Friday Astros Minor Thoughts
There's not a lot going on in the minors this week. Or, more aptly, my week was spent wrapped up in spring training and the start of the college baseball season. Didn't get as much time to surf the draft game as I'd like. I did post some video of my trip to the Aggie's ballpark last week and have a small scouting report over at Minor Musings, if you're interested.
But, we have business to get to. The big topic here is a pair of articles on minor league run environments and game recaps. Both are from The Hardball Times and both illustrate some great points about why it can be tough to follow minor league baseball sometimes.
This first article is a study done to look at whether there is a bias on the part of stringers covering games for MLBAM. The most disturbing part of this article is the fact that Huntsville stopped reporting line drives in 2009. That's pretty ridiculous, if you think about it. It's not hard to tell the difference between a ball hit up in the air and one hit on a line. But, I do think about this very thing every time I dig into those game recaps for the minor leagues. I've gotten some great information from these, but I'm really relying on whoever is keeping score in the game to get things right. I'm assuming this IS getting better, but it makes me want to qualify all the research I do on the minor leagues.
The other article goes a long way to solving the problem about which leagues are really 'hitter's leagues' and which are not. While the Texas League gets a bad rep as a hitter's it's dead center in the middle. In fact, the only two leagues the Astros play in that lean towards higher run totals are the California and Pacific Coast Leagues. Nothing groundbreaking there, but I was pleased to see the New York-Penn league listed as a low run environment. There were too many hitters to struggle there in 2009 for my liking. On the other hand, JD Martinez' success there makes me even more excited to follow his progress.
It was a sad day earlier this week when I learned that former Round Rock infielder Mark Saccomanno had signed with the Marlins organization. My dad and I are both huge Seinfeld fans. When Saccomanno was playing at Baylor, there were quite a few "You know my friend, Bob Saccomanno?" jokes flying around. After he got drafted by the Astros, I've kept an eye out on his progress mainly for that reason. I hope he can find success in Florida. If I could offer him some parting advice: Don't ever take astronaut pens from people and never sleep on the pull-out couch. It can only lead to trouble.
In other player signing news: former Astros prospect and University of Miami alum Charlton Jimerson signed with the Minnesota Twins. Jimerson had played in the independent Atlantic League in 2009. Though he had plenty of talent, Jimerson could never get over his strikeouts and a crowded Astros outfield. ... Another former Astro signed a minor league deal this week, as Eric Munson will play for San Diego's Triple-A affiliate in Portland. Munson was a part of that Astros team a while back which had all those former USC players on it.
Brian McTaggart 'breaks' a story (only light sarcasm implied, Mr. McTaggart) that Chris Johnson will open the season in Round Rock this season. This, of course, is because the Astros will be paying Pedro Feliz 4.5 million to man the hot corner in the pros. As I mentioned yesterday, Johnson's home run into Hunter Pence's windshield is a good sign, but I'm still not convinced he will ever have the power to be more than a useful bench guy in the majors.
And just a little draft note here: Is Jamison Taillon getting too much hype right now? Lots of high school pitchers throw in the upper 90s. How many keep throwing like that in the pros? Remember that kid from Marshall, Colt Griffin? The Kansas City Royals drafted him ninth overall in 2001 because he could hit 100 MPH in high school. He lasted five seasons in the minors and never got a taste of Triple-A. In fact, he only threw 87 total innings in Double-A. Why don't we just slow our roll a little with this kid, okay?
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I think Saccomanno might have made it in the majors if he could have played decent defense at 3d base. A couple of years ago, when the A’s plucked Jack Cust out of the AAAA pool with great success, the Hardball Times had an article about identifying AAAA players with a similar profile, and asked readers for suggestions. I emailed Saccomanno’s name as a suggestion, and his name appeared as a Jack Cust-type player in their follow up article. In 2007 (age 27), he had a .807 OPS at RR, and 2008 (age 28) he had a .863 OPS.
