Out of options and looking for work: Could Joaquin Arias or Felipe Lopez be a solution at SS for the Astros?
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 17, 2010 6:00 AM CST
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PrintFirst of all, yes, Joaquin and Alberto Arias are in fact brothers, so bringing Joaquin into the fold would be a cool story on that front alone.
I'm going to use the term "out of options" during this article to refer to Joaquin Arias and others. If you're not familiar with the term, the concept is explained here. I'll quote the parts of the article that are pertinent for a player like Arias, who has not accumulated five years of professional baseball service:
When a player is added to the 40-man roster, his club has three "options," or three separate seasons during which the club may to move him to and from the minor leagues without exposing him to other clubs. A player on the 40-man roster playing in the minors is on optional assignment, and within an option season, there is no limit on the number of times a club may demote and recall a player...
After three options are exhausted, the player is out of options. Beginning with the next season, he must clear waivers before he may be sent to the minors again.
Now, back to the business at hand...
As far as adding talented players this late in the game, Arias can offer both depth if Tommy Manzella were to show that he can hang with the big boys, and if not, he has done nothing of late but play well in Winter Ball, and offer the Rangers yet another young player who could yield a promising return in a trade.
I understand that 1) the Astros don't have much to offer the Rangers that they don't already have five of and 2) we complain all the time about how Ed Wade jumps the gun in certain situations, i.e.- signing Geoff Blum and Pedro Feliz so early, thus eliminating the possibility that players like Miguel Tejada and Felipe Lopez could sign here cheaper at some point later in the off season.
As DQ has pointed out, the Astros may be acting a bit presumptuous in giving the reigns at short stop to a player like Tommy Manzella, who in truth would himself more suited as a late inning replacement player. Joaquin Arias would at least provide depth this season, even if he doesn't turn out to be anything special. Having a player with as much upside as Arias does, at a position where the Astros' cupboard is absolutely barren, cannot be a bad thing.
Defensively, Arias played 111 games last season as the Rangers AAA shortstop, and John Sickles had this assessment of his all around game:
He always looks good on defense when I see him; above average range, good arm, soft hands. He runs well and is very toolsy physically, but his bat hasn't grown since he's reached Triple-A. Turns 25 in September, and right now he looks like a guy who is going to bounce around between the majors and Triple-A for the next ten years.
The fact that he is still going to be under team control for the immediate future, and would provide a back up plan where the Astros don't really have one, is a major selling point for me.
Texas will probably look to play him as much as possible during Spring Training in order to give other teams a look at what he can do on the field. After this period, it appears that the Rangers could release him which means he'd have to clear waivers before making it back to AAA Oklahoma. Assuming that the Rangers' desire is to create space on the 40 man roster, a lower level minor leaguer may be what it takes to land Arias. Maybe a position player from Lexington/Lancaster would be their asking price? What do y'all think?
As far as Felipe Lopez is concerned, I realize he isn't a shortstop, but I think the skill set he does have: a consistently good line drive hitter, a versatile defender who could conceivably play all the spots defensively save catcher and center-fielder, would make up for sort of being a square peg in a round hole.
With veteran players in Kaz Matsui and Pedro Feliz playing second and third bases, the risk of injury is fairly high (as if you didn't know that already with Matsui), so in that sense he is a perfect fit. For a team that is unwilling to spend much more money, this is a signing that may be worth the $3 million or so that it would take to add him to the club. His statistics are sure to regress from his .310/.383/.427 season last year (fueled in large part by a .360 BABIP), but even then it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities for him to be around a 1 win player at shortstop. That's considering a decreased amount of playing time and his move to shortstop for the Astros.
If the cost to the farm system to sign Arias, or the cost in $ to sign Lopez leave you wary, here are a few more interesting infielders that are in the same boat as Mr. Arias:
Eric Patterson (A's), Jeff Baker (Cubs), Brandon Wood (Angels), Andy LaRoche (Pirates), Clint Barmes (Rockies), Willy Aybar (Rays)
As we get closer and closer to the beginning of real baseball in April, more names will pop up, and Ed Wade should be keeping his ear close to the ground on this front, no matter how Tommy Manzella is performing.
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Keppinger, Lopez, shortstop defense and UZR sample sizes
Although Lopez was never able to stick at shortstop, I do want to say that I strongly believe he would be better than Keppinger on defense by at least half a win. Their numbers at SS:
Felipe Lopez: 602 games, -11.2 UZR/150
Jeff Keppinger: 166 games, -17.4 UZR/150
As you can see, Lopez is better than Keppinger by 6.4 runs. Now, the sample size at shortstop is not fully reliable for Keppinger, so let’s look at second base:
Felipe Lopez: 300 games, +2.6 UZR/150
Jeff Keppinger: 61 games, -5.2 UZR/150
And third base:
Felipe Lopez: 95 games, +6.0 UZR/150
Jeff Keppinger: 102 games, -7.1 UZR/150
As we can see, the conclusion here is inescapable: Felipe Lopez is the better infielder, and likely to be a significant defensive upgrade over Keppinger at any position. My subjective assessment here is in agreement: Watching Keppinger last year, I was struck by how below average his range is, how his first step is average-at-best, and how his positioning and instincts are problematic. He doesn’t make many mistakes once he gets to the ball—he has soft hands and an accurate arm—but his weaknesses are significant.
