BP comes up with new pitching statistic
I can hear some people saying, "oh, another pitching statistic; that's all we need." However, Baseball Prospectus has come up with a new stat which it claims to be superior to ERA, FIP, and x-FIP, called "Sierra," The formula: SIERA = 6.262 – 18.055*(SO/PA) + 11.292*(BB/PA) – 1.721*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) +10.169*((SO/PA)^2) – 7.069*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 9.561*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) – 4.027*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) The description of some of the factors which the formula accounts for (like GB pitchers being hurt less by walks due to the GIDP possibility) is intriguing. BP hasn't shown us how pitchers stack up on this stat...yet. I'm sure we will hear more in the future.
almost 2 years ago
clack
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Fun new toy
I went ahead and threw together a little program to calculate SIERA numbers for me, and this is what it spit out. I just ran the 2009 numbers and included ERA, FIP, and xFIP for comparison. So… long post ahead.
Astros Pitchers
Wandy Rodriguez
ERA: 3.02
FIP: 3.54
xFIP: 3.63
SIERA: 3.51
Roy Oswalt
ERA: 4.12
FIP: 3.76
xFIP: 3.88
SIERA: 3.92
Brett Myers
ERA: 4.84
FIP: 6.14
xFIP: 4.32
SIERA: 4.36
Felipe Paulino
ERA: 6.27
FIP: 5.11
xFIP: 4.10
SIERA: 3.88
Bud Norris
ERA: 4.53
FIP: 4.77
xFIP: 4.38
SIERA: 3.90
Brian Moehler
ERA: 5.47
FIP: 4.75
xFIP: 4.67
SIERA: 4.84
WAR Leaderboard Top 5
Zack Greinke
ERA: 2.16
FIP: 2.33
xFIP: 3.15
SIERA: 2.80
Justin Verlander
ERA: 3.45
FIP: 2.80
xFIP: 3.26
SIERA: 2.72
Tim Lincecum
ERA: 2.48
FIP: 2.34
xFIP: 2.87
SIERA: 2.76
Roy Halladay
ERA: 2.79
FIP: 3.06
xFIP: 3.05
SIERA: 3.15
Felix Hernandez
ERA: 2.49
FIP: 3.09
xFIP: 3.42
SIERA: 3.43
Three other average-ish guys
Doug Davis
ERA: 4.12
FIP: 4.84
xFIP: 4.68
SIERA: 4.85
Joe Blanton
ERA: 4.05
FIP: 4.45
xFIP: 4.07
SIERA: 3.92
Barry Zito:
ERA: 4.03
FIP: 4.31
xFIP: 4.46
SIERA: 4.34
by OremLK on Feb 9, 2010 6:29 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Wow, that’s quick work, OremLK! I made that fanpost, and went off-line for less than an hour to work on a “real work” spreadsheet, and then return to see that you’ve cracked the BP pitcher data. You have to like Bud Norris’ and Felipe Paulino’s results for this stat. This stat is similar to FIP and x-FIP results for both Wandy and Roy. It is most similar to Brett Myers’ x-FIP stat.
Nice job.
well done sir!
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 9, 2010 6:49 PM CST up reply actions
SIERA is not nearly as kind to our bullpen, as it turns out. Leaving off the other numbers this time, so you’ll have too look ’em up yourself for comparison.
Brandon Lyon
SIERA: 4.40
Matt Lindstrom
SIERA: 4.57
Alberto Arias
SIERA: 3.77
Jeff Fulchino
SIERA: 3.79
Sammy Gervacio
SIERA: 2.76
Tim Byrdak
SIERA: 4.30
Thanks for calculatin' those numbers.
Byrdak is the only relief pitcher who is helped a lot with Siera vs. FIP. Byrdak’s FIP is more than a full run higher than SIERA. It would be interesting to guess why Byrdak fares so well on SIERA.
All of the other relief pitchers have higher SIERA numbers than their FIP. In most cases, the FIP is fairly close to the SIERA number. Lyon is hurt the most by SIERA. His FIP is 4.06 vs. 4.40. I wonder how Sampson fares?
4.64 on Sampson, for 2009 at least.
I think SIERA does not like low strikeout guys who put a lot of balls in play. Pineiro’s 2009, for example, results in a 3.80 SIERA, worse than his FIP and xFIP… and that’s about as well as you can perform with that pitching style, I think (3.89 K/BB, 60.5% groundball rate).
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