Ten prospects who could see MLB action in 2010

Opening day is a week away, so perhaps it's a good time for an overview of which prospects in the minor league system have a chance to make an impact with the big league club this season.  I'm excluding players likely to be on the opening day roster, such as J.R. Towles and Tommy Manzella, as well as non-prospects, which I will define as any player who is age 26 or older.

Later on, I will post a more speculative list of prospects who might make an impact in 2011.

So without further ado, let's take a look at the farm system Baseball America calls the worst in baseball, and we like to think of as (or at least wish it was) the "most underrated".

The (Nearly) Sure Things

1.  Jason Castro (22, C, AAA).  Widely considered the organization's top prospect, Castro is already a big league-ready defensive backstop, and it's been said that he has a chance to be the best defensive catcher in the majors.  He's certainly demonstrated it this Spring, gunning down baserunners with wanton glee (okay, I made up the "wanton glee" part).  The Stanford product has a high-contact line drive bat and at least average patience, so while there are questions about his power, he should get on base at a steady clip in the majors.  With the strong spring of former top prospect J.R. Towles, Castro is likely to start the season at AAA, but don't be surprised to see the front office display a quick trigger and call him up if Towles struggles.  Otherwise, expect to see him come up sometime around mid-season, as the team will want to preserve his ML service time and delay potential super two eligibility.

2.  Samuel Gervacio (25, RP, AAA/MLB).  Also known as "slingin' Sammy", the first thing you notice about Gervacio is his strange sidearm delivery, as well as the unusual, superstitious rituals he incorporates into his windup.  He might be a little strange on the mound, but it seems to serve him well: The young right-hander was called up for a cup of coffee in late 2009, and was lights out in 21 innings, posting a 2.14 ERA and a sparkling 3.13 K/BB ratio.  There is some justified concern about his ability to get lefties out, as his FIP against left-handed batters was 4.21 in the minors, as compared 2.23 for righties.  If he can get those problems worked out, however, he could have closer potential down the road.  Gervacio still has a legitimate chance to make the opening day big league roster, particularly now that Alberto Arias is likely headed to the Disabled List, but since it's not a sure thing, I'm including him on this list.  If he doesn't make the big club, he will likely head to AAA Round Rock where he should pitch in late inning relief.  He would then be one of the top candidates for a call-up if there was an injury in the bullpen.

3. Wesley Wright (24, SP/RP, AAA).  While his 100 major league innings would tend to disqualify Wright as a prospect, I'll include him anyway, because he is in the process of being converted to a starter in the minor leagues, and because he is young enough that he would otherwise qualify.  While Wright has not pitched particularly well in the majors, he's flashed his potential with high strikeout rates and good velocity for a left-hander.  If he can correct his control problems (5.3 career BB/9 in the majors), he could be a rotation candidate in the future.  Depending on his performance this year at Round Rock, he could also be called up this season in the event of an injury in the starting rotation or even the bullpen.

The Maybe-Possiblies

4. Chris Johnson (25, 3B, AAA).  After surprising a lot of people with a monster Spring (.739 SLG), some--including myself--have raised the question of whether Johnson should start the year with the big league club.  The answer is no.  There are a number of obstacles to making such a decision, including roster space and the presence of Pedro Feliz at third base.  But most importantly, Johnson only has a career .726 OPS in the minor leagues, born on poor contact skills and an impatient approach at the plate, as well as historically below average power.  He clearly does have the raw potential to really mash, and his power has improved to above average in the past couple of years, but he still needs to demonstrate more slugging more consistently at Round Rock before getting the call to the bigs.  There are also questions about his defense at the hot corner.  Still, the flashes of brilliance he's shown this Spring have many of us more optimistic than before about his chances of becoming an impact player at the big league level someday, and with continued hitting at AAA, it's quite possible he could be called up sometime later in the year, perhaps in the event of an injury to Pedro Feliz or one of the utility men.

