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So Much Whining. . . I'm Taking Out the Trash

A couple weeks ago, I think, I was ready to write a big long piece about why Barmes was an amazing pick up.  Part of this is because the Rox were the only professional team anywhere near southeast Idaho, so I happen to have watched a few games, and partly because, as previously stated, our options at SS are non-existent.  Instead I waited, knowing that the real storm was coming. Now it's here.

Star-divide

So, what is this storm?  Because I don't do drama well, you probably read the title and know that it's a storm of whining. I'd use other words, but as this may be seen by children I will likely only cuss when Albert, Matt, and Lance go back-to-back-to-back off Lyles who gets his midseason call up this year, no later than the first week of June I'd wager.

Back on topic: why the whining? We haven't made any moves, I get it. I follow MLBTR religiously and I'm sick of seeing us mentioned in connection with everyone from the other CLee to some Australian kid with too many names. I know his name, you know his name, allow me my pettiness. The next post I want to read about the Astros is we signed somebody. I don't care if it's we signed Vlad Guerrero to a 10/200 contract to play CF. Just show me that our front office has a pulse.

But why the whining? We knew we were broke coming into this offseason. Even after unloading a bunch of salary theres a recession, some say it's over, but i still can't find a job, and on top of that the team is being shopped. I'm ready to jump on every bandwagon out there that says spend some money, win some games, and that will make us more marketable, especially when the estimates I've heard have Drayton wanting something like twice what the team is valued at.  I'm no fool, but a Comcast contract and a big screen don't add 300-400mil onto your teams value.

We knew we were broke, we knew we were "rebuilding" but we still whine. The three things I hate hearing about most:

1. Barmes is a nobody. Ok, well, he's not a superstar, but he's solid, and he's a pull hitter playing 81 games with a shallow porch in left. Punch some over the wall for me, Clint. He's also a solid defender, and a great team mate. Why are we hating on this guy?

1.b. Worthy of mentioning, but not really as a separate note, Paulino is gone, and good riddance. The two guys I was sick of giving rope to long after they'd hung themselves was Manzella and Paulino, and now they're both gone, essentially. What pisses me off is the people whining about wanting him back or feeling like we got screwed giving up his canon for a nobody. Stats don't lie. His canon was all powder and no shot.

2. This one I heard today. People on the team website whining because Wade said he wasn't gonna sign a left fielder because he didn't wanna force Carlos Lee to move down to 1B and bump Brett. Some had said he hadn't done anything to warrant being a Major League player yet, so why were we pinning our hopes on him.  If anyone deserves that question it's Castro. A ceiling doesn't mean jack if the player never reaches it. It's all hypothetical.  What we do know is that Wallace has dominated the minors and while he struggled last year he will be a great every day 1B this year as he makes adjustments and starts making pitchers pay.

3. Why can't we sign "insert big name free agent here"? I get it, I want a whole team of Cliff Lee's and Carl Crawford's and Jayson Werth's. I was begging Wade to make one of these deals, ideally Crawford, but then I ran out of Jameson, fell asleep, and woke up clear headed again. Let's look at this realistically. The only one of those three likely to be worth their contract is Crawford.

Werth is a professional hitter, no doubt, and he'll likely be a great value for a couple of years, but he'll be 32 shortly after the start of the season, and it goes down hill quick. There just aren't many hitters out there that are worth, or Werth? no? ok, worth 18 million/yr. Period. Much less when they're 39 which is what he'll be if he manages to make it to the end of this contract.

For comparison Carlos hit .303/.354/.528 with 32 homers in his 31 year old season, his first as an Astro. Numbers he surpassed in his 32 year old season and nearly equaled in his 33 year old season before this last season. Werths 2010 numbers are nearly identical to the numbers put up by Carlos. You have baseball-reference, check it out. Werth is in better shape, sure, but where is he in three years when he still has 4 years left? I've got a guess. I love stats, but again, not sabermetrics. Those aren't stats, those are life sucking monotony taking over my beloved game of baseball. . . wanna see where sabermetrics gets you? It gets you the Mariners signing Chone Figgins. Seriously. 

Cliff Lee is another guy who won't likely live up to his contract.  Why are people so high on this guy? He's a late bloomer. He didn't have his first good season until he was 29. Prior to that he was a #5 at best, a non-tender candidate on any good team. Since then he's been an innings eater and a solid #2. I know half of you are clicking that little x in the top right, of left for the mac users, and the other half are rushing to the bottom of the page to leave horrible comments. He's not the next Nolan Ryan or Cy Young. He's an aging vet who pitches every 5 days and manages to turn it up in the post season, unless it's the WS and he's facing the Giants. Screwed the pooch there.

Living in California 2 hours from San Francisco and with my football season already over, thanks in part to a different Wade who I liked as a coordinator, but not as a head coach, but this is baseball, so back to topic. Anyways, as a fan of all things Texas living so close to San Francisco I wanted the Rangers to poung the Giants. They didn't even look like they were trying it was so ugly. Also, there is no such thing as good BBQ in California. It's burnt shoe leather with ketchup and tabasco sauce. . .

