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Friday Astros Minor Thoughts

Throw another interesting kink in the minor league ballparks coming to the Houston area. This story talks about Montgomery County possibly getting an independant team from the Atlantic League, which could start play as early as 2012. The land for the stadium has already been purchased but construction has not begun.

What would a second Houston-area team mean? Sounds like neither team will be affiliated with a major league club outside of the Astros. Houston also hasn't shown much interest in making either of the two bids into one of its minor league affiliates, leaving the independant route for both.

Independant minor league baseball has a lot of potential, but I'm not sure how well it will do so close to Houston. While the summer league team here in Bryan does well, that probably wouldn't be the case if people could also go watch the Astros. On the other hand, these teams could have a good crop of talent to work with, as there are a ton of college and pro players from the Houston area. All it takes is one guy like Rickey Henderson to play for one of the teams to create some buzz.

This isn't nearly as exciting as having a Double-A or Triple-A affiliate at the doorstep to The Woodlands Mall. I do think, however, that the more clubs a city can support will give Houston a better chance to earn a reputation as a baseball town.

Star-divide

Lots and lots and lots of videos this week. Here's one of Arkansas third baseman Zack Cox. here's one on high school pitcher Chris Sale and another on high school outfielder Josh Sale. Another college third baseman, UConn's Mike Olt, has video here while there's also an update on high school pitcher Dylan Covey. All of these guys are expected to be high picks. The Sale kids and Covey will probably go before the Astros get a chance to pick. Cox, however, might be sliding. His strikeout rate is drawing criticism and the fact that he's batting fifth for the college team means he might slide out of the first round entirely. If the Astros are in position to take him in the second, should they pull the trigger? I'm not convinced that scenario would happen. Some team will bite on his other skills in the first round. Still, anything can happen this early in the draft process.

Finally, one that I was quite pleased to see, Bryan High outfielder Krey Bratsen. I've gotten to see Bratsen play on a few occasions in the past couple seasons and he's definitely got a good skill set with two great ones (speed and defensive range). When I saw him, Bratsen made a great play in center field, running down a ball in the gap that I was sure was falling for a double. One of my friends is the Bryan High beat reporter and he speaks very highly of Bratsen. Said that he's never seen pitchers get as rattled as they do when he gets on base, because his speed is such a threat (at the high school level). Bratsen also seems like a pretty good kid, so he shouldn't have any makeup concerns.

Along with the videos, we have a pair of lists put out by FanGraphs on the Top 50 prospects in the National League and the Top 100 prospects in baseball. The Astros Big Three all made it, as Jason Castro, Jio Mier and Jordan Lyles. What did you think of these? The new minor league guy over there, Brian Smith, has actually been pretty fair to the Astros so far. For instance, look at his take on the future of the organization here.

Looking back at organizational philosophy, it's interesting to see how they've moved away from drafting college players and how that has impacted the organization's future. Under Gerry Hunsicker, the team took chances on a lot of college seniors. This article looks at the development patterns of pitchers in college. Some very interesting concepts came up in the article, talking about possible strengths of schedule for college pitchers and the fact that there is a rising home run rate from freshman to senior year. While players do develop physically as they get older, adding arm strength and pitches. If that's the case, what baseball skills do a player gain by going to college? Couldn't he earn the same things in the minors?

Another article I saw here on an Orioles blog talking about the Rays minor league system. The Astros used to be pretty good about this, and I have the impression that Wade is more willing to push pitchers faster than this. The problem ultimately will be on organizational depth. Sometimes, a team will have no choice but to rush a guy a bit. However, I do like the idea of a team being patient enough with a pitcher that he can come up ready to be an effective major leaguer. While this blog pushes the popular idea that good players don't need Triple-A time. I don't think that's true, however, and hope a guy like Jordan Lyles gets a full season in Corpus and then in Round Rock before he makes his Astros debut. I can wait.

Another topic that Evan brought up recently was the backgrounds of current General Managers. This post takes that on, but from a demographic perspective rather than an educational one. As much as people get the impression that the Theo Epsteins are taking over the world, isn't it a bit surprising to see the average age hasn't changed much?

