How to Fix the Astros Offense: Carl Crawford, Anyone?
by David Coleman on Apr 13, 2010 6:01 AM CDT
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PrintI wanted to expand on a question I asked in my Carlos Lee HOF column. Houston's recent offensive struggles have certainly made it a pertinent question. Does it make sense for the Astros to let Lance Berkman walk and replace him with Carl Crawford?
Let's first discuss Crawford as a hitter. He is now in his Age 29 season and is at the end of a six year contract. If the Astros traded for him, they'd have to either extend his contract or risk losing him on the free agent market. In the past five seasons, Crawford has only had a wOBA under .350 once (2008) and has only been under 4.5 WAR twice. In the first instance (2007), Crawford's WAR dropped because his UZR fell to -1.2 after consistently being above 15 in every season before or since.
In 2008, his WAR was adversely affected by his hitting. Crawford had his lowest ISO of his career in 2008 at .126. He hits for a good average, walks in six or seven percent of his plate appearances and will hit between 10-15 home runs each season. Crawford is also an excellent baserunner, stealing at least 50 bases in five of the last seven seasons. His career success rate is 81.79 percent. That's very good and makes him a real asset on the base paths.
Defensively, Crawford doesn't have a great arm, which is why he landed in left field. FanGraphs has his am value at -2.5 for his career. What sets Crawford apart from other left fielders is his tremendous range. It gives him the versatility to play some center field in a pinch and helps cut down on the number of balls that fall for doubles in the gap. In 2009, Crawford made an astounding 109 Out of Zone plays. Compare that to Carlos Lee's 51 in 2009, which was the highest total in his career.
How would he rank in the Astros lineup? His wOBA becomes the second-highest on the team, according to last season's numbers. HIs WAR total from 2009 also would rank at the top of the current roster. His ISO of .150 puts him fifth on the team, in the spot held formerly by Miguel Tejada. He doesn't have the raw power to replace a Lance Berkman, but it's unclear whether the Big Puma can ever be the same player he was. Crawford instantly would make the Astros a better lineup and could easily bat in the third spot of the order.
He and Michael Bourn played on the same Little League team, which is a great recruiting tool to get Crawford to sign long-term. Bourn, Pence and Crawford would instantly give the Astros the best defensive outfield in the National League and would surpass the Mariners combo of Franklin Gutierrez, Ichiro and whoever they throw out in left field. Balls just wouldn't fall to the ground in MMP's outfield, even with that wide expanse in right center. Think about it. With someone as fast as Crawford in left, Bourn could shade towards Pence and cut off all those doubles against the bullpen.
At the same time, there are some drawbacks. The Astros would be trading for a player on the decline. While Crawford is still young at 29, Houston would have to give him a long-term contract, which would run into his mid-30's. Who knows if his speed (which makes his game) will hold up that long, thus affecting his value greatly. His addition could bump Carlos Lee to first base, but it also blocks talented young outfielders in T.J. Steele and J.D. Martinez. Plus, unless Hunter Pence or Chris Johnson have a breakout year in 2010, the Astros would be lacking any real pop. They'd have to rely on doubles, steals and the ground game to 'manufacture' runs. Just like the good ole' days in the Dome.
Crawford also comes with a hefty price tag. Looking at his trade value, he'd probably net around 15 million in assets. That means the Astros would have to give up a top 100 pitcher (Jordan Lyles) or two grade B players to get him. The problem with that is the Rays don't have much use for another talented young pitcher, especially if he's as close to the majors as Lyles is. I think the two teams could work out a deal, but it wouldn't be the best offer the Rays could get for Crawford. A three-person trade of Tanner Bushue, T.J. Steele and Juri Perez works on paper, but it's not a ton of value. Plus, to get to the required value, you have to include another outfielder. I'm not sure the Rays need someone like Steele in their system. At least Bushue is young enough to be ready right about the time James Shields, David Price and Jeff Niemann start geting expensive.
