Bullpen Banter's Astros Preview and our Top 25 Prospects
by gatling on Mar 8, 2010 11:42 PM CST
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Hello Astros Fans! My name is Michael Herrick and I've been an SBN member of various sites for 5 years now. Those of you that frequent John Sickels minorleagueball.com will probably recognize me from running the Community Prospect list this year. I recently partnered with three other long time SBN members(JD Sussman, alskor, mrkupe) to start a website, Bullpen Banter.
About Us from our site:
The Bullpen Banter Team is dedicated to providing outstanding baseball analysis from various points of view. Our website hosts both a chat room and a forum so our readers can constantly interact with a knowledgeable and vibrant baseball community. Each writer represents a different area in the country which provides a unique ability to gauge the thoughts of both the mainstream media and the fans in the region. Additionally, we are always open to new ideas and voices, so feel free to submit a guest piece.
We are currently previewing each team by division, we are now working on the NL and AL Central. Our Astros preview is up, where we examine the outlook for 2010, the best and worst moves, and prospects to watch in 2010. We take a round table approach to topics giving us differing viewpoints on the same article.
Here is a peek at the Prospect to Watch section of the preview:
JD Sussman: When I look at the Astro's farm system, I love to take a look at pitchers who did well in Lancaster (A+). Lancaster is a hitters haven in the California league and we've seen non-prospects like Koby Clemens rake there. Starter turned reliever Fernando Abad pitched so well there that he was penciled in as a starter (again) when he got promoted to Corpus Christi. Baseball America has him sitting in the low 90s from the left side with a good change and curve. He is old, but could rise quickly.
Michael Herrick: Since JD stole my first choice here in Abad, I think I'll go with Tanner Bushue. He's more projection than results at this point, being a cold weather pitcher he just doesn't have the experience some of his warm weather counter parts do. He projects to add a few ticks to his fastball as he fills out his 6'4" frame and he'll need to work on his secondary stuff but in a year or two he could be the something special.
Al Skorupa: This is tough, since after the top three prospects the Astros have pretty much nothing (and I'm not sure the top three are even all that good). The rest of this system is filled with the kind of guys you find at the back end of every system in baseball. I might take the 20th best prospect from the Rangers, Rays, Indians and Red Sox before I'd take the 4th best Astros prospect. If I have to pick someone, I'll say C Koby Clemens might be underrated. Yes, he benefited a tremendous amount from playing in the Cal. League and in Lancaster... I still like his approach and think he made some real progress. Much like Alex Liddi and Tyson Gillies, its difficult to separate the progress from the park/league effects, but that doesn't mean there wasn't progress.
Stephen Kuperman: Okay, I'm going a little risky here, but OF T.J. Steele is a name to watch in the Astros system. He was a little old for Lancaster at 23, but he's got the raw tools to succeed at higher levels. The big question is whether or not Steele's going to have the plate discipline to turn those tools into meaningful production, but his 2009 campaign in Lancaster was encouraging. I'll totally admit that there's a very good chance that Steele will fall flat on his face. On the other hand, it's not like I'm going out on a limb here by taking Steele over most of the other names in the Astros system. The only other guy I'd look at is OF Jay Austin, another toolsy guy who is much younger than Steele but doesn't have his power upside.
We also have our Top 25 Prospects for 2010 posted with the rest of the Top 100 to follow over the next couple of weeks.
Here is a sample for Mike Stanton:
Notre Dame High School has produced its fair share of notable baseball players. The most famous include Cy Young winner Jack McDowell, 1968 first overall draft pick Tom Foli, and the general manager of the '92,'93, & '08 World Series champions, Pat Gillick. Giancarlo Cruz- "Michael" Stanton has the potential to be among those names with his combination of athleticism and elite power. Stanton is young but relatively polished for a former football star who didn't concentrate fully on baseball until being drafted by the fins 79th overall in 2007. Stanton has deposited 68 baseballs over the fence in first three seasons and is arguably the fourth or fifth best player today from his draft class.
Steve Kuperman: Grade A easy for me, No. 4 on my list currently. If he had played in the FSL the entire year nobody would be asking questions, as he managed to absolutely crush the ball in one of the worst hitters' parks in the minors while cutting his strikeouts substantially. The guy gets tons of praise for work ethic.
