The Astros Roster Comes Into Focus
by David Coleman on Apr 1, 2010 6:00 AM CDT
in Houston Astros News
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PrintWell, the 25-man roster is set. As we have discussed, Lance Berkman, Alberto Arias and Yorman Bazardo were all placed on the 14-day DL. In addition, Jason Bourgeois was reassigned to minor league camp, leaving the Astros with an even 25 on the roster.
The biggest surprise here is that Chris Johnson made the roster. He definitely had a prolific spring from a power standpoint, but where does he fit on the team? Our theory now is that the Astros kept him over Chris Shelton so that Johnson could play first in Berkman's absence. What if they had a different reason?
The Astros want Johnson to play every day. What if he's going to platoon with Feliz?
Look, Pedro Feliz isn't a very good hitter against anyone. His splits against righthanders are about the same as lefties. Johnson, on the other hand, hit lefties quite a bit better than righties last season. In fact, his left-handed split was .321/.370/.523. A couple caveats to that. His BABiP was .383 and he only had 109 at-bats against lefties, compared to 282 against righthanders. His line drive rate was also slightly higher than his season average (22 percent to 25 percent), which partly explains his higher BABiP.
Will platooning Johnson give him enough at-bats this season? Say he starts twice a week. That means he will have played in about 60 games by the end of the season and have somewhere around 240 plate appearances. Is that enough for a 25-year old to develop? Or will Johnson be sent down once Berkman is healthy?
I'm glad to see Johnson on the roster. I'm just not sure what the purpose is yet.
The other "big" news is that Matt Lindstrom is the new closer. With his performance this spring and Lyon's slow start due to the cyst in his shoulder, this was inevitable. The question is, does Lyon even have a chance of winning his job back? Lindstrom only had eight innings of work this spring and part of my optimism comes from Brad Arnsberg adjusting his grip on the slider. That's not a guarantee his results during the regular season will be as good.
I like Lindstrom. With his fastball/slider combo, he could rival Billy Wagner and Brad Lidge as a dominant closer. I'm still not quite sold, though. Brad Mills didn't have many other choices but to name Lindstrom to the job.
What surprised you the most about the composition of the roster? Who gets sent down when Berkman comes off the DL? What about Arias?
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The closer position is Lindstrom’s to lose. No matter how well Lyon pitches I don’t think you see a switch unless Lindstrom falls flat on his face.
I’m also wondering if management has decided that Johnson is no more than a backup who can come off the bench with some power. It’s unlikely but I think that’s how a lot of us felt he’d turn out before his spring training perfomrance.
by Timothy De Block on Apr 1, 2010 7:23 AM CDT reply actions
McTaggert responded to a comment, asking whether Johnson would be viewed as a bench player this year:
No, this is just a short-term deal. The Astros are hopeful Berkman will be back by the fifth game, at which time Johnson would likely be sent to RR to start. Perhaps he gets some starts at 3B and Feliz at 1B in the meantime.
Obviously, this is just McTaggert’s opinion, though a well-informed one, since he is around the team officials. The first starting LHP faced by the Astros will be Zito. We will see if Johnson gets a start at that time.
After the Lindstrom and Lyon acquisitions, this is the way I hoped it would turn out, with Lindstrom showing that he can be the closer and with Lyon as the set up man and safety net, in case Lindstrom has problems in the closer role. However, I wonder if Lyon’s arm is recovered enough to take over the set up role right now. Lyon doesn’t seem like he is up to speed yet. I would probably start the season with Sampson in the set up role and Lyon getting middle relief outings.
I have to imagine the baseball gods will make Lindstrom will turn into a dominant closer, if only to allow various pundits to criticize Wade even more for the Lyon contract.
by seanbergmanrules on Apr 1, 2010 8:37 AM CDT reply actions
I think McTaggart is right
I think Johnson is on the opening day roster as a reward for a good spring and to maybe get a few AB’s before Lance returns. I wouldn’t read anything more into it just yet. Heard on the radio that Feliz is going to start at 1B today with Johnson at 3B. Doubt we’ll see this on opening day, but against Zito (lefty) on Tuesday, this might be more likely. Now Johnson may force their hand if he’s tearing the cover off the ball, but I seriously doubt this is a long-term decision.
by littlevisigoth on Apr 1, 2010 8:40 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Brad Mills said Geoff Blum to start at first
From Chronicle yesterday: Veteran utility infielder Geoff Blum will start at first base on opening day, Mills said.
As far as Lyon goes, until he shows otherwise, I’m in the “pundits’” camp of he has been bad news from day one.
I would ove to see Chirs Johnson prove he is ready for everyday duties; and as promising as Pedro Feliz seems, maybe the Astros can trade him for someone of equal quality but of greater need currently
I pray 2010 will not be remembered as The Year of Injuries.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Apr 1, 2010 9:03 AM CDT reply actions
Footer tweeted this AM
that Mills said Johnson will get some starts against lefties. I wonder if once Berkman comes back does he stay on the roster? I doubt it….not sure how many lefties we faced this first week.