As for Chris Johnson, I don’t know what to think about his chances in the major leagues in the future. There aren’t a whole lot of bench players whose only defensive ability is 3d base (generally, they would have to be good hitters). I kind of feel sorry for him when he talks about the need to overcome his own tendency to avoid taking walks. At his current age, it’s unlikely he can totally reverse course in terms of plate discipline. It’s possible he could make some marginal improvement in his walks, though. What kind of change would make him a better prospect to be a starting 3d baseman? A big power year would be his best chance. If he could put up something like Saccomanno’s 2008 season (27 HRs and .523 SLG), he might look like the 2011 starter at 3d. The only time Johnson has exceeded a .500 SLG is 2008 in AA. It also wouldn’t hurt if he could work on his defense, so that he can become a plus defender at 3d base. Scouts apparently think he has the tools to be a good fielder, but by all accounts he currently isn’t a good defensive 3d baseman. I don’t see how he could become a starting 3d baseman, if he is likely to be a .700 OPS player, unless he also is a slick fielder.
I don't think its always so easy to distinguish LDs and FBs
I also don’t think there is any reason to believe MLB data more than minor league. I think once the season starts, it would be interesting to have whoever wants to, judge as the balls are hit and also throw in the soft/medium/hard classification that is referred to as “velocity.”
Taillon is drawing rave reviews that show scouts are absolutely gushing over the kid. However, having watched him pitch, the guy has amazing control, his fastball is ridiculous and deceptive. Taillon has a frame that looks like he is ready to pitch in the majors today, but he’ll obviously need some seasoning in the minors before breaking in. It seems like there is a large amount of “projectability” that goes into scouting, it looks like there isn’t a lot of need for projectability with Taillon.
There are plenty of prep pitchers that have a lot of promise (A.J. Cole is the other off the top of my head) that projects out as an ace as well. Is there a lot of hype around these kids? Yes. But I still have yet to see someone as hyped as Strasburg last year and Harper this year, but that seems to be the way scouting and projection are going these days.
Wouldn’t it be kind of neat if we took Taillon and Rick Hague in the first round? A couple of Houston kids who are looking like reasonable consensus picks for #8 and #19 (maybe #33 for Hague, depending).
Obviously the front office shouldn’t pick based on that. But it would be cool as a bonus if that were to happen.
If the Astros could draft Taillon that would be great, however I don’t think he’d give a “hometown discount” or sign easier because he’s local. Taillon currently has a commitment to Rice and it will probably take quite a bit to get him to spurn the scholarship. Personally I don’t see Taillon lasting until #8, I’m pretty sure he goes in the top 5.
Hague is an interesting pick because he played well for Team USA @ 3rd base, and we could definitely use a good 3rd baseman. Hague could probably be had @ pick #33, but if the Astros really like him, it would be best to take him @ #19.
Personally I’d like to see the Astros take a pitcher with the first pick (Taillon, Cole, Sale) and then take the BPA available. So for instance if we ended up taking Colon @ #19 (move him to 2B where he projects) and Hague @ #33 (move him to 3B) and considering that both are college players, they could probably be up in the majors within two years.
I don’t think Colon will be around at 19 and your right Taillon will go in the first 5, although i’d be ecstatic if he we took him with our first pick. AJ Cole is a possibility with the first pick. But with Sale, not likely. Bobby Heck has a strong tendency away from drafting college pitchers early. I think it was AstrosAndy who did a great series on the tendencies of bobby heck and he hasn’t drafted a college pitcher before an overall pick in the 70s i think.
Supposedly scouts think Hague has the abilities to stick at shortstop, so I suspect he could play anywhere on the field for us and do okay defensively. If Jio Mier is the shortstop of the future, maybe Hague joins him at Class A at either second or third base.
The bigger question is how his bat (particularly his power) will translate to wooden bats. If he’s not going to be hitting 20 HR maybe 2B is a better fit.
And I agree with IronM, I very much doubt Colon drops out of the top ten, let alone all the way to 19.
Probably wishful thinking with Colon, but some people are high on him and some are not. We’re still the rest of the college season away before the draft so who know what can happen.
I’d also be ecstatic if Taillon were still there @ #8, but I’m equally as high on Cole. I know Heck doesn’t draft college pitchers early, but Sale has the frame and projectibility that Heck likes, so who knows. I did read the series shortly after I posted earlier, its great work.
With three of the first 33 picks in the draft the Astros should be able to add some quality players to their farm system and hopefully get some players that can start pushing the last few draft classes upward toward the majors.

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