TCB's official Eff-you to Ed Wade haters
I have spent this offseason correcting, refuting and arguing various critiques of Astros GM Ed Wade this offseason. I’m tired of it. I’ve done it here, at BtB, FanGraphs and via Twitter. Too much of my free time has been spent in this endeavor.
I have not expended this much effort because I’m a huge Ed Wade proponent (I think I'm more like Ed Wade’s saber-Switzerland). I am, however, a proponent of objectivity, factual correctness, and a believer in the importance of context in the evaluation of just about anything. Those are exactly the values that have made me a proponent of sabermetics.
None of those three have been given their due when Ed Wade has been mentioned in sabermetric circles this offseason. Dave Cameron, who really got the vitriol started this offseason, called it a bad joke. It is. It really, really is. Cameron was also a proponent of stopping the bad joke. That has not happened.
I can’t really blame people, either. What is easier than dumping on a guy with legendary stereotypes that are widely derided in the saber-community? The stories write themselves. What these canned stories don’t do is present a critique of Ed Wade in an objective fashion, either flirt or cross the line into presenting false information by either omitting or selecting certain stats/instances to cite, and generally never couch Ed Wade’s tenure as Astros GM in the context of the Astros franchise circa-September 2007 or the fact that Drayton McLane has a "champion’s" spirit.
Today, I’d like to do just that. In the process, I truly hope that this becomes the official "Eff-You" post to those who have, or will, write the "Ed Wade is total moron"-memed posts. I want to emphasize that I want this to be an "Eff-You" post. What originally attracted to me to sabermetrics was the fact that it values rationality, objectivity, contextualizing events, and that its common currency is facts. This "Eff-You" post addresses a specific instance of saber-writers abandoning those values in an effort to do…I don’t know what actually. I welcome anyone, and everyone, to refute any point I am about to make—I would love to open up that line of dialogue.
Ed Wade came to Houston in a very auspicious time for the Astros franchise. Tim Purpura was being canned in a year that saw him sign Carlos Lee to a 6yr/$100 million contract, Woody Williams to a 2yr/$12.5 million contract (both Type-A free agents), not re-sign Andy Pettitte, compensate by trading away two promising young pitchers and Willy Taveras for Jason Jennings and then not sign a draft pick in the first four rounds of the draft. It was not a good year for the Astros. Thus, Ed Wade inherited a monstrously bloated contract in Woody Williams and a barren farm system that hadn’t been retooled in years.
Ed Wade didn’t just have a ledger sheet full of liabilities to deal with. He also had Drayton McLane handing down the following mandate: take a team with the worst farm system in the business and the oldest lineup and make it both a contender at the big league level and rebuild the minors. There Ed Wade stood, one day into the job with a fixed payroll of over $70 million (Purpura handed out no-trade clauses like they were going out of style), no room for losing draft picks, no grade A prospects to either trade or rely on and a boss who didn’t care what the facts were.
We know what Wade has done in his tenure as the Astros GM. We know that he made something out of nothing with Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins, and pulled Alberto Arias and Jeff Fulchino out of AAAA purgatory as well. We also know that Oscar Villarreal, Kazuo Matsui, and Brandon Lyon were/are/will be overpaid for their production. We know that Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz, and Brian Moehler were mainstays in the Astros rotation in 2009. We know that both Moehler and Jason Michaels will continue to have major league jobs, and make nearly $4 million between the two of them (Moehler had a sneaky little vesting option worth $3 million).
Some of that is inexplicable in today's world; a world enlightened by the principles of replacement level, advanced metrics and basic economic theory that has been in place for over a hundred years. For signings like Lyon, Matsui, Villarreal, Moehler and Michaels, Wade should draw criticism.
Let’s be very clear about what is being criticized. These writers should keep in mind that the most any of those players listed have ever made in a single season is $5.5 million. Also, the combined salary for Moehler, Lyon, Blum, Matsui and Michaels is $15 million, or $3 million per player. That $15 million will likely be spent between five players who will probably net around 1.8-2.5 WAR in 2010 is not something to applaud. But is spending $7.5 million more than two wins are worth enough to generate such ardent criticism?