Also Feliz is playing 1st today….and Johnson is at 3rd. Seems to me Mills is taking a look at longer term options if Puma sits out an extended period.
"now you chunkin' in there.."
Sounds reasonable enough. The only concern for me is that it won’t give CJ a chance to prove himself against RHP. Maybe he’ll get some pinch at bats against righties though.
Wouldn’t it be nice if he forced his way onto the roster with continued hitting, forcing a trade? Minuscule chance of that actually happening, of course.
If he starts against a lefty,
wouldn’t he stay in when reliever (presumably righty) enters?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Apr 1, 2010 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Felipe at 1st, Johnson at 3rd, and Blum at SS?
Until everyone gets back from the DL at least.
From reports
sounds like Manzella should be in the lineup today.
He played yesterday in a minor league game.
by Timothy De Block on Apr 1, 2010 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions
If Eddie is smart
He’ll make an offer to the Rangers involving Keppinger for prospects. He seems like pretty nearly the perfect corner infielder for them (cheap, versatile, career .802 OPS against lefties); we could probably get a half-decent prospect back, maybe even a B- type guy, or at least something similar to what we got for Pudge.
I suggest this regardless of our current favorite topic of choice (Chris Johnson); we could use the prospects, and Keppinger is mostly redundant for us with Blum on the roster. Whether it’s Johnson or Maysonet or somebody else, we have farmhands who can adequately fill that IF5 role.
makes sense to me
I’ve thought it made the most sense to trade Pedro Feliz, but Keppinger might be the most logical option.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Apr 1, 2010 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
I don’t think Feliz is tradeable unless a team out there suffers a major injury at 3d base and doesn’t have a comfortable replacement. His salary is too high for a team to pick him up as a part time player.
that could be true if Feliz has had a hot first half of hitting. (And Wade may be reluctant to part with him if he has a hot first half too.) If his first half hitting is along the lines of most of the projections, I don’t think he will be viewed as an offensive piece worthy of $2 million which might remain on his contract. Feliz’s primary value is as a defensive player at 3d base. If A-Rod or Polanco has a major injury, I could see the Yankees or Phillies trading for him.
What about trading Blum?
No buyers? I’d prefer to trade him out of the three we are talking about here.
I agree, and I have thought about the same thing. I say that even though I kind of like Keppinger as a bench player. But the reason I like Keppinger is the reason that I think he has the most value of possible infield trading parts: he is both versatile and he can kill lefties.
What makes you think that? I would hope somebody will have emerged from the farm system by then, though it’s looking unlikely as of now, but barring that it seems more likely that the front office will look at free agency and trades.
I could see the scenario of Keppinger starting at second base, but that would require the organization a change in thought process which I don’t believe they will do.
by Timothy De Block on Apr 2, 2010 7:21 AM CDT up reply actions
I doubt that Keppinger is a starter quality second baseman. He is a quality utility player or platoon starter. But his overall offensive stats will look much worse if he consistently bats against RHP. If free agent second baseman are as cheap next year as they were this past off season, I would go that route. I wonder if Bourgeois will get any time at 2d base in Round Rock? One could hope that German Duran resurrects his career in the Astros’ system…or some other similar long shot occurs.
Nah
Keppinger is extremely valuable on this team.
Aren’t we rushing to peg Johnson as an everyday 3B a little soon? His fielding this spring was subpar and even though his bat was good, it’s a small sample size and his larger body of work suggests he needs to develop more power to be considered a long term solution at 3rd.
Wade is doing him right; reward him in the short term, when Lance gets back, send him down to RR to prove he’s really ready and wait for an injury. At the deadline, if Houston is out of contention, trade Feliz and promote CJ.
I like Keppinger, but I think it’s a stretch to say he’s “extremely” valuable to us. He’s the kind of guy who provides most of his value with his bat, and even then, he was only worth two runs (runs, not wins) above replacement last season.
I very much doubt he can play shortstop above replacement level, and so far he’s been below average defensively at both second and third base. Furthermore, with the addition of Pedro Feliz, Keppinger is likely to get even less plate appearances than last year splitting time off the bench with Geoff Blum.
It’s not really about Chris Johnson so much as that Keppinger is more valuable to the Rangers than to us, and prospects are more valuable to us than the <0.5 wins Keppinger is likely to provide in 2010.
The argument I can see for Kepp’s value to the Astros is that Kaz Matsui is injury prone and the Astros don’t have much minor league depth at second base. That said, if the Rangers made a good offer for Keppinger (I wouldn’t just give him away for a PTBNL), I would consider it. If Kaz were injured, Maysonet could be called up to share 2d base duties with Blum. That would diminish the Astros’ pinch hitting ability somewhat, though.