5. Fernando Abad (24, SP/RP, AA/AAA).  One of my favorite sleeper prospects in the organization, Abad apparently so impressed pitching coach Brad Arnsberg this Spring that Ed Wade had to "wrestle" him away back to the minors.  It's a good thing, too, because Abad has only pitched 14 innings above Class A--Advanced, and is in the process of being converted to a starting pitcher, where his talents will be more valuable.  Abad is a "pitchability" lefty, and he's somehow managed to strike out almost ten batters per nine innings over his four season career as a minor league reliever despite only having a high-80s MPH fastball.  He also keeps the walks down with impeccable control.  While he still needs to prove himself as a starting pitcher, as well as at the higher levels of the minors, a strong performance in the first half of the year could vault him up among the first starters to be called up in the event of an injury in the MLB starting rotation.

6.  Wladimir Sutil (25, SS, AAA).  With serious questions about his bat due to truly awful power, Wladimir Sutil is not exactly a hot prospect.  Nevertheless, his quality defense at shortstop and his elite contact skills (8.9% strikeout rate at AA Corpus Christi in 2009) may make him a candidate to be called upon to play shortstop if Tommy Manzella flounders or is injured this season.  Since he is likely behind Edwin Maysonet on the depth chart, it is more likely that he will spend the entire season at Class AAA Round Rock.

7. Chia-Jen Lo (24, RP, AAA).  While I wasn't impressed with what I saw from him this Spring (he displayed significant control problems), prospect analysts seem to be higher on him, and his arm is certainly electric, with high heat and movement.  Despite control problems, Lo has managed to get lots of strikeouts in the minors and has been effective as a reliever.  Serious bullpen damage at the big league level coupled with some improvement in command could result in a mid-season callup for Lo.

Potential September Callups

8. Brian Bogusevic (25, OF, AAA).  I debated putting Bogusevic in the last category, but the team just has too much outfield depth for him to have much of a shot at reaching the big club before September, barring a truly stunning first half.  Bogusevic is still viewed as a work in progress due to having been converted from pitcher to outfielder not long ago, so he could surprise some people with a good 2010 season, as his tools are strong.  If he bats well, he could be someone to keep an eye on toward the end of the year.

9. Henry Villar (22, RP, A+/AA).  With a fastball which sits around 90 MPH, Villar isn't your typical late-inning reliever, but like Abad, he relies upon several solid pitches and outstanding control to achieve great results.  Unlike Abad, he's right handed, so that reduces his value a little by comparison, but it's hard to argue with the dominance he's displayed at every level since entering the organization.  Since he was so good and was old for his level last year, he will likely start the season at Class AA, which (combined with a great Spring and high praise from Brad Arnsberg) may make him a candidate for a late-season callup to bolster the bullpen.

10. Koby Clemens (23, 1B/C, AA).  After a monster 2009 season in which he led the hitter-friendly California League (and every other league in the minors, except the Mexican League) in OPS, Koby Clemens raised his stock considerably as a prospect.  Unfortunately, his lack of a defensive position has caused him to be moved from third base to catcher and finally to first base, which is where he will play at Class AA Corpus Christi this season in the hope that his 2009 at the plate wasn't a fluke.  To solidify his status as a true prospect, he needs to prove that his power is real; he's already patient at the plate, though his contact skills could use a little improvement.  (He may never again bat .300, as his .345 average in 2009 was the product of a sky-high .412 BABIP.)  If he has a strong season, he could advance to AAA before the end of the year and possibly get a cup of coffee in September.

...and one more: T.J. Steele (23, OF, AA).  Normally a guy with only 378 professional plate appearances and not a lick of experience above Class A--Advanced wouldn't have a chance of seeing any action with the big club, even in September, but Steele has gotten a surprising amount of run this Spring and has acquitted himself well.  In addition to that, it's been well-documented that the organization is very high on him as a five-tool prospect.  There doesn't appear to be room in the outfield for him, especially if the team views him as a future everyday player, but I still think there's enough evidence here to suggest that he could see some action in September.  He'll need to demonstrate the ability to remain healthy this year, as well as showing a little more patience at the plate.

---

Any glaring omissions?  Fire away in the comments!