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Ed Wade gets trashed (by a writer), Richard Justice defends him, and the Marlins home keeps changing its name

SBN/Baseball Prospectus have been gracious enough to get the "head" baseball blog writers complimentary subscriptions to Baseball Prospectus. I speak for David, Stephen and myself when I say, "Big ups to the powers that be", for making all this happen.

This is (was?) the preeminent source online and otherwise, for innovative statistical analysis and discussion, so access to their writers and stat database will inevitably come in handy for us.

For instance, yesterday one of their contributors had a breakdown concerning positional battles for the NL Central. As is the custom in the saber-world, the Astros' portion of the article was pessimistic to extreme. Their discussion of the Astros' second and third base options was like listening to a Foodie discuss the fare at McDonalds. What's puzzling is that PECOTA doesn't exactly hate Jeff Keppinger (.297/.358/.427) or Kaz Matsui (.282/.340/.418), but I'm guessing that their opinions of Pedro Feliz, Geoff Blum and Chris Johnson more than overshadow the able play of Matsui and Kepp.

But what's a Astro-personnel article without a poke at Ed Wade? I'm seriously asking that question. I can't recall there being such an article. Anyways, here's the dig at Wade:

These aren't really job battles, they're squalid compromises with the present that you're left with when you get this far out on the weak branch of Ed Wade's decision tree, the upshot of a course taken back when the new GM elected to go for it in 2008.

Hold on. Hold on. So we're supposed to believe that Ed Wade put the Astros in this situation, because he traded for Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins at the tail end of 2008?

A breakdown of the "toll" this put on the Astros' developmental ladder goes something like this:

Judging by the stats, Matt Cusick would not be able to help the Astros at all this season. Or in 2011. Or in 2012. So Christina Kahrl thinks Ed Wade sold the Astros' future short by trading for Wolf and Hawkins in 2008? Both players had key roles in helping the Astros come within a game before our ill fated trip to Miller Park to face the Cubs after Hurricane Ike hit town.

Maybe she's arguing that the Astros should have traded players instead of trading for players? That argument has merit, but when your club is in contention like the Astros were in 2008, Wade would have been doing the team a disservice by giving up at that point, as making the playoffs is so difficult in MLB. I'm sure Christina Kahrl knows these things, but it's even more likely that she knows where sabermetric bread is buttered now a days: piling on Ed Wade, decrying the Astros' talent evaluators as dopes, and writing about the 2010 club in near mocking fashion.

Richard Justice came to Wade's defense in a blog post yesterday. Right on cue, RJ lauds the same signings that Kahrl lampoons:

He added Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins during the 2008 season, and both those moves turned out extraordinarily well.

While Justice knows Wade personally, I don't, and my motivation to defend him comes from the same place as my motivation to do a lot of things in my life: because most people don't. Still, this line from RJ's post makes me like Wade a little more:

Ed is an interesting guy. Gets up and runs seven miles in the dark many mornings.

The runner in me appreciates this tremendously.

I'll throw in a personal comparison here: many mornings, I'll finish up my morning run by going past the law library here where I go to school. It's not infrequent that I see classmates of mine piling into the library to catch up on homework, do research or just be studious.

Now, I'm not going to graduate first in my class, but I do a competent job with my studies nonetheless. If I joined them in the library when it was still dark out, it's a possibility that I could join them as scholars. Probably not, but maybe. After three years though, I still prefer to put on my running shoes and start my day off that way.

Like me and some of my high GPA classmates, Ed Wade's not Theo Epstein, but he's not the worst GM either. He's a well-rounded guy, who knows his strengths and weaknesses. No one is perfect, whether your craft is making pottery, learning the law, or making baseball decisions. The Astros have a GM who doesn't seem to get the praise he deserves, but will always be criticized for one thing or another.

Check out this cool graph of sorts that shows all the stadiums that ML teams have played in since each team came to be. I think the Marlins get the record for playing in the same building that has had the most number of names (5), over the fewest number of years (17).

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Maybe BP was referring to the decision to trade for Tejada and Valverde before the season started? However, the only position player of note sent out by the Astros was Luke Scott—-and I don’t think he would make much difference for the infield position player batters.

I did like this little line from the discussion of the Cubs:


Will Jeff Samardzija ever reliably challenge batters, and not just spell-checkers?

by clack on Feb 27, 2010 8:24 AM CST reply actions  

I don't understand it

They rip the farm system, then when Wade makes a trade for a quality major league player with that same farm system, he’s ripped for that.

by timmy_ on Feb 27, 2010 8:32 AM CST reply actions  

I understand why sabermetric writers don’t like Ed Wade. He doesn’t fit their paradigm of a modern GM. However, when the level of criticism is ramped up to an unfair degree, their articles start to produce sympathy for Wade. I don’t know if they understand that or not. But, for a writer like Justice, who knows Wade and realizes that he is a decent guy who is working hard, writing an article in defense of Wade is a natural reaction.

by clack on Feb 27, 2010 8:43 AM CST reply actions  

Another funny thing you mention is Theo Epstein, agreed he is a pretty good gm but I am thinking if you gave Ed Wade 200 million instead of 95 million to spend and suddenly I think the critics would get off Ed’s back quite a bit.

by mitch4ya on Feb 27, 2010 9:19 AM CST reply actions  

Epstein has 200 million to spend?

That’s funny, because in 2009 their payrolls were 122m and 102m respectively. The difference was 138 and 88 the year prior, which is 50, but it’s still hardly the kind of payroll difference you’re talking about. This year, the difference may back around 50m or 60m, which is considerable but still hardly 110m. People seem to be under a mistaken impression that the Red Sox are somehow spending close to the Yankees, while there is an annual difference in spending of about 40-80m.

