TCB Players of the Week and Astros Stock Watch
That's right, after a week's worth of games, The Crawfish Boxes (soon to be sponsored) Players of the Week awards are back! There was no truth to the rumor swirling around that Pepto Bismol had decided to sponsor this week's POWs since the Astros don't have any runs this season. At any rate, let's head to the awards:
Hitter of the Week: Jeff Keppinger - The guy isn't even a starter. What's he doing here? It was, in fact, a toss-up between Kepp, Michaels and Sullivan, all bench guys. Do you realize that the Astros top three leaders in wOBA right now are all pitchers? At least Kepp has drawn the occasional walk. I considered boycotting this award in protest of an offense on pace to score 300 runs for the entire season, but wanted to give Kepp his due.
Pitcher of the Week: Roy Oswalt - You can look at the 0-2 record and see the same guy who struggled through 2009. But, a dominant Roy lurks under the surface. Against a patient Phillies team, Roy struck out seven in six innings. Get him some runs and the Astros will have their Wizard back.
Defender of the Week: Hunter Pence - Why, you ask? Because Pence has already made three Out of Zone plays this season. That projects out a little under his total of 81 from 2009, but it's still the best on the team. We remember the play where Pence didn't drop the foul pop and couldn't throw out the runner at home plate. Do we remember the same, routine plays Hunter makes the rest of the time? Put T.J. Steele, Brian Bogusevic or J.B. Shuck in left field in two years and the Astros outfield might not let a fly ball drop all season.
Astros Stock Watch (who's rising, who's falling, who needs to call their broker)
Lance Berkman, heading towards a dropoff - As Stephen so eloquently pointed out this morning, there is no time table with Berkman that we can trust. Things have gotten pushed back for so long now that it's doubtful he will play before the middle of May, much less before June. I had hoped the arthroscopic surgery he had back in spring training would fix the problem and he'd be back quickly. I had hoped the repeated draining of fluid out of his knee would get him back quickly. Now, I just don't know. What I do know is that I have too much Geoff Blum in my life right now. Berkman needs to get back yesterday.
Hunter Pence, bottoming out - Was Saturday a slump-buster for Pence? Or was it just an abberation? The Astros badly need both he and Lee to get going. Two days off out of the last three hopefully gave Pence enough time to sit and reflect on his life choices. Either that, or clear his head of all this anxiety. Can someone just keep him away form the energy drinks before the games? Thanks.
Carlos Lee, stop order - Oh, give me a home/Where El Bufalo roams/Where he never strikes out again....I'm not the first to point it out (actually, clack usually is, pointing out my points long before I make them), but Lee's K rate is pretty staggering. After posting rates of 9 percent, 10 percent and 8 percent in the past three seasons, Lee has struck out 32 percent of the time in 2010. He looks lost at the plate and even looked lost in left on Saturday when he got beaned by that Howard ricochet. The Astros absolutely need him to hit. What other value can he have to the club otherwise?
Kazuo Matsui, hostile takeover alert - The Man from Japan could be in danger of losing his job to Kepp. As clack posted earlier this week, Keppinger has been pretty bad defensively at second base. However, the Astros need offense badly. Matsui needs to get the bat going or risk Mills losing faith.
Brandon Lyon, volatility index through the roof - Which 15 Million Dollar Man will we see? The guy who gave up a gopher ball to Ryan Howard? Or the one who pitched effectively against the Giants? The Astros were only in position to use him once to protect a lead. In a bit of forward thinking by Mills, he deployed Lyon against the Phillies best hitters instead of waiting for the eighth inning. That could have easily been because of all the pitchers he used to get through Friday's game, but I prefer to think it was inspired.
Wandy Rodriguez, ebbing slowly - Two lackluster starts in a row for Wandy. To his credit, it wasn't the first inning in either game that gave him trouble (like the last couple of years, when Wandy would struggle early and settle in for the rest of the game). Unfortunately, his curve wasn't dancing like it usually does against the Cardinals. A win against the Cubs this weekend would do wonders for my confidence in him. It'd also help my fantasy team out quite a bit.
Sammy Gervacio, slight decline - Seems like forever ago, but it's only been a week since Slingin' Sammy went on the DL. Everyone has been positive about it, sayign he just needed some time to rest his shoulder and he'll be back good as new. Color me dubious. I also remember the same talk about Berkman, and about Arias, and about Bagwell....
Tim Byrdak, surprisingly high - Call him Mr. Sample Size. After a terrible spring, Byrdak had one bad outing against the Giants before throwing effectively in his next four games. He's tied with Sampson for the most appearances with five and Mills seems comfortable letting him throw to RHH and LHH alike. Points to him for that, considering Byrdak's unorthodox splits that clack refers to quite often. At the same time, he's only thrown in five games. It's a long season yet.