The saber-snark surrounding those signings/deals annoys me (so do the signings themselves), but it’s not what is prompting this post. If it had just stayed at the FJM-snark-level, I wouldn’t even be annoyed. It has gone far past that, though. This offseason, saber-writers have continued to crucify Wade for not understanding the hopeless of the Astros situation at the big league level because win/revenue curves are not linear; blamed Wade for having a grossly high pay roll for the value it generates; and deride Wade for presiding over a team with a terrible farm system, or not having done enough to improve it in his tenure.
That is what is prompting this post, and I could probably elaborate, but I won’t. At this point, I’d like to just say: stop.
Let’s all just step back from the positioned of presumed righteousness. The critiques of Wade seem to all suffer from same logical fallacy of presuming what they set out to prove is true. We’re bloggers. Yes, some of us are incredibly smart, charming and have actual contact with the front offices of the teams we cover. However, I, as an Astros blogger, highly doubt that any of us have actually been flies on the wall of Wade’s office. Most of us don’t really know what we’re talking about when we hash, re-hash, and then re-hash again the tired and worn out critiques of Wade. No one really knows what his marching orders are. Nor does anyone really seem to be concerned about couching a critique of Wade with the relevant factors that likely influence his decision-making and organizational management.
Nowhere have I seen a disclaimer about the damage the Purpura years did to the franchise, or for that matter, the effects of Hunsicker’s willingness to mortgage part of the Astros future to win in 2004. Somehow, all of this is just glossed over—especially Hunsicker. What is never glossed over are a handful of bad, but not franchise busting/totally unreasonable, contracts that Ed Wade has given to older, non-saber darlings to in the last two years.
What is also never discussed is the fact that Ed Wade probably doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room on the whole rebuilding front (which apparently, in common saber-parlance, now means blowing up the big league franchise for prospects…a strategy that time and time again has proved successful…where?). It is easy to forget that Drayton McLane effectively ran Gerry Hunsicker out of town if you are not a fan of the team that got hosed in that process. Let’s remember that Hunsicker was run out of town because Drayton McLane believed he knew best. Hunsicker fought back and was promptly shown the door. In the years that have passed, there is no indication that McLane has relented from his hands-on approach to his team.
There also is little or no credit given to the fact that Wade hired Bobby Heck and then convinced McLane to actually take the draft seriously (this is an amazing accomplishment). The result of these efforts has seen the Astros net two A- prospects and slew of B+/B prospects in just two drafts. Further, saber-snarks also overlook the fact that in 2010 the Astros will have a bounty of first round picks.
I have spent an untold number of hours of my life reading, re-reading, and studying sabermetric publications. I have a degree in economics, so I’m also certifiably trained in this kind of thinking. I consider myself to be a "believer." When it comes to Ed Wade, where has the objectivity gone? If we really get down to brass tacks and evaluate Wade in the context of his tenure as the Astros GM—the Pupura years, Drayton McLane, etc.—what has he really done that makes him such a laughable GM? By my count it has been to spend probably a total of $40 million over five years on seven players that, on the whole, will probably slightly underperform their value. And that’s only if we consider bad contracts.
Now, I have only been in saber circles for about four years now, so I’m a noob of sorts, but I’m pretty sure that is not the description of the worst GM in baseball. When Ed Wade’s collective body of work—with the Astros—is taken into account, it’s not a stretch that he probably grades as average. Yet, somehow, he is the boogeyman.
Ed Wade, I know, had a reputation coming from Philly. But, Ed Wade is not the general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies anymore. He is the general manager of the Houston Astros; a franchise that has entire history totally independent of Wade’s hiring. Is he a great GM? No. Is he a bad GM? Also no.
So how then do we explain the Ed Wade derision this offseason? My informed and logical opinion is that Wade has been the target of pernicious stereotypes that have been bolstered by flawed assumptions, evidence, and arguments by so called guardians of saber-truth. As such, the question I have to pose would have to be: Is Wade really a bad GM or have those same guardians of saber-truth missed their mark?
