Top 10 Dumbest (Yet Plausible) Astros Moves
by David Coleman on May 24, 2010 6:00 AM CDT
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A sick wife and a 2 1/2 hour LOST series finale Sunday night left me precious little time to write this morning's post. But, I was really interested in an idea that was brought up in the live chat Sunday. What OremLK mentioned was that putting Brian Moehler in the rotation and bumping out Bud Norris would top his list of dumbest, yet plausible, moves the Astros make this season. I liked the idea so much, I thought I'd come up with my own Top 10 list of such moves. Feel free to add your own in the comments. I'm sure I won't catch them all.
1) Putting Brian Moehler back into the rotation; bumping Bud Norris to the bullpen - Lots of talk about this already. Basically, there is a fairly large contingent of Astros fans who are clamoring for Norris to be demoted/bullpenized while Moehler is bumped into the starting rotation. These same people seem to think it is 2008 and/or the Astros could be contenders. While it makes sense to possibly lower Norris and Paulino's innings with a judicious spot start here or there, no one who saw Moehler throw batting practice to Tampa Bay can think he's ready to go back into the rotation. He's injury insurance, no more. If the Astros are going to be bad, they at least need to cultivate the few young players still on the roster.
2) Bringing up Jordan Lyles this season - There are a few reasons why this would be a phenomenally bad idea. One? He's only 19 years old! As I've said before, the last NL pitcher to debut at that age was Doc Gooden. Felix Hernandez did it for the Mariners, but they were very strict on his innings count and didn't let him throw a slider. Thus, he's had a relatively healthy pro run. Lyles should not be throwing important innings at the big league level this season. I'm almost of the mind that he shouldn't throw them next season either, but I'd settle for none in 2010. Did I mention his arbitration clock would start ticking early? Ask the Giants how that worked out with Lincecum...
3) Playing Jeff Keppinger every day at shortstop - Pass. We all know why this is a bad idea. This next one is a bit more complicated.
4) Call up Chris Johnson, cut Pedro Feliz, yet start Geoff Blum at third - Basically, this does two-thirds of what a lot of you have been asking. Feliz would get cut (highly unlikely), Johnson would be called up to the big leagues (more likely the way he's hitting in Round Rock), but Geoff Blum would get the majority of the starts at the hot corner. He's already proven to be a Brad Mills favorite, so I could see it working from that angle. His defense has also looked passable at short, so he'd probably play decently at third. His bat, however, would not hold up under extended playing time. As in, he'd crater faster than Feliz has. Plus, they'd be burying another young player and not giving him a chance to succeed. I'm angry just considering this scenario.
5) Trade Roy Oswalt for veteran player(s) - Basically, the deal Wade works out for Oswalt brings back one or two "name" veterans with big contracts (say, Scott Rolen or Adam Dunn), but doesn't bring in any prospects. This is a bad idea simply because the current Astros roster is not built to win now. Wade may feel some pressure to upgrade the big league club immediately, but this is not the answer.
6) Pick up Lance Berkman's 2011 option - This one is kinda sneaky. On the one hand, I want Berkman back. Drayton wants him back. Wade probably wants his bat back, but at that cost, it doesn't make sense. The only two options I see are that the Astros decline the option and Berkman becomes a free agent or they work out a multi-year extension that brings his price tag down to around 8 million a year. if he won't do it, I think Wade deals him.
7) Demote J.R. Towles, give Kevin Cash the starting catcher's job (h/t to timmy) - Yeah, it already happened. It was a good call by Timmy, though, so I had to throw him some credit. At least Cash is a good defensive catcher...
8) Stand pat at the July trading deadline - The Astros have to move people this July. I don't care who it is. Brett Myers, Pedro Feliz, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, heck, I wouldn't be against the idea of moving Hunter Pence or Michael Bourn if they could get a nice package. Unless something drastic happens in the next four weeks, this team is not contending in 2010. They're probably not contending in 2011 either. With a depleted farm system, the only way they fill holes early is by getting something in return for one or all of these guys.
