TCB Community Projection #1: Roy Oswalt & Lance Berkman
by David Coleman on Feb 8, 2010 1:00 PM CST
in Stat Geeky
12 comments
You have already heard from HLP about his projections on the Astros win total for 2010 using WAR. Over the next few weeks, you'll be hearing from DQ and clack on what they came up with. Since I'm pretty horrible with predictions, I thought it'd be more fun to come up with something a little different.
In the spirit of FanGraph's community projections, how about we band together here and predict what each member of the 25-man roster will do this season? You can be as scientific or as spontaneous as you like. Feel free to add whatever numbers or forecasts you'd like. So we have something to compare, for hitters let's include total plate appearances, a slash line, stolen bases and SB percentage and extra-base hits. For pitchers, let's go with total innings, ERA/FIP (whichever you'd prefer), strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. Outside of that, you can put in whatever you'd like.
To get this done before the start of the season, let's go with a hitter and a pitcher each time with posts going up Mondays and Wednesdays. I'll keep track of what everyone projects and post the results each Friday. Sound like a plan? Good deal. Let's get to projecting!
First up, Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman...
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I'll play.
Lance Berkman
PA: 620
Slash line: .290/.404/.539
SB: 8
SB% 66.6
Defensive runs above average: 0
I’m going to leave off extra base hits because that seems kind of extraneous to me when we’re already listing SLG. I’m adding defensive runs because I think that’s important for a position player.
Roy Oswalt
ERA: 3.62
IP: 192
SO: 151
BB: 45
HR: 16
Rebound from 2009.
Berkman: .290, .405, .550 (OPS .955). PA 590 75 XBH 8 SB 60%
I see the usual even-odd year performance for Berkman, and that means a rebound from 2008. His days on the HR leaderboard may be behind him, but he could figure prominently on the doubles leaderboard.
Roy Oswalt 3.45 ERA, 190 IP, 147 K, 40 BB, 17 HR
I see another rebound from 2008 here too, but this is a somewhat riskier projection than Berkman because of uncertainty about his back issues. I’m betting that Oswalt will be bound and determined to show people that 2008 was an anomaly. And, hopefully, with his new exercise regimen, he will be more prepared to deal with his back injury than in previous seasons. Still, I don’t see Oswalt as a 200+ IP guy anymore. He will get more days off in order to rest his back.
In terms of the DQ/Clack projection
I think we’ve broken the spreadsheet, so it may be awhile until I get it to work again. Early returns have at 84 wins…but that’s because it’s broken.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
i guess i see i am predicting a bounceback year from Berkman as well.
However, from Oswalt i am seeing a downward trend. his HR/9 has gone up significantly the past 2 years and he has continued to walk more batters the past 3 years. he got away with all the homers in ‘07 b/c he didnt walk many batters….however, a combo of rising walks and HR’s spells disaster not comeback
This has been bothering me all day
Random question, but who’s the pitcher you guys have that taps his foot a few times before every pitch? And sorry but I didn’t know anywhere else to ask this, and hopefully I’m thinking of the right team…
My two cents:
Lance:
602 PA
.296/.408/.533
28 HR/112 RBI/90 R
Roy:
198 IP
15-10
3.71 ERA
137 K/40 BB
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 8, 2010 10:16 PM CST reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 55 | .586 | 0 | Won 4 |
|
St. Louis
|
69 | 62 | .526 | 8 | Lost 5 |
|
Houston
|
62 | 71 | .466 | 16 | Won 3 |
|
Milwaukee
|
62 | 71 | .466 | 16 | Lost 3 |
|
Chicago
|
57 | 77 | .425 | 21.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
44 | 89 | .330 | 34 | Lost 1 |
(updated 9.2.2010 at 9:47 AM CDT)
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