I just find it hard to believe Keppinger is better defensively than Blum at second base. His bat is a little better but the difference in WAR value has to be incredibly small overall, especially as a backup bench guy.
Oh, you may be right, in terms of Blum vs. Keppinger as defensive second baseman. But I’m assuming that Blum is likely to be the primary back up at 3d base and shortstop, making Keppinger the primary back up at 2d base.
Well, my assumption is that if we traded Keppinger one of two things would happen:
1) Maysonet gets brought up to back up the middle infield spots, Blum continues backing up 1B/3B.
or
2) Johnson gets brought up to split time at 3B with Feliz, Blum backs up the middle infield positions.
Either way I find it hard to believe there would be much difference between Blum/Keppinger. Might even be better, who knows.
Minor League Ball doesn't start until 4/16
So CJ being here gives him some game experience while Berkman is out. If Feliz can play 1B I’d rather see CJ at third and Blum off the bench.
We don’t have a lot of pop on this team and when he makes contact, CJ does hit the ball HARD. So if for nothing else they need a guy who can hit a homer or at least a long fly ball.
Round Rock actually starts April 8th. But, I see what you’re saying. I’d rather have Johnson getting experience at the major league level anyway.
by David Coleman on Apr 1, 2010 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Looks like the Rangers just signed Ryan Garko
So that should end any Keppinger to Rangers talk. Too bad.
I would love for Chris Johnson
to tear the cover off the ball while he has a miniscule chance to, and force Wade’s hand to make a roster move with Blum or Kepp. Personally, I think Feliz would be a better Utility man than Blum(considering that Johnson is even good enough to take his spot at 3rd). I like Blum as a person and a “veteran presence,” but i would love Johnson to make Wade think about on the feild production vs. “veteran presence.”
Wade
Won’t allow a 4.5 million dollar player to sit on the bench as a utility player.
by Timothy De Block on Apr 2, 2010 7:23 AM CDT up reply actions
He already takes heat for his signings: 15 mil to Kaz & Lyon, 3 Mil to Moehler, 1.5 Mil to Blum. Having a 4.5 mil player you signed ride the bench is just more material for writers/bloggers and doesn’t look good amongst your peers.
Then again I guess a case could be made that he’s gone numb to the criticism. Having a 4.5 mil player riding the pine doesn’t help your reputation or your ego.
by Timothy De Block on Apr 2, 2010 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I also think that more factors come into play than we are aware of. Converting a guy who is a well-paid starter into benchwarmer creates an unhappy player, and potentially could result in clubhouse rancor. A rookie like Chris Johnson probably is happy to sit on the bench and take occasional at bats, but the veteran who has started throughout his whole career isn’t so happy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Feliz was promised extensive playing time at 3d base before he signed here. (Given that the Astros already had Blum and Keppinger, I’m sure Feliz wanted to know how his playing time role would work out.) And if that’s the case, Wade probably thinks about that too. I think that is one of the reasons that the Red Sox really want to trade Lowell. Even though he has significant value to Boston as a bench player, they realize he isn’t going to be a happy camper.
You make sense
but last year there were many times I would have sat Carlos Lee for not hustling. Let him be mad; the team is more important than one player. or a few years back when Morgan Ensberg hurt the team on the field because of his injuries.(I can think of a few more examples)
With Feliz, on the other hand, he pulls his weight and performs; and Johnson’s allure is not that he’s a better player but that he’s arguably the future and needs the development time (and presumably can produce too) .
My glib response earlier was based as much on salary should be a nonfactor – a sunk cost. There are valid reasons makeing Feliz a bench player is a bad idea (and I think he may be one of the Astros better players this year and should be kept in the lineup ) – his pay is not one of them.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Apr 2, 2010 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions
I don’t think sitting a player for non-hustling is the same thing. Feliz seems like a team oriented guy, and if he didn’t hustle, he probably would understand why he is sitting. (Would Carlos? I don’t know.) When I saw the Real Sports piece on Charley Manuel, they pointed to the time when he pulled Rollins from a game for failing to hustle after a pop up. Manuel, in his interview, said he hated doing it, but he felt like he had to send a message to the team. The impressive thing is that Jimmy Rollins was interviewed as one of players who loves Manuel. Rollins said he told Manuel that he deserved to be benched, and he said he had more respect for Manuel because of it. That’s off the subject a bit, but your comment brought it to mind.
That’s why I think the best case for Johnson to bat his way into the lineup is for him to at most split time at third base, unless Feliz gets traded at the deadline, which as you already pointed out earlier may be difficult to do unless a starting 3B job opens up on a contender and/or he hits really well in the first half.
It’s a moot point anyway if Johnson doesn’t continue produce offensively.
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