Last, but not least, here's a great chart from Beyond the Boxscore which looks at Hall of Fame might-have-beens. The Astro of note? Cesar Cedeno, who clearly leads the way on this chart in his best seasons. The sad thing is he had so few. His heir apparent TJ Steele also has a history of injuries. Let's hope he has a slightly longer career.

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I don't get this line
Before that happens, it’s going to get worse in Houston. A lot worse.

I have a lot more optimism for the team this year than I did for the team last year.

by timmy_ on Mar 19, 2010 7:45 AM CDT reply actions  

Analysts work with average trends and generalities

Meaning that in normal circumstances players regress at a certain age.

Also, past performances are indicative of future ones.

Their data tells them that the future decreased performance of Lee, Oswalt, Berkman, Wandy, Feliz, Lyon, and everyone on the team over 30 will not be made up in increased performace by Bourn, Pence, Norris, Paulino, or any prospect talent coming through the Astros organization.

So to beat the average assumption players in regressing years have to outperform their trend in order for the team to outperform its expectations. Which is exactly what the Astros did in 2008.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Mar 19, 2010 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

I see your point

But the Pythagorean record last year was 68-94. The Pythagorean this year is something like 72-90 or around that prediction. Who knows what they do in FA next offseason, but Berkman is due for a bounce back year as his trend indicates he tends to have up and down years. I don’t see how Wandy is due to regress when his numbers have improved ever year since being in the majors.

The whole article was a positive one up until that point and from what was said in the article it seems to me that the Astros are on an upward trend with 2007 being the low point.

by timmy_ on Mar 19, 2010 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks for linking my article!

Another good point that a Rays fan made was that because the players are ready when they come up, they don’t waste service years. If a player comes up to majors and struggles you could end up wasting a service year.

Another question, when can we expect Jason Castro to be with the Astros?

by ravensfan3 on Mar 19, 2010 10:24 AM CDT reply actions  

Castro probably will play in the majors sometime this year. There is an outside chance that he will make the 25 man roster out of camp. But the most likely scenario is that he will spend a large part of this season in AAA. Three reasons for that: J.R. Towles is hitting well in spring camp (both Castro and Towles are hitting well) and the Astros want to give him another chance to show what he can do in the majors; the usual service time issues come into play for Castro; and Castro hasn’t played in AAA yet.

by clack on Mar 19, 2010 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

We are hoping..

To see Castro break with the team out of ST. Reality is though that Towles is hitting the cover off the ball, and the feeling is that he will likely break camp as the starting catcher with Castro at AAA to get further exp. and delay his major league service time. If and when Towles falters Castro will be called up. IMO we should see him in the bigs by June 1.

"now you chunkin' in there.."

by jano4 on Mar 19, 2010 10:30 AM CDT reply actions  

…or at the latest, September call up.

by clack on Mar 19, 2010 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

On the minor league parks...

You know we had one down here in Houston area in Texas City. It was in some independent league, and had to fold, because of lack of attendance, and travel costs were too high. The level of play wasn’t all that great say A ball at best, but it was fun to watch and had alot of the minor league atmosphere. IMO I don’t see how these teams can work if they are independent teams with no affiliation to MLB. From what I’ve read the Astros will not grant the exception to let another teams affiliates into there marketing area. So I really can’t see how these teams can work out unless they have a lot of funding behind them.

"now you chunkin' in there.."

by jano4 on Mar 19, 2010 10:37 AM CDT reply actions  

I noticed in Levine’s blog on the Sugarland proposal that he said the city leaders had begun de-emphasizing the ballpark as a stand alone project, and talked about it as a component of an overall development project with theatres and other attractions. But I tend to agree with you.

Texas City? By the way, I was born there.

by clack on Mar 19, 2010 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

Independent team could draw well

The indenpendent team in Montgomery County could draw well.

My brother lives in St Charles County Missouri, which is the county across the Missouri River from St Louis. A team called the River City Rascals fileds a team in a nice park in O’Fallon. They draw nice crowds,. it is very kid-friendly. A pleasant night. So far it has not hurt Cardinals ticket sales.

Local high schools often play at the park when the Rascals are not using it. Charles Barkley filmed his homerun contest this past year at the park.