So, let's leave it to you, dear readers. Does Carl Crawford help this offense enough to make a deal? Do the Astros even need him once Lance Berkman comes back? Could the Astros just wait until the offseason to sign him instead of giving up so many prospects?
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Let’s start off with the fact that Crawford isn’t close to Berkman’s offensive value. (career w0BA of .408 for Berkman vs. .344 for Crawford; Crawford has had a 5 WAR season once, and Berkman has had a 6 WAR season five times.) So, I don’t think that Crawford would fill the hole that is created if Berkman leaves, based on Berkman’s historic offense. Now, if you could somehow figure out how to replace Lee with Crawford w/o losing Berkman, I think it would be an improvement.
If the Astros want Crawford, they should probably wait until he is a free agent (assuming he isn’t signed to an extension by a trading team), because I don’t think the Astros can afford losing the array of prospects to get a player who will require a huge contract to retain. The Yankees have been rumored to have their eye on Crawford for many years. Rosenthal, in this column “”http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Carl-Crawford-may-be-destined-to-become-a-New-York-Yankee-040910" >Is Carl Crawford destined to wear pinstripes?" thinks that the competition for Crawford will be “staggering.” My suspicion is that the free agent bidding will overpay Crawford. Rosenthal quotes Crawford as saying he is excited about the prospect of going through free agency. Can’t say that I blame him.
If Berkman’s injury leads the Astros to believe that he should be let go next year, LF and 1st base are among the easier positions to fill in free agency, which means that the Astros probably shouldn’t overpay for Crawford.
If the Astros can figure out a way to trade Lee next off-season and sign Crawford at a reasonable price, that is something worth thinking about. But I doubt that it’s in the cards.
I don’t actually like this trade nor do I think the Astros could get Crawford for a reasonable offer. They DO have a shot to sign him, I think, because of his ties to the area. Can they compete with the Yankees money? Probably not.
Crawford is not the hitter that Berkman was. But, can Lance still be that hitter? The longer he sits out, the more I doubt that he will return to 2008 levels. Ultimately, the best option for the Astros is for T.J. Steele, J.D. Martinez, Jason Castro and Jio Mier to all make an impact in the near future.
by David Coleman on Apr 13, 2010 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions
I think the question of re-signing Berkman is separate from trying to sign Crawford. Whether Berkman’s knee makes him too big a risk to re-sign is not yet known. But if that turns out to be the case, there are many possible options for replacing him, though none are likely to be an elite player, which we are used to with Berkman. Heck, right now you could probably sign Jermaine Dye to play 1st base on a cheap 1 year contract, and possibly get 30 HR production.
another example: Jack Cust cleared waivers and was put on the A’s AAA team, and he hit 27 HRs in the majors last year.
For that matter, Vernon Wells was freely available last summer after he was placed on waivers. This season, he has six home runs already. (I know that’s most likely a fluke, but it does illustrate your point about freely available talent).
You are right that the two outcomes are not linked. If the Astros do cut ties with Berkman, though, I’m not sure they can get a better player than Crawford to replace him, even if it does come at an exorbitant cost.
by David Coleman on Apr 13, 2010 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I voted no
I don’t believe it would make the Astros offense better, but I do believe it would make their defense a lot better. And that could certainly help.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
If the Astros have any strength at all in the minors,l
it’s Castro at catcher and several promising outfielders. The weakness is infield. Why dilute what is already a thin component?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Apr 13, 2010 8:57 AM CDT reply actions
Infield Prospects
The Astros have 3B Jonathan Meyer, SS Jiovanni Mier, 2B Jose Altuve just off the top of my head. The Astros have a glaring weakness at 1B, but that could change if J.D. Marinez gets moved from OF to 1B.
The Astros for instance could make a move in the upcoming draft and take SS Christian Colon and move him to second and then take SS/3B Derek Dietrich and move him to third, as both are college players and could pull a Gordon Beckham and be ready to contribute on the major league level within a year. Heck and Co. could still take a prep pitcher with the first pick and take college position players with #19 and #33.
