Good Times On The Farm
by Snake Diggity on May 18, 2010 10:20 PM CDT
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PrintSome really good things happening in the 'stros minor league teams the last few days/weeks for those of you looking for a bright spot.
-Chris Johnson went yard tonight.
-Jason Castro hitting .343 with an 839 OPS his last 10 games.
-Jordan Lyles threw a complete game, 1 run, 1 walk, 5k gem.
-Koby Clemens went yard again; on pace for 40 HR 100 RBI.
-Corpus' OF showing signs of life.
-Cody Hinze hit 2 dingers tonight to keep up his MONSTER pace.
-JD Martinez continues his domination of A ball.
-David Duncan was near perfect in his first appearance of the year.
-Robert Donovan threw another good game tonight.
To be fair, it's not all good:
-Several high draft picks are struggling (Mier, Dydalewicz, Seaton)
-Wes Wright had a bad bad night tonight
-Several players who started off well have cooled significantly (DeLome, Flores, Cartwright, Austin, Meyer)
But overall, I'd say the good signs outweigh the bad. Chins up!
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Don’t forget Dallas Keuchel, last two starts, 17 IP 1 ER 15 SO, dude is tearing up in the CAL league, in Lancaster. I’m hoping he gets a mid season call up to CC.
JD needs a mid season call up to Lancaster, their offense isn’t good this year, and he’s done what he will do in Lexington. Heck he’d probably put up even higher numbers in Lancaster given he has a power swing.
JD Martinez
Houston absolutely needs to move Martinez, sooner rather than later. Martinez turns 23 in August, so he is a little long of tooth for the Sally League.
I can't wait...
until I get the opportunity to catch some games up in Lancaster, hopefully before Martinez gets the call up to (AA).
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by NocturnalMatt on May 19, 2010 1:33 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree, Keuchel is doing great. If he continues this pace, I think he deserves a mid-season promotion to Corpus.
by Snake Diggity on May 19, 2010 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions
really excited about Lyles!!
He seems more and more like the real deal. Keith Law released his new top 25 prospects and said Lyles just missed the cut and would be around #30. By the end of the year with more players graduating to the majors (i.e… Strasburg, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Desmond Jennings, etc…) & if he continues to pitch well it’s not out of the question to think he could be a top 10 or 15 prospect in all of baseball.
Even though Castro & Mier aren’t hitting for that great an average… they’re OBP is a good sign.
Lyles is performing greatly without a doubt. One thing i noticed from his outing tonight was that he got way too many fly-outs. 9 groundouts to 14 flyouts. 1.18 GO/AO ratio is not good. Keeping that ball up will burn him sooner or later. But, he is still adjusting and will likely improve in that area.
I didn’t like that stat too but 5 of those fly outs were pop ups. He still needs time in AAA before we can think about calling him up imo; this is really his first season being able to use his full arsenal of pitches.
Mier is starting to swing the bat a bit better and his approach at the plate is still laudable. Austin had a good game tonight as well and Dydalewicz also pitched quite decently—his problem has been with command this season.
Also, Tanner Bushue has been pitching well too…he will be interesting to watch as the season goes and as the innings pile up.
Agreed, Houston is probably going to keep the same plan for Lyles in AA as they did in Lexington. Give him a full season there and start off next year in AAA and think about a call-up in september. Tanner Bushue will likely be sent on the same route as well.
Dydalewicz had a very good game for him as well, two of the hits he allowed were bunts, so i don’t put that on him. He could be turning a corner as well.
Robert Donovan
I promised Subber I’d talk a little about his start since I watched it on MilB.TV. He put up some excellent numbers, 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 8 K, 1 BB.
What I was most impressed with about Donovan was the excellent downward plane on his fastball and his ability to keep it down in the strike zone and throw quality pitches with it. This seems the pattern for Heck’s pitchers: Tall, projectable, good fastball command, and Donovan was no exception. The fastball was pretty straight and hitters were able to foul it off a fair amount, but couldn’t do much with it as he didn’t give them many pitches to hit. He worked both corners showing a good willingness to come inside on batters.
However, there were periods where he’d lose his delivery for a few pitches and would struggle to throw strikes, but most of his mistakes were outside the strike zone, and he was able to recover and get guys out generally.
His secondary stuff was hard to get a read on. I’m not even sure what he was throwing as a result. He got some swings and misses on a breaking ball in the dirt which looked a little slurvey perhaps, but a lot of his breaking stuff seemed to flatten out on him and he only sometimes had good depth on his pitches. That said, he was able to throw it for strikes, so that’s good.
Donovan looks to have more potential than I expected going into his start, but I’ll reserve judgment on his ceiling until I see more of him and find out what kind of velocity he has.
I really appreciate this Orem. This is good stuff. I expected him to have good downward plane on his fastball, mostly because he 6’5. I found a report on him at perfectgame.com from when he was still at Stetson. He was throwing in the low 90’s then and he’s put on some mass since then, and may have gotten a few more ticks on his FB. But, as we’ve seen in most of the other young guys, they lose a few in the first few years in the minors. So low 90’s high 80s is a good estimate.