JD Sussman: I disagree with your point on Stanton's contact issues. While he has been great thus far, I foresee his contact issues and poor pitch recognition limiting him offensively. What keeps him ranked so highly is that he should have solid defensive value in both his arm and his range. For me, he has the highest bust rate of any player int he top 10. If those issues really hurt him, in a years time he could be pretty far down the list, despite his accomplishments at a young age. I have him slightly lower at 9.
Michael Herrick: I can understand you knocking Stanton down a few spots due to the contact/strikeout issues, JD. I know the High A stint is a SSS, but his K rate wasn't horrible there. I think as long as he's not rushed too far, too fast the plate discipline can improve some, at least into a somewhat manageable "less than 30% K rate" type of range. I guess I tend to see him as more of a .260 hitter in the bigs as opposed to something in the .230 range. That power is just such a valuable tool though, I really can't see him lower than 5.
Al Skorupa: Strikeouts a concern? Yes. Special bat despite that? Absolutely.
His 80 power is something that we can be fairly certain will come with him to the majors. He does enough other things well to still project as an offensive force despite some questions about his contact ability, patience and strikeouts.
Stanton is plenty athletic and a good fielder. He could very easily end up the best major leaguer out of the top 5 prospects, but I'm not ready to bet on that just yet.
So if you have a chance, stop by and let us know what you think. If you're interested in a guest writing spot, contact us and we will give you that opportunity.
Thanks for your time,
The Bullpen Banter Team
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Finally somebody who gives Koby a little credit
Thanks, Al.
Here’s what I don’t get: He led the California League in offensive production by a notable margin. It’s a hitter’s league, but that doesn’t change the fact that he out-hit all of his competitors. Are there just not any good hitting prospects in the Cal League? And before we chalk it up to his home park at Lancaster, let’s not forget that he also did a fantastic job in Away games (1.023 OPS, very similar to his home numbers).
He’s 23 years old, and it’s not like he was following on a terrible season. He wasn’t great in 2007 and 2008, but he certainly wasn’t bad, and was already showing improvement (.755 OPS in 2007, .792 in 2008). He’s always been good at taking his walks, and while he strikes a little more than you might like (around 25%), it’s not really that bad for a slugger.
I guess the main things hurting him are that he replayed both class A and class A+, and that he doesn’t have a clear defensive position. But he’s still only about a year older than most hitters at his level, and theoretically only a year away from the majors if he keeps hitting like this.
So what gives?
If Clemens could find a position I believe he’d be looked at a little more seriously, as is he’s a DH in a NL teams minor league system.
by Timothy De Block on Mar 9, 2010 7:15 AM CST up reply actions
If he can keep performing anywhere close to this well at the plate, he could play 1B or LF and be fine.
my take on Clemens playing 1st base...
is that the Astros want to find out, in AA, if Clemens is really the hitter that showed up in Lancaster. They are going to give Clemens an opportunity to concentrate on his offense, without the distraction of having to learn difficult defensive positions. (I got the impression that Heck recommended that Clemens should play 1st base in AA, which contrasted with Bennett’s statements that Clemens should learn to be a versatile utility-type player.) Another factor is that the outfield will be crowded in AA. If Clemens’ hitting progresses in AA, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros try to find out if Clemens can play other defensive positions adequately when he gets to AAA. But that’s just a guess.
The ironic thing about Koby...
is that he is just now developing in the past few years into being a solid hitter. Just imagine if he had went to college (Texas) and actually played at least three years there before coming into MLB? People would be looking at him with more promise than they do now…
"I've never gone into a game trying to win the Heisman Trophy; I go into a game trying to win." - Colt McCoy
True. The way some people talk, you would think Koby is a 26 year organizational player. He is only 23 years old. I recall an old thread at Baseball Think Factory where one of the commenters expressed surprise at Clemens’ age, saying that they thought he was older because it seemed like “he had been around forever.”