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Comments
People enjoy kicking the people who are down…Most of the people just want to produce an article and get somebody reading and ignore doing the research to cover the situation. Instead, take the current deal and analyze just that, because its quick, easy, and goes with current feeling of readers. We have looked at it many times, there is help on the horizon, we have lots of high floor prospects that will be ready to go in the next few years, just in time for the big, bad contracts to come off the books and Ed Wade can actually have wiggle room to make better deals with better players…thats when we can actually evaluate Ed Wade, and i have a feeling the majority of these writers will be singing a different tune. Good rant by the way.
I totally agree...
I think that people want to write him off because of his reputation in Philly. I think that the people who are still scrutinizing him for that are being unfair. I feel as if two years isn’t enough to start from the ground and reach the top, Rome wasn’t built in two years. Are the Astros as great as Rome? Absolutely.
NocturnalGamingSociety.org -- "The Real Gamers Come Out At Night"
Ed Wade is no Theo Epstein. I agree with that. But Ed Wade really isn’t much different from a lot of other GMs, like Jim Hendry, who don’t get nearly the grief that Wade does. (Of course, Hendry has a budget about $30 million higher, too.) The Hendry comparison came to mind when I read this quote from Hendry:
But I’m always going to be a scouting guy first. You can skew statistics to frame it the way you like it. "Some statistics that a lot of people think are always vital to making decisions, they should be a part of the equation, but not the be-all, end-all. … You factor a lot of stuff in, not just ‘Oh gee, that guy has a high or low on-base percentage.’ "
That sounds like something Ed Wade could have said. (He makes no secret of his preference for scouting, while paying lip service to using statistics.) But if Wade had said it, he would be skewered in the blogosphere. In the same article, Hendry gave this quote about his offseason priorities:
Cubs scouts like what Byrd and Nady can bring to the offense, and their personalities were also a factor because improving team chemistry was a priority.
We know Wade puts a high priority on acquiring clubhouse players…but if he had said this, Dave Cameron would have had a field day holding him up for ridicule.
Really Hendry and Wade are quite similar in their propensity to sign gritty utility infielders and overvalue relief pitchers. Wade took a lot of crap for signing Lyon, but did anyone notice that Hendry put a high priority on signing relief pitcher John Grabow to a 2 year contract? How about overpaying Marlon Byrd for a career year in a pinball machine ballpark in Arlington? Or trading for Carlos Silva? I don’t mean to make this a comment all about Hendry….I’m just pointing out that Hendry has some of the same flaws as Wade, but doesn’t get nearly the grief from the sabermetric community. And, really, the same comparison could be drawn with Reagins of the Angels or Omar Minaya of the Mets. (Reagins, Minaya, and Hendry have all made bigger dollar goofs than Wade, but they have bigger budgets which cover the mistakes.)
This post is great.
I’ve only got one quibble—was not resigning Andy really such a bad move? I guess in the sense that it could have prevented the JJ/WW debacles it was, but he was only really good for about a season and a half while here, and he was 34 years old, and the Astros couldn’t afford a bidding war with New York. The Yankees gave him what—32 million, for two years of league average pitching? NY can afford that, Houston not so much.
Also, I’m glad someone else remembers that Hunsicker wasn’t blameless, especially regarding the farm system. He was still a good GM, but his string of drafts from about 2000-2004 was pretty awful(esp. 2002). Purp made some awful moves on his own(I’d forgotten just how bad WW’s contract was), but he inherited a pretty tough situation too. Though as Wade has (hopefully—there’s still no way to really tell the quality of the 08/09 drafts) shown, drafting well is the key to getting out of that, and that was the one thing Purp couldn’t do.
Hey, I remembered my username and password! That puts me one-up on MG (Mk II)!