Additionally, when you consider the divisions, the difference between the ‘stros payroll and the Cubs is less than the difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox. Plus there is the benefit of having some punching bag teams in their division (I’m looking at you, 2009 Pirates and Cincinnati). And the Astros have been spending nearly as much as the Cards, while getting trounced by them. Even at 100m annually, I could easily imagine the Red Sox battling for the NL Central division. Conversely, I can’t think of 40m worth of players that would put the Astros as in an AL wild card berth. (I mean, imagine adding Lackey, Wolf, and Holliday to the Astros. They’re still missing a plus catcher, a top bullpen, and a trustworthy 5th starter.) In my opinion, the Astros have been an incomplete team for a few years now with no end in sight yet.

Ironically, I don’t think Wade is some horrible GM. His tenure in Philly built the base of what exists there now. I’m pretty sure there’s an ownership issue. The whole situation reminds me of the Orioles a few years back, where a team lingers around 0.500 claiming to be “in contention” rather than rebuilding. So I mean… the criticism of the team and system is well deserved I think. They’re not just a couple of players short of sewing up a postseason slot like the Twins. The only question is how much of that you blame on Wade.

by B N on Feb 27, 2010 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

As I understand it, the Red Sox are targeting their payroll to be just below the $170 million luxury tax threshold. The Astros’ budget will be around $95 million, so I would think the difference in 2010 is more like $70 million or so. Do I think the Astros could compete for a playoff berth in the AL if they had $70 million to spend? Yes, I do. And adding Lackey, Wolf and Holliday probably isn’t how I would do it. But save that for another day, because these are hypotheticals that can’t happen.

by clack on Feb 27, 2010 2:13 PM CST up reply actions  

First things first. “like listening to a Foodie discuss the fare at McDonalds.” Apt analogy. Clever, amusing, and accurate.

As far as the criticism of Ed Wade, I agree it’s misplaced. The only prospect I hated him for trading was Troy Patton, but that loss hasn’t been as bad as I feared. If there’s anything to criticize Wade for, it’s drafting high-floor, mid-ceiling players. I mean, I’m all for good defense, but our lineup is going to need some upside at some point. Are there any players in the system that can project (if things go well) to bat in the middle of the order in three years or so?

by texlex on Feb 27, 2010 9:39 AM CST reply actions  

I missed that foodie comment when I read this post. I see Keith Law as similar to Kahrl, and hey, he is a foodie. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kahrl was a foodie or had some other distraction, but his/her writing exhibits the same flaw as Law and Neyer and others often do, they don’t know the topic, but still have to generate copy.

Just as everyone here examines and questions the thinking of the BP piece, Kahrl writes stuff about the brewers that simply doesn’t make sense. I’m sure they’re great fun sitting around a fancy restaurant or a hip cafe, but they show ignorance of the MLB teams, never mind the farm systems.

by ol Pete on Feb 27, 2010 10:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Ed Wade

I think Wade has done exactly what McLane ordered him to do — start rebuilding the farm system and not finish last in the meantime. I would cheerfully accept a last-place finish if it meant a speedier rebuilding of the system, but I think McLane simply cannot stomach the idea of finishing last in baseball’s only six-team division and is willing to spend money to avoid that.

That’s why the Astros signed Pedro Feliz. That’s why they traded away three young pitchers and a competent position player for Miguel Tejada, a deal I hated even though they had to deal Scott because they are stuck with the millstone that is Carlos Lee’s contract. That’s why they signed Kaz Matsui. Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz were just attempts to get lucky, but they didn’t work out. Shawn Chacon didn’t work out. So they haven’t gotten better and they haven’t gotten younger. All they have done is lay some groundwork.

by rfs1962 on Feb 27, 2010 10:11 AM CST reply actions  

After reading article after article bashing The Astros and Ed Wade I am reminded of high school. When I was in high shcool if enough people started to say something, it became the consensus that it was true, regardless of the facts, and if anyone went against it they were not necessarily outcast, but definitely looked down upon.

This is similar to that considering I doubt that many of these industry experts have an above average working in-depth knowledge of our team or the timeline of events leading to our current position.

It just appears to be an “easy” story because there is hardly any legwork involved in jumping on a bandwagon to criticize.

The funny thing is, that in 2-3 years when we are likely younger, more organized, and better as an organization these writers will write the inevitable “Where did The Astros come from?”

by baggs on Feb 27, 2010 10:58 AM CST reply actions  

I think many people outside of the Astros fan base fail to rember the devestation known as Tim Purpura, however we will never be able to forget his incomptetence. I think the writers who jump on the “Hate Wade, It’s the cool thing to do” bandwagon forget how Purpura burried our organization 6 ft deep under and did’t stop there. I believe as many of you on this site also do, that Wade may not be the greatest GM in MLB he still has helped dig the this organization out of the ground. He is no second coming of Hunsicker, but hey he ain’t as bad as they come. Just think one more year of Purpura and we could have been the Pirates!

by Z-Dub on Feb 27, 2010 7:41 PM CST reply actions  

It's so weird

To go to a site where people actually approve of something Little Dicky Justice, Age 12 writes.

Football and baseball are totally different worlds.

I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.

by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 1, 2010 1:41 AM CST reply actions  

Don’t worry, Justice is still wrong most of the time about baseball, and flip-flops constantly. The fact that it’s his favorite sport simply means that, on occasion, he says something that’s correct.

by OremLK on Mar 1, 2010 6:17 AM CST up reply actions  

Thank you for restoring order to my world.

I really can’t stand that smug puke.

I'll eliminate you like I eliminate gluten from my diet.

by tehGrindCrusher on Mar 2, 2010 1:16 AM CST up reply actions  

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