IMO stay the course and continue drafting talented players regardless of amateur level (college or HS) and continue to aggressively promote prospects through the farm system. The rebuilding is going to take some time, no need to rush and make short-sighted moves.
I’d be incredibly surprised if McLane approved the Astros drafting Dietrich. He seems like the kind of guy who holds grudges and after Dietrich made him look so bad in the 2007 draft, I’m not so sure Drayton spends any money on him. Otherwise, I agree with all your points.
by David Coleman on Apr 13, 2010 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Six one-half dozen of the other
You could substitute 3B/2B Zack Cox for Dietrich, but the idea was in essence to get college position players that could move through the farm quickly.
I would hope that McLane wouldn’t be petty about what happened with Dietrich. Originally he was all set to sign and then fell and broke his non-throwing arm. The Astros rescinded his offer and wanted him to see how his arm would heal and this gave the Georgia Tech coaching staff the opportunity to sway him toward college. At the last minute, Timmy P. tried in vain with a last ditch effort of an offer (also tried with Brett Eibner as well) only to be shunned. If anything I blame the Astros in that case.
Nonetheless I’m excited to see what Heck and Co. do in this upcoming draft with as many picks as they have in the top 33. Let’s just hope McLane tells Selig to suck a lemon and allows his people to draft and sign over slot.
I know how to fix the Astros offense.
FAITH!!! The definition of faith is BELIEVING in something that hasn’t happened yet. So here is my MESSAGE TO THE ASTROS: We (the fans) still believe in you guys!! And we’re REALLY hoping that you guys still believe in yourselves, too. And since it hasn’t happened yet, we have FAITH that you guys can turn this thing around and that the Astros WILL be successful this year……GO ASTROS!!!!
It would be nicer to be able to trade Lee for Crawford.
The dream world I am living in also has the Astros at 5-2 this year. It’s pretty fun here.
I've been there before
but only for a visit
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Apr 13, 2010 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions
No...
Because if there’s anything the Astros can afford to do right now, it’s take on an expensive, long term contract while getting rid of prospects…
hey guys, FIRST TIME POSTER HERE
i spend my time at battle red blog for the texans, and was waiting to post on here until after our first W…. but i cant wait till after the nfl draft so im here now.
lee for crawford will NOT happen, but that would be sick.
berkman and roy o are the only ones with real value, and i think we should trade BOTH for prospects and maybe 1 established player. im also not opposed to trading hunter or wandy, but not for scraps.
this will be a long year, but at least the rockets made the……………wait…….the texans have been to the pla……….wait…
april 22 hurry!!!!!!!!
and yes we ARE this bad, and it makes my pee pee hurt to admit it
"Its like a silk bag filled with puppy ears"
My feeling is this:
I’ve been looking at this year for sometime knowing it was going to rough with a capital R. It’s the price the Astros are paying for the indiscretions of the past, but Heck and co. Are working to resolve the old fashioned way. I just can’t see any realistic justification for all the sudden blowing up the franchise just to lesson the blow of this season.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Apr 13, 2010 12:03 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
The Astros need to stay away from Crawford
and all other big-ticket free agents until they are a piece or two away from contention. Until then, spend that money on the draft and international signings.
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
by DrewRusse on Apr 13, 2010 12:38 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Crawford would be great....but......
Where would he play? Lee is here for another 3 years and who in their right minds (well…Yankees maybe) would trade for him? I love the idea but it’s not feasible. The Astros need help in so many areas one guy isn’t going to be the difference maker. Fortunately we only need to find a 3rd basemen……..and SS………..and 2nd baseman………and replacement for Lance at 1st……BUT THAT’S ALL WE REALLY NEED!!
No way.
