Jordan Lyles: A wild thought
by OremLK on Mar 12, 2010 6:00 PM CST
19 comments
Here's a scenario for you--a flight of fancy, if you will: Let's say Jordan Lyles starts at AA and dominates in the first half of the year. Say our worst fears come true and one of Norris/Myers/Paulino is hit with a season-ending injury; we're still in the thick of contention.
We do have Moehler on standby, but with our best starting pitcher prospect dominating at AA, does the organization consider doing something radical and calling Jordan Lyles up, thinking that he may actually perform better than Moehler?
On the one hand, Ed Wade's front office has shown some willingness to call pitchers up directly from AA and throw them into the fire (like Wilton Lopez last year); on the other hand, Jordan Lyles is a very young and very important prospect, and you don't want to risk damaging his confidence by bringing him up before he's ready.
Jordan Lyles started 26 games at Class A Lexington last year, pitching 144 innings. He posted a 3.24 ERA and a 2.42 FIP while striking out 167 batters and walking only 38. He was ranked as our third best prospect by Baseball America in November of last year, and the ninety-first best prospect out of all MLB organizations.
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Absolutely not. Jordan Lyles is 19 years old. The track record for injuries to pitchers that young in the majors is poor. I don’t think you should gamble on damaging a young pitcher’s career by bringing them up to the majors too early. I would be very hesitant about calling up a pitcher to the majors before they are 21.
I would add that in the current era, it is rare that a team would consider putting a pitcher that age on the major league roster. It was more common twenty or more years ago, but the high profile cases involving young phenoms who ruined their arm pitching too early in the majors has changed that practice.
As best I can tell, the youngest MLB pitchers last year were: Rick Porcello, Clayton Kershaw, and Neftali Feliz, who were all 21 years old.
Kershaw is an interesting comparison
Though the Dodgers pushed him up to Double-A in his first full season for 24 innings, he pitched another 64 in Double-A the next year before making his major league debut at 20. He pitched 171 total innings that year and another 171 in 2009. This year, the Dodgers have been talking about removing some of his pitch count restraints, but so far, he’s shown no signs of injury.
I’m not crazy about the idea of pushing Lyles. It is interesting to look at all these modern examples of young guys pitching in the majors, when the modern era is so (rightfully) paranoid about pitcher injuries.
by David Coleman on Mar 13, 2010 10:14 AM CST up reply actions
So you would suggest that pitching in the majors is more of an injury risk than pitching in the minors? What’s the thought process behind this? Change in mechanics/overthrowing because of the pressure?
yes. higher stress level in the majors. overthrowing. when very young pitchers get in a jam in the majors, all they know to do is reach back and try to throw the next pitch through a brick wall. The young pitcher is better than the hitters in the minors, and doesn’t react the same way. That creates fatigue and can overstress the arm; and studies have shown that pitching through fatigue increases a young pitcher’s injury risk by something like 3,000%. Also, you would expect that young pitchers may not recognize their fatigue because of all the adrenaline they have in their first major league season.
Current pitchers who came up younger than 21
Felix Hernandex (19) – no major injuries
Edwin Jackson (19) – no major injuries, but didn’t pitch over 36 MLB innings until age 23
Zach Greinke (20) – no major injuries, but missed 2006 with depression/psychological issues
CC Sabathia (20) – no major injuries
Matt Cain (20) – no major injuries
Rick Porcello (20) – no major injuries so far
That’s just going by Baseball-Reference. It seems rare for pitchers to be called up that young, but if a guy is talented enough, it does happen.
Now, I’m not saying that it doesn’t increase injury risk—obviously my sample size only included “pitchers who made it”, and I’m sure there were a number of busted prospects during that time who came up at a young age. However, I will note that with this kind of thing, it seems difficult to tell whether early call-ups are the actual cause for injury or for a prospect to “bust”.