Lee is holding out for seven years, and he'll get it, but then he's 38, and probably reverting back to his pre 2008 form by the time he's 33 or 34. He's a great pitcher, but you don't pay a guy who takes the mound every 5 days a quarter of your teams salary. And you sure as hell don't pay your closer 15mil/yr, and you DAMN SURE don't go after some kid who gets anxiety and forgets how to throw the ball. . . Greinke. . . don't do it. The kid has stuff, you just don't know if you're gonna get the stuff from his arm or the stuff from the voices in his cracked little head. Not to mention he's throwing the Royals under the bus every chance he gets. Not that I blame them, short of the Bucs they're horrible, but they're not signing my pay checks and putting me through therapy every time I get a blister or an ingrown nail or I want to go hang out with my buddy Khalil Greene. I want the kid to get fixed, not for baseball, but for himself, but he shouldn't be doing it while earning top dollar and playing in the minors every other month to get away from the pressures of big league ball.

So I've trashed Greinke, Lee, and Werth, praised Wallace and Barmes, and hated on California. In 6 months I'll be hating on Nebraska then I can trash the Royals in person as their AAA affiliate is in Omaha where my wife is going to be stationed and Kansas City is close by. God I miss Texas.

Poll
Will Lee, Crawford, or Werth live up to their new contracts?
Lee will. He's Cy Young reborn.
3 votes
Crawford will. He's Willie Mays at the corners.
15 votes
Werth will. Paul O'Neill has nothing on this guy.
0 votes
They all will. These are the stars of a generation.
2 votes
Nope, they're all going to be black holes.
13 votes
Two of the three will. After all, people get paid good money to make sure these things pan out.
11 votes

44 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 18 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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With respect to Paulino…you’re right that stats don’t lie. One of the better stats for projecting future performance is Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). When Paulino was healthy and in the rotation last year, he was in the top 10 FIP among NL starting pitchers. If Paulino turns into a top of the rotation pitcher for the Rockies, don’t say some of us didn’t see it coming.

by clack on Dec 9, 2010 7:19 AM CST reply actions  

I don’t think Paulino will become a top of the rotation pitcher, but I certainly understand why people were sorry to see him go. Particularly when you consider Barnes would have been non-tendered, and there are many cheaper places to get a good defensive SS.

by seanbergmanrules on Dec 9, 2010 9:31 AM CST up reply actions  

I like Felipe. . .

and I admire what he did, working ihs ass off to earn that rotation spot last winter, but look what he got for his efforts? He’s got a lot of heart, and no quit, but as a reliever he’s horrible, and as a starter he doesn’t have the durability. As for FIP, see my coimplains on SABR, but I’ll take your word for it

We never walked on the moon. Elvis ain't dead. You ain't goin' crazy. It's all in your head.

by AstRomeo on Dec 9, 2010 6:37 PM CST up reply actions  

A little bit :)

We never walked on the moon. Elvis ain't dead. You ain't goin' crazy. It's all in your head.

by AstRomeo on Dec 9, 2010 6:35 PM CST up reply actions  

I could not care less about losing Paulino. I liked the Barmes acquisition. I never held even a sliver of hope regarding the major free agents. That said, I’m going to sit here and whine all I want. We had a shitty farm system in 2006 and we still do. Don’t take 2 shots in the dark in the rule 5 draft and sign a pitcher who was so bad last year that even Seattle saw no use for him and then tell me the rotation is secure as a result. The team’s 4 best players consist of a lazy, 35 year old outfielder who has an unmovable contract and Wandy, Pence, and Bourn, whom I love, but are not superstars by any means and aren’t even signed beyond this year. Instead of genuinely making major league moves with the future in mind, they’ve gotten the Jeff Keppinger, Brandon Lyon, Pedro Feliz’s of the world; plugs to simply get by for one of two years. Forgive me if all of this makes me cynical.

by roswalt44 on Dec 9, 2010 12:49 PM CST reply actions  

roswalt44

don’t you play for the phillies now?

by GhostOfGlennDavis on Dec 9, 2010 12:56 PM CST up reply actions  

-Agree about Paulino; good riddance.
-Agree about major FAs.
-The farm is not that bad now. It’s average at worst. The last 3 drafts and major int’l signings have elevated it dramatically from 2006.
-The rotation may not be secure at #5, but 1-4 are solid. The bullpen is strong. The offense, while still probably weak, doesn’t have a single player who could be described as “horrible”.
-I hate Carlos Lee too.
-Pence is under team control through 2013 and Bourn is through 2012.
-Who would you put at 2B? Jimmy Paredes? Even during a rebuilding process, you have to field a viable product. Keppinger is a great rep for the game and a solid player.

The astros have a competitive roster, an improving farm, and room in future payrolls to add big peices. I"m excited. Are there things to bitch about? Sure(, namely Carlos Lee’s contract, ignoring the farm in ‘06 and ’07, and not acquiring young infielders via trade and/or Rule 5). But overall, I’m please with the 2011 roster (so far) and think the future is bright.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 9, 2010 1:15 PM CST up reply actions  

am i one of the few people who liked Paulino? I’m fine with the Paulino-Barmes swap, but hopefully we can pick Paulino back up if/when they place him on waivers.