9) Firing Brad Mills after the season - It's already been mentioned by one national media member. I'm sure there will be more talk as the season moves on, if the Astros are still playing this bad. I don't need to tell you all, though, that Brad Mills doesn't hit the ball and he doesn't start games on the mound. The Astros are this bad all by themselves and no manager, not even Connie Mack or John McGraw could make a difference. I think Mills has the potential to be a playoff manager. He just might have to wait out some bad baseball to get there.
10) Hold a goofy 7th inning race between Taco Bell hot sauce packets - Oh, wait...
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Let Lance and Roy go
That money needs to go towards extending Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence (maybe Lindstrom, too…?). We need to keep some young “veterans” to guide the younger guys coming up in 2011-12.
I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing back a major league player plus a prospect(s) in return for Oswalt. This may be a necessity if the Astros have to reduce the monetary impact on the acquiring team by taking on a contract. I’m not saying that it should be someone at Rolen’s age. But it could work with the right player. Also, I do think McLane probably has to show the fans that the Astros received someone who can provide an immediate positive impact on the major league team. Ideally, the major league player is not over 30.
That I understand. If the Astros just got veterans back in the trade, that’s what I have a problem with.
by David Coleman on May 24, 2010 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions
As an aside, I wonder how an Oswalt trade would be regarded by Astros’ fans in years to come. Following BBTF, I have learned that the most hated trade in Mets’ history occurred when the Mets traded a 32 year old Tom Seaver to the Reds (receiving Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson, Dan Norman, and Pat Zachary). Seaver then proceeded to have five excellent years with the Reds. Interestingly the Mets brought Seaver back for one year when he was 38 years old, but he only had a mediocre season. On the surface, the Mets’ return on the trade seemed pretty reasonable before you apply hindsight. All of the players were 24 or 25 year old players, and some had major league experience. Zachary started for several years, but he was mediocre for the Mets. The others were not big contributors to the Mets. So, when Mets’ fans look at those players’ careers versus the contribution of Seaver to the Reds (two time all star and twice in the top 3 voting for Cy Young), they consider the trade to be the franchise’s worst moment (sort of like the Astros letting Nolan Ryan go).
Yes, I would be totally fine with getting back a major league player or players (one trade I saw suggested on the Dodgers blog was John Ely, James Loney, and a prospect for Oswalt), but I’d only want to trade for young guys under team control. David was talking about trading for older veterans on big contracts being a stupid idea, and that I agree with entirely, unless they come packaged with an amazing set of prospects.
I’d assume Berkman would have to be moved for Loney to be in the deal?
by Timothy De Block on May 24, 2010 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, on second thought, maybe it could be to the Dodgers, but I imagine the Astros would have to pick up the tab on Berkman for that to happen.
I’m not sold on Loney, but since he’s a local guy, I could see why the Astros would want him in return. The guy I’d target in any Dodgers trade is Dee Gordon. He’s young, can play shortstop, but could move off position if Jio Mier develops.
by David Coleman on May 24, 2010 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions
JJO and Cecil Cooper seemed to be the main people who were so high on Loney. Cooper was ready to put him in the Hall of Fame. But I’m not sure how the baseball people on the Astros feel about Loney. Of course, Drayton could be seduced by the “local kid” label and might insist upon it. (And Wade did trade Schilling for Travis Lee, who profiled as a similar young first baseman to Loney at that time). And considering that Loney was highly regarded at one time, it’s always possible he can still have a break out in his career.
In some of the BBTF threads where the Oswalt trade has come up, some of the saber types there portray a Loney trade as a nice “trap” for the Astros, since they believe he is a well below average 1st baseman. I’m not sure how I feel about it, myself. Obviously, Berkman would have to be traded somewhere for the Oswalt for Loney+prospects trade to make sense.
The big thing to keep in mind about Loney is that his numbers are getting ruined by Dodger Stadium. He has an .882 OPS on the road, compared to just .721 at home. That is a huge split.
He is also an above average defensive first baseman, for whatever that’s worth.
yes, he is definitely an above average first baseman. I suppose the question is whether he will be more like Mientkewitz or Olerud over his career, two plus defensive first baseman with the line drive hitting profile. If Olerud, that’s quite good. If Minky, moderately useful but below average.