That first sentence
pretty well sums up my thoughts on Koby Clemens. He certainly got a boost from the league and park environments he played in last year, and I want to see how much actual improvement is there and how much was environmental noise. We should see that in AA. One thing to keep in mind though, if he plays 1B this year and hits relatively well he still may not get a lot of love from many of the “industry leaders” when it comes to prospects because of just how much a 1B has to hit to be valuable. If he can show the bat is real and play a more valuable position though, he could move up the list for quite a few people.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Thanks for commenting Orem
I feel kind of bad at the harsh treatment I gave the Astros and Royals the other day, to be honest (but I stand by it).
I kind of buy Clemens improving his defense some. I dont think the tools are that bad. I was listing him as more of a dark horse than a top prospect, but he does deserve some credit. Like you say, outperforming your contemporaries by an amount like that is impressive no matter the context. I like Clemens considerably less at 1B, I do have to say.
www.bullpenbanter.com
Oh there's a plan
you just have to look really hard….
I’m sad to see that no one mentioned that the Astros do in fact have 5 picks in the first 100 selections of this upcoming draft. I don’t get why people still say that organizations need to wipe the slate clean and re-tool, the Pirates, Royals have been doing this for years. Sure if you go about it the right way it’s a good efficient method, but let’s be honest this is the Astros. If they completely blew everything up it would just be more of the same criticism they get now.
Ed Wade while he has his faults does have a proven track record of selecting good major leaguers out of the drafts, and off the waiver wire. So there is a plan you just have to look past all the fangraph, BP, etc. articles and dig a little deeper.
by Timothy De Block on Mar 9, 2010 7:34 AM CST reply actions
Yes!
Nobody ever talks about revenue either when they advise selling off players in bunches. Somehow a team has to survive waiting for the gold at the end of the rainbow.
Thanks for all comments here
Glad to see we sparked some discussion. I did want to say though, I did cover the revenue issue here:
Michael Herrick: This is a team without a true identity. They have a few veteran pieces in place with big contracts but they aren’t a good enough team overall to be sporting three players 32 and over making $14.5+ million a year. With Oswalt and Berkman being home grown players they can’t trade them without hurting attendance and turning off the fan base, but without moving them the Astros can’t easily add pieces to help their next contending team.
In general though I think you’re right, people do often overlook the financial impact rebuilding has. However, if you have a plan and refrain from things like giving Brandon Lyon $15 million, you can save money here and there specifically for the lean times. The other side is if you’re rebuilding your payroll should be lower, thus lower revenue isn’t as big of an impact as when you have a high payroll and mediocre results.
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I 100% agree that rebuilding can lead to further rebuilding all too often
Just looking at this roster construction I think the best choice would be to break it up. Trading the key guys could restock the farm system AND free up money for next year’s great free agent class. You could really make some noise. Right now this is a terrible flawed roster. The two highest paid players on the roster (taking up a huge portion of the total payroll) are both 34 year old bat only players who both belong at 1B. When I talk about cleaning out the roster I’m really saying get rid of Berkman and Lee. They’re pretty clearly not going to constitute the core of a championship caliber team at this point. I know this is harder said than done – but I don’t think how hard they are to move should count as a positive for Ed Wade. Get rid of Berkman while you can still get something for him. Get rid of Lee before he’s completely done (might be already, I know). Hold on to Oswalt. Stop giving mediocre players better deals than they deserve in the meantime.
I’m well aware of the Drayton Moore situation (& I follow Richard Justice on twitter!). I don’t think its a valid excuse for whats going on here. Some of these signings have been slapping a band aid on a broken leg. All those do is make the situation worse and extend your misery.
www.bullpenbanter.com
If you follow the Astros at all, you know that Oswalt, Lee, and Berkman all have no trade clauses. Lee is not tradeable (assuming a deal is possible) until the 2011 season. Many Astros’ fans agree with McLane that they would like to see Berkman remain an Astros throughout his career, similar to Bagwell and Biggio.
If you follow the Astros at all, you know that Oswalt, Lee, and Berkman all have no trade clauses.
Fair point. Do we know they would reject any trade? They might be pretty happy to leave following a 74 win season.
Many Astros’ fans agree with McLane that they would like to see Berkman remain an Astros throughout his career, similar to Bagwell and Biggio.
They should be more concerned with winning.
www.bullpenbanter.com
All three have said at various times that they don’t want to be traded. Ed Wade publicly stated last year that Carlos Lee will not waive his no trade clause (which makes you think that the Astros must have asked him…).
