About Matsui: The Astros and WAR Predictions
by David Coleman on Feb 3, 2010 10:02 AM CST
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PrintNo, I'm not going to throw out my own predictions about what Houston's WAR total is. I was struck by some of the commentary between OremLK and clack going on in that last post. I thought I'd expand that a little here.
Clack basically stated that through his work on expected BABiP, Matsui was unlucky last season and should bounce back to be a 1.5-2.0 WAR player. Here's the money quote:
Also, based on watching him the last two years, I don’t think his range has deteriorated very much. The negative UZR results last year surprise me, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he could improve that part of the WAR.
My impression of Matsui's defense has been that his range is pretty good; it's his glove work that's the problem. If you look at his advanced stats on Baseball Reference, his total number of errors was down from 2008, but he had zero throwing errors for the first time in three years. It's safe to say he'll chalk up a couple throwing errors in 2010. Matsui did have the most fielding chances in his career in 2009, and converted about his career average of them into outs (94%). He also turned more double plays in 2009 than he had in his career, including more 6-4-3 twin killings. How will those numbers be affected by Tejada's departure? Will having a better defensive shortstop next to him increase his fielding opportunities?
So I guess I just wanted to discuss Matsui's defense with the community. Is there a good chance of Matsui bouncing back in his range but regressing with the glove? Does that make him the anti-Tejada, a solid fielder who lacked enough range to play short? Talk amongst yourselves...
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Perhaps a better shortstop
…has the reverse effect of what we think. Maybe putting Matsui next to an above average shortstop will create more opportunities for him to make mistakes. How many potential double plays WEREN’T created due to Tejada not getting to the ball? Just a thought. I could be totally off, but it makes me wonder.
His other two big years with 643 DPs came with Troy Tulowitzki in Colorado and one other with Tejada. He did play with Jose Reyes early in his career, but neither were very good by the numbers. It’s an interesting question.
by David Coleman on Feb 3, 2010 10:25 AM CST up reply actions
I think Tejada and Matsui were a good DP combination. Perhaps this came with more familiarity after playing together in 2008. Tejada’s range may be sub-par, but his ability to flip the ball quickly was good, and his footwork is pretty good too. Matsui just does a good job around the 2d base; he has good speed to get to the bag and he is good at avoiding the base runner. Whether Manzella and Matsui can work as well, who knows?
Yes, I think Matsui could benefit from Manzella fielding to his right. Last year I noticed many occasions when Matsui had to range behind and just past 2d base to make a play which Tejada should have made. I looked at Fielding Bible +/- numbers since they break it down by direction. Matsui in fact was +1 moving to his right. He was +4 straight on. But he was -9 moving toward first base. Coincidently, Berkman had a poor defensive season (compared to 08) last year. One possible reason could be that Matsui had to shade more toward 2d base than normal in order to compensate for Tejada. The fact that Berkman fell off defensive at 1st base (he fell from +13 in 2008 to -1in 2009, according to Fielding Bible) didn’t help Matsui either.
As for Matsui’s errors, I felt that was the reason his defensive stats looked bad in 2008. And it seemed to me that the errors came in flurry his initial couple of games back from the DL, which he seemed to visit frequently. I think his errors might decline if he doesn’t have to visit the DL multiple times. That’s just a guess, and I could be wrong.
The double play tandem of Matsui and Manzella
should be called….
M&M
by Timothy De Block on Feb 3, 2010 12:19 PM CST up reply actions
We should also keep in mind....
The possible Kepp – Matsui DP combo. There is a very real chance that Manzella isn’t good enough to stay in the majors too long and that puts Kepp as the starting SS. He would likely be a worse feilding SS and that could definitely effect Matui’s numbers.
I really, really hope Keppinger doesn’t end up playing shortstop. That would be disastrous defensively, worse than Tejada.
Kepp’s career UZR/150 at shortstop is -17.4 (in 166 games). When he played 108 games at shortstop for the Reds in 2008, he was worth -1.2 WAR (1.2 wins below replacement).
What's the cut-off
Where do you think Brad Mills/Ed Wade draw the line on offensive production for Manzella this season before he’s replaced? Obviously, the line differs depending on the production of the team as a whole, but this is something that could be fun to discuss.
Since everyone compares him to Everett, it’s worth mentioning that Adam spend all of a month in the majors after breaking camp with the big league team for the first time. Jimy Williams sent him down and it took him a while before he made it back. With the lack of a good option to fill in, I don’t see that happening again, but it’s something to keep in mind.
by David Coleman on Feb 3, 2010 1:38 PM CST up reply actions
probably depends a great deal
on how good his defense is….the better it is, the more ineptitude at the plate the Astros will be willing to suffer through.
The team in ’05 scored 693 runs:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2005.shtml
We’re going to allow more than 609 (a lot more), but my point is that Adam Everett was our SS that season, and I think Manzella will produce in a similar capacity in 2010 as Everett did in 2005:
.248/.290/.364, OPS+ of 70
Now that I look at it, CHONE almost has that exact line for Manzella:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2005.shtml
.244/.295/.349
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 3, 2010 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
I love
how this has quickly turned into a discussion of how good Manzella will be. That, to me, is once again a sign that Matsui just isn’t fun to talk about.
Except when you mention anal fissures. It may not be fun to talk about, but it always makes me chuckle.
by David Coleman on Feb 3, 2010 1:48 PM CST up reply actions
Ever google image search what an anal fissure looks like to know exactly what he went through? I don’t recommend it. Made me switch to the good TP just to try and show myself some preventive love.
Ha! And my wife mocks me for saying toilet paper is one of the few things in life you don’t go cheap on. But I digress…
by David Coleman on Feb 3, 2010 2:32 PM CST up reply actions
This conversation is really ...
in the toilet :-)
by titansfan4ever on Feb 5, 2010 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
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