..just to be clear, I’m not necessarily against Loney in a trade. I just am undecided on what he will be. It probably depends on whom else you get in the trade.
Funny coincidence...
since I just read Chip’s fanblog at the chron.com. He suggests that the Astros might get back in contention by moving Keppinger to shortstop, using Wandy or Pence to acquire a major league second baseman, putting Moehler in the rotation, and keeping Oswalt. How do those moves line up with your list?
That post should earn an “Honorable Mention” place on this list.
by David Coleman on May 24, 2010 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions
I know, that was pretty glib. More seriously, anyone who views this team as a couple of minor holes away from contending is not seeing things clearly. Certainly, making the case that Kepp could be the everyday shortstop confirms that, but we’ve all talked about the many reasons this team has struggled. They’re not a “major-league second baseman” away from contending. Especially if they trade away Wandy and/or Pence. That kind of thinking leads down a road where the Astros don’t contend seriously until 2017.
Yes, they’d have a good shot at getting to .500, but should that really be the goal? What’s the difference between 70 and 80 wins?
by David Coleman on May 24, 2010 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions
I can’t defend the main gist of his thinking in that scenario. And I did put it out there with some sarcasm, because he suggested so many things which are close to the ideas you listed as “dumb.” However, now that I think about it, there may be a kernel of merit to the idea of trading Wandy instead of Roy. But, only if all of those writers at Hardball Times, ESPN, and Fangraphs are correct that Oswalt’s salary precludes him from bringing back good prospects. Based on the assumptions behind their analyses, Wandy would have greater trade value than Oswalt. (I am skeptical of those assumptions, by the way.)
I’m with you. Like I said, I don’t think anyone should be off-limits in trade negotiations. I’d hate to trade Bourn or Pence, just because they’re young enough to be around when the team is good again, but if they bring back a nice prospect haul, Wade would have to think about it.
The problem with Bailey’s point is he wants to trade youth for veterans. That gets a big, “No-can-do’sville, baby doll” from me.
(And I know your original comment was made tongue-in-cheek. I hadn’t really intended to respond like I did, but as I read his post, I just got frustrated.)
by David Coleman on May 24, 2010 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
There’s a reason I don’t bother reading his blog.
by Timothy De Block on May 24, 2010 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Lyles
I’m glad the idea of moving Lyles up was written as a top dumb idea. I’m tired of hearing that as a great idea or that “he’s performing so well lets see what the kids got!”
Well, I was thinking about the Feliz signing and how some of the options for filling the 3rd baseman spot included former 2nd baseman like Felipe Lopez. Wouldn’t he have been a much better option now, besides that he’s hitting better. They could have been moved back 2nd after the Matsui release and brought CJ to play the hot corner instead of bringing up Navarro. And in the event that CJ struggles, the former 2nd baseman spells him at 3rd and you start Kepp at 2nd…Oh how much smarter everyone is in hindsight.
no question, Subber10.
I also agree with Ol’ Pete’s comment that there was more to his story. He had the attitude tag on him. I know some of the D-Backs’ fans questioned his attitude. I also think Felipe felt like he had such a good year that he demanded a high salary. Felipe fired his agent before he signed with the Cards.
I’m not necessarily saying I wanted Felipe exclusively, that was just the first name that came to mind, if I remember right, there were one or two others that were potential FA that were 2nd baseman that were brought up to fill the hole.
Draft
There’s really no other place to post this but, Andy Seiler posted his 7th Mock Draft. Nothing new with the #8 overall pick, Zack Cox is still the pick. I hold my breath as i scroll down to that pick everytime because Cox is moving up draft boards lately and may go before the Astros get a chance to take him. And rumors are pointing to the Astros drafting him if he’s available, but our Stros are one of the hardest teams to get a read on when it comes to draft picks. But, I was souring on him but i’m getting higher on him again as his swing has improved drastically this year.
The interesting part of this mock was the #19 pick. I highly doubt this happens but if this were to play out this way, it would be pretty awesome as both players are #1 and #2 on my own board for players who have a chance to be available at #8. Karsten Whitson! He’s been fading late in this season and is consequently falling. But, the kid has loads of talent and may be the second best prep pitcher. I love his projectability and I think if Heck has the opportunity to take him…he does, no matter the cost. Since he may be wanting over slot money.
