Berkman and his contract

by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Feb 24, 2010 5:42 PM CST

Lance Berkman is prepared to move on if the Astros decline his $15 million club option for 2011.

"If they don’t pick up my option, then to me that says they may like me to come back at a discount but they don’t really want me," said Berkman. "If that’s the case, then I’ll just see what else it’s out there." The 34-year-old first baseman hasn't ruled out retirement, but said he would most likely continue player. He batted .274/.399/.509 with 25 homers and 80 RBI last season, and while those are fine numbers, they are a long way from the Berkman we've come to know. He would need a monster season for the Astros to even consider it. Source: Houston Chronicle

From rotoworld.com

Thoughts...

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It would be a big mistake not to pick up Berkman's 2011 option.

Even if Berkman has another “down” year in 2010 like he did in 2009, $15 million would be about what he’s worth based on WAR alone. According to Fangraphs, Berkman was worth $14.4 million dollars, based on his performance of 3.2 WAR. Even a slightly better year for Berkman makes him more than worth the money being spent on him. And all signs point to Berkman having a better year in 2010, but you all know this.

If he had a worse year than 2009? It’s hard to imagine (although it’s happened before) but I think it’d still be silly for the club to let him go. Of course, the big issue being fan backlash. He’s been with the club for his entire 10+ year career and is one of the most well known players in Astros history, poised to break team records. Most people would be pissed if he was let go.

And even if he was let go, I believe he’d get at least $15 million a year (if not more) based on his 10 year track record. His option is a definite pick-up.

by entropic soul on Feb 24, 2010 7:13 PM CST reply actions

I think the Astros pick up his option unless Berkman just crashes, and that’s fairly unlikely. McLane wants Berkman to end his career in Houston. Berkman knows this, and it’s probably a little bit of gamemanship on Berkman’s part too.

by clack on Feb 24, 2010 11:16 PM CST reply actions

What do you guys think it would take to extend Puma one more year?

I’m of the opinion that since O and Lee both have those giants thru 2012, Houston will be precluded from rebuilding until 2013. Without signing any free agents (and factoring in expected arbitration raises), payroll for 2012 is at ~$85M. Not much room there given the holes at 1B, 2B, and 3B. If Lance signs for another $15M that probably exhausts the funds.

by Snake Diggity on Feb 25, 2010 1:24 PM CST reply actions

The rebuilding process has already begun.

by Timothy De Block on Feb 25, 2010 1:34 PM CST up reply actions

Hmm

I agree the farm is being rebuilt, but the big club is still trying to be competitive and has ~$50M committed to O, Berkman, and Lee. Until those contracts are off the books, its going to be tough to really start over.

by Snake Diggity on Feb 25, 2010 1:36 PM CST up reply actions

Why do they have to start over though?

You’ve got Pence, Bourn in the OF, Mier at SS, Castro at C, Norris, Wandy, and Lyles in the rotation. Assuming Oswalt and Berkman are resigned that’s a pretty good core right there. A few free agents here a few prospects their they could be contending in 2013.

by Timothy De Block on Feb 25, 2010 1:53 PM CST up reply actions

On reflection, I think the most likely possibility...

is that Berkman is extended for, say, 3 years. That would allow the Astros to reduce the option salary in 2011 by giving Berkman assurance of more years. It’s important to note that Berkman would be owed a $2 million buy out if the option isn’t picked up. So that means the effective cost of the option is $13 million. This approach would be consistent with McLane’s stated goal of keeping Berkman an Astros player for his career, and allows the Astros to get rid of both the option and the buyout by giving Berkman some future security. Ideally, the Astros could try to trade Lee during the window available next year. But that’s a long shot.

by clack on Feb 25, 2010 2:11 PM CST up reply actions

berkman

the big question is berkman’s health… seems like he has continuous problems…one after another….he is aging… last yr was ok… but not for 15m..salary…his obp was very good.. he gets walked a lot… i wouldnt pick up the option… i would decline and then offer him about half of that… and if he wants to move on…then move on.. he can be replaced….magnus

by Mike HJALM on Mar 2, 2010 11:10 AM CST reply actions

Actually according to FanGraphs statistically he was worth $14.4mil which isn’t to far off from his current salary, this in what many would consider a down year for Berkman. In 2008 he was worth $31.1mil yet was paid less than half that at $14.5mil.

With Berkman statistical pattern from year to year I expect a bounce back year for Berkman some where in the $20mil, dollar amount range.

by Timothy De Block on Mar 2, 2010 1:05 PM CST up reply actions

Because the Astros would owe a $2 million buy out if they don’t pick up the option, the cost of the option is $13 million. So his 2009 WAR level, if you assume it is likely to be exceeded, would exceed the buyout cost.

by clack on Mar 2, 2010 1:13 PM CST up reply actions

new pitcher..and berkman contract

with berkman it depends on injuries…he is a great hitter…very good defensive lb…if obp is .400 all is ok…. we got the new pitcher we needed… now the rotation looks real good… the lineup is good…GOOD DEFENSIVELY…ok offensively…. bullpen is a-1.. bench is good… i do not believe that nl central is that good!!! maybe the cards are…but they lost some good hands… big hitter they spent tons on is one dimensional… pujols has injury problems of his own…after that ??? astro p[itching is deeper…magnus

by Mike HJALM on Mar 10, 2010 11:40 AM CST reply actions

You said "he can be replaced"....

my question is, by who? Power hitters don’t grow on trees. And another thing I have to disagree with you on is our rotation. IMO, it’s anything BUT deep. Meyers has too many ??? about his health, the chances of Wandy repeating last year’s performance are slim, Roy has his own issues with being consistent. The FO needed to pick up at least 2 lights out starters in the off season…..they failed to do so. I hate to say it guys, but we’re in for another long year :-(

by titansfan4ever on Mar 12, 2010 2:29 PM CST up reply actions

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