As I recall Pettite
Was that it was $17 million in guaranteed money when the buyout of his second year option was factored. I recall that he was going to stay in Houston for lees, he just wanted a second year option.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 3, 2010 8:21 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Still thought an arbitration offer should've happened though.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
We've discussed and praised (or at least defended) Ed Wade in recent threads
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2010/2/27/1328498/ed-wade-gets-trashed-by-a-writer#comments
Ed Wade was handed a mess. He cannot turn a farm system around in three years. He and Heck are building a franchise and a solid Worldwide scouting system. Astros are in a bad place now but the future looks promising.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Mar 3, 2010 8:47 PM CST reply actions
Definitely
I hope this didn’t come across as my trying to take credit for coming up with this defense/idea. I just wanted to solidify our objections in one concrete, more public forum.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 3, 2010 11:22 PM CST up reply actions
True
Which makes Ed Wade ahead of the curve…or at least just on the right part of the curve.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Mar 3, 2010 10:48 PM CST up reply actions
Great post
Sadly, the people who needs to read this—KLaw, the BPro staff, etc.—probably won’t. And if they did, they’d never admit that they’re at best being intellectually dishonest, and at worst petty. KLaw, in particular, seems to have some sort of axe to grind with Wade.
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
I think it was over at the Royals site
I was just reading today some Wade is a joke type stuff.
Bring on interleague!
Ed Wade may not be the best
But I’d take him over Dayton Moore any day. Royals fans should not be throwing stones when it comes to GMs.
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
The problem I have with Ed Wade is that
people are seeing competency in his drafts and throwing praise and using it as the backbone for his continued support instead of accepting it for what it is. Heck has done a decent job with the draft, but nothing absolutely outstanding. A portion of this is a function of draft budget, but as the GM, Wade can vary the way the team will spend their overall payroll. Before people throwh out the adage that the team is unwilling to go over slot, lets not forget that the Astros have gone over slot in both of the last 2 drafts. They have not spent huge amounts over slot, but the option is available. That leads to the observation that it is more a budgetary than philosophical problem.
Wade adn heck’s drafts have been players about where they should be (outside of the Castro/Smoak debate). There has no major surprises, not late round triumphs. They have been very youth orientated and those players have advanced as much due to the lack of opposition from others in the system as due to general talent. The fact that the drafts have been a huge leap forward compared to the Astros recent past should not be the measuring stick. The measuring stick should be the rest of the league.
To many people are becoming excited with the fact that these young guys are all dominating the Astros prospect rankings. They should be. The Astros farm system was that pathetic. Those players should be taking over the prospect rankings just due to the fact that they are true top 3 round talent. The problem is each spot in teams top 10’s do not equate equal value or even close to equal value team to team. The Astros have been and unfortunately still are on the bottom of these talent lists. Even with the last few drafts and very little talent graduating the Astros have not made progress major progress with median level of the league.
Am I upset with Wade and Heck concerning the draft? No. They are doing an adequate job. If he continues at this pace the minors will be slowly rebuilt but without a trade there is little chance to see it make leaps and bounds. Does that make up for the fact there has been little progress in churning the MLB roster or increasing the team win total and expected win total? No.
Wade accepted a job in a bad situation. Even with understanding the parameters he accepted the job with does not absolve him from the fact that he has not come close to succeeding in many of those facets. A lot of the financial parameters have changed as well since assumed command and those have further handcuffed his decisions. I don’t think him as a horrible GM in the Dayton Moore or Bill Bavasi mold, but there is little hope that he will be considered in the top 3rd of the league.
I have a bad feeling Wade is going to be remembered more as the as a fall guy instead of the guy that started the rebuilding process. He is going to be the guy that saw Berkaman and Oswalt go on his watch. It is not fault that those 2 outcomes are becoming more and more likely, but in the fans perception it will be.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Rany J
I’m somewhat neutral on Ed Wade, and this is a good article.
I was pretty amazed to read this Tweet from Rany Jazayerli, who I consider to be a great writer and good analyst, today:
“I disagree with Tim – I’d much rather have Dayton Moore than Ed Wade. As for the other 28 GMs…let me get back to you. ”http://bit.ly/bg7arj" target="_blank">http://bit.ly/bg7arj"

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