Thinking about this draft and the Astros needs, couldn’t you see them taking Colon at No. 8? Seiler hinted Houston is looking for someone more athletic, Heck isn’t afraid to “overdraft” a guy, and Colon profiles as a pretty good second baseman.
by David Coleman on May 24, 2010 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree that he is likely an option. He does have the defensive range to play there, as he even as a chance to stick as SS in the pros, but he’ll likely be an average defender at best at SS. But in regards to being athletic and playing 2nd, Cox has spent time at 2nd this year and has shown he has the athletic ability to possibly play there in the pros. I was thinking that Cox is a better option because his bat projects to have much more impact. Above avg contact skills and projects to be above avg power as well. Defensively, he projects to above average as well at 3rd.
Christian Colon Scouting Report I’m not as high on his defense as they are, although he does have great athleticism, but I just don’t think he’ll be above average defensively at short, and i think he provides more value at 2nd since he would have above average defense there and his bat plays well there.
I've fallen off on Cox
I don’t think he’s ever going to hit for power or be more than an average defender at third base. That’s just not a high enough ceiling to be worth such an early pick, in my opinion. The only way I would want him would be if the front office was convinced he could stick at second base. I like Colon better, but he still wouldn’t be one of my top choices. I’d probably prefer Josh Sale, even though he’s a HS outfielder, because he has by far my favorite bat in the class. He could be a star.
If Pomeranz or Machado somehow fall, I’d take them in a heartbeat, but I doubt they’ll be there at #8. Pomeranz especially would be very interesting, because he’s so advanced and has such a high floor. He could probably hold his own in the majors right now.
What about Deck McGuire?
I know he’s fallen a bit this season, but he might make some sense if he last till 8th. Also think Ranaudo might be a nice gamble in the supplemental round.
by David Coleman on May 24, 2010 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I’d be ok with McGuire, he has great size and I like him, but I’m not a fan of Ranaudo. He’s good but with the elbow problems he’s had, i’m not fond of him. He’s got three pitches, low 90s fastball, a good curve, and a developing changeup. But, with the elbow problems i have doubts of him developing a slider. He could add a cutter or sinker or splitter. But, those aren’t big pitches that he could add. He’s not a power guy and the changeup isn’t a guarrantee to develop. I fear he is a future reliever with just two solid pitches and an ok change-up. Yes Bud has that too, but Bud has a nasty slider and a mid-90s FB.
I like McGuire, but honestly, I’d take Workman over most of them. I have a hard time seeing the Astros taking any college pitcher in the first round unless it’s a really special guy (like Pomeranz), though.
I’m the other way on Colon. I think he will end up hitting like a SS but in order to do so, he’ll add too much muscle and lose too much quickness to handle SS defensively and end up at 2nd but won’t hit enough to validate a major league roster spot. I see him as an eventual Utility guy with the abiltiy to play multiple positions but not hit enough for a spot other than SS where he’ll well below avg defensively.
Neither would be my top choice, honestly. I think they both profile pretty similarly in terms of value, but Colon has better makeup and a better chance to stick in the middle infield, while Cox has a slightly better bat (but not as much better as you might think). I can think of about five hitters off the top of my head who I think are going to be better, though unfortunately most of them are outfielders.
I think you are underestimating how far his swing has come. He’s lost some power in his swing but the rate in which he strikes out and the type of contact has improved greatly. And thats under college coaching. He still has a lot of power in his frame and core that with some extra professional coaching, your looking at a lot more pop. What little power Colon does have is from a little extra whipping of the head of the bat through the zone, which is exaggerated with the aluminum bats. I dont’ think he’ll have any power at all with a wooden bat. Cox’s swing will still result in power with wooden bats. I agree there are guys I’d rather have over Cox, but I just don’t think they’ll be available at #8.
The thing I always hear about Cox is that he’s going to have to choose between power and contact, and the adjustments he’s made this year have just shifted him more toward the contact end of the spectrum, and that’s what I see in his swing. Doubles power, but not better than average. His plate discipline and fielding would have to be plus for that kind of bat to play at third base, and I’ve seen some guys who don’t even think he has the glove to stick.
