How bad will Carlos Lee's contract be going forward?
by OremLK on Feb 18, 2010 9:38 AM CST
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PrintJohnny Damon, 36, is looking to sign a contract in the next few days. Rumor has it that he will be getting somewhere in the $4-5 million range per year, perhaps on a two-year deal.
Over the next three years, Carlos Lee, 33, will be making $18.5 million per year playing for your Houston Astros.
Lee's cumulative WAR value over the last four years? 11.9. How about Johnny Damon?
11.9.
Depressing, isn't it? And before you point this out, yes, I'm aware that Lee is three years younger. He's also in terrible shape, while Damon is still reasonably fit. The market has changed since Lee was given his contract, so I'm not pointing this out to cast blame on anybody in the Astros organization. I'm just giving everyone a nice a dash of cold water at the sobering thought that the team will be paying $37 million over the next two years for production it could have had for $10 million on the open market.
Ouch.
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Spring Training is starting soon
Nothing can dash my excitement!
by Timothy De Block on Feb 18, 2010 1:36 PM CST reply actions
The market for older, poor fielding LFers...
has really hit bottom. Damon is an example. Jermaine Dye, who has yet to sign a contract and will probably end up at $2 – $3 million level, is another example. Dye is a bad fielding outfielder, but he did hit 28 HRs last year. Jason Bay is the exception—even though it could just be a misjudgement by the Mets. Bobby Abreu signing for $5 million last year is another example. (If the Carlos Lee hadn’t been under contract, I bet that Wade would have signed Abreu.) Heck, Branyan can play LF (30 HRs for the Mariners), and his WAR was about the same as Lee last year—and he probably would cost in the $2 million range.
Unfortunate timing of the market by the Astros. The off-season prior to 2007 was the high water mark for payouts to 30-something outfielders (Soriano, Lee, Matthews).
I wonder how Carlos would do minus 40 lbs or so
maybe this Spring or the next he’ll be the ‘best shape of his life’ story
So you stated that Damon and Lee’s WAR value are the same at 11.9 over the past four years. I tend to think that last year was a fluke year for Damon, not anything he did personally but because he played half of his games in a home run launching pad that is the New Yankee Stadium. What would their WAR values be not including last year? If you dont want to figure it out just point me in the right direction as I read all the time but don’t always know what sites you guys get your info from. Thanks.
Miss-placed Houstonian living and going to school in the wilderness of Wyoming. Fresno St. 28 - Wyoming 35 (2 OT)!!! Hands down best game I have ever been to.
Well, FanGraphs is the site that calculates WAR, you can find it on every player page near the bottom.
Damon’s WAR for just 2006-2008 was 8.8, while Lee’s was 9.4. I do agree that Damon was helped by the new Yankee Stadium last year, by the way, however you also have to remember that he plays in the toughest division in baseball and was likely facing better pitching than Lee was.
astro status
yeah… i am a long time astronut… i thought 2 or 3 yrs ago that astros should have rebuilt around oswalt…rodriquez…pence… trade berkman..lee…everyone else…load up on minor leaguers….do a complete rebuild… never get rid of ace pitchers… astros should do this now….just a few changes now might work…. i would trade lee to the giants… for zito…. and see if they will throw in that 5 tool outfielder they have in AAA…giants might jump for this…they are stuck with a gigantic salary on zito…for next few years…. even steven deal…we could throw in paulino… i believe myers is going to be good…oswalt?? rodriquez should be good…if losing arb doesnt mix him up…I NEVER WOULD HAVE ARBITRATED HIS CASE..i think norris is going to be good for a long time, maybe not great,,,,but good…. he is a bulldog.. reminds me of harnisch and portugal…and in some ways oswalt… manzilla is going to be ok…good on defense…better than tejada….he will hit ok…matsui is ok…. we should be paying him 2mil instead of 5mil…astro defense is going to be good…. hey,,,, astronuts…remember..last yr in late july we were 2 games out of lst…1 game behind the cards… thank you lord for letting us be in the nl central…we have a good chance…in the land of mediocrity….magnus
I wouldn’t trade Paulino for Zito straight up. I wouldn’t trade Lee for Zito unless the Giants send about $20 million back; the Zito contract is really bad and has more money left than Lee’s. Zito is a mediocre pitcher at this point, and isn’t likely to improve the Astros’ starting rotation. He is a LH flyball pitcher who runs the risk of being lit up like a rocket in MMP.
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