In the end, baseball is in the business of entertainment. Some fans want Berkman on the team the same way they want to go see a Robert DeNiro film. I don’t presume to tell other fans whether they should or shouldn’t be more concerned about winning. Since winning affects revenues in the long run, it is the team management responsibility to be concerned about winning, though.
Richard Justice isn’t the best source for Astros analysis, he’s a bit of a flip flopper and isn’t very liked by a good portion of Astro fans. His writing is typically that of “what can get me the most readership?”
Berkman and Oswalt will probably end their career in Houston as a PR move and because that’s how Drayton operates. If you compare their contracts to their production, the production value is right at or below their contract, via FanGraphs.
The problem has been the minor league system which has produce very few quality major leaguers. Since Ed Wade has taken over their has been an emphasis on getting the farm system back in shape, while still remaining competitive. Is it the most efficient method, probably not but their is some optimism to be had especially since Castro a 2008 selection is knocking on the door, Lyles is continuing to develop and may be in AA this year, and Mier by all accounts looks better than advertised.
by Timothy De Block on Mar 10, 2010 7:35 AM CST up reply actions
I was just pointing to Justice as a big Ed Wade apologist. He constantly blames Drayton for handcuffing Wade.
Berkman and Oswalt will probably end their career in Houston as a PR move and because that’s how Drayton operates.
If true, I think I’m justified criticizing the organization for this… no?
If you compare their contracts to their production, the production value is right at or below their contract, via FanGraphs.
Carlos Lee was paid $18.5mm in 2009 and produced $11.3mm in value.
Its true (or close enough) for Oswalt and Berkman, though. At 34 years old the days of Berkman providing value could very easily be over. My major problem was a team tying up $33mm of a $100mm payroll in two 34 year olds with negative defensive value. That’s not a smart way to build a team.
Since Ed Wade has taken over their has been an emphasis on getting the farm system back in shape, while still remaining competitive
Despite this, the system only goes three deep in decent prospects and those top three don’t really project as impact players. The only player to make one of the major prospect lists’ top 50 is Jason Castro at BA’s #41. BP ranked the Houston system as 28th best and BA had them dead last. Even if we rank the systems just on their top three prospects, this system is finishing near the bottom in my opinion…
I was criticized for claiming there was no plan. If this is indeed the plan, that’s still an indictment of Ed Wade and Drayton McLane.
www.bullpenbanter.com
The value comment was directed to Berkman and Oswalt, not Lee, lee was not included in the same paragraph. And no, your criticism of the organization for wanting to keep Berkman and Oswalt through the end of their contracts is not justified. Many people fail to remember that this club was in contention around the all-star break this past season and up to Hurrican Ike the previous season. This past year was due to bad seasons from Berkman and Oswalt, yeah poor depth and mediocre 3rd base and other positions too, but you can argue if Oswalt and Berkman had avg seasons we could have been in the mix. Our division is the hardest to compete in. So, if we can compete and keep the two biggest players fans love…WHY NOT? As far as citing this farm system isn’t improving based our rankings and only have 3 in the top 100, big deal, before Ed Wady we had 1, JR Towles, who is having a great spring so far, You can’t argue that this isn’t improvement because it obviously is, we have other prospects who people are weary of they don’t know if it was just Lancaster or not like Jonothan Gaston. There is lots of talent in the lower minors. One or Two drafts doesn’t vault you out of a solid last place farm system into the top 10.
Hardball Times ranked the Astros farm at 23rd or 24th if I recall.
But dueling over lists is just B.S. The margin of error has to be sufficient to make it difficult to tell the difference betwen 20th and 28th. The main point is that it will take time for the Astros to rebuild the farm, and in the meantime Wade will try to keep the big league team moderately competitive so that it is watchable for fans and holds out some hope of getting into contention if the stars align. In the meantime, he is consciously avoiding taking on serious long term committments. In 2012 or so, the Astros will be less encumbered, hopefully will have a few prospects making it to the big leagues, and will have available payroll room for free agents. That sounds like a reasonable plan to me.
