I should mention, though, that I’m not putting a lot of stock into their respective Spring Training stats. It’s encouraging that Towles and Castro are doing so well, but the sample size just is not large enough to suggest much of anything.

I also hope Q plays well. He lost weight and supposedly is in great shape.

  Normally the Astros assign three starting pitchers to the starting catcher and two starting pitchers to the back up catcher. That’s 3/5ths of playing time going to one starter and 2/5th going to the other catcher. And it’s possible to even up the playing time even more by tweaking the assignments based on the opposing pitcher. If Towles gets 1/3 or more of the playing time when Castro comes up, that’s not to bad. And, given the fatiguing nature of the position, you could justify moving it closer to 50-50.

obviously that bodes good things for the Astros if that happens…depending on how the other players perform. I tested two scenarios with Towles, Berkman, and Oswalt, using the WAR calculation which was described by Dying Quail in previous articles. In the first scenario, I increased Berkman’s wOBA to .410, which is only a hair above his career average, increased Towles’ wOBA to .335, and decreased Oswalt’s ERA to 3.00. The Astros’ WAR calculation increases from 79 wins to 83 wins. The second scenario, I increased Berkman’s wOBA to .420, which is equal to his very good 2008 season, increased Towles wOBA to .360 and also increased his plate appearances to 500, and (in addition to the ERA reduction) I pegged Oswalt’s innings pitched to 210 (instead of 189). This increased the Astros’ win total to 89…which probably would put the Astros in contention.

Towles has only had 268 plate appearances at the major league level. He has a career .864 OPS in the minor leagues. I don’t think you can say at this point that he can’t play in the major leagues. He’s never been given much of a chance, and when he did play, it was under the unforgiving eye of Cecil Cooper.

He will likely be given every chance to prove himself this season.

As for Quintero? He’s a typical backup catcher, a win or so above replacement level when you factor in his defensive ability. He likely will never light it up in the batter’s box, but his mitt will allow him to hold down a job. If not here in the long run, then somewhere.

I think it’s more likely that Towles changes positions or is traded than Castro. By all accounts, Castro is a very good defensive catcher (especially given his youth), and I think he is better than Towles behind the dish.

There has not been evidence to suggest the calling games is a skill which has any statistically significant effect on a pitcher’s performance. I’m not saying it doesn’t, but nobody has yet been able to demonstrate it, and I’m going to remain skeptical of such claims until I see something to back them up.

Towles, by the way, has a 30% caught stealing rate throwing out opposing basestealers in a limited sample size, which is pretty darn good. This fits with what we’ve seen from him in the minors. I believe his overall defense is regarded as average to a little above average, so I’m not sure what basis you have for your statements about him.

As for his batting, there are a number of statistical markers (most prominently his BABIP) which suggest that he has been a victim of a lot of bad luck on balls in play; his minor league numbers are much, much better, and his sample size in with the big club is small, so that leads many of us to believe that given the chance, he will be a much better batter than he’s shown so far at the major league level.

Last but not least, I’d take issue with the statement that “Pitching and defense and small ball win games”. This is old-fashioned thinking which has always been misleading and was never wholly true in the first place. Production wins ball games, whether that comes from homeruns, defense, “small ball”, or even being very good at drawing walks. When you make statements like this one, you’re not exactly wrong, but you’re only telling one portion of the truth, and the total statement becomes misleading and gives an incorrect impression about the game of baseball.