Brad Arnsberg, slow growth - Seven games in and the new pitching coach looks to be batting .500. Arnsberg has gotten Roy back on track, but he hasn't helped Wandy back to his 2009 levels. He made Paulino into a good starter (for one game) but has struggled with Bud Norris. The bullpen is a work in progress but its refreshing to see Chris Sampson doing well. All in all, he's done a good job with what he has. Now, if we can just keep them all healthy...
Brian Bogusevic, slow riser - While the Tulane star hasn't shown much power, he has continued to rake at Round Rock. From Saturday through Monday, Bogey was 6 for 11 with a double and two RBIs. He hasn't walked yet, but with his defense, couldn't he do a better job in left field right now than El Bufalo? Is he really more valuable to the club playing regularly in Round Rock rather than helping to jump start a stagnant offense at the big league level?
J.B. Shuck, moving quickly - The slap-hitting leadoff man for Corpus has been on a tear to start the season. Shuck already has one three hit game and has scored six runs in six games. The 22-year old is already proving to be as capable a leadoff hitter in Corpus as he was in High A Lancaster in 2009. A nasty 0-for-6 last night dampens some of the excitement here, but it's good to se Shuck transitioning well to the Texas League.
Wladimir Sutil, surprising upside - The Little Shortstop That Could took his assignment back to Corpus in stride. In fact, the 25-year old had hit in every game until Tuesday. Sutil is hitting .296/.296/.296...basically, all his hits have been singles and he hasn't walked yet. But, on the plus side, he did steal one base. And he's only struck out once in 27 plate appearances. So that's nice.
Jeremy Johnson, quick, fast drop - A trip back to New Orleans proved rocky for Johnson. Much like Bud Norris, the third inning was Johnson's undoing. He gave up seven runs in 2 2/3 innings on Sunday. The sinkerballer wasn't getting enough ground balls, it seems.
Casey Daigle, slowly increasing - In what is clearly a sign that the Astros view Daigle as a bullpen callup, the big righty has been pitching out of the 'pen for Round Rock. Of course, they haven't had too many opportunities to close down games, but Daigle has been lights out. In one of his appearances last week, Daigle struck out five in two innings. He did give up a two-run home run, but let's not focus on that.
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Searching for answers?
Reading this article just made me wonder if Mills should of started the regulars more in spring training. It seemed to me (and I haven’t checked the stats on this) that the regulars had a lot more time off this year than in previous years. The bench seems to be playing better than some of the regulars who have struggle a bit. So I’m wondering if it’s possible that a rookie mistake was made by the manager in not giving the regulars more playing time.
by Timothy De Block on Apr 14, 2010 12:18 PM CDT reply actions
At the same time, most of the regulars were hitting the ball well in the spring. One of the few guys who struggled (Manzella) even missed significant time with an injury, but has been pretty consistent at the plate. For whatever reason, the Astros are just slumping right now. It doesn’t help that they’ve faced some of the best pitching in the NL either.
It’s a good point, though. If the regulars start hitting in a week or so, was it because they just needed playing time?
by David Coleman on Apr 14, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Ya your last sentence was kind of what I was getting at. You could also look at the quality of the pitchers the hitters actually faced. A lot of the pitchers faced could of been minor leaguers or guys no longer with that team. Especially with the quality of pitching we’ve seen this past week It may of been a good idea to have the regulars starting against tougher competition in the final week of spring training.
It’s an interesting theory to explore and I don’t think it’s the main reason for the slow start, but it could of contributed to the slow start.
by Timothy De Block on Apr 14, 2010 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Nothing significant from what I've reviewed
although Keppinger did get 18 plate appearances in the final week of spring training as opposed to Lee who only got 12 PA.
by Timothy De Block on Apr 14, 2010 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I still am amazed that any team that thinks they can contend could enter a season with a late-30s utility infielder as the Plan B at 1B.
--
Dan Szymborski
BTF
Dan on ESPN Insider
Or that Plan C is to convert your starting third baseman? This was obviously not a contingency that was thought through very well.
by David Coleman on Apr 14, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree generally
But I feel that Blum was never considered as plan B at 1B. For better or worse, the front office seems blindsided by this. While I certainly can find fault in it, all indications of Berkman’s off-season were that Berkman was getting himself in shape for his pseudo-contract year. Blum being plan B is more a reflection the farm-systems lack of depth than contingency planning, in my estimation at least.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Apr 14, 2010 12:57 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
True, but you should never simply plan on a player not getting injured as your plan, especially a 34-year-old.
Shelton’s not likely to be a league-average 1B full-time, but to not have him ready when you’re playing Geoff Blum playing first is just puzzling beyond belief. What’s the hold-up? Fear of losing Brian Moehler? The team could replace him with 25-year-old pitching machine and not lose a beat.