But I really just wish we were more active on the trade front right now. SD and TB swapped some releivers for Bartlett? Man… howd we miss out on that?

by GhostOfGlennDavis on Dec 9, 2010 1:37 PM CST up reply actions  

-Aside from Lyles and Castro, virtually all of our talent is in the lower ranks. Given how many guys never even make it past AA, let alone into the Major Leagues, I’m hardly comforted in what we have. As much as I like what Bobby Heck is doing, it doesn’t mean anything to me until it starts showing at the Major League level.

-1-4 are solid but hardly wonderful. For all we know Brett Myers crashes next year. Maybe last year was a fluke? I sure as hell hope not and I’m not trying to insinuate that I think he will, but it’s a possibility. Wandy and Happ have been inconsistent their whole career. Norris is as bipolar of a pitcher as I’ve seen. I have optimism regarding them but I’m not feeling very safe with it, either.

- They are under team control, true, but is the idea that arguably our 3 best players are going on year-by-year contracts not frightening? Almost every other team is locking up their talent.

-I have no problem with Keppinger specifically. In fact, when everyone here was pulling a Chicken Little when we got rid of Drew Sutton for him, I was one of the people applauding the trade. I’m complaining about the overall concept of sticking 1-2 year plugs into the lineup, as we have been doing for like 5 years now. I’m all for adding pieces for a “viable” product and a somewhat competitive team. My complaint is that we’ve been building whole rosters out of them for the past 5 years.

We are competitive for sure, in that we are not the Pirates, Royals, etc. This is not even close to the worst team. We’re still a longshot to compete, though. Our farm system is improving, but that’s only because it couldn’t have gotten much worse. Majority of teams still have superior farm systems. I have no problems with what Wade and Heck are specifically doing. It’s that given the past 5 years, the Astros have earned no benefit of the doubt. I’m a New York Giants fan, and even though our GM has done some things I thought were crazy, he’s earned the benefit of the doubt from most fans. I have no reason to likewise assume the best for the Astros. I don’t care how much Bobby Heck (whom I love) tells us about how exciting our talent is in the farm system. I’ll believe it when I see it.

by roswalt44 on Dec 9, 2010 2:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Astros Prospects who ended last season at AA or higher and profile as MLB players:

Position Players:
Jason Castro (starting Catcher)
Brett Wallace (starting 1B)
Brian Bogusevic (reserve OF)
Jack Shuck (reserve OF)
Ben Heath (1B/Catcher)
Koby CLemens (utility power bat)
JD Martinez (starting LF)

Pitchers:
Jordan Lyles (#2 SP)
Mark Melancon (Setup Man)
Henry Villar (RP)
Danny Meszaros (RP)
Dallas Keuchel (#4 SP)
Matt Nevarez (RP)
Arcenio Leon (RP)
Chia Jen Lo (Setup Man)

by Snake Diggity on Dec 9, 2010 3:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Pretty meh. I love Castro but he’s no Joe Mauer. I’ll give you Lyles. After that, we have a bunch of relievers and utility guys; if they even make it. I have no problem with Melancon, Keuchel, Clemens individually; it’s that they are among the best of what we have. It’s way too early to give assurance that Wallace will be starting material, let alone JD Martinez. I’m not sure how that list is supposed to make me feel better.

by roswalt44 on Dec 9, 2010 3:58 PM CST reply actions  

Compare that list to who was in the upper levels in ‘06-’09 and you should feel better. If not, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s not true, it just means you don’t want to believe it.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 9, 2010 5:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Agree.

Our farm system is getting a lot better, and this last draft was really good, hopefully enough of these guys work out, and while I don’t follow much college ball and NO high school ball, at least for baseball, I can’t swear by it but I’ve heard next years draft will be a monster, generation defining draft.

However, being excited for the future doesn’t mean I don’t think we can contend this year. We saw some pieces come together, hopefully we’ll see some more pieces get comfortable in their roles, ie wallace and castro, and I think we’re a legitimate threat. Not on par with the Cards, Yanks, or Phils, but still, we’ve got some young guys who have not only heart, but a little talent behind it too. Hope good things, at least until June :)

We never walked on the moon. Elvis ain't dead. You ain't goin' crazy. It's all in your head.

by AstRomeo on Dec 9, 2010 6:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Again, how could it have gotten any worse? I don’t care how we compare to 06-09. I care how we compare to the rest of the MLB. Most third parties think we’re at the bottom of the league, improvements or not.

by roswalt44 on Dec 9, 2010 6:32 PM CST reply actions  

most third parties thought the Seattle Mariners were going to be good this year.

by Timothy De Block on Dec 13, 2010 7:29 AM CST up reply actions  

I remember everyone being high on the Mariners but then whatever the website is that has the projected results for the upcoming season still had them in dead last despite Figgins, Lee, and Bradley.

The Mariners always seem to get over rated. Maybe it’s because I always want to root for them but then they are always so painful to watch that I can’t follow them. And everyone I know in Seattle buys into whatever hype is coming from their PR people.

by ntn on Dec 14, 2010 1:32 AM CST up reply actions  

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