TCB Community Projections #6: Lindstrom and Manzella

Lindstrom: 58.7 IP, 7.44 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 14 SV

Manzella: .238 BA, .644 OPS….I don’t see him getting more than 300 AB

Lindstrom 48 IP, 3.96 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 16 SV

Manzella .238, .299, .300 (.599 OPS), 349 PA, 4 SB, 60%

Lindstrom strikes me as either boom or bust for the Astros, mostly based upon injuries. I’ll take the relatively healthy side—probably just to be optimistic, since I don’t have any real insight as to whether he is over the injuries or not. I think the Lindstrom trade was a nice risk for Wade, and I think he will be rewarded.

Obviously, my line for Manzella isn’t good, and I hope I’m wrong. This line reflects Manzella’s tendency to get off to a weak offensive start in his first year at a higher level. In fact, the triple slash is almost the same as he put up after he moved up to Salem.

Do I have to project reliever ERA? Yikes. Okay, fine.

Lindstrom: 55IP, 4.40 ERA, 11 SV, 45 K, 25 BB.

Seems overly optimistic to count on him getting back to 2007, but he should be decent.

Manzella: .256/.309/.368, 630 PA, 11 SB, 78%

This is where I diverge from popular opinion and most projection systems. I have a good feeling about his BABIP last year in the minors—I have the feeling it pretty accurately reflects what he’s capable of doing. Here’s why:

According to MinorLeagueSplits, Manzella’s line drive percentage increased every year in the minors. Even when he moved up to a new level, his LD% was stable (within around 1%) or increased. He also hits a ton of groundballs and very few flyballs. I timed him on the basepaths, and he’s surprisingly fast down the line; he may not steal a ton of bases, but he’s definitely quick to first. Maybe he just doesn’t have good basestealing instincts.

Overall, I think his batting average was legitimate. It’ll go down at the big league level because he will strike out more, at least in his rookie season. But like Bourn, he should be able to stay afloat just by pounding the ball onto the ground and running as hard as he can.

I also don’t see what other options we have at shortstop, which is why I’m projecting him for a full season of PAs. Keppinger is almost a sure bet to post negative WAR at shortstop, Blum the same. As long as Manzella hits well enough to stay in the lineup, which I think he will, he should stick.