Here’s the thing—I don’t think either of them would be a good starting shortstop. I want Manzella to succeed, bat well enough to stick in the lineup and be an average-or-better defender at shortstop. However, I would feel much more comfortable with Felipe Lopez backing him up. I also think Lopez would be good to compete with Matsui for starting second baseman. Both are switch hitters without strong platoon splits, so both would be very nice additions to the bench.
Adding Lopez strengthens the infield considerably, and I think he would be worth the $2-3M he’s likely to ask for. I also wouldn’t mind seeing him on a multi-year deal.
I’m not really convinced that Lopez will be any better than Keppinger at shortstop. The fact that teams quit playing Lopez at shortstop tells me something. He is 38 runs over his career at shortstop, according to the Fielding Bible metric. His last full season at shortstop he was -16 runs (same source). The +/ metric for Lopez at 2d base in 2008 was -10 runs It may well be the Fielding Bible which I remember calling Lopez one of the worst starting shortstops in baseball.The problem with comparing these two players’ defensive results is that both have played several positions, resulting in sample sizes which are inadequate for drawing firm conclusions. The sample size which is big enough to draw a firm conclusion is Lopez’s shortstop playing time and it indicates he is bad. I suspect that Lopez and Keppinger are about the same defensively. Lopez may have a tad bit more range than Keppinger, but will likely be more error prone.
I’m not saying Lopez is a good defensive shortstop. I think he’s probably pretty bad. But let’s not forget that nobody has been jumping to play Keppinger at shortstop, either.
I haven’t looked at the Fielding Bible numbers, so it’s interesting that you mention them; is there any way to see them online, or do you have to buy the book?
I just know that in the numbers I have seen, UZR, Felipe Lopez scores significantly better at every position.
billjamesonline.net has the fielding bible stats (+/-) as well as all of james’ other stats. It requires a subscription (which is small, by the way…I think something like $9 a quarter).
Yeah, both are poor shortstops, according to fielding bible, too. It’s just that with those sample sizes, it’s easy to say that both are bad, but hard to say one is better than the other.
I like Lopez, and I’ve mentioned quite a bit over the off-season (I preferred him to Feliz for the 3d base position). But I have reservations about his ability to play shortstop effectively, and so I’m not sure he provides a safety net or replacement for Manzella. He hasn’t played a significant amount at shortstop since 2006/2007. When he was the starting shortstop for the Reds, he had a reputation as one of the 2 or 3 worst defensive shortstops in baseball, which is why he was traded to the Nats. Lopez is a better defender at 2d base and 3d base. I’m not sure Lopez is an improvement over Keppinger at shortstop from a defensive standpoint. Despite my reservation, if there is a way to pick up Lopez on the cheap, I am for it. As a practical matter, it likely would mean that the Astros have to release or trade Keppinger (unless the Astros go with only one back up outfielder, which seems unlikely).
I had the same thought about Willy Aybar, who is on your list, but I found that he has played little shortstop in his career. Ditto for Eric Patterson, who has never played shortstop. Wood and LaRoche are scheduled to be starters on their respective teams.
The idea of picking up the Rangers’ Arias is interesting (and I didn’t realize he was Alberto’s brother). If Manzella is so bad in spring training that the Astros decide to leave him off the 25 man roster, perhaps they could pick up Arias off waivers toward the late stages of the spring to replace him. Other than a scenario like that, the Astros face a similar problem as the Rangers if they get Arias: finding a spot on the 25 man roster. I don’t see the Astros releasing Keppinger or Blum in order to sign an uncertain player like Arias.
Another player similar to Arias who could be available is Paul Janisch with the Reds. The Reds signed Orlando Cabrera to play shortstop, and they have other players in the utility infield competition. Janisch is a bit like Manzella in that his defensive reputation is greater than his offensive skill. But I think Janisch may be a better bet.
Joaquin
Sounds like a bit of a stretch, and I believe the Astros already have someone of a similar caliber in Edwin Maysonet.
by Timothy De Block on Feb 17, 2010 7:45 AM CST reply actions
Too much of a hassle
It seems like most outside options at SS will offer very similar qualities to our Manzella. Meaning either good D and poor stick or a better stick and poor D. Adding that it would likely cost us something in the form of $3-$4MM or minor prospects makes a move to one of these guys is less appealing. (The $4MM is combining the cost of Lopez and the $1.5MM we would lose by cutting Kepp or Blum)
The only way I would really so go for another SS is if we can find one that offers at least average performance on both sides of the ball. I’ve mentioned before that I like Jed Lowrie as that guy. As unlikely as that trade may be, that would be the type of guy we should be looking at, IMO.
Opinions of a Ranger fan, taken from my Facebook wall:
Joaquin Arias came over in the A-rod trade from the Yankees…he was supposed to be the bee’s knees but a shoulder injury two years ago really cost him playing time and a lot of his reputation. All the talk about him the past few years has been whether or not his shoulder can hold up and if it’s strong enough to make the throws from SS to 1B. He … See Morespent some time at 2b in the majors last year because of worry about his arm strength…the tools are supposed to be there but I don’t see how he stays on the 40 man roster after Spring Training.
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 17, 2010 11:22 AM CST reply actions
Very simply, how much is he going to cost?
That will be the main question. Lets not forget that the Orioles are in the same boat as the Astro’s as far a s needing a young SS.
How much would the Astros be willing to give for him?
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
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