TCB Community Projections #4: Lee and Norris
by David Coleman on Feb 23, 2010 5:00 PM CST
in Stat Geeky
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PrintAgain, a day late and a dollar short on this feature. Still, let's get the projections rolling on Carlos Lee and Bud Norris.
Here's a quick summary of the rest of our projections:
Lance Berkman: 613 PA, .295/.409/.533, 8 SB, 66 SB%
Michael Bourn: 625 PA, .272/.345/.388, 59 SB, 83 SB%
Hunter Pence: 625 PA, .290/.354/.504, 6 SB 65.3 SB%
Roy Oswalt: 3.71 ERA, 191 IP, 142 K, 42 BB, 18 HR
Wandy Rodriguez: 3.50 ERA, 193 IP, 179 K, 59 BB, 21 HR
Brett Myers: 4.35 ERA, 152 2/3 IP, 106 K, 40 BB, 17 HR
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Carlos Lee is one of the easier players to predict because he is about as consistent as they come. I fear that one day he will just fall off a cliff (a la David Ortiz), but so far it hasn’t happened.
Lee .305, .349, .505, OPS .854; 57 XBH; 28 HR; 2 SB, SB% 100%.
Norris 4.65 ERA, 160 IP, 142 K, 62 BB, 17 HR.
I see a slight bit of regression for Norris, but the numbers above would be solid for a pitcher of his age.
those projections, taken as a whole, are pretty optimistic IMHO.
Each of those guys has a chance to do that well, but overall I think it’s wishful thinking.
As far as overly optimistic:
- Pence’s SLG%
-Wandy’s ERA
-Myers’ ERA
and that’s about it, in my opinion.
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 24, 2010 11:28 AM CST up reply actions
Really, though, that’s only a 28 point jump in slugging percentage for Pence. Looking at last season’s numbers, I really don’t think these were too optimistic. We are dealing with a small sample size of actual projections, but other than that, it’s fairly realistic.
by David Coleman on Feb 24, 2010 11:42 AM CST up reply actions
on the whole i completely agree
i was just looking at which projections could be construed as being overly optimistic, for the sake of argument
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 24, 2010 11:53 AM CST up reply actions
Pence's OPS and SLG is almost exactly equal to Bill James' projection.
Granted that Bill James’ projection system has always really liked Pence, ever since he came into the league. I think some fans are expecting a break out season for Pence, and others aren’t sure, so the average turns out to be in between.
I don't think it's too optimistic
But I’m trying to fight off the temptation to be ridiculously optimistic about Norris, which is why it’s taking me so long to post my own projections.
Other than Michael Bourn, I don’t think those forecasts are really very far off from the mainstream projection systems. (And, even for Bourn, it’s mostly a case of a wide range of forecasts out there.) I am mostly referring to ERA and OPS when I say that, though, because projections tend to be less reliable at greater level of detail. Maybe the forecasts tend to be closer to the more optimistic projection systems…I would have to be more systematic before I say that, though.
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