Have there been studies with statistical evidence showing a strong correlation between early call-ups and injuries?
yes, I’m fairly sure I have seen some in the past…but I don’t have time to look it up. They may have been more on the order of medical articles, which may or may not have been statistical in nature. Note that all but one of those players is 20. (I think Kershaw may have made his first appearance at age 20 too, but his innings pitched were intentionally limited.) I think one of the issues is that bodies are still maturing when the pitchers are in their teenage years. Also, at that age, it is probably safer to build up arm strength in the minors. The majors are a terrible place for a young pitcher to work on that…the level of stress is so high that young pitchers may attempt to throw too hard. There will be pitchers who will be fine pitching in the majors at a young age, but given the risky nature, why would a team take the chance? I still take the view that the Astros caused Troy Patton’s injury by bringing him up to the majors at age 21 after he had already pitched more innings than at any time in his career.
When I think of teams bringing up young pitchers too early, I think of David Clyde, a spectacular high school pitcher from Westchester High in Houston, whom was allowed to pitch at age 18 in the majors. From his Wikipedia page:
Many of Clyde’s troubles are attributed to the rush to get him into the majors before he was ready. This was due, in part, to Short wanting to sell tickets. The Rangers averaged 27,000 fans in Clyde’s six home starts, but 6,000 fans for the other 75 home dates. As it turned out, Clyde’s major league debut was the highlight of his career.
Whitey Herzog, Clyde’s manager in 1973, said in his 1986 autobiography White Rat that he regretted going along with Short’s desire to rush Clyde to the big leagues. According to Herzog, he was often forced to leave Clyde in the game much longer than he felt was normal for a young pitcher because fans wanted to see the 18-year-old “phenom” pitch. This led to Clyde’s arm burning out at an early age.
Also, Will Carroll’s “injury nexus” article is worth reading. His study indicates that the attrition rate (as a proxy for severe injury) for pitchers is more than double at the age of 21, compared to age 24. He also has some of the quotes from Dr. Jobe concerning the continued strengthening of bones, tendons, and ligaments which is occurring at younger ages.
New Pitch
This is a minor issue for sure, and injury risk is a major issue that i’d be more concerned with. The development issue that clack brought up is an excellent point, secondary muscle development is very big in the late teens, these are the ones that really stabilize joints and just a few innings in overthrowing while trying to impress in the majors can damage this like clack pointed out. Development is very different from individual to individual, but given Lyles lankiness, i’d let him stick in the minors and continue to let him dominate AA.
Now to the new point i wanted to bring up. Lexington only allowed him to use 3 pitches and an interview he said he was bringing in another breaking ball this coming season and can also throw a cutter that he was going to try to work in some this year. So, my point is that he has 2 above-avg pitches right now in his fastball and change-up that BP or BA said was the best in the system. His curve is still developing that can be a plus pitch but isn’t there yet. So, he really needs to work on that curve more and needs the time to see if his next breaking ball can be a plus pitch as well.
Fair points
I’m not sure it’s quite as clear-cut as you’re both saying, since there’s obviously been some success in the recent past bringing up pitchers at a young age, but I can definitely see and maybe even agree with your arguments. The question is, will the front office see it the same way?
No way
Although Ii think it is a case by case basis and that the player has to show you something very special in talent, conditioning (IP wise) and mental maturity, for the most part it really isn’t worth the risk.
Anyway, I can’t see it coming to that. If we were in the race in June and a SP goes down I would suspect Drayton ok’s the signing of a Pedro Martinez or something of that nature.
Has it already been decided that Lyles will start at AA? He might be looking at A+ in Lancaster to start the year. I’d be very surprised if Lyle’s reaches the majors before 2012.
As far as can tell, the Astros front office hasn’t decided whether to go the AA or high-A route. If I were betting, I would say AA. But the last I read, Bennett said that the decision would be made purely on whether the pitchers are ready for AA, and wouldn’t be based on the Lancaster “hitting environment.” So, who knows.
I think their are other options such as Abad, Trinidad, etc… who would come up before for Lyles, simply because the organization needs to find out what these guys can do at the major league level. However I wouldn’t mind seeing Lyles in September if the Astros are out of contention and he hasn’t already pitched an exceeding amount of innings.
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