Tomorrow, I take off for Vegas. Vegas is a land of many things, but for the purposes of post, it is the land of legal sports bets. You can bet your bottom dollar I'll be making some sort of wager involving the Astros. But I don't to be the one who has all the fun, so I am going to ask for your input.
Baseball lines seem like something that saber-slanted fans should probably have some proclivity for gaming, but I have never done any digging into systems, personally. I did hear some discussion of it over Twitter this weekend, so I know it exists. Regardless of whether clack is actually making a living April-October on baseball bets because of his proprietary model, or you just want throw in your two cents, I am all ears.
I will be in Vegas Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and of course I will only lay a bet in favor of the Astros. That's the Rockies, the Rockies, and then Rays. Someone will have to make a very strong case for Friday, but, again, I am all years. I guess this decision doesn't center so much around beating the lines, but in finding the most favorable line for the Astros given what we know. As someone who is no authority on baseball bets, I'll link to this site as it's the only site I could find that has more than just the daily lines (if you know a better one, link to it the comments).
Looking at the probable pitching match-ups, it is a doozy of a decision. The Rockies boast an above average team wOBA of .337. That is impressive considering that the Astros, as a team, have a team wOBA of .268 and only two players batting above a .337 wOBA (minimum 90 PA). The Rockies also have 13 more DRS than the Astros. Better offense and better defense...eeesh. The Rays, slouches that they are, are posting a .324 wOBA and have 21 DRS to the Astros' 7.
That leaves the pitching match-ups spit out Gregg Smith of the 5.32 xFIP vs. Felipe Paulino of the 4.48 xFIP; Ubaldo Jimenz (3.50 xFIP) vs. a possibly auditioning for the role of half season rental, Roy Oswalt (3.31 xFIP); and Matt Garza (4.12 xFIP) vs. Brett Myers (3.83 xFIP).
There you have it. I think I've provided the high points of the macro numbers with links to quick access to the nitty gritty details. So what'll it be?