TCB Community Projection #2: Wandy Rodriguez & Michael Bourn
by David Coleman on Feb 10, 2010 6:00 AM CST
in Stat Geeky
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Just a reminder, there's still time to make your projections for Oswalt and Berkman here.
Feel free to add whatever numbers or forecasts you'd like. So we have something to compare, for hitters let's include total plate appearances, a slash line, stolen bases and SB percentage and extra-base hits. For pitchers, let's go with total innings, ERA/FIP (whichever you'd prefer), strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. Outside of that, you can put in whatever you'd like.
Next up in our little projection project is Wandy Rodriguez and Michael Bourn.
Sidenote: Do we have a good nickname for Bourn yet? He has none listed on BR, I don't remember hearing any catchy ones on TV or the radio last season. Heck, even Milo really hasn't given him one. We need to rectify this, TCBers. Go to work.
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Wandy and the Bourn Identity
Wandy Rodriguez: 199 IP; 3.75 ERA; 189 K; 60 BB; 23 HRs.
I see pretty much more of the same. I think his ERA may regress a bit from last year, but he will still be a good No. 2 starter. I am predicting an uptick in K/9 and HR/9 with perhaps an improvement in W/L record to perhaps 16-9.
Michael Bourn: 600 PA; .279 BA; .350 OBP; .400 SLG; .750 OPS; 51 XBH.
Bourn is harder to predict because his history is brief, and we don’t know for sure whether to classify last year as a break out or not. My prediction sees a downtick in batting average and OBP, but a significant increase in slugging. I think his power is on an upward path right now. He won’t be a HR slugger, but he will improve his doubles, and maybe add an extra triple or two.
Alright
Bourn:
630 PA; .275 BA, .347 OBP; .375 SLG; .722 OPS.
Wandy:
185IP; 3.65 ERA; 171 K; 54 BB, ??HR.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
Projections
I don’t think Wandy’s numbers will be as good as they were last year. Mainly cause I’m hoping the rest of the rotation will pick up the slack, which they didn’t do last year. Consequently, Wandy felt like it was up to him last year. I don’t think he’ll be the only one producing this year. So if he relaxes a little this year, his numbers could slip, but not much. As far as nicknames, I’m going with “Bourn to be Wild” mainly cause I see him stealing alot more bases this year, and he’s got the speed to do it. I think Steppenwolf would be proud!!
by titansfan4ever on Feb 10, 2010 12:27 PM CST reply actions
I seriously doubt that Wandy’s success had anything to do with him “feeling” like it was all up to him. Home runs, injuries and fatigue all could cause him to decline next year, but other guys picking up the slack and reducing the pressure will not.
by seanbergmanrules on Feb 10, 2010 1:07 PM CST up reply actions
Here goes:
Bourn to Run:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3t9SfrfDZM
.272/.343/.385, 6 homers, 55 SB
The Magic Wand’s theme song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymh1o09vRWE
180 IP, 14-9, 3.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 170 K
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Feb 10, 2010 12:34 PM CST reply actions
Bourn's nickname
Michael “Usain” Bourn
as in Bolt
Well done
Sir
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Feb 10, 2010 3:21 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Wandy:
ERA: 3.31
IP: 210
SO: 195
BB: 61
HR: 20
Wandy is more less the same pitcher as in 2009, but the improved defense behind him keeps his ERA from regressing much and allows him to go a little deeper into games. His control also improves by a slight tick as his velocity and strikeout rate go down a little.
Bourn:
PA: 670
Slash line: .276/.352/.378
SB: 74
SB% 87
Defensive runs above average: +10
Bourn’s BABIP regresses slightly, but he adds a few more extra base hits, walks, and stolen bases to make up for it.
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