It sounds like he has cleaned up his control from his previous starts but still needs a lot of work on repeating his delivery and polishing his secondary stuff. Which is perfect for Lexington, being that it is a pitchers league for the most part. I’d keep in lexington for the season, not even think about Lancaster, especially since he has shown that he can walk a lot of guys, that would murder him in Lancaster. His ceiling isn’t high, probably #5 starter maybe #4 or a solid reliever.
Hardball Times had a recent update on prospects, and had a couple of nice comments about Mier and Jordan:
Lyle: For those who have been sleeping on Lyles, his early-season Texas League performance should be necessary proof that he is one of the best young pitchers around.
Jio Mier: On the surface Mier has flat out struggled, even defensively, but digging deeper we can see that Mier is drawing walks at a tremendous rate for his age and is finding ways to score and drive in runs any way he can.
All good things
With a good draft, this farm should rank in the top 15 next year. With a great draft, top 10.
Getting anxious to see who gets a mid-season promotion. Martinez and Hinze should certainly advance considering what they are doing in a pitcher’s league. I think you treat Bushue just like Lyles (keep him in Lexington a full year, then skip Lancaster and start him at Corpus next year). Donovan you may promote to Lancaster this year.
I’d promote some of the Lancaster relievers to Corpus; mainly Berner and Wabick.
I’d like to see what Arguello, Meszaros, Villar and Lumsden could do in Round Rock.
I don’t see anyone in Round Rock putting up numbers that demand a callup, but Bogusevic, Johnson, Castro, and Navarro are all putting themselves in position for a September audition at least. It was a bummer to see Wright get shelled last night. Bazardo and Gervacio will probably be able to help Houston this year, and I’d like to see Trinidad get a September callup.
I agree Bushue needs to stay in Lexington and i think Donovan probably needs to stay as well though since he has shown he can struggle with command at times, thats one of the worst things that can happen in Lancaster (see Dydalewicz). Arguello, Meszaros both need to be RR for sure. Villar was in Lexington last year, so its not so dire that he gets moved around quickly, but Arnsberg really likes Villar, so maybe we do need to move him along as fast as he wants. I think the organization needs to make up their mind on Lumsden, reliever or starter. Currently he is replacing Abad while he’s out for injury, and he’s performed great, he does strike guys out, but he can get them out in other ways. He was a reliever last year. But, if any pitcher needs to move up, i’d say Keuchel, his last two starts have been sterling, he’s ready to move up.
I really want to see Castro up by June honestly. Hes been hitting at a .360 rate these past 10 games and still walking. I’d like to see his slugging go up, of course but dear god…i want them to bring him up just for I can have a reason to watch the stros (aside from Bourn’s development).
Also, anyone have a scouting report on Keuchel? I imagine he has a high 80s fast ball that sometimes touches 90 with a stellar change up correct?
I found very little on him, most of the stuff is behind pay walls. But gathering small information from various articles. He throws a 4-seam 2-seam changeup, curveball, and slider. He believes his curveball is his best pitch. Over the summer in the Cape Cod league, before his last year at Arkansas, he got his velocity over 90 on his FB with good movement. He also said that his slider can be dominant.
I remember watching Keuchel in the College World Series last year for Arkansas. I don’t remember how hard he was throwing, but he seemed very polished — changed speeds well and worked both sides of the plate.
It seems like there are a number of pitchability guys having great success in the majors this season. I wonder if Keuchel could be that kind of guy a year or two from now.
My Keuchel notes
In college, his 2-seamer ran ~87 mph, his 4-seam got up to ~91mph, his slurvy-curve was in the high 70’s. He’s a crafty-type, not relying on his velocity for success.
When he was drafted, BA said his ceiling was #4 starter. Here’s an interview with him, where the big takeaway is that he’s really confident in his slider and likes to use it to set up his changeup. This is probably well-founded, because BA called his slider “vicious” when he was in the CWS and Bobby Heck said Keuchel had the best changeup of anyone they drafted last year.
He also has a bit of a fascination with athletic shoes.
Thats where i got most of my information, its good to see that BA calls his slider “vicious” and he thinks his curve is his best pitch, and Heck says his change is the best in the class. Most of the stuff i’ve seen on FB is that its heavy. Real good sink on it. Thats gotta be good make-up for a pitcher. Real good arsenal IMO, i think his ceiling should be higher than a #4.
Who is David Berner
Drafted last year in 14th round from San Jose St.
LHP RP
Turns 23 in Aug and in A+
Less than a hit per inning and 10.3K/9
BB in 22.2 IP
That is right, 1 walk in 14 appearances.
Anyone know anything about him?
He either has a trick pitch that he throws for a strike and fools low-level hitters or he has a good heater and control of it. He might be in the McLemore class and just have too much control with average stuff for low-level hitters. Anyone know? That, 26K/BB, stat is pretty dang awesome.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
(David) Berner, their lefty, is as good a college lefty as there is out there on the West Coast this year. He’s 85-87, he’ll touch 88, but it’s any pitch, any time, anywhere."
This is from BA last year when he was still in college. Thats all I could find.
somewhat disappointing
I was really hoping for one of the 2 previous possibilities. The great “Pitchability” guys tend to peripherally suffer in AA,AAA, and become a LOOGY in MLB.
Still on my radar for the rest of the year though
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
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