Maybe you’re right and pro scouts can help him improve his swing, but I’m not as optimistic with a 21 year old college kid as I would be with a prep bat.
His swing is more of a line drive swing for better contact right now, you are right. I’m not gonna argue that. But, with the guys quicks hands and the adjustments he’s already been able to make in one year, its not a stretch to think that he can add a little loft in his swing to allow for more HRs with his excellent pitch recognition. I don’t think the adjustments to add a little loft would be that drastic. And he’s shown the ability to do that.
Well, if we do take him, then I will just have to hope you are right. Here is the scouting report and video which really tanked his stock in my eyes (combined with some other videos I watched of him).
You have to take in account the differences in his swing from a year ago to now. It is a completely new swing and the there is a difference between night and day. Its literally less than a year old, you can’t expect for it to be polished right now. Josh Sale has been working on his swing for a couple years now so of course it is solid. He has a tremendous work ethic and for him to put up the numbers he has, witha new swing, is a testament to that. I know a very popular video of him is the one that ProjectProspect posted and its terrible and not a true testament. Plus, I don’t put much stock into a BP swing, the pitches are slow and and its designed to work on a swing and get warmed up. His hitting coach could have very well had him working on his arms of the swing right then so he wasn’t going to be using his legs very much. Yes, you have to look at how he works n the cages, but the true measure of what he can do is in a real plate performance.
I saw that, I was talking about the improvement from last year to this year, and there’s no reason to think he can’t make more improvements in a year. Plus, that report was done and posted in March, they didn’t say when the video was from. He could have taken that year in Fall Baseball and just not got around to analyzing it. My point still stands, the best way to analyze a swing is in a game against live pitching.
FoxSports’ Rosenthal with a make believe discussion between McLane and Wade regarding Oswalt trade proposals.
Steve Phillips: Nationals should trade Strasburg for Oswalt.
If you’ve read the mock Drayton conversation by Rosenthal, above, this becomes really funny.
On the BBTF thread for that article, several New Yorkers say that Steve Phillips was interviewed on WFAN radio, and said that, if he were the Astros, he would ask for Strasburg, and if he were the Nationals’ GM, he would be willing to trade Strasburg for Oswalt.
Unfortunately for the Astros, Steve Phillips is no longer a GM.
You can read through the thread and see that several BBTF regulars confirm that they heard it on the radio. Apparently the WFAN interviews are not archived until a day or two later at which time the interview can be heard. So, I suspect someone will look it up then. I tend to think it’s true based on several different posters claiming to hear it, and describing Mike Francesca’s disagreement.
Phillips' proposed Strasberg for Oswalt trade idea confirmed.
Rob Neyer says that a Strasberg for Oswalt trade might make sense—but not for the Nationals. If a team is focused only on winning in the playoffs the next two years, Oswalt is preferable to Strasberg. (Neyer makes a good point that Strasberg won’t be allowed to pitch more than 110 innings in the majors this year, which leaves him unavailable for the playoffs.) However, Neyer says the Nationals are in a team building cycle which requires them to think several years down the road.
What I would probably do is shut down Strasburg a month or two before the postseason, whether you make it in or not. Then let him pitch (on regular rest) for the playoffs if they get in. I don’t know. It makes sense in my head. I guess I’m figuring that his body will be as recovered as it’s going to get by that point. Although, pitching in the playoffs is probably a lot higher stress, but maybe it’s worth the risk to try and win a WS.
Neyer suggests that, if the Nationals are still in contention for the playoffs in August, they could take the Rays’ and Yankees’ approach (with Joba and Price), shutting Strasburg down for the final month and a half, and turning him into a late inning reliever for the playoffs. I wonder if that approach hurt Price in his next season (2009), though?
Adam Wainwright could be another example.
by Timothy De Block on May 25, 2010 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Draft
Keith put up his 1st mock today. He has us taking Josh Sale at #8 and Delino Deshields at #19. This doesn’t surprise me at all. He says the Astros are high on Cox and are considering him and J. Sale at #8. I’d be happy with either. The interesting thing, he says if both Sale and Cox are somehow gone at #8 then we might take Deshields with our 1st pick.