We have too many promising potential left fielders close to the majors. Off the top of my head: Shuck, Steele, Gaston, Clemens, Bogusevic (I still have a glimmer of hope he can become an everyday player), Locke. And those are just guys at AA and higher. If you want to delve into the lower minors there are even more.
The last thing I want to do is create a logjam unnecessarily when there’s a chance we could get Crawford’s production (or better) from an MLB minimum player out of our own farm system. Sure, whoever we hand the job is going to be a rookie and he’ll need time to adjust, but are we going to be contending in the meantime? I think not.
The Astro rebuild
would probably take awhile, so shell out in this season’s FA is probably not a good idea anyway, except to maybe pick up a few spare piece that might be flipped later or just so you can field a team that isn’t instant 100 lose material.
Also, if your going to rebuild around someone , try looking for a up the middle talent is usually a good start., Crawford isn’t that (though I suppose you could try playing him in CF)
If we were selling to the Rays
Why wouldn’t we take advantage of their copious farm system instead of buying an expensive left fielder they’re not likely willing to part with during a postseason run?
If there was ever a team that’s in buy mode, it’s them. They should be 100% focused on winning now.
Their biggest need is at catcher. They’re jammed at virtually every other position. I could see the deadline being a potentially advantageous time to trade them J.R. Towles. The problem is, he’s still not hitting, and even if his bat has picked up by then, it still seems like we’d be selling low.
Would you give up a Jeremy Hellickson or a Wade Davis or a Jeff Niemann or a (list goes on and on and on…) for a guy at the fringe of “busted prospect”? Yeah, I wouldn’t either. But then I don’t have the starting pitching depth the Rays have, soo…
Maybe, just maybe, they’d be interested in Roy Oswalt in addition to J.R. Towles at the deadline. They have tons of starting pitching, but they’re trying to win right now, and one thing they lack is a true #1 starting pitcher for the postseason. They have a lot of good pitchers, but they’re all #2/#3 type guys who they might not feel comfortable with during the playoffs facing off against the likes of CC Sabathia and Josh Beckett.
So how about it? Oswalt and Towles for a pair of unproven pitchers and maybe a fringe-y B-/C+ prospect?
What would the Rays do with Oswalt next year, even if they decide they could afford him now? The Rays owners has said that the Rays will have a dramatic reduction in its payroll next year, which would mean they couldn’t keep his contract. All of this depends, too, on how the Rays feel about their playoff chances come mid-year. I assume Rosenthal’s speculation that the Rays will trade Crawford at mid-year is based on the view that the Rays will have fallen behind the Sox and Yankees by mid-season. I always wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays would insist on the Astros taking at least one expensive (oh, please not Burrell..) player back in the trade. The team should be focused on winning this season, but their owner is dead set to cut payroll. Keep in mind that the Rays have been drawing something like 15,000 a game so far.
Phase 1
Step 1: Distill
Step 2: Build Markov Umbrella
Step 3: Self-Explanatory
Even my enemies don’t deserve Ed “the event horizon” Wade.
by j reed on Apr 14, 2010 2:19 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
i luv crawford, but no
trading young players for expensive FA on the downside of their careers is what got the astros into a lot of the trouble they are in right now. the LAST thing the astros need is yet another player with a huge, long contract.
even IF the rays were willing to trade crawford for some of the few prospects we DO have, what exactly do you plan to do with carlos lee? people keep talking about trading him, but he absolulely refuses to be traded to ANYONE, and has already refused 3 trades (to contenders) that i know of for dead certain.
and next year, carlos can choose (of the teams he can be traded to – i think there are 6) only teams that have no payroll/prospects and don’t want him.
Viva El Pest
I had wondered if Lee has a limited no trade clause next year. Cot’s just says that the full no trade clause ends. If Carlos has a limited no trade clause next year in which he can identify the teams he would approved a trade to, it would make sense that his agent would pick the least likely teams to accept him. Lisa, do you have any source I can go to for the limited no trade clause?
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