guys.

by Nado2036 on May 26, 2010 12:04 PM CDT reply actions  

it’s frustrating.

by clack on May 26, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Are these guys reading the scouting reports are they watching film? I mean they wont even choke and poke. Did anyone see the two games against the Giants in the last inning? The third game bases loaded 3-2 count 1out and Hunter swung so hard a cement mixer slider that he almost fell down. The ball didnt even move a bit it just came straight in and just spun. Who is the hitting coach?

by Nado2036 on May 26, 2010 12:39 PM CDT reply actions  

Sean Berry, a third baseman for the Astros in the late 90’s, is the hitting coach.

by clack on May 26, 2010 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

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