I like Deshields and think he’s the typical Astros pick but would feel a lot better if we took him at #33.
I’ll answer my own question after an internet search….yes, he is Delino Deshields, Jr., who is the son of former second baseman Delino Deshields, who is now a manager in the Reds’ farm system. Deshields, Jr., has been recruited for both football and baseball, but he wants to follow in his father’s footsteps in professional baseball. He says he will use a LSU baseball scholarship unless the draft bonus this year is more attractive. Deshields Jr. plays CF.
He reminds me a lot of Bourn. Many scouts apparently think he has the hands to move to second base, however, and he certainly has the range.
I love Sale at #8, but I don’t know about DeShields at 19. Maybe the Astros are looking at him for later in the draft and Law is just assuming we’re going to reach?
I agree about Deshields. If he is taken at #8, that will be the type of pick that would drive me nuts…#33, sure take him, its still a reach but at least we’re getting into picks where the drop off in where he should be taken and where he’s actually is taken isn’t that great. And from what I read, he’s pretty solid in his commitment to LSU.
I like Sale, I’m not gonna lie about that, but i’m still a Cox fan and think we need somebody like Cox over Sale.
Moving Bourn or Pence
I think would be a bad idea. They should represent the future of the Astros. Trading them away along with our vets would pretty much kill attendance. Especially Bourn/Pence, fan favorites.
by goingforthecorner on May 25, 2010 1:56 PM CDT reply actions
Agree.
No way you get fair value for Pence and Bourn should be a cornerstone we build around.
If they trade Oswalt for veterans, I will stop watching the Astros for the next 3 years.
If they trade Oswalt without pursuing trades for Berkman, Myers, and Feliz, I will be extremely disappointed. I can see not moving them if you can’t get fair value but essentially if we trade O (essentially give up on this season) then Myers and Feliz are worthless to us. Surely someone wants to rent Myers with the way he has pitched so far and his previous experience in Philly.
by Snake Diggity on May 25, 2010 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the odds are pretty high that one veteran would be in the trade package for Oswalt. (I’m assuming that you mean current major league player when he say “veteran.”) I don’t believe it would be only veterans. I think they will want somone who can immediately produce on the major league roster for a number of reasons, including public relations and maintaining the semblance of a team.
Yikes. In looking at Ed Wade’s trade of Curt Schilling, he didn’t acquire any minor leaguers. All had major league experience. The best you can say is that there were some young major leaguers who came in the trade (Padilla, Travis Lee). He also picked up a 27 year old pitcher with only a small amount of ML experience (Figuero), and a veteran pitcher (Dahl). OK, now that I look at those results for the Wade trade most similar to an Oswalt trade, do people have second thoughts about trading Oswalt?
Not really, no
With Oswalt wanting out, I can’t imagine him re-signing after 2011 if the Astros turn this into a messy breakup by not obliging his request to be traded. He will jump at the opportunity to leave, and probably sign a one year deal with a “true contender”, in his words, which means he won’t even retire as an Astro.
I maintain that we’re not going to be playoff contenders next season. So what purpose is there in keeping Oswalt? Even if Wade screws it up, it’s better than nothing. And maybe he won’t mess up.
To me, anything less than a 3 prospect deal (in which one of the prospects is an MLB top 100 type) will be an abject failure.
by Snake Diggity on May 26, 2010 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions
It would be a failure, yes, but not as much of a failure as getting nothing would be. Now, I’m not saying Oswalt has to be dealt by July 31st (though I would prefer it). If the front office can’t come up with an acceptable deal, there’s still next off-season and next year’s trade deadline.
But in my opinion, now that he’s gone public with this trade request, you pretty much have to find a way to move him. The leverage you have with other teams is the time table. There are clubs like the Dodgers, the Tigers, the Nationals, the Rangers who are going to want him now so they can win this season. Being able to say, “we don’t have to trade him” is how you drive up the price, even though everybody knows that he has to be moved by next year’s trade deadline.
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