--
Dan Szymborski
BTF
Dan on ESPN Insider
by D.Szymborski on Apr 14, 2010 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd love to know who it is they're weary of cutting
My guess is that they’re either in denialabout the reality of Berkman’s information…or…that’s actually the only justifiable excuse I suppose.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Apr 14, 2010 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions
If Shelton were put on the roster, either Keppinger, Blum, or Chris Johnson would lose a slot. You know that they aren’t going to cut Kepp or Blum since they are the veteran utility players and the Astros wouldn’t eat their contracts (modest as they might be). Chris Johnson is the Astros prospect who is being rewarded for a good spring. If Johnson isn’t going to be playing more than he is, the Astros probably would be better off with CJ playing full time in RR and Shelton playing close to full time at 1st base. Maybe a Shelton-Blum platoon if you have to. Maybe you send CJ to RR and give him starts at 1st base, and if Shelton starts to drop off, you call up CJ and play him full time at 1st base.
I don’t have the energy to check this out, but are there 40-man issues with putting Shelton on the major league roster?
How many more runs would we have scored if they’d given Chris Shelton the job instead? Of course, that would mean Johnson not making the club, but it’s not like he’s getting a ton of at-bats anyway, and if they’re not going to let him play every day I’d rather him get sent down.
I’m not sure why they even bothered to sign Shelton. He had a hot spring and 1B is basically his only real position… so our first baseman goes down with an injury and they keep Shelton in the minors? I suppose it the NRI was just an empty incentive and they really only signed him for Round Rock after all.
I can’t imagine how frustrating it must be to be an “AAAA” guy.
I agree
But this is where Shelton needs to step up and make some noise at round rock, especially since it looks like Berkman will be out for a lot longer.
by Timothy De Block on Apr 14, 2010 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Good question:
“I’m not sure why they even bothered to sign Shelton. He had a hot spring and 1B is basically his only real position… so our first baseman goes down with an injury and they keep Shelton in the minors?”
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Apr 14, 2010 1:18 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I was always in favor of keeping Shelton on the opening day roster in order to provide a replacement for Berkman’s DL time. As I’ve written on several occasions, Shelton has a good number of ML at bats (no small sample size), and he would project to have one of the better OBPs on the team, plus probably a 100 point higher OPS than Blum.
I think I'll mention Chris Shelton a few times in Thursday's Game Thread
(unless I must miss the game. It’s a busy week)
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Apr 14, 2010 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I almost wrote an article on Carlos Lee’s K rate yesterday. But I decided to give it more time, before writing something that might make readers feel panicky. The required sample for statistical significance related to K rates and BB rates is relatively small (50 – 70 PA, if I recall without looking it up). Lee is about half way there. And then I looked through Lee’s monthly K rates for several years and found one month with a similar sample and only 2 less Ks. Yes, the rate is higher now, but only a measly 2 Ks doesn’t give me a good feeling about reaching conclusions. That made me decide to hold off on writing something more detailed.
For K rate, I get 82 PA as the “midpoint.” I have % regression to league average of K rate modeled best as:
(PA)
1 – -—————
(PA+82)
--
Dan Szymborski
BTF
Dan on ESPN Insider
by D.Szymborski on Apr 14, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks. I was going to look up the article that Colin Wyers (I think) wrote on sample sizes for various stats.
I’m not really worried long-term about Lee’s strikeouts. As you both have said, the sample size here isn’t enough to really react to. My goal with this was to show who’s struggling, who’s doing well, etc. in the past week. If Lee keeps striking out at this rate through the All-Star break, we can start to worry.
by David Coleman on Apr 14, 2010 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm a little worried.
Just because I don’t remember ever seeing a slump this bad by Carlos Lee. Maybe my memory is just fuzzy. But this has definitely been a pretty terrible one.
defensive player of the week
I probably would pick Bourn as defensive player of the week. He leads the team in defensive runs saved with 3. He also has looked very good in the outfield.
Honestly, it was a tossup between Bourn and Pence. I went with Pence more to highlight that he has been good even as his most talked about play may have been a bad one.
by David Coleman on Apr 14, 2010 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Bourn’s going to have plenty of DPoW
by Timothy De Block on Apr 14, 2010 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Yordany Ramirez leads the Express in OPS
He’s batting .357/.400/.571 with two stolen bases and no strikeouts. It’s only in 15 plate appearances (for some reason he’s not been able to earn playing time over Bourgeois), but still, a pretty hot start.
It looks like the surplus outfielders are indeed causing some playing time squeeze unless there’s an injury I don’t know about to Ramirez.
Bourgeois has played well too. It seems like I read something positive about him in every game recap. Bourgeois has a .367 BA, .424 OBP, .400 SLG, .824 OPS, and 5 SB (0 CS) in 30 AB.

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