IMO, the main damage to the Astros came from a disastrous offseason before 2007, when Woody Williams and Carlos Lee were signed to multi-year contracts, four Type A free agents were allowed to leave without offering arbitration, Astros’ pitching prospect were sent to Colorado for Jason Jennings, and the Astros decided to make that year a “lost draft.” None of that occurred on Wade’s watch. Instead Wade has the role of cleaning up the mess.
Carlos Lee was paid $18.5mm in 2009 and produced $11.3mm in value.
Hence why I left him out of the discussion, I was specifically talking about Oswalt and Berkman. If you look around at some of the comments and discussions here you’ll find that most if not all of us have heavily criticized the Lee contract.
Regarding the farm system it’s only been 2 drafts so to have 3 legit prospects in 2 years is a step forward from having 1 legit prospects in the 4 years prior to 2008. I’m not saying the Astros are taking big steps forward, I’m not necessarily saying I agree with the method (i heavily criticized them not moving Tejada and Hawkins at the trade deadline) but there is a method to their madness and some positives can be found.
by Timothy De Block on Mar 10, 2010 12:26 PM CST up reply actions
And you are justified in criticizing the organization, a lot of us do that here =)
by Timothy De Block on Mar 10, 2010 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
You've definitely made some good points and I appreciate you discussing it reasonably and not taking too much offense.
I hope I explained a little better where I was coming from with my comments. Thanks for taking a look and I hope you guys check out the website again in the future
www.bullpenbanter.com
Thanks for the comment
It’s great the Astros have those 5 picks in the draft and while Ed Wade has a good draft record, he has to really hit on them since Drayton McLane doesn’t like to go overslot against the commissioner’s office for draft picks. This is my main problem with the Astros and more specifically the Brandon Lyon signing. That money they gave to Lyon could have benefited them so much more going to 5-8 overslot draftees and adding depth and potential impact talent to the farm system. You mention the Pirates here, but the draft plan they enacted last year is something the Astros should be following like a blueprint. Same thing with the Pedro Feliz signing, yeah he should be worth a bit more than a Blum/Keppinger platoon but the money he got could have added 3 impact prospects to the system. If the Astros reverse their stance on going overslot the draft picks this year could be huge for the team.
Hope you check out some of the other areas of the site, like our Top 50 prospects list and some of our feature articles.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I'm probably going to come off snarky here but
Really?
You want a team to follow the blue print of the Pirates, an unproven plan that was just put in place last year.
I’m all for spending a little more in the draft but the money allotted to Feliz and Lyon was going to be spent in free agency regardless. Several of us here had our own wish lists regarding who the Astros should sign, and how to best use that money I believe some even wanted it invested in the draft. The Astros have begun to go over slot recently, not by a huge amount, our own Dave Coleman posted this last June.
My biggest gripe were the words “no plan” which to me tells me people are not taking the time to get accurate information. It’s the same regurgitated criticisms too, Ed Wade is horrible, the farm systems sucks, the drafting sucks, etc.. A lot of us are not all that happy about the plan, but their is reason for optimism that the plan could work. The Astros have three legit prospects that have jumped to the head of the class in Castro, Lyles, and Mier. Hunter Pence was the last legit prospect to come through the system and he was drafted in 2004. And while the criticism for some of Wades signings is fair, none of the contracts hamper the team in the future and for the most part are positioned to end when the Oswalt, Berkman and Lee contracts come off the books.
This went on a lot longer than I expected, and I think I’ve homered enough about the Astros, but I do appreciate that you’ve taken the time to respond to some of our comments.
by Timothy De Block on Mar 9, 2010 1:02 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, really
You say the plan is unproven, but really it’s not as the large market teams like Boston and the Yankees have done this type of thing for awhile, drafting impact talent that slides due to bonus demands and going overslot to sign them. The Pirates are the first small market team to enact this on such a large scale, as other small market teams will go for an overslot player or two here and there. Neal Huntington came out and said this is what we’re going to do and they added multiple impact arms to their system in the draft last year in doing so. It’s a plan that more small market teams should try.
