Power, Power, Bats Y'all: Astro Farmhands Topping the Charts
While Astro fans wait with bated breath for the release of the team's ZIPS projection next week, CHONE has given us a morsel of clairvoyant thought to nibble on in the mean time. The results are not what you would call good. Or even "ok". I'll stop beating around the metaphorical bush and just come out with it...every team that is supposed to have a better record than the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2010, raise your hand. Not so fast, Houston Astros. A 73-89 record is worse than Baseball Prospectus' prediction of 76-86 and a whole lot worse than my optimistic 85-77 record that I threw out earlier in the week.
Breaking the list down player by player, it's clear that CHONE isn't all that high on either Felipe Paulino or Brett Myers. That's to be expected in a way. Myers is coming off an injury plagued 2009 season, and gives up an inordinate amount of home runs. Paulino is a young guy with very few major league innings, and less than stellar minor league credentials.
Still, both have the ability to out produce their projected lines. For instance, I look at Brett Myers projection and think, If Brett gives up 21 home runs in only 126 innings pitched, good for a home run every 16.66 innings he pitches I will type a thousand words about my love for Jim Edmonds. It's well known that Myers has a propensity to allow the home run ball (that's a nice way to put it!), but it's not like he's trending upward in that category. 70.2 innings of work last season aren't really a fair representation of his talents. I realize that the Projectatron 3000xi or whatever is used to spit out these numbers doesn't know that, but we do. So beware the low balling of our record, or least as far as Myers is concerned.
The other side of the coin doesn't have the same upside as the pitching staff. Our offense by and large is a very fair representation of what could happen in 2010. Definitely on the low end of what I think will happen, but there were no egregious projections in my estimation.
What is really lacking with the offense is power hitting. A patient approach at the plate, high contact rates, avoiding the dreaded ground ball double play and savvy base running are all important characteristics that a hitter should strive to exude. Above and beyond these traits, the ability to hit for extra bases can do wonders for a club's propensity to score more runs than they allow on a night to night basis. Outside of purely statistical reasons, just think about how much a double down the line, or an out of nowhere three run homer can swing games around, forcing the manager's hand in utilizing his bullpen. In the war of attrition that is a 162 game baseball season, extra base hits are the heavy artillery.
Help, perhaps, is on the way. Kellen Clemens and Collin DeLome have made proven themselves to be proficient power threats while minor leaguers. Caveats abound though, as both have played in either the hitter friendly California League or the hitter friendly Texas League.
DeLome's opposite field power stroke is promising if only because recognition of pitches, patience and strength are all crucial to the ability to hit to the opposite field. He isn't going to be knocking on the door of the majors in 2010, but a steady ISO% from High A to AA is promising nonetheless.
With Jonathan Gaston and Jay Austin making their way into at least one top ten Astros' prospects list, there is definite power potential down low on the organizational totem pole. As with all minor leaguers, it's a fine line between potential major leaguer and career minor leaguer. What really interests me, is the supposed "lowish ceiling, high floor" prospects at the top of the Astros' prospects pecking order such as Jio Mier, Jason Castro and Jordan Lyles, and the perhaps higher ceiling, lower floor outfield prospects like Austin, Gaston, and TJ Steele. Combine these players with the aforementioned DeLome and Clemens, and our other offensive draftees from 2008 and 2009, and more pop may be in the offering sooner than we think.
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CHONE shows Bourn as a .706 OPS hitter and a -1 run defensive player. I can understand where the regression on offense is coming from, but if Bourn regresses, rather than progresses, on offense, the Astros are likely in trouble. The negative projection for Bourn’s defense is just ridiculous.
by clack on Feb 6, 2010 7:50 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I have noticed this as a pattern in CHONE and some other projection systems, they tend to low-ball defensive performance on younger players. CHONE has Hunter Pence at 1 fielding runs too, by the way… and Manzella at -10 runs. I don’t agree with any of those projections-I think they’re selling each player short by as much as a full win.
by OremLK on Feb 6, 2010 11:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ack. For some reason using a dash as a negative sign sometimes activates strike through. Meant to say:
CHONE has Hunter Pence at minus 1 fielding runs too, by the way… and Manzella at minus 10 runs. I don’t agree with any of those projections
by OremLK on Feb 6, 2010 11:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
CHONE has Chris Johnson at 10 runs too. I agree that Johnson probably is a below average defender, but -10 runs is a lot. I don’t understand the -10 runs for Manzella. His Total Zone results in the minors perhaps could produce a prediction range of, say, -5 to +5, and I woudn’t be surprised at any prediction, either above or below average, in that range. (I have no idea what the algorithms might be for converting minor league TZ into major league equivalence. I assume that minor league defense is discounted, just like offense, because the player is compared to better fielding players at the ML level; and I would also think that the poorer condition of minor league infields and lighting would be a factor in the other direction.) However, Total Zone is not as accurate as UZR or +/ and I would view TZ results along the lines of “some information is better than no information.”
As I have said before, Bourn’s defensive stats are lower than they should be because of the huge number of out of zone plays. Both UZR and zone rating give the player credit only for balls caught within the player’s zone.
by clack on Feb 6, 2010 12:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ignore the strike throughs above…I had the same problema s OremLK.
by clack on Feb 6, 2010 12:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I just don't see it.
However many games CHONE projects us to win, I’m going to add around +3 to that number.
Going back to your original subject, I think we can expect Bourn’s BABIP to regress. My hope is that he lowers his strikeout rate and increases his ISO a bit to make up for it.
by OremLK on Feb 6, 2010 4:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
looking at BPro's projections
they expect him to hit 7 homers, four more than last season, but they say his BA, OBP and even SLG% will decrease as well…I can see the uptick in home runs happening, and even a BABIP regression, though who knows…maybe Bourn will be one of those .360 BABIP guys from here on out, but the drop off in his extra base ability is iffy in my book. A player with Bourn’s speed can turn singles into doubles, etc much easier than most players. This advantage that I don’t think PECOTA can quantify..ie: odd caroms off gloves and walls, etc.
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 6, 2010 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Hardball Times BABIP predictor indicates his BABIP was what it is supposed to be last year (no reason to expect regression). He is on the “increase BABIP” side of each of the variables in that model (speed, LHB, GB%, LD % are the most significant factors). Even his K rate is variable which predicts higher BABIP. I find that somewhat hopeful. The HT formula uses stolen bases as a proxy for speed (because the regression was based on something like 20 years of data which goes beyond the available speed score data). Arguably, that may overstate Bourn’s relative speed (since he had so many stolen bases). But putting that aside, Bourn is someone who should be expected to have a very high BABIP (probably in excess of .350).
by clack on Feb 6, 2010 7:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I agree he will have high BABIP, and I don’t think he’s going to regress as much as most systems are projecting. However, .367 is really stretching it… even Ichiro doesn’t manage that on average. (He averages .359).
Also, Bourn’s minor league BABIP was never that high. His average was .341. At this point that’s about where I’d project him for 2010.
by OremLK on Feb 6, 2010 10:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, as for the “hitter friendly Texas League,” keep in mind that Astros’ prospects play half their games at Whataburger Park which has a ballpark factor which is pitcher-friendly.
by clack on Feb 6, 2010 7:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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