TCB Community Projections #5: Paulino and Matsui

Felipe del Guidici Paulino
4.45 ERA 150 IP 145 K, 68 BB, 18 HR

This is where I depart from the range of ERA predicted by the projection systems. (Interestingly, though, the projection systems predict a FIP closer to my predicted ERA.) Paulino’s 2009 tRA as a starter (4.63) and x-FIP (4.10) are consistent with this prediction.

Kaz Matsui
450 PA BA,OBP, SLG.285, .340, .410, .750 OPS 23 SB SB% 89%

Paulino: 145 IP, 4.52 ERA, 133 K, 60 BB

Matsui: 428 PA, .271 BA, 8 HR, .739 OPS, 17 SB

Matsui 350 AB 17 2B 2 3B 6 HR 29 BB 100 H 12 SB 3 CS .286/.346/.397

Paulino 90 IP 108 H 40 BB 85 K 17 HR 4.95 ERA
Paulino has no success as a starter 6.25 ERA in 10 starts and an ERA right at 3.25 in the bulpen.

Hadn’t seen you here in awhile, Shamus.

By the way, Paulino’s career ERA is twice as high as a starter than reliever. Same result if you just look at 2009.

Paulino – 4.60 ERA 160 IP

Matsui: 375 PAs. .270/.340/.405

I’m surprised at a lot of these projections for Matsui. The batting line seems really overly optimistic to me. I never got around to Norris and Lee, but I’ll do this one.

Felipe Paulino:
4.05 ERA
188 IP
172 K
60 BB
24 HR

I’m projecting a breakout season for Felipe. He will pitch a lot and perform well while doing it. There were three things in 2009 that caused him to do otherwise: Cooper’s mismanagement (bouncing between AAA, the big league rotation, and the bullpen, never knowing when he was going to start), an unsustainably high BABIP, and a high HR rate. The first has been corrected with the hiring of Mills, the second will regress naturally, and the third will be met with some natural regression and some improvement in pitch location thanks to the hiring of Brad Arnsberg.

Kaz Matsui:
590 PA
.270/.324/.376
21 SB, 84%

I’m projecting a .020 point increase in his BABIP and similar increases in his batting average, OBP, and SLG. I’m also going out on a limb and saying that he will not miss significant time for once—just the occasional short stretch of games from a bruise or a strained muscle. He doesn’t seem to have chronic injuries and I don’t believe that a guy can be constantly missing significant amounts of time… it’s got to achieve normalcy at some point.