Why did that money have to be spent in free agency? The Astros have a decent payroll already so that’s not an issue, as far as teams being “forced” to spend revenue sharing money on payroll recently. They didn’t spend enough to make them a serious contender, but enough to say they spent money. Would the fan base have been less satisfied with the Astros not spending that money on stopgap players if they came out and said we’re going to invest in the draft and in Latin America and other international arenas? I’m honestly asking, because I know if I were a fan I’d much rather hear that than we had to spend money somewhere, so we spent it on medicore vets that won’t be around to help the next time we contend. Especially with the Astros holding so many high picks in the upcoming draft, this was a perfect time to say we’re not going to spend money just to spend money, we’re going to wisely allocate these funds into helping construct the next true contending team(s) for this franchise.
Thanks for the polite response as well, I know some people wouldn’t be as nice when an outsider makes less than positive comments about their team. I enjoy the discussion we’ve been able to generate on the SBN team sites like this, but then I could talk baseball in most any form just about any day of the week.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I see where your coming from with the extra payroll room could be re-allocated to spend on the draft…but thats not how Drayton works. Drayton gave his payroll and said this is what you have, spend it…If he didn’t give 5mil a year to Lyon, do you really think that 5 mil is gonna go to draft expenses? Nope, those are two completely different budgets in Draytons mind. We talked about this throughout the offseason.
I think the Astros’ fan base would be dissatisfied if the Astros had done nothing to improve the team during free agency. Personally, I would much prefer watching a .500 team than becoming a depressed Pirates’ or Royals’ fan, wondering when we will lose 100 games . I may not agree with all of the Astros’ off-season player decisions, but I would have been more unhappy if they had done nothing.
I'm not ready to say that widespread spending over slot...
is a successful or sound strategy. I’ve criticized McLane in the past for not spending over slot…but my concern has been the instances where he wouldn’t spend a couple of hundred thousand over slot to land a Drew Stubbs or Eibner (and also my irritation with the way that McLane shows such deference to Selig). But I’m not convinced that spending millions over slot on draftees is cost effective. Yes, the Red Sox and Yankees do it, but they have such huge budgets that they can cover up the mistakes. The Red Sox and Yankees don’t engage in this strategy because it’s cost effective; they do it because their strategy is to exploit loopholes where they hold a comparative advantage (money).
Ok
Sure, every team can’t do it every year, but I do think that the $15 million spent over the next three years on Brandon Lyon for example could bring much more value to the team if it was spread over 20 players in both the draft and IFA market in 2010-2012. Lyon has one season out of the last six where he was worth more than 1 WAR according to fangraphs.com, but let’s say he matches his career high and averages 1.5 WAR a year for this contract. That’s only 4.5 WAR for the three years and $15 million-I’d certainly rather take my chances on producing that same 4.5 WAR out of 20+ players you could sign with that same money.
Above another poster said that McLane dictated that money had to be spent on FA’s and not able to be put into draft budget. My position is that’s part of Ed Wade’s job, to convince McLane the money would be better spent in other areas than being spent on middle of the road free agents. I know you said that you’d rather they spend the money on free agents than not, saying you’d rather not be wondering when the team will lose 100 games. Well…they lost what, 88 games last year? Do those 12 games really matter that much to you? Obviously if we were talking about 12 games being the difference between the playoffs and sitting home it makes a difference, but really what does 4th or 5th place mean compared to 6th place? I say this as an A’s fan, so I do have some experience with seeing a team waste money on vets that don’t do anything(Giambi, OCab) when it would be better served to spend it elsewhere. I can respect the difference of opinion, but having seen it happen to my team, I’d prefer it if they went the other route. To each their own though.
Thanks for the response.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Al Skorupa is an idiot
And his favorite team is most likely the Cubs.
I would debate his point but from his initial “analysis” I am guessing he couldn’t name 5 players on the Astros roster. That preview he wrote is quite shameful pertaining to content and effort. That would be the same as me starting a website about movie reviews and writing only “Avatar Sucks” as my article.
Step your game up. Nice review though Gatling.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
Well
thanks for the kind words on my part of the writeup, but I have to say Al most definitely isn’t an idiot, nor is he a Cubs fan(I’m not sure which would be a worse insult there). I’ll let him defend his own work though, that’s not really my place.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I'd be happy to answer specific criticisms if you'd like.
In the meantime if you read my Cubs review I think you’ll find I’m anything but a fan of the Cubs.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
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