The owners are an innovative group. I just checked the team’s website. I chuckled at one of their promotions. It is called the “Win Insurance.” A ticket buyer pays an additional $2.00 for the win insurance. If the Rascal lose, the holder gets a voucher for a box seat at another game during the season.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Mar 19, 2010 12:28 PM CDT reply actions  

Skipping AAA

I’m a firm bellever a great player can skip AAA. Birmingham’s team (the Barons) is a AA affiliate of the Chicago White Sox. Really good players (the Frank Thomases of the world and many picthers) can go straight to the majors from AA.

AAA to me are guys already honed to their top talent waiting to move up in case a position opens up; guys who are good or very good but need to improve some aspect of their game or there just is not a place for them in the major league team; and former big leaguers holding on. AAA is NOT an essential step in the development process for the really good player. ( some (many?) players do benefit from AAA (I can think of some examples of good field no hit benefited from AAA ) but it is not essential)

The very best minor league players can be found in AA IMO. Pitchers may need to work on control or other discipline. Batters may need to acclimate to hard throwers (and the dreaded curve) or baserunnuing.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Mar 19, 2010 12:53 PM CDT reply actions  

I see your point

But, at the same time, would you agree that the level of play is higher in AAA? You said they are guys that don’t quite make it on a major league team because of no room for them, or waiting for a spot to open up, and guys who used to be major league caliber players, those guys are better than the guys in AA. Yes developmentally, there may not be much there, which i would disagree, there is a lot of fine tuning going on, but it helps a lot with acclimation. Its a big jump from AA to majors, so it helps prevent the huge drop off from going up levels.

by Subber10 on Mar 19, 2010 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Some (many) players can benefit from AAA

The most talented can make the jump.

youbrign up an additonal factror – Younger (i.e. – straight from high school) guys may need the socializaton, maturation, acclimation, transition benefits hanging out with experience hands maye give them.

but taking Jason Castro as an example, with his talent and Stanford experience, he could make the jump fairly easily i would think.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Mar 19, 2010 2:05 PM CDT reply actions  

I think some great players needed AAA in their development. I doubt that Berkman would have hit well without his AAA experience. Heck, he had some difficulty transitioning to the majors from AAA. It’s hard to generalize, because players have different development paths, and different issues.

I think catchers, like pitchers, are among those who gain the most from AAA. There is refinement of catching skills and pitch calling ability which can improve in AAA. Older veteran catchers in AAA and wily old pitchers in AAA can teach some tricks of the trade. Because Castro’s offense hit a wall after he faced tougher opposition at the end of last year, I think he probably can benefit from a higher level of pitching. He will see more off-speed and breakng stuff in AAA than he saw in AA.

by clack on Mar 19, 2010 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Has hell frozen over?
Astros GM Ed Wade told MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez that his club is “more than adequately covered” with the relievers they have

Source: MLBTradeRumors

by OremLK on Mar 20, 2010 2:53 AM CDT reply actions  

And yes, I know that was a cheap shot at Wade, and I know he already takes too many he doesn’t deserve.

I just couldn’t resist.

by OremLK on Mar 20, 2010 4:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

The only Indy league I want to see is...

some IRL cars driving thru downtown Houston again!

As far as the baseball leagues, the New Caney area is waiting with baited breath for the breaking ground of the new supposed “as big as Disney World” Dinosaur Amusement Park that is being built/developed over next 6-10 years. It’s funny they keep saying Montgomery County when it is in Porter (which sounds even smaller I guess). I think the ballpark just south of that park is something to try and piggy back on any potential growth this dinosaur park may create. However, I question the need of either the team and the park.

I think Indie leagues only work if there are teams all within a reasonable driving distance, which I am not sure about Sugarland & Porter and what league they would be in. My preference would be for the Astros to relocate their A-league team or equivalent to Beaumont to have all three As in Texas. I remember growing up catching a few Golden Gators games & would make the drive from NE Houston to catch some if it was MiLB. I think nothing beats a good old fashioned Minor League game with a good beer promotion!

"I've never gone into a game trying to win the Heisman Trophy; I go into a game trying to win." - Colt McCoy

by Robertpz on Mar 20, 2010 12:44 PM CDT reply actions  

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