Poll: What's your level of confidence in the Astros?
As this post goes up, the Astros will have played a week's worth of spring training games. Some guys, like JR Towles, Matt Lindstrom, Jason Castro and Kaz Matsui, have impressed thus far. Others- Michael Bourn, Wandy, Chris Sampson, haven't fared as well in extremely limited action.
That's the thing about the spring: small sample sizes leads to every performance being placed under the microscope. This is just the nature of the beast for writers, bloggers and fans. We would all like to seize on certain topics and occurrences and draw out some sort of long lasting effect from them. Baseball though, does not lend itself to being judged in one at bat increments.
The same can really be said for organizations as a whole. Consider the Astros. Their 2005, 2006, and 2007 drafts yielded two players, Tommy Manzella and Bud Norris, who figure to play prominent roles in this year's club. Needless to say that for a team that can't spend like one of the top tier clubs, this sort of production can and often times will lead to lean times on the big league level.
While other clubs have succeeded in planting seeds for the future, the Astros have struggled to replicate the sort of success they achieved from 1997-2005. Did the organization as a whole lose its way and forget how it came to the success it did? I doubt it. Perhaps Drayton McLane became so focused on "being a champion" at the major league level that he forgot the underlying reasons for his team's achievements? Or was his mistake in hiring a GM like Tim Purpura, whom McLane may not have had the confidence in that is necessary for a strong owner-GM relationship?
For whatever the reasons, and despite the fact that McLane is the common denominator, the Astros ship appears to have been righted in recent seasons. Now, I don't want this to necessarily be a post that unduly praises Ed Wade, because in all honesty, I don't know if he is the reason why the organization has been on the upward swing. What I do think is that it is fair to argue that while Wade may not ever turn our heads with an out of this world trade or free agent signing, he is at the very least competent. Now the Astros' goal shouldn't be competency, because that's surely not how the team rose to the heights of professional baseball. For the time being though, competency might be just what this organization needs.
So my poll question for this Saturday, is this: how confident are you in the Astros going forward? I don't just mean the Lance and Roy led guys with the stars on their hats. I mean:
- From the major league club to the minor leaguers on the cusp of big league-dom, to the 18 year old in our Dominican Academy. Questions that beg to be asked: Will the 2008 and 2009 draft classes progress as much as we hope? Can the Astros discover this century's Johan Santana, Richard Hidalgo and Carlos Guillen in the Dominican Republic? As for our Astros, did Wade do a good enough job to add talent while simultaneously cutting payroll?
- The front office. Drayton will be Drayton, and as long as he's our owner, we know it's less than likely that the Astros will pay over slot for top line draftees, and there will always be the temptation to think in the short term rather than into the future. Does Ed Wade have his ear so that these tendencies of McLane can be mitigated?
- Scouting and player development wise: Bobby Heck is certainly a favorite around here, but the criticism is that he has been too conservative in his first two drafts with the Astros. As I alluded to earlier, will those '08 and '09 classes make Heck look like a genius? Further down the development totem pole there are a lot of issues to shore up for the Astros to begin to have a consistent pipeline of youngsters going up to the majors. Do you think the organization will invest sufficiently in those people that we will never see, and whose names we will likely never learn?
So look at this team with as objective an eye as you can and tell us:
0 recs |
4 comments
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Comments
I gave a “5,” in the middle. It’s mostly based on long-term rather than short-term—I don’t want to rely too much on spring training for my short term feelings. I think it’s just too early to draw firm conclusions about the Astros’ 2008 and 2009 drafts. Preliminary indicators are good, but really a lot can happen to those classes over the next couple of years. Chris Burke was supposed to be the next Biggio when he was promoted to the majors, but look how that ended. The Astros really are late in turning around their international operations; the way that part of their system declined is a real shame. The D.R. academy is just beginning. So, it’s hard to draw conclusions about the success we should expect from that academy. You have to like what Glenn Barker has done with his first Asian signee (Lo), and maybe it will be a good signal that the Astros will improve on that side of the globe. I really think the Astros need to continue loading up on pitchers for the farm system. (Looking back at the Astros’ past re-emphasizes to me that the attrition rate is so high that you need a bunch of pitchers…plus position players are found more cheaply on the free agent market.)
Some good points which give me confidence about the future: Bobby Heck, the scout and the scouting manager, gives me confidence; I have a good feeling about Brad Mills and the tone he will set; and I know that the Astros are a mid-market team which will eventually be capable of fixing holes with money. This latter point is a key difference between the Astros and the Pirates.
McLane simply has not shown the ability to make good choices
I can’t think of a change he had a hand in which was clearly, undeniably good, but I can think of several which were very, very destructive. He’s made some choices which were okay (improvements), like replacing Purpura with Wade, but none that make you want to sit up and shout, “yes! That is exactly the way you should go!”
And for every “okay” choice he’s made, it seems like there are two bad ones in the past.
He seems to have learned some lessons from his mistakes, and it seems like we’re on the road to improvement now, but nonetheless… I can’t feel good about where the organization is going while he’s its true leader. Until we have an owner who either makes good decisions or hires somebody who will while keeping his hands out of the cookie jar, I can’t feel comfortable giving the organization more than a “6”.
Going forward past this season
I don’t have a lot of hope for the 2010 season, but I voted an 8 based on the next 5 or so years.
It's mostly Drayton I'm worried about
especially if he continues to follow that “win now” approach when it just isn’t happening.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.

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